How Bad Are We?

[Dr Ralph Dagg]

Like many, I'm all a bit het up at the fact that we are currently 12th. So I thought I'd take a bit of a deeper look and make some comparisons to see if we are as bad as we think.

So we've played 10 games. For the first 4 of those we had no Farmer, Johnson, Black, Schammer, Peake. Hase and Bell were down on form or not having an impact. Crowley was not fully fit. so we had some reltaively serious personnel issues. A key issue is our key forwards accuracy has dropped off by about 20%.

Of the 10 games we have played 7 of the top 8. We have beaten 3rd and 5th at home. We have lost to 1st at home. We lost to 2nd by 4 goals, to 4th by 9 points and 6th by 10 points. We have only played bottom 8 three times and have lost one of those to Brisbane who are very inconsistent. The played really well against us -- the bastards!

So it seems we can mix it with anyone. Especially, if we have a better run with injuries and suspensions. The next three games are against teams outside the 8. If we win those we are 7 and 6. Leaves 6 games to win from 9 for a half-decent season. Forget Sydney at the SCG. I'm going to that game so we are bound to lose.

Leaves 6 from 8. I'd think we are a chance in all 8 of those. We play both Adelaide teams at AAMI and Saints at Telstra. These are winnable. The rest are all at home. Except for 1, they are against top 8 sides including Geelong and West Coast.

Its a tough ask. My heart says we can do it. My head says there isn't enough evidence over the last four seasons for us to be that potent or consistent.

So its doable but can we do it?

 

[theGav56]

It is an interesting analysis. Longmuir is someone who should figure in your omissions too as he is a top 22 player who is now long term unavailable.

I think another thing that has been a major problem with us is that we carry in our squad too many players who have cronic injury issues which creates a serious depth defecit, especially in some key aeas (fullback, and midfield). I include in that list Browne, Dunn, Haddril and Thornton. I would even add into it Haines, who while he is not on our list in effect took up a squad position for a developing midfielder, but never produced a result on the ledger for us. Schofield could be considered another non-productive player taking up room on our list for a couple of years. Collectively that leaves a hole in our squad.

 

[Jetau]

It's that we're that bad. I thought that the Collingwood game was close to our best effort for the year. If Pav had dobbed a couple more we would have had a stirring victory, and the season would be back on track.

Unfortunately, we're staring down the barrel of 4-6 and therefore ANOTHER wasted season.

I'm starting to think that the writing is on the wall for this year. Little things have gone against us all the time, and bigger things some of the time. I think we are doing a Geelong of 2006. Look at them now, that could be us next year.

I can't take another 11-11 season. That will kill me. But it could be on the cards.

 

[Ripper]

I have been thinking about that a bit this weekend and have come to the conclusion that even though we are a couple of wins down and have been short of many players, "the process" is actually better than at the same point last year.

Last year at round ten our percentage was only 93%.

This year it is 97% .

If we can win the next two We should be 6-6 with a %age of better than 100%

That was where the pies were in 2003 and went on to finish 2nd.

There is no doubt the gods have been conspiring against us as We have not had any luck at all so far this season.

Round 1 - Port had their incredible purple patch kicking all those goals in a row from difficult positions - some thing they have not replicated since.

Round 2 - Lloyd & Lucas kicked 9 goals 1 between them some from difficult positions - some thing they have not replicated since.


Round 10 - Rocca & Neon Leon kick 9 goals straight - Pav get the yips - What would be the odds of that happening again?

Although We all agree we are stuttering along a bit far below our best , we are the only team to get within 4 goals of the cats in the last 5 weeks and in hindsight the win against the Hawks was a good effort.

We are actually better placed personel wise for the last part of the season than we were in 2006.

Hase looks to be back to somewhere near his best and looks to be still improving - contrast that with 2006.

Scotty too Hotty was magnificent streaming out of defense and will get better - He missed the last half of the season.

Tarrant has added a lot and will only work better with the others as more games are played.

Peaker is starting to regain some touch.

We havn't even seen the Wizard or Scham yet.

We are getting players back now as we were still losing them in 2006.

There is a huge upside to the rest of the season and it will be exciting and edge of the seat stuff. The thing that pleased me the most Friday night is the group still believed they would win right to the end.

