Analysis Home Track Bullies

[Biggie]

Interesting read here

Avg winning margin at home - best part of 10 goals.

Avg losing margin away since Gold Coast draw - Just under 8 goals.

What can we do to this arrest this conundrum peeps?

Or do we hope one day the AFL will move the GF to the home team?

Have at it.

 

[FatPizza]

No excuses, but if you look at the teams we've played at home vs the teams we've played away it makes a little more sense.

 

[SpaceClef]

No excuses, but if you look at the teams we've played at home vs the teams we've played away it makes a little more sense.

But the author does acknowledge that we aren't just losing in these games - we are a complete no show.

I think our players have lost confidence in the game plan away from Perth. I feel like we too reliant on our structure to win, and the guys don't believe they can win without the web.

Explains the complete lack of heart at the faintest sign of resistance from the opposition.

Reckon the GF has scarred us far, far more than it motivated us. Concerning

 

[MWPP]

Every other team is , too
Other than the GC game , our other losses can be explained by the opposition- we won't be the only ones to lose to Adelaide , Hawks x2 and Sydney away . Hawks just got smashed by GWS, and Sydney were lucky to scrap out a win against lowly Brisbane too.
There haven't been any impressive interstate wins against good opposition this year (by any side) - Geelong v Port has probably been the "best" so far
I expect us to turn around our away form once we start playing worse teams again

 

[SpaceClef]

.
There haven't been any impressive interstate wins against good opposition this year (by any side)

Adelaide and St Kilda both should have won against Hawthorn. Melbourne should have won against North.

All interstate games against premiership favourites, and all went down to the wire.

As keeps being said - I don't think it's the losing that is the issue. It's the way we have lost.

 

[MWPP]

Adelaide and St Kilda both should have won against Hawthorn. Melbourne should have won against North.


All interstate games against premiership favourites, and all went down to the wire.

As keeps being said - I don't think it's the losing that is the issue. It's the way we have lost.

Shoulda Coulda Woulda
I get what you're trying to say
But I don't really believe in honorable losses
And I think we caught Hawks on a good week- after they were smarting from their loss to the cats
They haven't been the same since
And I don't rate North, despite their unbeaten record

 

[ZergMinion]

So this away record is going off 4 games right?

Adelaide - we didn't care because we only had to win against St Kilda the following week to sew up a top 2 spot, while Adelaide were gunning for a home final.
Hawthorn - Grand Final. We choked. Almost everyone played badly.
Hawthorn - Grand Final Replay. The press had been telling us and Hawthorn we were going to win all week. Also our pre-season prep was poor due to quality of opposition where our real team played.
Sydney - We ran out of legs in the second half as this was our second match in a row in the wet. Also previous two games had been off consecutive 6 day breaks.

Our away wins last year:

Collingwood, Melbourne, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Richmond. Only side you'd rate as good is Richmond (last year anyway), and they played pretty badly in that one. Clearly weren't switched on or playing close to their best.

We lost away games to the Bulldogs, Adelaide and North Melbourne with the draw to Gold Coast plus the GF.

Truth probably is that we overachieved a little last year with an easier draw, and we have a harder draw this year. We're still not in particularly good form this year and we're still 4-2, so hardly cause for panic. I reckon it'll all click soon. Redden is playing off a very limited pre-season (If Sheed were fit Redden may have not played every game so far). E-mac is still getting his touch back after a year off, and some of our guys are not quite in the form they were last year.

 

[Suma Magic]

Our opponents are away track bullied, just as we are.

It's bloody hard to travel across the country and win.

But we do have to beat average and poor sides away to make top 4 and give ourselves a realistic chance of making a GF. I'm not sure if we can do it. I hope we can. If we can get close to Geelong I'll be confident that we can beat lesser sides.

 

[The Dodger]

Yeah margins in games doesn't really come into it. Its purely the manner in the way we win at home v meek showing away.
True not many away teams have won but Sydney put up a much better fight in Adelaide than I would give us at the moment. Adelaide nearly beat Hawks at the MCG.
And not just that the biggest thing for me is that they play the same way win lose or draw on home deck or away. Our players are like chalk and cheese.
The Sydney in Adelaide and Adelaide at MCG games were nearly identical in tempo and quality.

Would be nice to get a bit of starch in us on the road and play the way we want to.

