Analysis Home Ground Advantage in the AFL over the most recent 5 years

[Chief]

Pulled together some data on home ground advantage across the AFL over the last few years.

Some venues still give a real edge, others not so much.

Interesting differences between interstate grounds and places like Marvel/MCG.

Full breakdown here:

https://www.bigfooty.com/2026/04/home-ground-advantage-in-the-afl-myth-fortress-or-measurable-edge/

 

[Drunkcat]

Pulled together some data on home ground advantage across the AFL over the last few years.

Some venues still give a real edge, others not so much.

Interesting differences between interstate grounds and places like Marvel/MCG.

Full breakdown here:

https://www.bigfooty.com/2026/04/home-ground-advantage-in-the-afl-myth-fortress-or-measurable-edge/

Said this page cannot be found.

 

[SC_Power]

Pulled together some data on home ground advantage across the AFL over the last few years.

Some venues still give a real edge, others not so much.

Interesting differences between interstate grounds and places like Marvel/MCG.

Full breakdown here:

https://www.bigfooty.com/2026/04/home-ground-advantage-in-the-afl-myth-fortress-or-measurable-edge/

Can’t read it, but does it account for the strength of teams playing?

 

[Sentinel]

Marvel teams sharing the stadium with multiple other clubs but not getting to host finals there is the real #VICBIAS

 

[NetworkNerd]

Marvel teams sharing the stadium with multiple other clubs but not getting to host finals there is the real #VICBIAS

Might get one this year 2nd week of the finals!

 

[Chief]

Which AFL clubs actually get the biggest lift from playing at home?

Ran the numbers from 2022–2026 — some expected names, but a few surprises.

Gold Coast right up there, Bulldogs not so lucky.

Full rankings:

https://www.bigfooty.com/2026/04/which-afl-clubs-get-the-biggest-home-ground-advantage/

 

[Colonial]

Does away disadvantage exist then as well?
Just as some Victorian clubs wont have a “true home” advantage, they don’t get a “true away” disadvantage as well.

Interesting about hawthorn. Do they play more intestate clubs than some other Victorian clubs?

Stunned about Swans and SCG.

 

[Sentinel]

Does away disadvantage exist then as well?
Just as some Victorian clubs wont have a “true home” advantage, they don’t get a “true away” disadvantage as well.

Interesting about hawthorn. Do they play more intestate clubs than some other Victorian clubs?

Stunned about Swans and SCG.

This seems mostly intuitive. Most Vic clubs, excl Geelong, get less true home games but also less true away games compared to clubs in other states, along with less travel. I've always assumed it means Vic clubs are more likely to finish at the extremes of the ladder as a result, whereas non-Vic teams are more likely to finish around the middle (i.e. more likely to win more home games and lose more away games, compared to clubs playing neutral games where the ground is less relevant)

The SCG thing is very weird given how different it is compared to other venues.

 

[Linda Lovelace]

A aye, captain.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Does away disadvantage exist then as well?
Just as some Victorian clubs wont have a “true home” advantage, they don’t get a “true away” disadvantage as well.

Interesting about hawthorn. Do they play more intestate clubs than some other Victorian clubs?

Stunned about Swans and SCG.

Wouldn't think so at the MCG, as they play at least two non-Vic clubs a year at York Park. However, on the flipside, they don't play those clubs at Docklands as some MCG based teams may be forced to do occasionally.

 

[joe444]

Since 2016.

Hilarious that the biggest bleaters - the Tiges - are the biggest beneficiaries. And look at the Cats - who seem to have an away ground advantage as well.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Since 2016.

Hilarious that the biggest bleaters - the Tiges - are the biggest beneficiaries. And look at the Cats - who seem to have an away ground advantage as well.

View attachment 2570153

That away ground advantage stems from having an 'away' ground that they play at 5x per year.
Its not really an away venue for them, but is calculated as such as its the oppo's home game.

 

[Chief]

Said this page cannot be found.

Interesting - ok now?

 

[Chief]

This is a really interesting one.

Which AFL grounds actually are fortresses — and which ones aren't?

Some big myths busted (MCG, Marvel, even SCG).

Includes data from the last 5 seasons:

https://www.bigfooty.com/2026/04/th...nds-which-venues-actually-give-teams-an-edge/

 

[joe444]

That away ground advantage stems from having an 'away' ground that they play at 5x per year.
Its not really an away venue for them, but is calculated as such as its the oppo's home game.

Ok, so let's take the MCG out of it. Since 2009

Away record: 94 - 57 = 62.3%

The performance goes up, and is comfortably the best in the league.

18% less likely than winning at home, which is certainly far from the best home ground advantage in the league (Hawthorn, Gold Coast, West Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle in that order). The "Geelong's unfair advantage" stuff is mainly a myth.

sources: AFL Tables, ttps://www.aussportstipping.com/sports/afl/home_advantage/

note: not strictly relevant, but the reason for Geelong staying up has been one thing - we were the only club to deliberately plan against bottoming out; with a third of the comp either bottoming out, rebuilding or planning to do so, it's actually quite easy to stay up if you're the only one attempting it.

 

[Drunkcat]

Does away disadvantage exist then as well?
Just as some Victorian clubs wont have a “true home” advantage, they don’t get a “true away” disadvantage as well.

Interesting about hawthorn. Do they play more intestate clubs than some other Victorian clubs?

Stunned about Swans and SCG.

Hawthorn was very good in Tasmania

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Hawthorn was very good in Tasmania

They were, but that may also be impacted by not often playing good teams in Launceston.
Often the lower drawing games are not just the smaller clubs, but also the expected lower finishing ones. So, while there have been good teams as Hawthorn's opponents in Launceston, it has probably been overloaded with lower half teams.
All that said, their win percentage at York Park is probably higher than one would expect even accounting for that.
(NB : too lazy to check the numbers)

 

[Lunchtime]

That away ground advantage stems from having an 'away' ground that they play at 5x per year.
Its not really an away venue for them, but is calculated as such as its the oppo's home game.

Maybe the term "Away" needs to be re-assessed as in....games played outside teams home state.

 

[joe444]

Maybe the term "Away" needs to be re-assessed as in....games played outside teams home state.

But again that poster was just assuming anyway.

e.g. the assumption that Geelong's games at the MCG aren't "away", whereas the stats show that Geelong have an even better record away from the MCG/KP anyway.

If we're just chasing the definition that proves a point, then perhaps the point is wrong.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Not assuming at all.

If they are the oppo's home game, they are 'away' for you.
Its just an 'away' game you get on a familiar (~5× a season outside of finals) ground.
Brisbane has shown that getting MCG exposure as they have done recently, gives them a greater chance of success there and its taken unprecedented access to top end talent as a top of ladder club to get both.

For a less favoured club , it would be almost impossible to get that prolonged exposure.

 

[Chief]

How much of home ground advantage is actually just good teams being good?

Looked at home vs away performance vs overall strength — clears up a few misconceptions.

Breakdown here:

Does Team Quality Explain Home Ground Advantage in the AFL?

Which teams use venues as a crutch?

www.bigfooty.com