Hobart stadium business case

[Saucery]

Tasmania has had money before this yeah? It’s naive to think that money not spent on the stadium will be spent on hospitals. The same funding model that let key areas like health get chronically underfunded will continue stadium or not.

No Tasmania is 3 billion dollars in debt, the servicing of that debt is huge for a population of 500,000 (that's $6000 per person and only about half could possibly find that), along with the lowest GDP in the nation by far.

We have no financial or IT industries, little mining, manufacturing or heavy industries and some forestry. It's 90% agriculture.

Everyone from the mainland just thinks our economy functions the same as theirs, it couldn't be further from the truth. I know how much you guys out west love to be told by the eastern states what's best for you.

I never said that money will get spent on hospitals or any community services (which the state government has already said will need cutbacks to try and dig itself out of this current mess), I said there are more pressing issues than a roof on a sports stadium.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Tasmania has had money before this yeah? It’s naive to think that money not spent on the stadium will be spent on hospitals. The same funding model that let key areas like health get chronically underfunded will continue stadium or not.

No. Not since the gold rush. Tasmania is an entirely regional economy. Take Adelaide's economic base out of South Australia, and that's what you're left with, just over a smaller area.

The second part is true, but crippling state finances even further just makes it even harder for a future hypothetical competent government to fund essential services. (Very hypothetical, even by government standards Tasmania generally produces either the most corrupt or incompetent in the nation - despite having the best electoral system.)

 

[shintemaster]

Why not? It's unnecessary, costly for a state that's heavily in debt and has the lowest GDP in the nation by far. All of this blow out will have to be paid for by the state or private enterprise, and they will want a nice return on any investment. Not sure why it will 100% happen later anyway. I think, from memory, it needs to be incorporated from the outset or it just becomes impractical. 1 billion for a sports stadium in Hobart while in the north the largest hospital up here has no air conditioning for mostly elderly patients. There's much more important things need investment in here beyond a roof for a sports stadium.

'Extremely uncomfortable': Patients in 'aging hospital' swelter without air con

Patients in some Launceston General Hospital wards have had to use wet face washers and take off blankets to try to stay cool due to a lack of air conditioning, a family member says.

www.abc.net.au

It's an insane amount of money for a stadium in the smallest state in the country (economically, demographics etc). Perth Stadium was what $1.5B or so all up and has 2 teams cranking money in every week of the season plus a huge economy driving it. Docklands in Melbourne has a huge number of potential games in a year.

The reality is that the only reason the AFL put this condition on the stadium is that they thought it would never get traction and it wouldn't be their fault or some Government/s would be insane enough to cough up the cash and it also wouldn't be their issue.

 

[Saucery]

It's an insane amount of money for a stadium in the smallest state in the country (economically, demographics etc). Perth Stadium was what $1.5B or so all up and has 2 teams cranking money in every week of the season plus a huge economy driving it. Docklands in Melbourne has a huge number of potential games in a year.

The reality is that the only reason the AFL put this condition on the stadium is that they thought it would never get traction and it wouldn't be their fault or some Government/s would be insane enough to cough up the cash and it also wouldn't be their issue.

I actually think the absurd specifications were all part of a vain legacy project of two soon to be gone heavyweights, Gillion and Gutwein. All throughout history leaders want to be remembered through something big they built.

 

[shintemaster]

I actually think the absurd specifications were all part of a vain legacy project of two soon to gone heavyweights, Gillion and Gutwein. All throughout history leaders want to be remembered through something big they built.

They can't lose - it's not their money. If Tas / Feds - whoever - front up the cash and it works great, they're the heroes that built a long wanted Tasmanian team. It's win / win for AFL people, easy to spend other people's money. If Tas can't get the support / funding (or won't) then they're not the bad guys that prevented a Tasmanian team.

 

[Saucery]

They can't lose - it's not their money. If Tas / Feds - whoever - front up the cash and it works great, they're the heroes that built a long wanted Tasmanian team. It's win / win for AFL people, easy to spend other people's money. If Tas can't get the support / funding (or won't) then they're not the bad guys that prevented a Tasmanian team.

And while we are at it lets build a monorail which connects the stadium to the Mt Wellington cable car!