 

[avishka5]

Yeah margins in games doesn't really come into it. Its purely the manner in the way we win at home v meek showing away.
True not many away teams have won but Sydney put up a much better fight in Adelaide than I would give us at the moment. Adelaide nearly beat Hawks at the MCG.
And not just that the biggest thing for me is that they play the same way win lose or draw on home deck or away. Our players are like chalk and cheese.
The Sydney in Adelaide and Adelaide at MCG games were nearly identical in tempo and quality.

Would be nice to get a bit of starch in us on the road and play the way we want to.

Adelaide have a thread called "our appalling record in closes losses in victoria" https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/our-appalling-record-in-close-games-in-victoria.1130702/. sure its a different problem but to be honest it shows that adelaide can come close to matching it with the best sides away from home. Its demoralizing to lose by few points but i would take that over a big loss.

 

[MWPP]

Yeah margins in games doesn't really come into it. Its purely the manner in the way we win at home v meek showing away.
True not many away teams have won but Sydney put up a much better fight in Adelaide than I would give us at the moment. Adelaide nearly beat Hawks at the MCG.

Sydney didn't look so good against Brisbane on the weekend ....
And Adelaide didn't look so good (despite playing at home) against Freo either....
I don't think any side has really stood up this year
Not even unbeaten North.
Geelong have probably come the closest , so if we somehow win this week, it would be massive!!

 

[MWPP]

Adelaide have a thread called "our appalling record in closes losses in victoria" https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/our-appalling-record-in-close-games-in-victoria.1130702/. sure its a different problem but to be honest it shows that adelaide can come close to matching it with the best sides away from home. Its demoralizing to lose by few points but i would take that over a big loss.

% implications aside, I actually prefer bigger (not thrashings, but still convincing) losses over heartbreaking ones
I remember the string of narrow losses we had against two of our bogey sides ie Collingwood at the MCG, and Port in Adelaide- devastating
On a brighter note- we have one of the best records at Adelaide Oval

 

[MWPP]

Our opponents are away track bullied, just as we are.

It's bloody hard to travel across the country and win.

But we do have to beat average and poor sides away to make top 4 and give ourselves a realistic chance of making a GF. I'm not sure if we can do it. I hope we can. If we can get close to Geelong I'll be confident that we can beat lesser sides.

I'm quietly confident that we can beat average/poor sides away
Luckily we play the Gabba/Adelaide Oval pretty well , which helps
And we have a good record against GWS (not only have we won every game, but smashed them every time)
Admittedly it has been a while since we played them over there, but the game is so late in the season that it's too early to be worrying about it anyway.

 

[avishka5]

% implications aside, I actually prefer bigger (not thrashings, but still convincing) losses over heartbreaking ones
I remember the string of narrow losses we had against two of our bogey sides ie Collingwood at the MCG, and Port in Adelaide- devastating
On a brighter note- we have one of the best records at Adelaide Oval

it depends tho. I would take 10-20 point loss cause it shows your just about there against the best away but a string of 1-6 point loss will be demorsalizing and highlights a sides inability to win in close games. However, i would a take a couple of them over a hawks or even a swans performance.

 

[The Dodger]

Sydney didn't look so good against Brisbane on the weekend ....
And Adelaide didn't look so good (despite playing at home) against Freo either....
I don't think any side has really stood up this year
Not even unbeaten North.
Geelong probably come the closest , so if we somehow win this week, it would be massive!!

But its the quality of the opposition. In the Syd v Adel & Adel v Hawks they knew they were taking on a form team and prepared for it and were in it up to their eyeballs. Its one thing to put in a good performance its another when you the other team are gunning for you as well.

Sydney could have dropped that game against Brisbane and it would have been seen as an aberration. They know...and everyone else would know their best is good enough. As we don't see our best in big games against the best sides away from Subi we don't know if that is the case.

I stil dont rate North yet either. Until they travel in a big game and show what they can do those question marks will still be there. Same for Bulldogs away from Etihad (although injuries are now probably taking their toll on them).

 

[MWPP]

it depends tho. I would take 10-20 point loss cause it shows your just about there against the best away but a string of 1-6 point loss will be demorsalizing and highlights a sides inability to win in close games. However, i would a take a couple of them over a hawks or even a swans performance.

Yeah, 10-20 point losses are probably the least tough to take. I wouldn't take a couple of heartbreaking close losses over our away hawks/swans performance (which were expected). I'm looking forward to the opportunity to return the favour to the Hawks when we play them again later this season
And if we play Sydney in a final in Perth, I expect to beat them too

 

[Suma Magic]

We smashed Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, geelong and the Dogs at home last year.

