How accurate were our Phantom drafters?

Discussion in 'Phantom Drafts' started by random numbers, Dec 1, 2016.

Put it out there
  1. random numbers

    random numbers Draftee

    Collingwood
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    I have done an analysis comparing 8 of our phantom drafters to the actual result. I only chose those that did a full draft. I chose in order in which these Phantoms currently appear on the board. Apologies to don Patch, Jeff Poulter and Chris (and maybe others) but I got tired of further analysis and besides which the overall pattern was clearly consistent.


    I wasn’t concerned with exact position, but rather whether the phantom drafters were more or less in sync with the thinking of the professionals. Thus as an arbitrary guide, I judged a phantom call within 10 positions of the actual as accurate.

    Because the file was too big I broke it into 2 uploads draft positions 1-40 and above 40 draft 1-240.jpg


    1. Yellow were those that slid by more than 10 positions from actual (with actual position numbered)

    2. Green were Bolters who rose more than 10 positions from actual (with actual position numbered)

    3. Red were undrafted

    4. Blue went to rookie

    Overall, for the top 20, the phantom drafters were very good ie. They had a good idea of who the top candidates were.

    From there, the predictions became progressively less reliable.

    The 20-40 range had about a 50% accuracy (mean 10.1/20, median 10/20, mode 10/20) with a high of 14/20 and a low of 6/20. The inaccuracies were dominated by sliders ie. those who the phantom chose at a higher position than they actually went. The great majority of the sliders actually went later in the draft with only a couple failing to be drafted or going to rookie.


    In the 41 and above, the phantoms were totally unreliable with the great majority being inaccurate. About half the inaccuracies were due to bolters (ie. Those who were actually drafted higher than the phantoms predicted). The other half were those who failed to be drafted or were drafted in the rookie.


    The most notable bolters were Long, McLarty, Fisher and Lipinski.

    The most notable sliders were Scharenberg, Sproule and Walker
     
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  2. random numbers

    random numbers Draftee

    Collingwood
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  3. jason pm

    jason pm Norm Smith Medallist

    Brisbane Lions
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    looks like Gee Dub was the most accurate then.
     
  4. Gee Dub

    Gee Dub Norm Smith Medallist

    Port Adelaide
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    While we are at it, I was more happy this year with my ability to pick the sliders. Battle and Clarke were two that I rated much lower than others and they slid right down. Sam Walker, Pat Kerr, Luke Ryan and Sproule were others who I don't rate in my personal rankings and didn't think would get picked up/go much later than predicted and I was right on that front.
     
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  5. Yojimbo

    Yojimbo Premiership Player

    Western Bulldogs
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    That guy on the extreme left nailed it, Actual, he is the man.
    To err is human, to edit is common.;)
     
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  6. Bicks

    Bicks Premium Platinum

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    grundog49 :thumbsu: the only one that had Matty Signorello getting drafted, anyone that saw his game against the Rebels where he more than held his own against a talent laden Rebels' midfield of Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry, Willem Drew and Cedric Cox would have seen how draftable he was....fortunately Adelaide's Chief Recruiter Hamish Ogilvie was there that day though I believe he was already on his radar. Will turn out to be the "steal" of this draft IMO.
     
  7. D_P_S

    D_P_S Premium Platinum

    Essendon
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    Pretty happy that I got a few later picks to the right clubs with Ratugolea to Cats, Williamson to Blues, Begley to Bombers, Poholke to Crows and I think I was the only one that had Phillips getting drafted. First round was a bit iffy but I updated a few days before the draft
     
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  8. Bishop

    Bishop Club Legend

    Richmond
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    It was funny, I spoke to one club recruiter in August and he was adamant he wasn't good enough to be drafted. Time will tell of course - but when i saw Signorello at Knights or at school games he was always one of the better players. But skills needed work and he was also a handball first, kick second player. But there was always something about him...
     
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  9. Bicks

    Bicks Premium Platinum

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    It wasn't Haggis then....

    Dodoro?
     
  10. grundog49

    grundog49 Club Legend

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    Sig fills that need of a midfielder forward once Douglas retires. Marks overhead and with some more development, could be a very strong player for the Crows.
     
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  11. t_94

    t_94 Club Legend

    St Kilda
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    To be honest I'm always much more interested in phantom drafter's appraisals in each player, rather than where they go, which will always be a bit hit and miss.
     
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  12. Ysaye

    Ysaye Club Legend

    Fremantle
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    Yes I suspect that most phantom drafters would much rather pick an "order of AFL performance" and accurately describe how they will play at the top level then having the closest to the actual draft order (although given the better information of professional drafters, these are not going to be entirely independent of on another).