How big can Melbourne FC become?

[Gordon Farkas]

Absolute disaster for the ski industry.

First Covid and now a Melbourne premiership. Could it possibly get any worse for them?

 

[PerthBoy86]

I posted a thread awhile ago asking if Melbourne were one of the 'big 4' clubs back in the 60s. I mean, they were one of the most successful so I'd think so. Yet they're now one of the smallest in members and supporters. The obvious main reason is lack of success: since 1964 Hawthorn have won 12 of their 13, while Melbourne have now won 1 of their 13. Amazing the two are even now. That's like Port Adelaide overtaking Hawthorn or Richmond. I think the MFC will grow, but unless they build a massive dynasty don't think they'll ever be one of the big clubs. I feel every since they took away the Demons logo their identity seems a bit watered down too.

 

[maxiboy238]

need to bring back this to create an identity

 

[demondavey]

It’s very interesting to look at Hawthorn and Melbourne as a comparison, and then two figures who made each club very special. From 1900 - 1964 it was Melbourne with 12 flags. Virtually as soon we fell away Hawthorn then dominated the next 55 years. We sacked Norm Smith in 1965. Hawthorn brought John Kennedy into the club as coach and he won the 1961 GF.

As a player Kennedy wasn’t able to win a flag but he did harden the club up. He stated that Hawthorn was seen as a soft club. A club for white collar boys. He said they needed to get some campaigner about them and get their hands dirty.

It’s a really interesting analysis of culture. Clearly Melbourne took a nose dive post the Norm Smith sacking and never recovered properly. Hawthorn turned their culture about when Kennedy instilled the winning attitude in them. It goes to show that really important people can get the club up.

Essendon had Sheedy.
Geelong had Cook and Costa.
Hawthorn had Kennett, Newbold, Clarkson.
Richmond had Hardwick, O’Neill and Gale.

Does Melbourne have that? Can Goodwin and our administration set a culture of success for decades to come?

 

[demondavey]

View attachment 1247558
need to bring back this to create an identity

There is nothing identifying about that. Skip the logo and that’s Melbourne.

 

[demondavey]

First Covid and now a Melbourne premiership. Could it possibly get any worse for them?

Range Rovers recalled with air bag faults? Another private school scandal involving a teacher with slippery hands?

 

[maxiboy238]

Look in all serous though Collingwood have one like

It’s very interesting to look at Hawthorn and Melbourne as a comparison, and then two figures who made each club very special. From 1900 - 1964 it was Melbourne with 12 flags. Virtually as soon we fell away Hawthorn then dominated the next 55 years. We sacked Norm Smith in 1965. Hawthorn brought John Kennedy into the club as coach and he won the 1961 GF.

As a player Kennedy wasn’t able to win a flag but he did harden the club up. He stated that Hawthorn was seen as a soft club. A club for white collar boys. He said they needed to get some campaigner about them and get their hands dirty.

It’s a really interesting analysis of culture. Clearly Melbourne took a nose dive post the Norm Smith sacking and never recovered properly. Hawthorn turned their culture about when Kennedy instilled the winning attitude in them. It goes to show that really important people can get the club up.

Essendon had Sheedy.
Geelong had Cook and Costa.
Hawthorn had Kennett, Newbold, Clarkson.
Richmond had Hardwick, O’Neill and Gale.

Does Melbourne have that? Can Goodwin and our administration set a culture of success for decades to come?

blues had barassi in the mid to late 60s as well
yep I think so on paper should be in contention for next two years at least even more

 

[Cotchins Hair Piece]

Absolute disaster for the ski industry*

In Australia. We all travel to Japan in January-February, the pow is ideal then.

I think we’ll push 65k members next season. And that’s real members, none of these let’s count our pets and the pay $1 now and pay the rest later but never do but we’ll count it memberships.

 

[demondavey]

In Australia. We all travel to Japan in January-February, the pow is ideal then.

I think we’ll push 65k members next season. And that’s real members, none of these let’s count our pets and the pay $1 now and pay the rest later but never do but we’ll count it memberships.

Or Aspen.

65k? That’s a big jump.

 

[smasha]

Demons must have been a big club when they won that amazing amount of flags in their famous period under Norm Smith.

I wonder if the Dees giant will arise?

All good.

Imagine 95k at the G for Anzac Eve under the lights,spinetingling.

 

[Cotchins Hair Piece]

Demons must have been a big club when they won that amazing amount of flags in their famous period under Norm Smith.

I wonder if the Dees giant will arise?

All good.

Imagine 95k at the G for Anzac Eve under the lights,spinetingling.

Deciding to turn to crap when the VFL began to be broadcast on TV really killed us.

 

[Jibroni]

I think the next 5 to 7 years will present some great opportunities for both Melbourne and Western Bulldogs to capture new fans in Victoria and possibly a creating a long term rivalry similar to what the Hawks-Bombers did in the 80's, Geelong- Hawks, and Richmond, Collingwood and Carlton have generated since the 1970's.

Nothing is certain in life but the future looks bright for a change.

