Universal Love Holding Faith in Stephen Wells and Mackie (a.k.a. "In Wells We Trust")

[MC Extra Dollop]

And completely inconsistent with last year's push.

That's the thing that concerns me, I think. The inconsistency. It feels like around the 2012-13 period, we had promising young talent, but many of them that were on the fringes didn't get enough opportunities to play, because we played our older veterans come hell or high water (look at the games that these players clocked up over those years, as opposed to 2011, where it was clearly a strategy to have a continued rotation, even though there was an additional bye).

Then we didn't know what we had with the likes of Brown, Walker, Simpson, Hunt, Bews, Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Murdoch, Hamling, Kersten and others (along with the permanently injured Vardy, Menzel, McCarthy and Cowan) because they hadn't had enough senior exposure. So we re-signed a lot of the younger players, in case they turned out to be good. But we didn't know whether they were any good or not. So we brought in more 'solid' retreads from other clubs as an insurance policy in case the younger players didn't pan out. Only the veterans were better than the younger players now and we were pushing for finals/top 4, so the oldies got the games. The younger players still weren't getting games, or they were playing sporadically, so they were traded out for practically nothing and we had years of fruitless development to show for our investment.

Now the veterans are leaving (or they're being nudged out the door) and younger players are getting opportunities, but it turns out that they're up and down, or not as good as we thought and it's hard to see anyone younger than 26 on this list that is a future Geelong captain. So we're in trouble, because it's now clear that we have one of the worst - if not the worst - contingent of 25 and under players in the league, some of them have been signed to perplexing contracts and we're not even putting a priority on hitting the next couple of drafts early and often. Our haul from the past five or so drafts looks worryingly Melbourne-esque to me: players that looked better in year one than they did in year four in the AFL. And it was because the list management team didn't make a firm decision on what these younger players were. They had a bit each way.

I think it's a similar story with the long-term ruck and second key forward problems. We've had no shortage of options. But the priority that we've placed on being flexible and having multiple options has allowed the club to get away with not making a firm decision and sticking with it. We'll take Mitch Clark and acknowledge that he's a risk (I still think it was worth it: you can't win them all), but it's ok, if he doesn't pan out, because we've got Vardy. And if he doesn't get on the park, we've got Walker. And if he doesn't develop, we've got Kersten. And so on and so on. It doesn't do anything to build a bit of confidence in these younger players.

Look at the ruck. In my opinion, the times when it's looked the most solid, post-Ottens is this year and a brief period in 2013, when Dawson Simpson looked like he could be developing into something special (this happened, I swear. He was running around, jumping, taking pack marks and everything). And with both Simpson and Zac Smith, the message was clear "The #1 ruck spot is yours. So go out there, play with confidence and don't worry, because we can't drop you, even if we wanted to." And the confidence that that gave them allowed them to flourish and give us a fighting chance at the stoppages. Simpson broke his leg late in the 2013 H&A season and it may have cost us a flag (I'm serious). Then, because he was injury prone, we traded for Hamish McIntosh and it became unclear who was #1, so of course, Simpson lost all of his confidence and you quickly wondered where that running, pack marking animal went or forgot that he briefly existed.

There comes a time when you have to back your younger players in, because you're confident that they have what it takes. But we've been reluctant to do that, presumably because we haven't been certain that they do have what it takes for a long time.

 

[year of the cat]

I'm starting an extension on my house this weekend.

Will need the space for all the young apprentices I sense will be knocking on the door.

Have I found myself in a sect?

 

[Hamingja]

Honestly if they trade in Black for more than a token pick that they have been given for Kersten etc it would be the cherry on top.

 

[BUSTER29]

Honestly if they trade in Black for more than a token pick that they have been given for Kersten etc it would be the cherry on top.

I think we gave the pick for Kersten to Carlton aswell

 

[Sttew]

I think with the Caddy deal, Josh must have demanded a trade late after being persuaded by Prestia. I can't see why else we would have taken such a firm stance with him in the Deledio deal then just caved for pick 24. Something must have changed there.

