Preview Horse Racing - Spring Carnival 2016

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The Royal Sampler said:
Mahogany was another. These are rare types however. Looking back at the Derby over the past few years, I think only Tarzino was even pre-race favourite. Fiveandahalfstar and Super Cool were virtually equal favourites if memory serves.

2015 - Tarzino
2014 – Preferment – 101
2013 – Polanski – 105.5
2012 – Fiveandahalfstar – 106
2011 – Sangster – 100.5
2010 – Lion Tamer – 106
2009 – Monaco Consul – 102.5
2008 – Rebel Raider – 106.5
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They look like the ratings not the odds?
Rebel Raider was 100/1 or something on memory.
The rest were in the market at least
 
Sorry, I was not implying that those were the odds, hence my use of memory. There is a difference between being "in the market" and being the class runner of the field, and able to win on that class alone.
 
Maggie5 said:
I am only a small each way punter and have been watching a fair bit on Ch78, can you explain to me what those percentages are when they put bookies prices up please?
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If you were to imagine a four-horse race, in which the odds were as follows;

Horse A - $2 (Evens, implied 50% chance)
Horse B - $4 (3-1, implied 25% chance)
Horse C - $8 (7-1, implied 12.5% chance)
Horse D - $8 (7-1, implied 12.5% chance)

This would be considered a 100% market, because the total of the horses' implied chances of winning adds up to 100%. You will basically never see this type of market because the bookmaker doesn't have any margin and given proportionate action from his clients, can't make any money.

Instead the bookmaker might draw up the market for the same race like this;

Horse A - $1.90 (9-10, implied 52.63% chance)
Horse B - $3.50 (5-2, implied 28.57% chance)
Horse C - $7 (6-1, implied 14.29% chance)
Horse D - $7 6-1, implied 14.29% chance)

The implied chances now add up to not 100%, but 109.77%, and this is where the bookies make their money. You might see this in a very competitive market close to race time. Normally when you arrive on course, bookmakers will have their markets set to 120%, and the odds creep out as the money comes in and shapes the market.

In short, the bookmakers' markets imply each horse in the race has slightly more chance of winning than they actually have.
 

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The Royal Sampler said:
If you were to imagine a four-horse race, in which the odds were as follows;

Horse A - $2 (Evens, implied 50% chance)
Horse B - $4 (3-1, implied 25% chance)
Horse C - $8 (7-1, implied 12.5% chance)
Horse D - $8 (7-1, implied 12.5% chance)

This would be considered a 100% market, because the total of the horses' implied chances of winning adds up to 100%. You will basically never see this type of market because the bookmaker doesn't have any margin and given proportionate action from his clients, can't make any money.

Instead the bookmaker might draw up the market for the same race like this;

Horse A - $1.90 (9-10, implied 52.63% chance)
Horse B - $3.50 (5-2, implied 28.57% chance)
Horse C - $7 (6-1, implied 14.29% chance)
Horse D - $7 6-1, implied 14.29% chance)

The implied chances now add up to not 100%, but 109.77%, and this is where the bookies make their money. You might see this in a very competitive market close to race time. Normally when you arrive on course, bookmakers will have their markets set to 120%, and the odds creep out as the money comes in and shapes the market.

In short, the bookmakers' markets imply each horse in the race has slightly more chance of winning than they actually have.
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Thank you, will print it out and compare. Had been bugging me for some time and didn't know who to ask.
 
If you just want something cheap and nasty, there is an iPhone app called "Greyhound Betting Calculator" where you can enter the odds for up to 8 different horses/greyhounds/whatever and it will give you the implied percentages, total market percentage and bookmakers profit.

Not ideal though because most horse races have more than 8 entrants.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Sorry, I was not implying that those were the odds, hence my use of memory. There is a difference between being "in the market" and being the class runner of the field, and able to win on that class alone.
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You did well.
Mahogany the perfect example of a class animal.
 
Keep an eye on this horse: https://www.racing.com/horses/magellan

Really caught my eye when I was watching Pakenham today.

