Universal Love Holding Faith in Stephen Wells and Mackie (a.k.a. "In Wells We Trust")

[catempire]

Here's my proposed methodology for judging success of picks using Draftguru data.

Compare how many games the Geelong player played with the average of the selection they were taken with in the National Draft. For example, Andrew Mackie played 280 games whereas the average for pick 7 is 109 games so Geelong is +171 for that selection. In contrast, Kane Tenace played only 59 so that's a -50.

That gives you these results:

View attachment 560322
View attachment 560323

Obviously, for the picks from recent years they haven't played out their careers yet so the negative numbers don't have much meaning (except say Hayball and House who are gone on 0 games).

If you sum the "Diff" column up to and including 2011 selections you get +1183. That is, over the period 2007-2011 Geelong got 1183 more games out of its draft selections than the average for those same selections taken across the league. Or an average of 118.3 games per draft year over and above the average (or +25 games per selection). That's an enormous batting average and goes a long way to explaining why Geelong had the success it did in 2007-2011.

Since 2011, the story is much more grim. We are at -545 at an average of -90 per draft or -29 per player. Now obviously a lot of that can be attributed to the players that are still playing and so to the extent that they extend their careers those numbers will improve. But of the list only Thurlow, Lang, Kolo, Cockatoo, Cunico, Buzza, Menegola, Parfitt, Stewart, Narkle and Abbott remain. They would have to play 1020 games between them to bat at the same average as the 2002-2011 crop. Given 4 or 5 of those names probably won't play another 30 games between them that seems a big stretch. Currently, only Kolo and Menegola are batting above the games average. Every other selection in that period is behind the average and seven of those are no longer on an AFL list.

If you look year by year you can also see that success for 2002-2011 with Wells only failing to beat the average in one year out of 10 (2003) thanks to busts with Tenace, Thurley and Spencer:

View attachment 560330

Then you can break it down by round of selection (2002-2011). This ratifies the Wells' reputation for making great selections with 3rd and 4th round selections:

View attachment 560333









Thanks for watching this episode of catempire Nerding Out.

Good bump so I could re-nerd out on this post.

 

[thecatattack]

iN wElLs We BuSt

 

[Vdubs]

Been some very lean drafts years hasnt it. 08 through to 15 looks very bare boned. Nor many A grade stars in those years is there.

I'd add 7 to that list, considering Blake and NAblett and West are all premiership players, Guthrie , Kolo, are proven, and Sav and Parfitt are regular senior players.
Not A graders, but worthwhile acquisitions.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Turned pick 24 into a couple of first rounders, + some more & got 2 years of B+F quality form out of a player on a low wage.
I'd call that a win.

 

[dazbroncos]

Turned pick 24 into a couple of first rounders, + some more & got 2 years of B+F quality form out of a player on a low wage.
I'd call that a win.

The real proof for the naysayers will be in 4 years when the picks have materialised into something
with that said, he's had ot gather the bounty first to spend it.
And that he's done in spades here IMO.
2017 pick 24 ---> 2019 14, 24, 37 and 2020 Rd 1.

Id say thats buying low and selling high even before knowing what it turns into.

GO Catters

 

[candiehappy]

if you wanted to really spot a possible error it would have to be Cockatoo.

you can only make that judgement with the benefit of hindsight

 

[Turbocat]

you can only make that judgement with the benefit of hindsight

Thats the thing its a job thats almost like trading future on the stock market... your job is to predict the future..

 

[catempire]

Thats the thing its a job thats almost like trading future on the stock market... your job is to predict the future..

Good analogy. But even the stock pickers run into events that can’t be predicted (natural disasters etc.).

 

[Turbocat]

Good analogy. But even the stock pickers run into events that can’t be predicted (natural disasters etc.).

sure .. very tough job..

 

[FredLeDeux]

Good analogy. But even the stock pickers run into events that can’t be predicted (natural disasters etc.).

But certain facts were known about Cockatoo's injury history at the time he was picked.

 

[catempire]

But certain facts were known about Cockatoo's injury history at the time he was picked.

Indeed. Not soft tissue though AFAIK which has been his main issue at Geelong. And the knee which is was the result of a contact injury.

