Hottest 100 2017 voting/predictions

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jack 23 said:
if youre basing it on current warm tunas list...

for Lorde to win it will need people to have voted for it at 100% more frequency than they have so far in the warm tunas count. even after 3% of votes have been counted.

currently 600, needed 1200 to be leading.

thats a big call. interested to see. but i doubt it based on stats.
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I'm not basing my predictions on the warm list, I was basing my comment saying I disagree with elements of the list such as Birthdays and Sally and that I thought Marryuna has a good chance to go higher.

Regarding my thoughts on Let Me Down Easy and Green Light challenging HUMBLE are again where I think the list is wrong. Will they definitely topple HUMBLE, NO, but I think the list is hugely inaccurate in saying HUMBLE has a huge lead.

Songs in the past have appeared to double their instagram predictions. Get lucky went from 15 to 3 and beat out Do I Wanna Know which had twice as many insta votes. Saying HUMBLE is a sure thing I think is very risky given the history with songs from Lorde smashing the prediction sites. At the same time listeners seem to love guy bands so that also give Let Me Down Easy a shot too.

If the list overestimates Kendrick by 25% (from 1200 down to 900 votes) that gives GoYs a chance and then if Lorde jumps 50% from 600 to 900 she is right in the mix too.
 
My mate went on the live chat about that 34-1 market. It was orginally written as rockstar, mans not hot etc > 10.

They told him that meant they all had to make the top 10. Not miss it.

The wording has since changed to what it is above - ie lower than #10. Which is still clear as mud... do they mean 9-1 is lower or 11-100 is lower? Bizarre
 
The person doing these markets woukd be sacked if I was their boss at Sportsbet.

Some markets didn't even make sense they just stated a song name @ $7.50 etc

Dumb dumb dumb
 
So, another mate went on the chat and they told him it meant they all have to miss the top 10. In any event, all the BYO markets are now gone but I thank the young chap who put them up !
 
Jaydon17 said:
So, another mate went on the chat and they told him it meant they all have to miss the top 10. In any event, all the BYO markets are now gone but I thank the young chap who put them up !
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Correct, had $7 on it at 26s myself and just got this response
 

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Haven't listened to a lot this year but SZA has caught my ear. So hopefully something by her does well. Out of the predicted tops Ubu by Methyl Ethel is a bloody catchy song i'd have to say!
 
For those interested I just did a small random sample across social media with 50 50 for both men and women from insta, twit and fb and only posts from profiles with faces. The small sample is quite different from warm tunas, but interesting none the less ;). Let me down easy topped FB, Lorde topped twiitter and Kendrick insta. I only counted those 24 songs, cbf counting more so there are probs a few songs that might have done better than the bottom few on my list. Sample size is pretty small so accuracy could be pretty terrible but I would say songs 1-7 defs top 10.

1 green light 52
2 HUMBLE 51
3 let me down easy 50
4 ubu 39
5 The deepest sighs, the frankest shadows 36
6 chateau 35
7 go bang 27
8 feel it still 22
9 marryuna 21
10 the man 21
11 SWEET 20
12 What can i do if the fire goes out? 20
13 young, dumb & broke 19
14 homemade dynamite 17
15 exactly how you are 17
16 lay it on me 16
17 every day's the weekend 15
18 I havent been taking care of myself 15
19 fake magic 15
20 sally 14
21 not worth hiding 14
22 regular touch 14
23 birthdays 12
24 weekends 12
 
notarobot said:
For those interested I just did a small random sample across social media with 50 50 for both men and women from insta, twit and fb and only posts from profiles with faces. The small sample is quite different from warm tunas, but interesting none the less ;). Let me down easy topped FB, Lorde topped twiitter and Kendrick insta. I only counted those 24 songs, cbf counting more so there are probs a few songs that might have done better than the bottom few on my list. Sample size is pretty small so accuracy could be pretty terrible but I would say songs 1-7 defs top 10.

1 green light 52
2 HUMBLE 51
3 let me down easy 50
4 ubu 39
5 The deepest sighs, the frankest shadows 36
6 chateau 35
7 go bang 27
8 feel it still 22
9 marryuna 21
10 the man 21
11 SWEET 20
12 What can i do if the fire goes out? 20
13 young, dumb & broke 19
14 homemade dynamite 17
15 exactly how you are 17
16 lay it on me 16
17 every day's the weekend 15
18 I havent been taking care of myself 15
19 fake magic 15
20 sally 14
21 not worth hiding 14
22 regular touch 14
23 birthdays 12
24 weekends 12
Click to expand...


nearly pointless data mate. if I count 1 set of votes, Man's Not Hot wins....
 
jack 23 said:
perhaps instagram bias.

but quantity is key

i did it last year similar in the last week and Redbone won by a mile. quantity is key
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