Hong Kong protests

[Steinfreo]

They're wiping out the Uyghurs by any means necessary (including forced sterilisation). The Chinese are brutal at stamping out opposition. The modus operandi has been repeated many times.

Our foray into modern muslim stomping helped create ISIS remember.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Another massacre at the hands of Chinese troops would be a PR disaster for China at home and overseas.
I also don't think that Hong Kong can be governed with martial law.

a HK massacre will be a winner in the mainland, and no s**t it will see sanctions and the like from the OS community. you have to understand the chinese people will not let china be broken up, and when the protesters turned this into an independence movement, the calls for restraint disappeared

I love HK, but IMO the protesters overplayed their hand. Chinese takeover by force is inevitable if the protests maintain their current intensity

 

[Present Not Past]

a HK massacre will be a winner in the mainland, and no s**t it will see sanctions and the like from the OS community. you have to understand the chinese people will not let china be broken up, and when the protesters turned this into an independence movement, the calls for restraint disappeared

I love HK, but IMO the protesters overplayed their hand. Chinese takeover by force is inevitable if the protests maintain their current intensity

That's my point - how are the Chinese going to use force against 1.7 million protesters. Any forces would be overwhelmed and the weapons used against them.

 

[peternorth]

What HKers can do is funnel the troops into a small street, or even nathan road if need be. Block off the flank roads so that the China troops have only one way in. Then it's a face off.

I recall in the movie 300. The Spartans used this tactic to minimise the offensive power of their enemy. An enemy that number in the 1000s.

Wait, this isnt the same.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

That's my point - how are the Chinese going to use force against 1.7 million protesters. Any forces would be overwhelmed and the weapons used against them.

Umbrellas vs tanks....

 

[Present Not Past]

Umbrellas vs tanks....

Yes. Tanks are useless in a high density urban environment.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

What HKers can do is funnel the troops into a small street, or even nathan road if need be. Block off the flank roads so that the China troops have only one way in. Then it's a face off.

I recall in the movie 300. The Spartans used this tactic to minimise the offensive power of their enemy. An enemy that number in

Yes. Tanks are useless in a high density urban environment.

Assault rifles vs umbrellas

Grenades vs umbrellas

Sniper rifles vs umbrellas

Result is still the same.

HK doesn't have a tonne of arms, international military support, or a culture of military training. The protesters taking on the pla will be as successful as the children's crusade

 

[Present Not Past]

Assault rifles vs umbrellas

Grenades vs umbrellas

Sniper rifles vs umbrellas

Result is still the same.

HK doesn't have a tonne of arms, international military support, or a culture of military training. The protesters taking on the pla will be as successful as the children's crusade

Except that the numbers will be on the side of Hong Kong.
Hong Kongers - 99.9%
PLA - 0.1%

 

[Present Not Past]

Capturing and controlling a hostile major city is probably the worst action that a military force can undertake.
If it was easy the PLA would probably have already done it.

 

[DaRick]

Except that the numbers will be on the side of Hong Kong.
Hong Kongers - 99.9%
PLA - 0.1%

'People power' only really works against those who aren't willing to kill en masse in order to preserve their position.

Tienanmen shows that the Chinese don't fit that category.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Except that the numbers will be on the side of Hong Kong.
Hong Kongers - 99.9%
PLA - 0.1%

Math is not your friend

Beijing isn't sending 1700 troops into HK. It already has 10,000 PLA troops based in Shenzhen, and has recently deployed 20,000 police troops to the region.

Add to this you assume the 1.7m will hold fat. They won't. Queues for visas for Taiwan, Australia, Canada and so on are at record levels. And that is ignoring the hundreds of thousands who got permanent residency or citizenship elsewhere before the handover (Australia alone has 100,000 citizens living in HK)

The 1.7m will evaporate when there is an actual price to protesting

 

[Present Not Past]

'People power' only really works against those who aren't willing to kill en masse in order to preserve their position.

Tienanmen shows that the Chinese don't fit that category.

The Tiananmen Massacre caused huge divisions within the Communist Party.
I don't know if you recall but at the time rumours emerged out of China of Chinese units from different regions moving to fire on each other.