The club and supporters just have to hold our collective nerve.

As a footnote the last time Pav got the yips in 2005 He turned it around quick smart and kicked 20+ goals straight.

 

[BuffaloClub]

I agree Dr Dagg - we'll be fine. But you also have to look at our opponents in the bottom half of the eight. They are not teams noted for the long haul, player management and conditioning have some of these teams flying from Feb (NAB Cup time) to July then fading away. Unlike them, I believe we will play our best footy from here on. For example, will a top performer and finals favoiurite Adelaide get stronger and faster or will they be knackered and run ragged from using the oval as a sprint track, forward and back for four quarters in their flooding frenzy. Also, look at the up-coming fixtures our opponents are facing, they're more challenging than Freo's. These are factors you should always consider before slashing wrists or calling for CC to be sacked.

 

[dominguez]

As a footnote the last time Pav got the yips in 2005 He turned it around quick smart and kicked 20+ goals straight.

His first two kicks on Sunday are really important, if he misses them he could get the yips for a few weeks. We need Pav to kick a couple early for his confidence.

 

[raffrox]

This year is similar to Geelongs last year. Highly rated but for a variety of reasons, they stuffed it. But development of the list still occurred and they had the patience to not change the coach or the list. Now they are a very good side.

Freo will just miss or just make the 8. Get eliminated in week one or two in the finals and thats about it.

Next year we'll still have the same nucleus but will we have the patience to not change our list too much or to not dump CC? I really don't know.

 

[dugrene]

I cant quote everybody's post so I'll just have to report you all for being on drugs or something.
This is the Freo board and it should not have to tolerate so much sense in one topic.....

Especially our parallel with Geelong's last year and how their Club did not panic.

I've been messing with the old ladder predictor and like BuffaloClub said the other teams above us have their own problems in the weeks ahead.

Nothing is better in Footy than winning and like a lot of people on this board, I think we have a good chance pocketing 4 points in each of the next three games.

I'm going to declare my hand regarding CC and say that he should be given another two years at the end of the break. If we fall in a heap completely this year and finish less than 10 and 12 then like someone said we can afford now to pay him out.
But doubt we will play that bad.

 

[estibador]

I'm going to declare my hand regarding CC and say that he should be given another two years at the end of the break. If we fall in a heap completely this year and finish less than 10 and 12 then like someone said we can afford now to pay him out.
But doubt we will play that bad.

What's the point of doing that when we can just wait and see how the season pans out? Then if we fall in a heap we won't have to pay him out. It's not like other clubs are beating down his door.

 

[Ripper]

What's the point of doing that when we can just wait and see how the season pans out? Then if we fall in a heap we won't have to pay him out. It's not like other clubs are beating down his door.

Spot on , there is no need.

It it is proabably why Pav is waiting till the end of the year.

If the club self destructs He will probably be out of here.

 

[estibador]

It it is proabably why Pav is waiting till the end of the year.

If the club self destructs He will probably be out of here.

If he keeps kicking like Friday night it's not going to help our cause.

Assuming we do self destruct I think one of the advantages of chasing a coach like Sheedy is it would be a big incentive for Pav to stay.

 

[Ripper]

If he keeps kicking like Friday night it's not going to help our cause.

Assuming we do self destruct I think one of the advantages of chasing a coach like Sheedy is it would be a big incentive for Pav to stay.

Maybe , I can't see him at his age wanting to go through the untried coach thing again though.

 

[Ripper]

I am starting to brighten up.

So far this season , We ahave been.

9 points & 5 x 50M penalties worse than the Premiers against the Bombres at TD.

3 goals better than the Premiers against the bombres at SS.

11 goals better than the Premiers against the Saints at Subi.

Top four spot here we come - You heard it here first.

 

[estibador]

We're also 8 ladder positions worse off than them unfortunately.

On the bright side, we're only 2 wins off 5th spot.

 

[Ripper]

We're also 8 ladder positions worse off than them unfortunately.

On the bright side, we're only 2 wins off 5th spot.

For now.

We only have 4 away games to go vs 5.

The above are the only games where we played the same team at the same venue.