 

[Saucery]

Why not? It's unnecessary, costly for a state that's heavily in debt and has the lowest GDP in the nation by far. All of this blow out will have to be paid for by the state or private enterprise, and they will want a nice return on any investment. Not sure why it will 100% happen later anyway. I think, from memory, it needs to be incorporated from the outset or it just becomes impractical. 1 billion for a sports stadium in Hobart while in the north the largest hospital up here has no air conditioning for mostly elderly patients. There's much more important things need investment in here beyond a roof for a sports stadium.

'Extremely uncomfortable': Patients in 'aging hospital' swelter without air con

Patients in some Launceston General Hospital wards have had to use wet face washers and take off blankets to try to stay cool due to a lack of air conditioning, a family member says.

www.abc.net.au

"We have upgraded [air-conditioning] significantly over the course of the last number of years and will continue to do so," Mr Rockliff said.

Apparently, this amounts to giving out zooperdoopers.

Ice treats given to patients, staff as hospital grapples with aircon fix

With room temperatures reportedly reaching around 30 degrees inside the Launceston General Hospital, staff and patients have been given frozen treats to help them cope because of inadequate air-conditioning.

www.abc.net.au

But we must make sure footy fans don't get cold or wet, the stadium roof before the hospitals, am I right?

 

[BomberManU]

Took this from the other stadium thread. Have thought this all along, will be very surprised if it gets up. As kids, all we wanted was an AFL team, but I don't think it's going to happen this time round.
From member 'Ratdweller':

"And the AFL contribution will be a mighty $15 million. It would be a different story if they were being asked to stump up some cash for NSW or QLD. Let's face it, and acknowledge the Elephant in the room, which is that the AFL were never seriously keen on a Tassie team in the first place. It's only my opinion, but I do believe that the insistence of a roof was always about ensuring that the costs and conditions associated with establishing a team there would be too prohibitive from the outset. If the whole thing falls over before 2028, the AFL will probably be popping champagne corks at their Melbourne HQ."

 

[Canberra Pear]

Took this from the other stadium thread. Have thought this all along, will be very surprised if it gets up. As kids, all we wanted was an AFL team, but I don't think it's going to happen this time round.
From member 'Ratdweller':

"And the AFL contribution will be a mighty $15 million. It would be a different story if they were being asked to stump up some cash for NSW or QLD. Let's face it, and acknowledge the Elephant in the room, which is that the AFL were never seriously keen on a Tassie team in the first place. It's only my opinion, but I do believe that the insistence of a roof was always about ensuring that the costs and conditions associated with establishing a team there would be too prohibitive from the outset. If the whole thing falls over before 2028, the AFL will probably be popping champagne corks at their Melbourne HQ."

I agree that the AFL were never that keen on a Tasmanian team, but they contributed $10m each to the Suns' and Giants' stadiums.

Pretty on par with the Hobart contribution.

 

[footyscribe]

Took this from the other stadium thread. Have thought this all along, will be very surprised if it gets up. As kids, all we wanted was an AFL team, but I don't think it's going to happen this time round.
From member 'Ratdweller':

"And the AFL contribution will be a mighty $15 million. It would be a different story if they were being asked to stump up some cash for NSW or QLD. Let's face it, and acknowledge the Elephant in the room, which is that the AFL were never seriously keen on a Tassie team in the first place. It's only my opinion, but I do believe that the insistence of a roof was always about ensuring that the costs and conditions associated with establishing a team there would be too prohibitive from the outset. If the whole thing falls over before 2028, the AFL will probably be popping champagne corks at their Melbourne HQ."

$15m + $10m (for the Tas HPC) is as much money as the AFL has ever put into any stadium, including GWS and Gold Coast when they entered the competition.

They then agreed to fund the team, game development and grassroots football in Tasmania to the tune of $360m.

In all its a $385m spend from the AFL, as well as the granting of standalone AFL, AFLW and VFL licenses

Tasmania’s end of the bargain was to essentially match the money via building its club an appropriate stadium and high performance centre, and partially fund the team via sponsorship in lieu of funding Hawthorn and North Melbourne.

The third party is the Feds with $240m and the fourth party is the private sector.