Did everything wrong, very immature type, but as soon as it saw daylight something clicked and it accelerated well and fought out the win.
Was listening to Patrick Moloney's comments after riding it and he basically stated everything that I saw. (was kicking it's head up and also was a bit of a sook at the barriers)

But when they do all that and still win, that's the types of horse I like to watch very closely, because sort out those issues and it's going to be a good horse.
Gonna blackbook it, Sire is a G1 winner.

PS: Patrick Moloney is a very smart jockey.
 
Temploar said:
Keep an eye on this horse: https://www.racing.com/horses/magellan

Really caught my eye when I was watching Pakenham today.

Did everything wrong, very immature type, but as soon as it saw daylight something clicked and it accelerated well and fought out the win.
Was listening to Patrick Moloney's comments after riding it and he basically stated everything that I saw. (was kicking it's head up and also was a bit of a sook at the barriers)

But when they do all that and still win, that's the types of horse I like to watch very closely, because sort out those issues and it's going to be a good horse.
Gonna blackbook it, Sire is a G1 winner.

PS: Patrick Moloney is a very smart jockey.
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Will watch out but give us a yell when it comes up next.
Do you think that there may be some tactical riding in the Cox plate to box Winx in?
Assuming you think it is a good thing (I hope so, love champions), who do you expect to fill in the placings?
 
Maggie5 said:
Will watch out but give us a yell when it comes up next.
Do you think that there may be some tactical riding in the Cox plate to box Winx in?
Assuming you think it is a good thing (I hope so, love champions), who do you expect to fill in the placings?
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The field will likely be strung out a bit, could even see the lightest weighted filly, 47kg Yankee Rose set up a cracking pace to chase her down.
Then I think Winx will be fine.
Ten horse field and suspect the lesser lights this year, Happy Clapper and Happy trails will literally trail back so Winx would need to negotiate 7 competitors so she should be right.
Awesome Rock could do some fighting in the straight but all things considered

It will be Winx about 2 or 3 lengths to HARTNELL then five lengths the field.

If it rains, heavy remain thenconsider Lucia Valentina,

So for me I'd think:

Winx wins.
HARTNELL second (then be favourite for the Melbourne Cup maybe?) Lucia Valentina third.
 
Maggie5 said:
Do you think that there may be some tactical riding in the Cox plate to box Winx in?
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Depends on her draw. If she gets 1-2, maybe, but further out than that Bowman will be happy to sit one out and ride her like the best horse in the race that she is.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Depends on her draw. If she gets 1-2, maybe, but further out than that Bowman will be happy to sit one out and ride her like the best horse in the race that she is.
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Thanks for replying to a novice punter, much appreciated.
 
Below is the field and barrier draw for the 2016 Cox Plate.

No Horse Trainer Barrier Weight

  • 1 HAPPY TRAILS

Paul Beshara

10

59 kg

  • 2 BLACK HEART BART

Darren Weir

6

59kg

  • 3 HARTNELL

John O'Shea

7

59kg

  • 4 HAURAKI

John O'Shea

8

59 kg

  • 5 HAPPY CLAPPER

Patrick Webster

4

59kg

  • 6 VADAMOS

Andre Fabre

2

59 kg

  • 7 AWESOME ROCK

Leon & Troy Corstens

5

59kg

  • 8 WINX

Chris Waller

3

57 kg

  • 9 LUCIA VALENTINA

Kris Lees

9

57kg

  • 10 YANKEE ROSE

David Vandyke

1

47.5
 
The Royal Sampler said:
If you were to imagine a four-horse race, in which the odds were as follows;

Horse A - $2 (Evens, implied 50% chance)
Horse B - $4 (3-1, implied 25% chance)
Horse C - $8 (7-1, implied 12.5% chance)
Horse D - $8 (7-1, implied 12.5% chance)

This would be considered a 100% market, because the total of the horses' implied chances of winning adds up to 100%. You will basically never see this type of market because the bookmaker doesn't have any margin and given proportionate action from his clients, can't make any money.