But sounds like Deledio was never affordable given the huge salary he is on. he would have been higher paid than Selwood

 

[Hamingja]

I think we gave the pick for Kersten to Carlton aswell

Yeah I know, I just meant in that range. 24, 38, 42 are all too much for Black but watch one of them go to North for him.

 

[Partridge]

Look at the ruck. In my opinion, the times when it's looked the most solid, post-Ottens is this year and a brief period in 2013, when Dawson Simpson looked like he could be developing into something special (this happened, I swear. He was running around, jumping, taking pack marks and everything). And with both Simpson and Zac Smith, the message was clear "The #1 ruck spot is yours. So go out there, play with confidence and don't worry, because we can't drop you, even if we wanted to." And the confidence that that gave them allowed them to flourish and give us a fighting chance at the stoppages. Simpson broke his leg late in the 2013 H&A season and it may have cost us a flag (I'm serious). Then, because he was injury prone, we traded for Hamish McIntosh and it became unclear who was #1, so of course, Simpson lost all of his confidence and you quickly wondered where that running, pack marking animal went or forgot that he briefly existed.

Excellent post as usual, one very minor quibble. McIntosh was already there in 2013; we drafted him in 2012 with Rivers. Agree completely about what happened when McIntosh became preferred in 2014.

There comes a time when you have to back your younger players in, because you're confident that they have what it takes. But we've been reluctant to do that, presumably because we haven't been certain that they do have what it takes for a long time.

The supreme irony in this, is that OUR PRESENT COACH actually did this at Geelong. I can even give you the game: Round 17 versus Brisbane, 2011.

We had two critical inclusions - Tom Hawkins and Trent West. West had not played a senior game up to that point for the season, but he was promoted. And retained. Ended up playing solid but effective footy supporting Ottens and helped us win a premiership.

For Hawkins, it was even more significant. He'd been kinda sorta for 5 years, had played plenty of games, but had missed some along the way. Critically, he was recalled, and like West, kept there. The really critical part was in the finals Scott did something he simply won't do now - he preferred a young and relatively unproven player (Hawkins was 23 at the time), to the far more experienced Cameron Mooney - for finals football. The result of course was that Hawkins confidence grew and grew to the point he starred against both Hawthorn and West Coast, and then tore Collingwood up in the second half of the Grand Final.

For whatever reason, we don't seem to be willing to take chances on players like this anymore. It's incredibly scattergun. And incredibly frustrating.

 

[BUSTER29]

Yeah I know, I just meant in that range. 24, 38, 42 are all too much for Black but watch one of them go to North for him.

I dont disagree.

 

[kicksome]

we never really picked up these stop-gap type players in the draft before scott came along.
just ottens?
just sayin.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

we never really picked up these stop-gap type players in the draft before scott came along.
just ottens?
just sayin.

Mitchell white, Jason mooney, Simon Arnott, Scott Bamford, murphy.
There's been plenty.

 

[Partridge]

Have I found myself in a sect?

It is of no concern. Soon the rebellion will be crushed and you will be one of us.

 

[Partridge]

we never really picked up these stop-gap type players in the draft before scott came along.
just ottens?
just sayin.

Thompson did it very early, and after especially Murphy and White vowed to not do it unless something pretty special was available. In his case the Ottens deal (kind of similar to the Dangerfield deal I guess). But after about 2001, Thompson didn't do many trades and certainly didn't throw away early picks like now.

 

[Turbo911]

I see a big problem in that the players we do draft in don't seem to improve greatly after being drafted

 

[sauron256]

it is of no concern. Soon the rebellion will be crushed and you will be one of us.

Geelong unveiling a fully operational battle station is the only way I'm going to end up happy with this trade period.

 

[Partridge]

I see a big problem in that the players we do draft in don't seem to improve greatly after being drafted

Probably has something to do with playing 100 metres out of position.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

If wells decides to make stupid trades such as caddy for pick 24 when he is contracted, then he BETTER get a very good player with pick 24.

If he stuffs up that draft pick then he is going to look rediculous. Has put a lot of pressure on himself to deliver with that pick.

Better have a big fish lined up with 24 that is going to develops into a great football, not another Shane kersten

 

[year of the cat]

The one big positive is that we won't have to read that bloody awful Wells hashtag anymore.

