Holmes vs Newcombe

[TheUnicorn]

If you could draft one of these players regardless of your team's needs, based solely on the player and who they will become, who would you take?



Max Holmes

Team

• McClelland Trophy (Geelong): 2022

Individual

• Geelong F.C. Best Young Player Award: 2021
• 2× Carji Greeves Medal: 2024, 2025

​

Jai Newcombe​

Team

• McClelland Trophy (Hawthorn): 2024

Individual

• AFLCA best young player: 2022
• Peter Crimmins Medal: 2024
• 22under22 team: 2023
• AFL Rising Star nominee: 2022

 

[Blackhawk42]

This is a bit of weird one. Aside from their age they aren't really that comparable as players.

Also, Jai has been our most important player for 4 years now, so even if Holmes was then perfect fit for our club, even as a hypothetical it isn't a trade I'd ever consider making.

I'd assume neutrals would probably select Holmes, in large part due to his explosiveness and athletic qualities.
As general footballs I don't see a lot separating them, however. Newcombe is as well rounded as any midfielder in the competition, with few deficiencies in his game.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Somewhat ironically, I think both players are the exact kind of midfielders that the other team needs right now.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

If Newcombe can kick, then I'll pick him.

 

[Blackhawk42]

If Newcombe can kick, then I'll pick him.

Holmes kicking efficiency: 61%
Newcombe: 63%

Overall disposal efficiency:
Holmes: 68%
Newcombe: 72%

Jai is the best set shot at our club behind Jack Gunston too. If we had a deeper midfield I'd like to see him play forward more often.

 

[Mighty Eagles]

As a WC supporter, I'll take either!

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Jai Newcombe easy​

 

[hawkman]

Jai Newcombe easy​

Not sure any Dogs supporters would choose Holmes given Newcombe destroys the Dogs every time he plays them

 

[My Tilly]

This is really a no contest.
Newcombe is a genuine star and has a bit more to go before hitting his ceiling.
Holmes has now reached full potential.

If you could pick one to build a team around, it would certainly be the tougher inside bull who has stepped it up consistently in his brief finals performances to date.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Holmes kicking efficiency: 61%
Newcombe: 63%

Overall disposal efficiency:
Holmes: 68%
Newcombe: 72%

Jai is the best set shot at our club behind Jack Gunston too. If we had a deeper midfield I'd like to see him play forward more often.

Holmes is an outside running machine, who can be a bit soft at times. If you play that role, you need to be a better kick or bring something else to the table like Dangerfield and to a lesser extent what Smith does.

 

[Mr Meow]

Holmes is an outside running machine, who can be a bit soft at times. If you play that role, you need to be a better kick or bring something else to the table like Dangerfield and to a lesser extent what Smith does.

He does actually.

Among midfielders, Holmes is categorically elite for rebound 50s and intercepts since his move to midfield in 2025. Two-way running territory machine, more of an outside mid who initiates running counter attacks than a contested role. Call him a hybrid mid/wingman/halfback - very different to Dangerfield and Newcombe sort of mids.

In 2026 Holmes is averaging 4.8 rebound 50s, 5.8 inside 50s, 3.8 intercepts and 614 metres gained.

In 2026 Newcombe is averaging 1.4 rebound 50s, 3.6 inside 50s, 1.4 intercepts and 372 metres gained.

Newcombe smashes Holmes for contested possessions and clearances because he's much stronger in those areas and they are also his main focus.

Just very different roles.

How is it working in terms of goals and scores as a final output?

Score involvements: Holmes 6.6 vs Newcombe 6.0
Goal assists: Holmes 1.2 vs Newcombe 0.4
Goals: Holmes 0.2 vs Newcombe 0.6

One reason for Holmes lower goal average is because of that halfback-focussed area for intercepting the ball. He's kicking from wing areas rather than within 55m, usually. A lot of his possessions are taken where the Hawks use Amon, Impey or Massimo.

 

[joe444]

Can't split em. This is like Selwood v Pendlebury only ten years on.

 

[My Tilly]

Can't split em. This is like Selwood v Pendlebury only ten years on.

Except one of those was generational while the other (Selwood) was not far off it.

Not sure either Holmes or Newcombe will ever be top 10 in the game throughout their careers. Probably Newcombe the more likely.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

He does actually.