They all have the same issue as us when traveling that far.

 

[MWPP]

But its the quality of the opposition. In the Syd v Adel & Adel v Hawks they knew they were taking on a form team and prepared for it and were in it up to their eyeballs. Its one thing to put in a good performance its another when you the other team are gunning for you as well.

Sydney could have dropped that game against Brisbane and it would have been seen as an aberration. They know...and everyone else would know their best is good enough. As we don't see our best in big games against the best sides away from Subi we don't know if that is the case.

I doubt it would've been seen as an aberration. Top teams do lose to average teams, but very rarely do they lose to bottom 4 teams. But perhaps Brisbane are better than many people realise (they have had an extremely tough start to the season). I was at our Richmond win last year (it was amazing!)
I actually predict that we *will* see some awesome away wins this year
But unfortunately, none at the MCG (Hawks was our only chance- our other MCG games are against lesser opponents )
I'll back us to win at least one of Geelong this week/Adelaide at Adelaide Oval/Bulldogs at Etihad though (bookmark this if you like!)

I stil dont rate North yet either. Until they travel in a big game and show what they can do those question marks will still be there. Same for Bulldogs away from Etihad (although injuries are now probably taking their toll on them).

Yeah, North are flatter track bullies than we are (in some ways), but worse at it than we are (in other ways ie they rarely demolish sides). They have been unconvincing in some of their wins against lesser opponents too. The Bulldogs still haven't played a game away from Etihad. So yes, I don't rate them yet, either.

 

[The Dodger]

We smashed Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, geelong and the Dogs at home last year.

They all have the same issue as us when traveling that far.

Last year is the key word.
Bulldogs have that issue until proven otherwise. But the others have improved. Sydney is pretty much 2014 Sydney again. Geelong are much improved on last year. Hawthorn are Hawthorn. We can smash them at Subi and they would just belt us harder at the MCG again. Adelaide are also a completely different side to the one that lost by 12 goals to the Hawks in that Semi.
I think we have improved slightly introducing new players but I don't see the gap that Adelaide, Sydney & Geelong (who I'm still not sold on their credentials to be honest) have improved.

 

[avishka5]

Yeah, 10-20 point losses are probably the least tough to take. I wouldn't take a couple of heartbreaking close losses over our away hawks/swans performance (which were expected). I'm looking forward to the opportunity to return the favour to the Hawks when we play them again later this season
And if we play Sydney in a final in Perth, I expect to beat them too

To be honest i would tale 1-6 point loss to both swans and hawks this year. In the short term it would be painful but it shows that we are able to mix it with best away from home.

 

[Suma Magic]

Last year is the key word.
Bulldogs have that issue until proven otherwise. But the others have improved. Sydney is pretty much 2014 Sydney again. Geelong are much improved on last year. Hawthorn are Hawthorn. We can smash them at Subi and they would just belt us harder at the MCG again. Adelaide are also a completely different side to the one that lost by 12 goals to the Hawks in that Semi.
I think we have improved slightly introducing new players but I don't see the gap that Adelaide, Sydney & Geelong (who I'm still not sold on their credentials to be honest) have improved.

My point is that the only reasonable comparison to us playing away is other sides traveling just as far.

Until we get beaten at home I don't see how we are home track bullies any more than anyone else facing the same challenge. Crossing the Nullabor to beat a decent side is really hard.

 

[MWPP]

The good news is that with Freo being abysmal this year , we can now pencil in the other derby as a win (usually they're split , and at times , we have gone 0-2, so I assumed we would lose one at the start of the year ).
Pies at the MCG is another game I assumed we would lose when I went through our draw (given our embarrassing record against them over there ) , but am now sure we can win

 

[Wet Toast Rule]

Yes, and you can write the loss to Gws at spotless with a permanent marker.

 

[SpaceClef]

We smashed Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, geelong and the Dogs at home last year.

They all have the same issue as us when traveling that far.

Adelaide was always going to be a win given their coach had just died. Hard to gauge that one. Sydney was undermanned (no Franklin, Tippett or Richards) and really out of form at the time. Geelong was horseshit last year in general. Hawthorn beat us the first time they flew across.

Let's not get carried away with how much we 'smashed' sides last year. WB I agree with, and are just as reliant on playing at Etihad as we are at Subi.

 

[MWPP]

Yes, and you can write the loss to Gws at spotless with a permanent marker.

Bookmarked (because I'm sure we will win )