 

[STP18]

#inwellswetrusttokeeptradingawayour1strounders

 

[SJ]

#inwellswetrusttokeeptradingawayour1strounders

Wells has taken a very strange mix in the first round in the past eight or so years anyway.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Excellent post as usual, one very minor quibble. McIntosh was already there in 2013; we drafted him in 2012 with Rivers. Agree completely about what happened when McIntosh became preferred in 2014.

The supreme irony in this, is that OUR PRESENT COACH actually did this at Geelong. I can even give you the game: Round 17 versus Brisbane, 2011.

We had two critical inclusions - Tom Hawkins and Trent West. West had not played a senior game up to that point for the season, but he was promoted. And retained. Ended up playing solid but effective footy supporting Ottens and helped us win a premiership.

For Hawkins, it was even more significant. He'd been kinda sorta for 5 years, had played plenty of games, but had missed some along the way. Critically, he was recalled, and like West, kept there. The really critical part was in the finals Scott did something he simply won't do now - he preferred a young and relatively unproven player (Hawkins was 23 at the time), to the far more experienced Cameron Mooney - for finals football. The result of course was that Hawkins confidence grew and grew to the point he starred against both Hawthorn and West Coast, and then tore Collingwood up in the second half of the Grand Final.

For whatever reason, we don't seem to be willing to take chances on players like this anymore. It's incredibly scattergun. And incredibly frustrating.

Ah, yes, that's right. McIntosh didn't play at all in 2013, due to injury. That was the year where we went into Round 1 with Trent West (straight out of surgery that week, IIRC) and some steeplechaser from the rookie list as our ruck division, heading into Round 1.

Mooney was pretty clearly done from early in 2011, but he kicked a bag or two in those mid-season poundings of Melbourne and Gold Coast and it would have been easy for them to go with the proven player, rather than the enigmatic Hawkins. It's like Chris Scott was a different coach in 2011. His constant rotations gave genuine opportunities to the likes of Brown, Vardy, Christensen, West, Duncan, Menzel, Cowan, Guthrie and Hunt. Some of those players were integral parts of the premiership and others would have been right there fighting for a spot in the 22, if injury hadn't conspired against them.

 

[Zane Taylor]

Who's going to replace them? Mackie is my guess.

I think Guthrie is a good "senior" candidate, and Cowan is an emerging WB.

 

[Seeds]

But sounds like Deledio was never affordable given the huge salary he is on. he would have been higher paid than Selwood

And yet we were in discussions to trade for him and ended up making richmonds think of caddy. Stuff up city.

 

[Sttew]

And yet we were in discussions to trade for him and ended up making richmonds think of caddy. Stuff up city.

Of the highest order

 

[Seeds]

If wells decides to make stupid trades such as caddy for pick 24 when he is contracted, then he BETTER get a very good player with pick 24.

If he stuffs up that draft pick then he is going to look rediculous. Has put a lot of pressure on himself to deliver with that pick.

Better have a big fish lined up with 24 that is going to develops into a great football, not another Shane kersten

Crap if geelong crazy is negative about something the current admin has done then this really is the four horseman moment. Time to go gorge on each other's head goo.

 

[SJ]

That's the thing that concerns me, I think. The inconsistency. It feels like around the 2012-13 period, we had promising young talent, but many of them that were on the fringes didn't get enough opportunities to play, because we played our older veterans come hell or high water (look at the games that these players clocked up over those years, as opposed to 2011, where it was clearly a strategy to have a continued rotation, even though there was an additional bye).

Then we didn't know what we had with the likes of Brown, Walker, Simpson, Hunt, Bews, Smedts, Horlin-Smith, Murdoch, Hamling, Kersten and others (along with the permanently injured Vardy, Menzel, McCarthy and Cowan) because they hadn't had enough senior exposure. So we re-signed a lot of the younger players, in case they turned out to be good. But we didn't know whether they were any good or not. So we brought in more 'solid' retreads from other clubs as an insurance policy in case the younger players didn't pan out. Only the veterans were better than the younger players now and we were pushing for finals/top 4, so the oldies got the games. The younger players still weren't getting games, or they were playing sporadically, so they were traded out for practically nothing and we had years of fruitless development to show for our investment.