Among midfielders, Holmes is categorically elite for rebound 50s and intercepts since his move to midfield in 2025. Two-way running territory machine, more of an outside mid who initiates running counter attacks than a contested role. Call him a hybrid mid/wingman/halfback - very different to Dangerfield and Newcombe sort of mids.

In 2026 Holmes is averaging 4.8 rebound 50s, 5.8 inside 50s, 3.8 intercepts and 614 metres gained.

In 2026 Newcombe is averaging 1.4 rebound 50s, 3.6 inside 50s, 1.4 intercepts and 372 metres gained.

Newcombe smashes Holmes for contested possessions and clearances because he's much stronger in those areas and they are also his main focus.

Just very different roles.

How is it working in terms of goals and scores as a final output?

Score involvements: Holmes 6.6 vs Newcombe 6.0
Goal assists: Holmes 1.2 vs Newcombe 0.4
Goals: Holmes 0.2 vs Newcombe 0.6

One reason for Holmes lower goal average is because of that halfback-focussed area for intercepting the ball. He's kicking from wing areas rather than within 55m, usually. A lot of his possessions are taken where the Hawks use Amon, Impey or Massimo.

What are their averages for turning the ball over in bad places and burning their team?

 

[Mr Meow]

What are their averages for turning the ball over in bad places and burning their team?

A turnover every 4.5 disposals for Holmes and every 6.6 disposals for Newcombe so far this season. With 50% more inside 50s and more than 50% extra metres gained you would expect a higher turnover rate though.

Haphazard kicking accuracy is a weakness of Holmes, I agree on that - but that still leaves 20 disposals per game where he's breaking lines open and getting Geelong express territory gains without turning the ball over.

Holmes also has more coaches votes than Newcombe since the start of 2024 (182 vs 166), so the guys in charge must value his output a decent amount. Back to back BnFs in prelim and grand final sides sort of speaks to that as well.

It's good to be balanced in our appraisals. You also asked for what else he brings to the table and I answered you.

 

[hawkman]

Since the GF it seems like there are a few Geelong supporters that have really turned on Holmes for his disposal issues

 

[joe444]

Except one of those was generational while the other (Selwood) was not far off it.

Not sure either Holmes or Newcombe will ever be top 10 in the game throughout their careers. Probably Newcombe the more likely.

I mean it was the debate ten years ago.

Pendlebury wins on immortality, obviously. Doubt many Geelong fans would retrospectively agree to a swap, though.

 

[joe444]

Since the GF it seems like there are a few Geelong supporters that have really turned on Holmes for his disposal issues

Yes. Not so much turned on him as identified it as something he has to (and can) improve.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

A turnover every 4.5 disposals for Holmes and every 6.6 disposals for Newcombe so far this season. With 50% more inside 50s and more than 50% extra metres gained you would expect a higher turnover rate though.

Haphazard kicking accuracy is a weakness of Holmes, I agree on that - but that still leaves 20 disposals per game where he's breaking lines open and getting Geelong express territory gains without turning the ball over.

Holmes also has more coaches votes than Newcombe since the start of 2024 (182 vs 166), so the guys in charge must value his output a decent amount. Back to back BnFs in prelim and grand final sides sort of speaks to that as well.

It's good to be balanced in our appraisals. You also asked for what else he brings to the table and I answered you.

The information you provided for Holmes is what I would expect from him, I'm talking about anything else.

There's also nuance missing from those raw stats. Where does he turn the ball over, does it lead to opposition scores? Is he in clean air when he turns it over, or is he being pressured? What is the state of the game, what is the game, final, game against a top 4 or top 8 side?

When a big lot of you midfield rotation are poor kicks, you want to bring other things to the table.

For similar ball winners at Geelomg who are, imo, poor kicks too, Danger brings presence, overhead capabilities and his ballistic, battering ram style, as seen in last year's prelim.

Smith I think is a very good and creative handballer in tight and a little more physical than Holmes.

 

[Mr Meow]

The information you provided for Holmes is what I would expect from him, I'm talking about anything else.

There's also nuance missing from those raw stats. Where does he turn the ball over, does it lead to opposition scores? Is he in clean air when he turns it over, or is he being pressured? What is the state of the game, what is the game, final, game against a top 4 or top 8 side?