Sure, a roof may seem an extravagance but to make the spend worth it, the venue has to 100% be able to be used for other purposes outside football and the roof allows that.

Also, the decision was never up to the AFL, it was ultimately down to the club presidents who had to unanimously vote Tasmania in, which they did. The exec/Gillon even actively encouraged them to do so.

 

[Saucery]

They then agreed to fund the team, game development and grassroots football in Tasmania to the tune of $360m.

In all its a $385m spend from the AFL, as well as the granting of standalone AFL, AFLW and VFL licenses

Tasmania’s end of the bargain was to essentially match the money via building its club an appropriate stadium and high performance centre, and partially fund the team via sponsorship in lieu of funding Hawthorn and North Melbourne.

The third party is the Feds with $240m and the fourth party is the private sector.

Sure, a roof may seem an extravagance but to make the spend worth it, the venue has to 100% be able to be used for other purposes outside football and the roof allows that.

Also, the decision was never up to the AFL, it was ultimately down to the club presidents who had to unanimously vote Tasmania in, which they did. The exec/Gillon even actively encouraged them to do so.

Yes with a roof the stadium definitely has other uses, but what? Maybe a bit of extra cricket.

No big acts will venture down, they would have to get their dozen odd containers loaded onto a ferry in Geelong and sent to Devonport to be unloaded. Then driven to Hobart and back again, reloaded onto a ferry and back to Geelong to be unloaded.

The airports here can't take cargo planes that can carry container loads, both Launceston and Hobart are relatively small, domestic airports. So, any containers would have to be stripped, the gear put on in smaller pallet cons (that's if it even fits) and then sent. Unloaded here, reloaded after the event, sent back to the mainland and decanted back into trucking containers. On top of the cost of airfreight, which is extortionate, it's all just more time and money that needs to be spent.

So about 50 hours of travel, doing nothing, plus massive shipping costs (Victoria has been screwing us over freight cost since forever, it's a bit better now we ship to Geelong rather than Port Melbourne but still ridiculous, but what other choice do we have)? When big acts can just play an extra date somewhere on the mainland why go to all the trouble?. Even Newcastle has the same population as Tasmania, without the north/south divide or freight on-costs.

A bespoke stadium can't fix that. At a cost of around $270 million (including upkeep) on original estimates the roof alone represents around a third of the sunk costs of the stadium.

Mainlanders have no idea how much sea freight costs and times affect this state, in both directions. We call it the Tassie Tax.

 

[Mr Q]

Sure, a roof may seem an extravagance but to make the spend worth it, the venue has to 100% be able to be used for other purposes outside football and the roof allows that.

Hobart is a city of 250,000 people, not a city of millions. The only use for this stadium will be the footy (and got to remember some games would be in Launceston) and cricket. So maybe 15 events a year, 20 tops. And at that, Hobart is probably not big enough to truly sell out all that.

So the roof's main function would be to stop cricket being rained out.

Stadium concerts won't be going to Hobart - the crowd isn't big enough, and the logistics are difficult. A lot of acts skip Perth on the back of that, and Perth is eight times the size and on the mainland.

And that brings you to the best comparison stadium - in Perth. Perth has 22 AFL games a year minimum, while Hobart will likely have 7-8. Perth also has a BBL team, and is also more appealing for international cricket because of the possible game sizes. Plus Perth has enough people to attract occasional Wallabies games, or State of Origin, soccer internationals etc. And despite the logistics more concerts than Hobart will ever get (WA also had a lot more money to work with in terms of getting the stadium built).

And sadly, Hobart doesn't have the money to sustain it. Even if you could convince a stadium concert tour to go there, the ability for 40K people in Hobart to afford it against 50K in Adelaide or 65K in Perth - well I know which of them are the better bets.

If the AFL was honest about all this, they'd have shovelled $15M into upgrading Bellerive - it's after all been considered up to scratch for AFL games for 30 years, and won't cost the Tassie people a metric shittonne to build.

 

[footyscribe]

Yes with a roof the stadium definitely has other uses, but what? Maybe a bit of extra cricket.