Now the veterans are leaving (or they're being nudged out the door) and younger players are getting opportunities, but it turns out that they're up and down, or not as good as we thought and it's hard to see anyone younger than 26 on this list that is a future Geelong captain. So we're in trouble, because it's now clear that we have one of the worst - if not the worst - contingent of 25 and under players in the league, some of them have been signed to perplexing contracts and we're not even putting a priority on hitting the next couple of drafts early and often. Our haul from the past five or so drafts looks worryingly Melbourne-esque to me: players that looked better in year one than they did in year four in the AFL. And it was because the list management team didn't make a firm decision on what these younger players were. They had a bit each way.

I think it's a similar story with the long-term ruck and second key forward problems. We've had no shortage of options. But the priority that we've placed on being flexible and having multiple options has allowed the club to get away with not making a firm decision and sticking with it. We'll take Mitch Clark and acknowledge that he's a risk (I still think it was worth it: you can't win them all), but it's ok, if he doesn't pan out, because we've got Vardy. And if he doesn't get on the park, we've got Walker. And if he doesn't develop, we've got Kersten. And so on and so on. It doesn't do anything to build a bit of confidence in these younger players.

Look at the ruck. In my opinion, the times when it's looked the most solid, post-Ottens is this year and a brief period in 2013, when Dawson Simpson looked like he could be developing into something special (this happened, I swear. He was running around, jumping, taking pack marks and everything). And with both Simpson and Zac Smith, the message was clear "The #1 ruck spot is yours. So go out there, play with confidence and don't worry, because we can't drop you, even if we wanted to." And the confidence that that gave them allowed them to flourish and give us a fighting chance at the stoppages. Simpson broke his leg late in the 2013 H&A season and it may have cost us a flag (I'm serious). Then, because he was injury prone, we traded for Hamish McIntosh and it became unclear who was #1, so of course, Simpson lost all of his confidence and you quickly wondered where that running, pack marking animal went or forgot that he briefly existed.

There comes a time when you have to back your younger players in, because you're confident that they have what it takes. But we've been reluctant to do that, presumably because we haven't been certain that they do have what it takes for a long time.

Excellent post as usual, one very minor quibble. McIntosh was already there in 2013; we drafted him in 2012 with Rivers. Agree completely about what happened when McIntosh became preferred in 2014.



The supreme irony in this, is that OUR PRESENT COACH actually did this at Geelong. I can even give you the game: Round 17 versus Brisbane, 2011.

We had two critical inclusions - Tom Hawkins and Trent West. West had not played a senior game up to that point for the season, but he was promoted. And retained. Ended up playing solid but effective footy supporting Ottens and helped us win a premiership.

For Hawkins, it was even more significant. He'd been kinda sorta for 5 years, had played plenty of games, but had missed some along the way. Critically, he was recalled, and like West, kept there. The really critical part was in the finals Scott did something he simply won't do now - he preferred a young and relatively unproven player (Hawkins was 23 at the time), to the far more experienced Cameron Mooney - for finals football. The result of course was that Hawkins confidence grew and grew to the point he starred against both Hawthorn and West Coast, and then tore Collingwood up in the second half of the Grand Final.

For whatever reason, we don't seem to be willing to take chances on players like this anymore. It's incredibly scattergun. And incredibly frustrating.

Ah, yes, that's right. McIntosh didn't play at all in 2013, due to injury. That was the year where we went into Round 1 with Trent West (straight out of surgery that week, IIRC) and some steeplechaser from the rookie list as our ruck division, heading into Round 1.

Mooney was pretty clearly done from early in 2011, but he kicked a bag or two in those mid-season poundings of Melbourne and Gold Coast and it would have been easy for them to go with the proven player, rather than the enigmatic Hawkins. It's like Chris Scott was a different coach in 2011. His constant rotations gave genuine opportunities to the likes of Brown, Vardy, Christensen, West, Duncan, Menzel, Cowan, Guthrie and Hunt. Some of those players were integral parts of the premiership and others would have been right there fighting for a spot in the 22, if injury hadn't conspired against them.

Some great posts here. Excellent summaries.