 

[DaRick]

The Tiananmen Massacre caused huge divisions within the Communist Party.
I don't know if you recall but at the time rumours emerged out of China of Chinese units from different regions moving to fire on each other.

I've heard of such rumours and I accept that the soldiers who fired on the protesters wouldn't have been locals.

 

[Maggie5]

Twitter taking a stand?

We are disclosing a significant state-backed information operation focused on the situation in Hong Kong, specifically the protest movement and their calls for political change.
This disclosure consists of 936 accounts originating from within the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Overall, these accounts were deliberately and specifically attempting to sow political discord in Hong Kong, including undermining the legitimacy and political positions of the protest movement on the ground. Based on our intensive investigations, we have reliable evidence to support that this is a coordinated state-backed operation. Specifically, we identified large clusters of accounts behaving in a coordinated manner to amplify messages related to the Hong Kong protests.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

'People power' only really works against those who aren't willing to kill en masse in order to preserve their position.

Tienanmen shows that the Chinese don't fit that category.

There are some very big differences between now and 1989.

The idea that media could live-broadcast an unscheduled event from somewhere like China too the government of the day by surprise. Practically everything going out had been on tape, and subject to Chinese siezure. That loss of control, and that there was interest in the west, was possibly not really bargained for. This isn't a problem for them in Tibet or other places where journalists are banned from entering. The Chinese authorities at the time were not (western) media-savvy, that has changed a lot.

While it is true that the world depends on China for trade, it is also true that China relies on the world for the new wealth. In 1989 China was only important because of it absolute numbers, it was an economic and technological backwater. A major disruption through trade sanctions could see the urban young, used to wealth and not at all familiar with the days of actual communism, on the mainland become disgruntled. Far better to keep a HK uprising contained, and call it terrorism and western influences, than risk similar in Beijing and Shanghai. The risk isn't high, but it is far from inconceivable as well, given that a supposedly communist nation is now one of the great wealth-worshippers.

Hong Kong protests do not pose an existential threat to the Party. The ones in 1989 potentially did.

I strongly doubt overt military force will be used, for practical reasons not any new-found morality. Disappearances and mass arrests are far more likely, including extradition to the mainland (without the treaty that kicked off this current round). Expect some people to go missing from their beds over the next month in order to silence protests before the 70th anniversary of the Peoples Republic.

 

[Crankyhawk]

What can the Chinese troops do against 1.7 million people on the streets?

Tiananmen them.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Another massacre at the hands of Chinese troops would be a PR disaster for China at home and overseas.
I also don't think that Hong Kong can be governed with martial law.

I don’t think China would care about western PR issues. They didn’t after Tiananmen and the west returned to trade

 

[Juddism]

word from a crew member friend of mine is that it's on at HKIA tonight and that the protestors will bring the airport to a stand-still...they're blocking the roads into the airport.

Lam needs to go but Beijing is too corrupt to backdown and doesn't want to lose face.

Beijing will not win this war because unlike mainlanders HK can broadcast the situation and it has an educated population with a relatively free press.

 

[Gavin Excell]

word from a crew member friend of mine is that it's on at HKIA tonight and that the protestors will bring the airport to a stand-still...they're blocking the roads into the airport.

Lam needs to go but Beijing is too corrupt to backdown and doesn't want to lose face.

Beijing will not win this war because unlike mainlanders HK can broadcast the situation and it has an educated population with a relatively free press.

So how does it end without Beijing losing face?

 

[Juddism]

So how does it end without Beijing losing face?

that's the $64 question..

 

[peternorth]

that's the $64 question..

64 renminbi

 

[peternorth]

according to a relative of moi, Hong Kong is dead.

 

[Juddism]

according to a relative of moi, Hong Kong is dead.

I was up there recently and honestly it was like that...I've been there countless times over the past 30 years and never seen it like this, had a very downbeat feel to it, streets were empty, shops too, even LKF was like a ghost town.

 

[peternorth]

I was up there recently and honestly it was like that...I've been there countless times over the past 30 years and never seen it like this, had a very downbeat feel to it, streets were empty, shops too, even LKF was like a ghost town.

wonder if disneyland is empty too. Good time to go!

 

[Present Not Past]

Tiananmen them.

If they were going to go down that path, they would have done that by now.