No big acts will venture down, they would have to get their dozen odd containers loaded onto a ferry in Geelong and sent to Devonport to be unloaded. Then driven to Hobart and back again, reloaded onto a ferry and back to Geelong to be unloaded.

The airports here can't take cargo planes that can carry container loads, both Launceston and Hobart are relatively small, domestic airports. So, any containers would have to be stripped, the gear put on in smaller pallet cons (that's if it even fits) and then sent. Unloaded here, reloaded after the event, sent back to the mainland and decanted back into trucking containers. On top of the cost of airfreight, which is extortionate, it's all just more time and money that needs to be spent.

So about 50 hours of travel, doing nothing, plus massive shipping costs (Victoria has been screwing us over freight cost since forever, it's a bit better now we ship to Geelong rather than Port Melbourne but still ridiculous, but what other choice do we have)? When big acts can just play an extra date somewhere on the mainland why go to all the trouble?. Even Newcastle has the same population as Tasmania, without the north/south divide or freight on-costs.

A bespoke stadium can't fix that. At a cost of around $270 million (including upkeep) on original estimates the roof alone represents around a third of the sunk costs of the stadium.

Mainlanders have no idea how much sea freight costs and times affect this state, in both directions. We call it the Tassie Tax.

I spose the boss of TEG, one of the biggest promoters on the planet was just lying when he said he’d happily bring Iron Maiden to Hobart and that the venue would absolutely attract acts

Entertainment boss says Hobart stadium could ‘easily’ attract 15,000 concertgoers

‘I have every confidence. We’ll back ourselves and we’ll bring stuff to the new stadium’…

pulsetasmania.com.au

The event schedule modelling allows for 1 major concert per year which is far from crazy, and a handful of smaller shows

Is there a source for your $270m cost for the roof? Its closer to $190m

 

[footyscribe]

Hobart is a city of 250,000 people, not a city of millions. The only use for this stadium will be the footy (and got to remember some games would be in Launceston) and cricket. So maybe 15 events a year, 20 tops. And at that, Hobart is probably not big enough to truly sell out all that.

So the roof's main function would be to stop cricket being rained out.

Stadium concerts won't be going to Hobart - the crowd isn't big enough, and the logistics are difficult. A lot of acts skip Perth on the back of that, and Perth is eight times the size and on the mainland.

And that brings you to the best comparison stadium - in Perth. Perth has 22 AFL games a year minimum, while Hobart will likely have 7-8. Perth also has a BBL team, and is also more appealing for international cricket because of the possible game sizes. Plus Perth has enough people to attract occasional Wallabies games, or State of Origin, soccer internationals etc. And despite the logistics more concerts than Hobart will ever get (WA also had a lot more money to work with in terms of getting the stadium built).

And sadly, Hobart doesn't have the money to sustain it. Even if you could convince a stadium concert tour to go there, the ability for 40K people in Hobart to afford it against 50K in Adelaide or 65K in Perth - well I know which of them are the better bets.

If the AFL was honest about all this, they'd have shovelled $15M into upgrading Bellerive - it's after all been considered up to scratch for AFL games for 30 years, and won't cost the Tassie people a metric shittonne to build.

You sounded half intelligent until you suggested upgrading Bellerive.

Firstly, Hobart stadium is 1/3 the size of Perths stadium and the state government contribution is capped at $375m. There’s federal funding of $240m and market sounding recently completed for a private partner.

Nobody is expecting Taylor Swift to come to Hobart, but 1 major concert which has been modelled is absolutely achievable, especially with an event acquisition fund which has also been factored into recent costings.

And on Bellerive: It’s only hosted AFL fixtures since 2011, not for 30 years lol. It has 10,000 seats and cannot be expanded in any meaningful way because it is bordered by three residential streets and a beach.

 

[Saucery]

I spose the boss of TEG, one of the biggest promoters on the planet was just lying when he said he’d happily bring Iron Maiden to Hobart and that the venue would absolutely attract acts

Entertainment boss says Hobart stadium could ‘easily’ attract 15,000 concertgoers

‘I have every confidence. We’ll back ourselves and we’ll bring stuff to the new stadium’…

pulsetasmania.com.au

The event schedule modelling allows for 1 major concert per year which is far from crazy, and a handful of smaller shows

Is there a source for your $270m cost for the roof? Its closer to $190m

Iron Maiden? LMFAO. They weren't even considered a big act back in the 80's. I was well into metal then, had my studded denim jacket covered in patches.

