Hottest 100 2017 voting/predictions

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Gibbsy

Gibbsy

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Pretty late on in the piece for a prediction thread but I believe voting opens tomorrow so we may as well start figuring out what's gonna end up where.

Kendrick's "HUMBLE." is the bookies' fave and has been since markets opened a couple of months back, but I don't think it's a clear-cut winner.

Gang of Youths won the album poll last night and it was also my #1 but like many other great records, they will end up stealing votes off themselves. I'd be surprised if any of their songs went top five. "The Deepest Sighs, The Frankest Shadows" would be their highest poller I think.

In terms of crossover hit chances, the only chance from the list of 2017 ARIA number-one singles would be "Rockstar" by Post Malone. And by chance I mean finishing top 20. For better or worse, streaming has sort of ruined the charts so chart-toppers last a lot longer than they used to. Malone has had a few plays on JJJ I believe but he's clearly a mainstream force now. Given Drake's ubiquity and his lingering presence on Triple J (for whatever reason...) I fully expect him to pick up a fair few votes too. Peking Duk didn't hit number one on the charts but they did feature highly twice and will have two swings at it with "Let You Down" and "Fake Magic". Probably got a welcome boost by winning that ARIA Award too. Lorde is a global megastar despite her indie beginnings and will be right up there.

The late bloomers will be Pnau's "Go Bang" - straight out of the same songbook as "Chameleon" - which I think will finish at least Top 15, and The Wombats' "Lemon to a Knife Fight" which is getting a heap of plays at the right time of the year to finish highly. I don't think it'll win, but I do think it'll finish Top 10. Bookmakers haven't even got a quote for it yet, they're a bit behind there. I have a feeling they might find this thread though.

thewitness are you doing your tallies again this year? I'd be keen to see what you think will go high.

Post your shortlists/votes/predictions in here - save the politics or stuff about the date for another thread, although given the hoohah passed without any commentary here, I think we should be right.
 
I’m definitely seeing it as a two horse race between HUMBLE and Green Light. Slide by Frank Ocean and Calvin Harris will likely do well, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Boys by Charli XCX gets top 10. Let Me Down Easy is the song I’m expecting to vote highest by Gang Of Youths.
 
No vote tallies again from me this year.

I also think "Let Me Down Easy" will be Gang Of Youths highest. And I got on it for the win at $51 many weeks ago, I see its $5 now.

Not intending to bring in any politics of the date change, but I think the date change will have an impact on the makeup of the H100. Certain demographics may boycott due to "pc meddling" and I think the once a year listeners may not vote as much because it doesn't coincide with their Aus day BBQ, having a significant impact on the songs and their possies. I think the crossover hits will slide even further down the list this year. A slide that may have already begun last year.
 

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Missed the price on Humble. What did it open at?

Surprised Slide is 200-1 and Ocean Alley is 150-1. Although, it is a win market so they can be 1000-1, I can’t see them winning.

Asked for a price for Baker Boy, Marryuna, from William Hill. They put it up at 30-1. Think it will do well.

I think PeKing Duk’s tracks are way too short in the market. No where near as good as Stranger which took out the ARIA.

When did markets open? Peed off I missed Gang of Youths prices. They get played a lot on Triple M so should attract a lot of votes.
 
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BuddysBiggestFan said:
Missed the price on Humble. What did it open at?

Surprised Slide is 200-1 and Ocean Alley is 150-1. Although, it is a win market so they can be 1000-1, I can’t see them winning.

Asked for a price for Baker Boy, Marryuna, from William Hill. They put it up at 30-1. Think it will do well.

I think PeKing Duk’s tracks are way too short in the market. No where near as good as Stranger which took out the ARIA.

When did markets open? Peed off I missed Gang of Youths prices. They get played a lot on Triple M so should attract a lot of votes.
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I think there's little point in playing the win markets. Would rather have a ping at Top 5/Top 10, or what I assume will be a market this year which is how many Gang of Youths tracks feature in the 100. I'm gonna say 4 (The Deepest Sighs, Let Me Down Easy, What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out, Say Yes to Life). The latter is a bit of a roughy - it could be any of them really - but I think 3 will be the fave.

There were early markets on SB a few months ago but it was just for winning artist rather than winning song, and Kendrick was paying like $2.50 or something. I don't think HUMBLE has been any longer than $2.75. I can recall seeing The Deepest Sighs at $31 not long after it was released.
 