Instead the bookmaker might draw up the market for the same race like this;

Horse A - $1.90 (9-10, implied 52.63% chance)
Horse B - $3.50 (5-2, implied 28.57% chance)
Horse C - $7 (6-1, implied 14.29% chance)
Horse D - $7 6-1, implied 14.29% chance)

The implied chances now add up to not 100%, but 109.77%, and this is where the bookies make their money. You might see this in a very competitive market close to race time. Normally when you arrive on course, bookmakers will have their markets set to 120%, and the odds creep out as the money comes in and shapes the market.

In short, the bookmakers' markets imply each horse in the race has slightly more chance of winning than they actually have.
Click to expand...
Didn't I explain this already?
 

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Temploar said:
Keep an eye on this horse: https://www.racing.com/horses/magellan

Really caught my eye when I was watching Pakenham today.

Did everything wrong, very immature type, but as soon as it saw daylight something clicked and it accelerated well and fought out the win.
Was listening to Patrick Moloney's comments after riding it and he basically stated everything that I saw. (was kicking it's head up and also was a bit of a sook at the barriers)

But when they do all that and still win, that's the types of horse I like to watch very closely, because sort out those issues and it's going to be a good horse.
Gonna blackbook it, Sire is a G1 winner.

PS: Patrick Moloney is a very smart jockey.
Click to expand...
Simply Heaven is the one out of that Pakenham meeting to follow, will go to a maiden over the mile and give them a tune up.
 
Barrier 3 is a good draw for her on paper, but Yankee Rose will go back and I don't know about Vadamos. Hartnell and Black Heart Bart should race handy and come across in front of Winx. I'd expect her to try to settle about 6th, one out and two back if possible.
 
Not sure what the issue is. Thought there might be some interest in how the market percentage is calculated, rather than just saying "that's the bookmaker's margin, more is bad".

Sorry for responding to a question not addressed to me directly; I have not found that to be a violation of etiquette elsewhere in my tenure on BigFooty.
 
Chautauqua's connections would be spewing with barrier 1. The step up to 1200m suits but he might have to circle the entire field and is an excellent chance of getting boxed in until a gap appears in a short MV straight.
 
The Royal Sampler said:
Not sure what the issue is. Thought there might be some interest in how the market percentage is calculated, rather than just saying "that's the bookmaker's margin, more is bad".

Sorry for responding to a question not addressed to me directly; I have not found that to be a violation of etiquette elsewhere in my tenure on BigFooty.
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There you go, I thought both contributions were good and added something.
Appreciated.
 
Leviathan Pie said:
Geezus, you'd be one of those blokes in the TAB that cheers every 'looming' winner at the 100m mark.

Not going to waste my expertise on those pub punters who think they already know it all, enjoy.
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Pretty sure he was just trying to help a fellow poster just as you were.
Relax LP, no one is questioning your expertise and I'm sure all here would enjoy your thoughts over the carnival. :thumbsu:
 
I'm also intrigued by runners in both the Geelong Cup and Moonee Valley Gold Cup.
Some will need a win to get a potential penalty to jump up the Melb cup ballot order.
Some can at least meet the qualify clauses by placing in either cup.
So they are highly competitive.
 
Any reason for the unusually small fields in our big races This year?

Last years Cox plate had like 15 runners, and the Caulfield cup had a fair few more than what was sent out last week.

Has something changed? Or is the talent pool of horses just not there this year?
 
Leviathan Pie said:
Simply Heaven is the one out of that Pakenham meeting to follow, will go to a maiden over the mile and give them a tune up.
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That race was a maiden as well. Just watched the replay.

If she got out just a touch sooner she would have pipped it on the line, gee the people that backed her would have felt unlucky.

I agree, give it another 200m it'll be scary.

Got a good bloodline too.
 
Temploar said:
That race was a maiden as well. Just watched the replay.

If she got out just a touch sooner she would have pipped it on the line, gee the people that backed her would have felt unlucky.

I agree, give it another 200m it'll be scary.

Got a good bloodline too.
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She's a very nice horse, Temploar. And I was one of the ones who had something on her :screamcat::screamcat::triumph::triumph:

Keep an eye out for her in two weeks time over a mile!
 
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