"Construction of the roof itself is estimated to be $207 million."

PLUS

"$62 million in upkeep and maintenance for the translucent roof."

Detailed upkeep costs for Hobart's proposed stadium revealed

The ABC has obtained a more detailed cost estimate for the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, including the initial and ongoing cost for the AFL's required translucent roof.

www.abc.net.au

So where's your sauce for $190? Pulse Tasmania I guess lol.

"Pulse Tasmania is a digital news publisher owned by Pulse Media Group Pty Ltd based in Hobart, Australia."

Pulse Tasmania - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Conflict of interest written all over it.

Does it include maintenance costs just for the roof explicitly?

No?

 

[Saucery]

You sounded half intelligent until you suggested upgrading Bellerive.

Firstly, Hobart stadium is 1/3 the size of Perths stadium and the state government contribution is capped at $375m. There’s federal funding of $240m and market sounding recently completed for a private partner.

Nobody is expecting Taylor Swift to come to Hobart, but 1 major concert which has been modelled is absolutely achievable, especially with an event acquisition fund which has also been factored into recent costings.

And on Bellerive: It’s only hosted AFL fixtures since 2011, not for 30 years lol. It has 10,000 seats and cannot be expanded in any meaningful way because it is bordered by three residential streets and a beach.

One major event is not worth the $270 million dollar cost for the roof, and we will have to pay into an 'event acquisition fund' to attract such a venture. It just gets better and better.

 

[footyscribe]

Iron Maiden? LMFAO. They weren't even considered a big act back in the 80's. I was well into metal then, had my studded denim jacket covered in patches.

"Construction of the roof itself is estimated to be $207 million."

PLUS

"$62 million in upkeep and maintenance for the translucent roof."

Detailed upkeep costs for Hobart's proposed stadium revealed

The ABC has obtained a more detailed cost estimate for the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, including the initial and ongoing cost for the AFL's required translucent roof.

www.abc.net.au

So where's your sauce for $190?

Does it include maintenance costs just for the roof explicitly?

No?

$207m is closer to $190m than it is to $270m is it not?

The $62m in maintenance is over 30 years lol so $2m a year.

Remember, Dr Gruens analysis found the stadiums BCR would actually be worse without the roof.

And don’t underestimate Tasmanians love for 1980s **** rock

 

[footyscribe]

Iron Maiden? LMFAO. They weren't even considered a big act back in the 80's. I was well into metal then, had my studded denim jacket covered in patches.

"Construction of the roof itself is estimated to be $207 million."

PLUS

"$62 million in upkeep and maintenance for the translucent roof."

Detailed upkeep costs for Hobart's proposed stadium revealed

The ABC has obtained a more detailed cost estimate for the proposed Macquarie Point stadium, including the initial and ongoing cost for the AFL's required translucent roof.

www.abc.net.au

So where's your sauce for $190? Pulse Tasmania I guess lol.

"Pulse Tasmania is a digital news publisher owned by Pulse Media Group Pty Ltd based in Hobart, Australia."

Pulse Tasmania - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Conflict of interest written all over it.

Does it include maintenance costs just for the roof explicitly?

No?

Good lord.

Here’s the Mercury

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/you-dont-need-taylor-swift-says-leading-stadium-player-geoff-jones-who-likes-what-he-sees-under-macquarie-point-roof/news-story/cf76bdae7e35dc85860d22b3cfda39e0

And the ABC reporting the same thing

Hobart AFL stadium render shows what concerts will look like — but will the acts come to Tasmania? - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

 

[Saucery]

$207m is closer to $190m than it is to $270m is it not?

The $62m in maintenance is over 30 years lol so $2m a year.

Remember, Dr Gruens analysis found the stadiums BCR would actually be worse without the roof.

And don’t underestimate Tasmanians love for 1980s **** rock

Do you fail to see I live here, and if you build the roof then the maintenance costs come with it, you get that right? No roof no maintenance. And you didn't provide your $190 million sauce so it's just a number you picked out of your head then, right?