 

[Ratcat]

The one that blew me away was the Lang choice.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Indeed. Not soft tissue though AFAIK which has been his main issue at Geelong. And the knee which is was the result of a contact injury.

I don't recall the details, even if I ever knew them.

 

[candiehappy]

But certain facts were known about Cockatoo's injury history at the time he was picked.

from memory, didn't Ottens come with real injury concerns?

 

[FredLeDeux]

from memory, didn't Ottens come with real injury concerns?

Yes, he had a long and diverse injury history, something which tends to be forgotten by the naysayers who count the misses and forget the hits.

 

[Vdubs]

The one that blew me away was the Lang choice.

Falcon, talented, classy user of the ball
I don't see that as a mind-blowing choice.
Many were hoping we would select him, being a "local" as well.

2013 draft prospect: Darcy Lang

Versatile midfielder from Victoria who can win his own ball and also use it well on the outside

www.afl.com.au

 

[DAlembert]

Wells got his plaudits when the club was successful. Almost over the top plaudits but such is human nature in the sporting universe. Whether or not he is any better than someone else who would have had the job is pure hypothesis. Nearing 60 like some others he is due for renewal. Give a younger bloke the position and hopefully discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers. This should not be a job for life. Decisions made since the 2011 year have been on the margin in my view.

 

[GeelongFTW]

Wells got his plaudits when the club was successful. Almost over the top plaudits but such is human nature in the sporting universe. Whether or not he is any better than someone else who would have had the job is pure hypothesis. Nearing 60 like some others he is due for renewal. Give a younger bloke the position and hopefully discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers. This should not be a job for life. Decisions made since the 2011 year have been on the margin in my view.

I dont think his age is really concern is it? It not like he is wrestling with potential draftees or anything.

 

[Max Milburn]

Wells got his plaudits when the club was successful. Almost over the top plaudits but such is human nature in the sporting universe. Whether or not he is any better than someone else who would have had the job is pure hypothesis. Nearing 60 like some others he is due for renewal. Give a younger bloke the position and hopefully discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers. This should not be a job for life. Decisions made since the 2011 year have been on the margin in my view.

Aaah. The old nearing 60 critism.
On behalf of myself and old crocks everywhere, you can **** off.

 

[DAlembert]

I dont think his age is really concern is it? It not like he is wrestling with potential draftees or anything.

"Give a younger bloke the position and hopefully discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers."

 

[DAlembert]

Aaah. The old nearing 60 critism.
On behalf of myself and old crocks everywhere, you can **** off.

Heh Max I am 62..so you can go **** yourself you ****

 

[GeelongFTW]

"Give a younger bloke the position and hopefully discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers."

Why can't wells "discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers."?

 

[cats_09]

Wells got his plaudits when the club was successful. Almost over the top plaudits but such is human nature in the sporting universe. Whether or not he is any better than someone else who would have had the job is pure hypothesis. Nearing 60 like some others he is due for renewal. Give a younger bloke the position and hopefully discover the next generation of Geelong Premiership footballers. This should not be a job for life. Decisions made since the 2011 year have been on the margin in my view.

Why does his age have an impact on his ability to do his job?

Sorry but it seems that here in Aus we have such a fixation on age and that it seems we age people out of jobs for no real good reason, rather than acknowledge that their experience can actually be beneficial

 

[God Mode]

Dal Santo was saying on trade radio, that of all players drafted in the top 40 since 2010, only 40% have gotten regular senior games and after the top 15 only 2-4 players who have been stars. So it's not just us.

 

[bulletproof]

Must be an incredibly frustrating job being a recruiter. The weirdest one for me was Smedts. Very talented junior, actually showed a bit at AFL level. Then stalled and went quickly in reverse. To this day, I can’t work out why he was so rubbish.

I would find it hard to say he was a mistake of a pick. It was clear he had ability.

Lang was probably a mistake. Lacked leg speed and not brilliant in any area of the game. But even he played some very good football at AFL level on occasion.

There is a weird chemistry that makes an AFL player and you simply don’t know on some guys until they get in the system.

Cockatoo was not a mistake. He is a potentially brilliant AFL player.