 

[footyfan1978]

1900 - 1965: Collingwood, Essendon, Melbourne, Carlton (Geelong 5th, Richmond 6th)

Do not think it is as straight forward as you think.
If I read back in history Fitzroy were a big club at one point too early in the 1900's. I suspect it was Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon, Fitzroy and South Melbourne and Collingwood would have got a lot bigger in 1920's and 30's.
Carlton and Essendon have probably always had big followings as they were winning premierships before and after breakaway VFL started in 1897. I think clubs like Fitzroy and South were the clubs that were not able to grow their support after the World Wars and so Collingwood and Richmond took a lot of the slack there. Then when Hawks, North and Dogs come into league, South and Fitzroy dwindled more as they just were not winning flag much after 30's and 40's. Melbourne still were in 1950s and early 60's. But then in 70's clubs like North and Hawks become more trendy to follow so Melbourne just had the worst period to drop whilst other big clubs from early in century like Essendon, Carlton and now Richmond were winning some in 60's to not be in wilderness for long. Fitzroy becoming nomads and not winning any flags since 1944 meant by time I following footy they just about smallest following. I think Melbourne to lesser extent become smaller due to same type of wilderness since 64. Melbourne unlike Fitzroy got a chance to re-grow. It is oldest club in the game so has a lot of appeal if success starts to become more common now.

 

[footyfan1978]

Deciding to turn to crap when the VFL began to be broadcast on TV really killed us.

The is another factor too.

 

[Andy_Mac]

What makes a club a big club though? Premierships or members? Whilst Richmond, Collingwood, Carlton and Essendon have the most members, they have amassed 4 premierships between them this century and seen 9 GF appearances. This is obviously very skewed to Richmond and Collingwood. Geelong has 70,000 odd members. I would think since 2007 they have maximised their exposure and added a significant part to that 70,000. The same with Hawthorn who have 77,000.

Now, West Coast have the most members and are huge in WA. There a lot of people and the Eagles are traditionally incredibly successful. They’ve pretty much been playing finals since they joined. They really are their own state team given Fremantle have been underwhelming.

If I look at Melbourne in terms of growth, then look at how Geelong and Hawthorn grew to 70,000+ members, I think we have to have a really big decade. Since 2007 and 2008 the Cats and Hawks have been on the map. It’s taken a long time to build that membership base through success. I think to amass another 20,000 members we would have to see an 8-10 year period of regular finals and probably 2 more premierships.

Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, Richmond really dominated pre 2000. 56 premierships were won by them from say, 1900 to 2000. Hawthorn since 1960 won 9 and Melbourne won 12 all before 1965. But Melbourne since 1965 were awful, hence why we never kept up with those 4 big teams. Hawthorn started to turn into the other big team in the seventies then exploded in the eighties.

I think it’s inevitable that the big 4 has more success over the next 20 years, so I can’t see them not being relevant. Melbourne can make up some ground if they can get to 15 flags and become regulars in the top 8.

West Coast will just do their own thing. They’ll Bob up every decade and win a flag. That’ll get them another 5 thousand members.

We finished this year with what 55,000 members? Knowing there are still something like 22,000 MCC members that Melbourne supporters, but not members you'd have to think a large portion of those will come across. And that's before the natural bandwagon bounce you get from the general public.

I wouldn't underestimate the size of the latent supporter base. I live on the surf coast, heartland of the cats, and by years end there was almost as many kids running around at Auskick in dee's gear as there were cats.

We should hit 70,000 member in a canter next year, especially if crowds are back.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

this one I believe is the work of Roy Morgan Research… very reputable organisation and they would have done rigorous analysis and plenty of investigation and research to come up with these results..

Its certainly not just guesswork.. the figures would be pretty reliable. although this one looks to be an older version.. the latest I could find is the 2019.. they would only be getting more and more accurate the more they undertake the analysis..

View attachment 1247526

I'm not sure how they what they are measuring here, but I'd think that you ask anyone from Sydney who doesn't follow AFL to choose a team and I'm sure most would say Sydney. Just like most here will select Melbourne Storm if asked which NRL team they would follow.

I'm assuming the 34% jump in 2019 for the Eagles is due to winning the GF in 2018. Melbourne's may be for playing off in the prelim.
Hawthorn dropping 28% and Doggies dropping 20% suggests to me this analysis is just as flawed as any other.

But again, I don't understand what it's actually measuring.

 

[demondavey]

Do not think it is as straight forward as you think.
If I read back in history Fitzroy were a big club at one point too early in the 1900's. I suspect it was Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon, Fitzroy and South Melbourne and Collingwood would have got a lot bigger in 1920's and 30's.
Carlton and Essendon have probably always had big followings as they were winning premierships before and after breakaway VFL started in 1897. I think clubs like Fitzroy and South were the clubs that were not able to grow their support after the World Wars and so Collingwood and Richmond took a lot of the slack there. Then when Hawks, North and Dogs come into league, South and Fitzroy dwindled more as they just were not winning flag much after 30's and 40's. Melbourne still were in 1950s and early 60's. But then in 70's clubs like North and Hawks become more trendy to follow so Melbourne just had the worst period to drop whilst other big clubs from early in century like Essendon, Carlton and now Richmond were winning some in 60's to not be in wilderness for long. Fitzroy becoming nomads and not winning any flags since 1944 meant by time I following footy. I think Melbourne to lesser extent become smaller due to same type of wilderness since 64. Melbourne unlike Fitzroy got a chance to re-grow. It is oldest club in the game so has a lot of appeal if success starts to become more common now.