And to call Iron Maiden 1980's rock is somewhat true but gee name one hit other than run to the hills, metal is not rock and most Tasmanians love country not rock if you lived here you would know this. But you keep trying, you will get something right eventually.

 

[Saucery]

Good lord.

Here’s the Mercury

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/you-dont-need-taylor-swift-says-leading-stadium-player-geoff-jones-who-likes-what-he-sees-under-macquarie-point-roof/news-story/cf76bdae7e35dc85860d22b3cfda39e0

And the ABC reporting the same thing

Hobart AFL stadium render shows what concerts will look like — but will the acts come to Tasmania? - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

Can't read the links, can you post the relevant parts?

 

[footyscribe]

Do you fail to see I live here, and if you build the roof then the maintenance costs come with it, you get that right? No roof no maintenance. And you didn't provide your $190 million sauce so it's just a number you picked out of your head then, right?

And to call Iron Maiden 1980's rock is somewhat true but gee name one hit other than run to the hills, metal is not rock and most Tasmanians love country not rock, if you lived here, you would get this. But you keep trying, you will get something right eventually.

Here’s the source for $190m

Hobart's Macquarie Point stadium project cost increases to $775 million as planning documents submitted - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

I said it was closer to $190m than $270m which is true at $207m

Of course there is maintenance costs, but again, it’s a worse idea to build without a roof than with one, which even the comically harsh Dr Gruen agrees with.

And you lack a sense of humour regarding Tasmanian tastes in music, but that’s on me for expecting a northerner to have a laugh.

 

[Saucery]

Here’s the source for $190m

Hobart's Macquarie Point stadium project cost increases to $775 million as planning documents submitted - ABC News

amp.abc.net.au

I said it was closer to $190m than $270m which is true at $207m

Of course there is maintenance costs, but again, it’s a worse idea to build without a roof than with one, which even the comically harsh Dr Gruen agrees with.

And you lack a sense of humour regarding Tasmanian tastes in music, but that’s on me for expecting a northerner to have a laugh.

"but that’s on me for expecting a northerner to have a laugh."

So you were having a laugh? OK that's reasonable.

 

[footyscribe]

Can't read the links, can you post the relevant parts?

The Mercury article is paywalls but the ABC article is accessible via that link.

Phil Collins, Queen, Fred Again' likely, promoter says​

Geoff Jones, the chief executive officer of music management and promotion group TEG, said the stadium "puts Hobart in the game".

"At the moment, when you look to schedule a concert run you think of five-mainland capital cities," Mr Jones said.

"This stadium, with a roof, makes it bulletproof and puts Tasmania and Hobart on that agenda."
Mr Jones said he expected artists such as Phil Collins, Queen, Fred again and Adam Lambert to be booked, but conceded the stadium would not be big enough to host bigger acts such as AC/DC.

He said building live music infrastructure into the stadium's design, such as a stage and lighting, would lower costs and make it a more attractive location for artists to play.

"If you bring content to a place like Tasmania that's oftentimes starved of premium content, people will come," Mr Jones said.

"I don't think it's unrealistic to say there'll be eight to 10 [acts] a year."

 

[footyscribe]

"but that’s on me for expecting a northerner to have a laugh."

So you were having a laugh? OK that's reasonable.

I am Tasmanian, and live in Tasmania. Anything from the 80s remains popular here!

 

[Mr Q]

And on Bellerive: It’s only hosted AFL fixtures since 2011, not for 30 years lol. It has 10,000 seats and cannot be expanded in any meaningful way because it is bordered by three residential streets and a beach.

Apparently Bellerive's capacity right now is 20,000 (not 10,000 as you implied there) - and the proposed stadium is only going to be 27,000. So not exactly a huge capacity upgrade for the ridiculous costs. And if you think the initial estimations will be the final cost, then I've got a few bridges to sell you. The numbers suggested are some 80% of the initial projections 10 years back for Optus. For half the size, and likely at best half the utilisation.

(I have seen reference of a proposed upgrade of Bellerive to 27K, but nothing more than someone proposed it so can't say if it was practical or not, or cost acceptable)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellerive_Oval :