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thewitness said:
Not intending to bring in any politics of the date change, but I think the date change will have an impact on the makeup of the H100. Certain demographics may boycott due to "pc meddling" and I think the once a year listeners may not vote as much because it doesn't coincide with their Aus day BBQ, having a significant impact on the songs and their possies. I think the crossover hits will slide even further down the list this year. A slide that may have already begun last year.
Click to expand...

That can only be a good thing for purists, right? Will likely mean less "old man yells at cloud" type posts ITT too.

Anyway back on topic. I see Alex Lahey having a couple of entries up fairly high - "Every Day's the Weekend" is a solid chance of featuring in my votes and I think it could go Top 20. The album poll is usually a good indicator of popularity hence she should feature well. Same to Vera Blue, "Mended" might go Top 10.
 
I think Gang of Youths “Let Me Down Easy” can win.

If the Rubens “Hoops” can win, so can this.

Both were played on Commercial radio, ie. Triple M. Can’t believe it was $51.
 
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BuddysBiggestFan said:
I think Gang of Youths “Let Me Down Easy” can win.

If the Rubens “Hoops” can win, so can this.

Both were played on Commercial radio, ie. Triple M. Can’t believe it was $51.
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It still surprises me that “Hoops” won. I just think too many people will be voting for different Gang songs.
 

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Judging from the last few years it'd be safe to suggest that an Aussie act will take the top spot. However, I just don't see Gang of Youths pulling it off. Like others have suggested I think votes will be split between their songs. They're likely to feature heavily in the 20, but I'd be surprised if they got number 1. Although I guess Chet Faker's results in 2014 prove it's possible.

I'm thinking we might get a non-Australian winner for the first time in four years. Possibly either Humble or Green Light. Leaning towards Lorde because I can't dismiss the fact that Kendrick was beaten (somehow) by The Rubens.

Surprised Boys by Charli XCX is nowhere to be found on Sportsbet.
 
It might be a bit of a tin foil hat moment from me, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they gave the win to The Rubens instead Kendrick Lamar purely so they could pump up the ‘importance’ of winning. For The Rubens, winning would’ve been huge, while for Kendrick, he probably couldn’t give a s**t. For Triple J, this means they can get an Aussie act winning and have them in studio, and have them actually care about winning, making the whole thing seem more important. If Kendrick had won, they would have probably only been able to a get a phone call, maybe if that.
 
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NotAMagpieBogan said:
It might be a bit of a tin foil hat moment from me, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if they gave the win to The Rubens instead Kendrick Lamar purely so they could pump up the ‘importance’ of winning. For The Rubens, winning would’ve been huge, while for Kendrick, he probably couldn’t give a s**t. For Triple J, this means they can get an Aussie act winning and have them in studio, and have them actually care about winning, making the whole thing seem more important. If Kendrick won, they’d probably only been able to a get a phone call, maybe if that.
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Didn't that happen when Knights of Cydonia pipped Silverchair's straight lines?

I seem to remember Daniel Johns being in the studio awaiting to be announced the winner, and then they awkwardly came second.
 
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james Dean said:
Didn't that happen when Knights of Cydonia pipped Silverchair's straight lines?

I seem to remember Daniel Johns being in the studio awaiting to be announced the winner, and then they awkwardly came second.
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Johns will never live that down. The story's been repeated enough times for it to be accepted too, even if it never actually happened (I'm not sure either way). The margin was 26 votes or something crazy like that.
 
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BuddysBiggestFan said:
Humble in from $2.50 to $1.95.
Green Light in from $3 to $2.20. (May have been $3.50 earlier)
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Just took the $6 on offer for Green Light at SB. Note that the max bets for most of these things are like, $20, so it's not a moneymaking exercise but more just a bit of fun on the day.
 
Just checked Sportsbet, Chateau by Angus and Julia Stone is a 5.50 in front of Green Light at 6. Am I missing something here? I had to go on Spotify to listen to the song because I couldn’t even remember what it was...
 
NotAMagpieBogan said:
Just checked Sportsbet, Chateau by Angus and Julia Stone is a 5.50 in front of Green Light at 6. Am I missing something here? I had to go on Spotify to listen to the song because I couldn’t even remember what it was...
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$11 on William Hill. Has come in for sure.

So many good songs this year IMO. Finding it very hard to chose 10.
 
Got my votes in:
Royal Blood - Hook, Line & Sinker
Kele Okereke - Streets Been Talkin'
Baker Boy - Marryuna {Ft. Yirrmal}
Rise Against - The Violence
Dan Sultan - Kingdom
Cub Sport - Chasin'
TAPZ - Run Don't Run
Vince Staples - BagBak
Vera Blue - Lady Powers
DZ Deathrays - Shred For Summer
 
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