When a big lot of you midfield rotation are poor kicks, you want to bring other things to the table.

For similar ball winners at Geelomg who are, imo, poor kicks too, Danger brings presence, overhead capabilities and his ballistic, battering ram style, as seen in last year's prelim.

Smith I think is a very good and creative handballer in tight and a little more physical than Holmes.

Yeah I'm not denying his weaknesses or anything. He does do a lot right, but is never going to be a Dangerfield type of midfielder. Smith is a ball butcher too, just a bit more contested and with less athletic capacity/speed/intercepting ability.

Holmes and Smith both drive our game forward but are prone to mistakes and nightmare quarters or sometimes even games. It's just one of those things.

Our brains tend to remember and then exaggerate the frequency or severity of bad things. Some Cats supporters will use the 2025 GF trauma to bash Holmes until he wins 3 Brownlows and a Norm Smith. We had 15 or more players who lowered their colours on the same day.

 

[My Tilly]

We had 15 or more players who lowered their colours on the same day.

Mark Blicavs is a good example of a player who has consistently lowered his colours in finals. Eerily similar to Hawkins who finally had a some solid finals performances at the pointy end of his career.

Holmes has at least been satisfactory to date. Sure, he was bloody poor in last years grand final but I think he's now the final product and that is realistically the equal of Mitch Duncan who forged an excellent career.

Zac Butters would give the current midfield genuine pizzazz. Two way bull with moments of brilliance in-between. You can see why so many clubs are trying to coax him away from Port Adelaide.

 

[Mr Meow]

Mark Blicavs is a good example of a player who has consistently lowered his colours in finals. Eerily similar to Hawkins who finally had a some solid finals performances at the pointy end of his career.

Holmes has at least been satisfactory to date. Sure, he was bloody poor in last years grand final but I think he's now the final product and that is realistically the equal of Mitch Duncan who forged an excellent career.

Zac Butters would give the current midfield genuine pizzazz. Two way bull with moments of brilliance in-between. You can see why so many clubs are trying to coax him away from Port Adelaide.

Holmes had been a great finals performer until his erratic GF day - he just happened to pop a hammy on 2 separate occassions he was dominating - oddly both against Brisbane (2022 and 2024). Essentially he had 3 really good performances against Brisbane in finals and then 1 shocker, so I think as a young player he doesn't need to be hung out to dry.

He's a very different sort of player to Duncan, who had superb skills and decision making - but not the athletic attributes. Holmes pushes back to set up a number of counter attacks from half back. He's not really a conventional stoppage focussed midfielder in that sense. I consider him more of a hybrid midfielder/wingman/flanker. In that sense his role is somewhat similar to Duncan's, just played a very different way.

Butters would help us as he is a bit more Duncan-esque in terms of his skills, but then with the crash and bash ability of Selwood, and a splash of extra burst speed. Seems like the Dogs are going to get him though.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'll state once again that this is an interesting, but ultimately flawed player comparison, since both offer very different qualities.

One thing I am quite certain of is that if Jai won as much footy as Holmes, he'd probably be Brownlow favourite.
And if Holmes won the same amount as footy as he already does, but impacted the contest as efficiently as Newcombe does, he'd also likely be Brownlow favourite.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'll state once again that this is an interesting, but ultimately flawed player comparison, since both offer very different qualities.

One thing I am quite certain of is that if Jai won as much footy as Holmes, he'd probably be Brownlow favourite.
And if Holmes won the same amount as footy as he already does, but impacted the contest as efficiently as Newcombe does, he'd also likely be Brownlow favourite.

Quite different roles.

Holmes would be lucky to attend half of the stoppages in a given season - his centre bounce attendance in 2026 is just over 50%, and his last 2 games he's almost exclusively been a back flanker. He's an outside running and territory machine who primarily sets up counter attacks when we win the ball off the opposition - often he is the interceptor himself. It's best to think of him as a hybrid mid/wingman/back flanker.

Newcombe has 81% centre bounce attendance this year and is at most of the around the ground stoppages too. Very much an inside mid slogging it out in the clinches and then linking up in general play, but not at express speed and is more precision over territory-focussed.

The surprising part to start the season is that Holmes has 8 goal assists compared to 3 for Newcombe. You'd think that Newcombe would be finding targets inside 50 more often.