Fair points.

 

[Jimi]

If I look at Melbourne in terms of growth, then look at how Geelong and Hawthorn grew to 70,000+ members, I think we have to have a really big decade. Since 2007 and 2008 the Cats and Hawks have been on the map. It’s taken a long time to build that membership base through success. I think to amass another 20,000 members we would have to see an 8-10 year period of regular finals and probably 2 more premierships.

70k is very doable next year. Sleeping giant.

 

[Rotayjay]

Being an ex Victorian living in Perth for last 15 years I’ve met probably about 5 Dees fans in that time here

Where the hell did they all come from getting to the GF at Optus?

it was pleasantly very surprising to see so many there at the game

Considering no Melbourne-based Dees supporters used up tickets due to border restrictions, that was probably almost every Dees supporter in Perth at the game (plus many from Tasmania, Queensland, SA etc). Also a commentator pointed out that some of them might have been Dockers and Eagles fans who had Melbourne as their VFL team before the Dockers and Eagles were formed.

 

[Ambrosia]

I don’t think success has as much impact on attracting supporters as it used to given that their are a lot more games broadcasted on TV.

 

[Ron The Bear]

If I read back in history Fitzroy were a big club at one point too early in the 1900's.

Fitzroy was first or second on the premiership table for 52/100 seasons in the VFL/AFL. Even when they finished they were a respectable 7th.

 

[Ron The Bear]

this one I believe is the work of Roy Morgan Research… very reputable organisation and they would have done rigorous analysis and plenty of investigation and research to come up with these results..

Its certainly not just guesswork.. the figures would be pretty reliable. although this one looks to be an older version.. the latest I could find is the 2019.. they would only be getting more and more accurate the more they undertake the analysis..

Not sure that survey means much in practical terms. If asked to nominate the AFLW team I support, I'd say Richmond, but that doesn't mean I'd pay to attend a game or even remember to turn the TV on.

 

[dave10]

We finished this year with what 55,000 members? Knowing there are still something like 22,000 MCC members that Melbourne supporters, but not members you'd have to think a large portion of those will come across. And that's before the natural bandwagon bounce you get from the general public.

I wouldn't underestimate the size of the latent supporter base. I live on the surf coast, heartland of the cats, and by years end there was almost as many kids running around at Auskick in dee's gear as there were cats.

We should hit 70,000 member in a canter next year, especially if crowds are back.

The Demons supporter base would’ve on a par with Geelong and Hawthorn in my view. Having won the premiership I think a lift of between 20-25% is certainly likely and achievable. That would take them close to 70,000.

However, they don’t have the numbers of a Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and Richmond. In the case of Carlton and Essendon, both have over 80,000 members having basically had 20 years in the wilderness. That’s the reality when reviewing the size of the Demons fanbase.

The Dees will get a real boost in membership. The AFL will schedule them in big time slots so the crowds will also takeoff, enjoying a healthy increase in footy neutrals following their every game. Just as the Tigers have enjoyed.

Challenge will be to capitalise on this success and growing its supporter base. The Hawks achieved overall growth thanks to nearly 10 years at the top. However it’s membership if 77,000 includes nearly 10,000 Tasmanians which distorts its relative supporter base size in absolute terms. The Bulldogs haven’t capitalised on their 2016 flag, at least from afar.

Melbourne have a decent following. Not one of the biggest. They will need a decade of success and fully capitalise on this sustained period to have any real chance if elevating itself to the upper reaches of the club support table.

 

[footyfan1978]

Fitzroy was first or second on the premiership table for 52/100 seasons in the VFL/AFL. Even when they finished they were a respectable 7th.

Fitzroy were first club in league to get to 4th flag in this league.
I think they also the first to get their 5th, 6th and 7th flags up.
They were on 7 flags in 1922.
So do not have any doubt they had big following in the period.
They were probably big rivals with suburbs on either side of them of Carlton and Collingwood as they meet in quite a few of their grand finals.

 

[Rotayjay]

Not sure that survey means much in practical terms. If asked to nominate the AFLW team I support, I'd say Richmond, but that doesn't mean I'd pay to attend a game or even remember to turn the TV on.

Another reason why financial membership numbers are a good indicator. If you're going to pony up cash, you're probably not a disinterested casual fan.

I agree with the poster above in that Melbourne's half-century in the wilderness is probably a factor in being one of the smaller supporter bases.

Most people inherit their team of support from their parents. When your team has been crap for years and you weren't that big a fan in the first place, you might not teach your kid to follow the family team or stop them from picking some other random side that is having more success. Like first-generation, second-generation and third-generation immigrant families - they can get more Australianised with each generation. Go through a couple of generations of fathers and sons who don't feel like going to the footy together because the side is bad, and the tradition fades.