 

[dominguez]

Chris Judd and Andrew Embley are a little bit better than Farmer and Schammer though.

I'd never bet on them, but I reckon they'll be around $6 for the flag if they lose next week which is fantastic odds considering they'll get Hansen, Judd, Fletcher, Embley and probably Cousins back before the finals.

 

[estibador]

Chris Judd and Andrew Embley are a little bit better than Farmer and Schammer though.

Embley better than Farmer? You're avin a laff surely?

 

[pistol17]

Embley better than Farmer? You're avin a laff surely?

Different players who are worth their weight in gold for their respective clubs... Hard to say which player is better.

 

[dominguez]

Embley better than Farmer? You're avin a laff surely?

Probably on par, but Judd + Embley >>>>> Farmer + Schammer.

The mob up the road lose very few games with Embley in the side.

 

[peppy la pew]

Good bump Rip, gotta love the optimism.

The Wiz will transform the forward line and hopefully Pav will find his range

 

[Ripper]

Different players who are worth their weight in gold for their respective clubs... Hard to say which player is better.

Yep. The facts are we are one game behind and 10% better than We were at round 12, 2006.

That 10% is virtually worth a game as last year we had to finish a game clear of 4th 5th 6th.

Beat the Blooze and we will be effectively a game better off than we were at round 13 in 2006.

Crunch game for the premiers this week , lose to Adelaide and they will have a 3 game losing streak , the same as We had at the start of the year.

I have been through the ladder predictor thing and reckon we will pass them if we win the derby.

<Insert 50+ goal per year forward here>

 

[dominguez]

Did the ladder predictor tell you that the loss to Port in round one was a good thing? Should Connolly be re-signed if we make the eight and fail to win a final Ripper?

Carlton will be no pushover, after that we have a shocking 5 game run. Winning 4 of the next 6 would be a very good result, leaving us at 9-9 and needing to win 3 of our last 4. Adelaide at AAMI round 16, Geelong at Subi round 17 and the Eagles at Subi round 18 will be a season defining 3 match run. Win all 3 and we'll play finals (assuming we beat the blues and roos at home).

I reckon we'll go 6 and 4 in the run home, miss the 8, and Connolly will get a 2 year deal on the back of our strong finish to the season.

 

[Ripper]

Did the ladder predictor tell you that the loss to Port in round one was a good thing? Should Connolly be re-signed if we make the eight and fail to win a final Ripper?

Carlton will be no pushover, after that we have a shocking 5 game run. Winning 4 of the next 6 would be a very good result, leaving us at 9-9 and needing to win 3 of our last 4. Adelaide at AAMI round 16, Geelong at Subi round 17 and the Eagles at Subi round 18 will be a season defining 3 match run. Win all 3 and we'll play finals (assuming we beat the blues and roos at home).

I reckon we'll go 6 and 4 in the run home, miss the 8, and Connolly will get a 2 year deal on the back of our strong finish to the season.

No one is a pushover these days.

Fact is we have been in every game at 3/4 time , that seems to indicate that our standard of play is good enough for most of the game.

There is no reason to think that we won't run out games better at the pointy end of the season as we did last year.

WC were 5 -8 in 2004 , had the three games at home and finished 7th with 13 wins.

 

[dominguez]

I reckon we definately want the eagles to finish in the top four if we make the eight, and their results in recent weeks have actually hurt us. Infact if they won the rest of their games (apart from the derby obviously) they'd do us a massive favour because in the final ten rounds they play almost every team currently sitting 5th through 13th. We could end up needing to win our last 2 games and needing the eagles to win their last 2 games to knock out the bombers and saints.

If we finish 8th we'll probably play Sydney, Adelaide, Collingwood or Hawthorn in an elimination final. I reckon we'd much rather play a Victorian team than those two experienced finals teams.

I noticed that you dodged my question.

 

[dominguez]

WC were 5 -8 in 2004 , had the three games at home and finished 7th with 13 wins.

Their record at Subi is much better than ours though. What's our win loss over the last 4 years at Subi? Off the top of my head I'd say 6-6, 7-5, 8-4, 4-2 = 25-17. I think they have lost 2 of 25 to visiting teams, or something similar.