Opinion How can this Geelong side be stopped?

[PJays]

Yes I know if we go 1-of-2 in those other hypothetical games we lose a win. But based on our win rate that DID exist against top 8 sides, we were basically as likely to go 2-0 as we were to go 1-1 (1-1 is fractionally more likely but the difference is negligible)

Fair enough

If I could be bothered I'd calculate results against what I perceive as the tiers of the ladder (based on a rough combination of wins and percentage and my assessment of fixture difficulty)

Something like this

- Elite- Gee, Mel, Sydney, Bris, Freo

- Good- Richmond, Coll

- Average- Carl, Dogs, Saints, Port

- Mediocre- Gold Coast, GWS, Haw, Ess, Adelaide

- Struggle Street- North and WC

I'd then assess results against each group with more weighting towards the higher groups

Would be an interesting exercise

I suspect it'd be close ish because that top group has all won and lost some against other top teams

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

Geelong have CLEARLY been the best side. By a margin.

I don't buy the Prestia argument on that night. I think that actually steeled us. Without the incident I don't think we get close.
They've been the best team in transition from D50 to F50, and the best at STOPPING transition.

The only other side to rank #1 in both at the end of the season in the last 30 years was the 07 Cats.

If the Cats don't win it from here, it's more than likely they have not handled the occasion. Because their best football has been superior to anyone elses this year.

 

[footy75]

Cats to lose.

Best team in it.

If Melbourne finish 5th or 6th it would take Geelong a monumental choke for them not to win it.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

They were. Objectively.

Find me some other teams with combined double ups having a W/L of 35-70 and/or similar percentage.

I'll wait.

Well I think everyone's tiring a bit of this angle to be fair, so I won't delve too far into the archives and stop my search at... Sydney, 2022. 37-68 (and actually an easier set of opponents than we've had heading into the last round). But strictly speaking, you're correct their run will have been tougher: on average their double up opponents have averaged an imposing 7.4 wins, not a hapless 7.0 like the clowns Geelong's been gifted games against.

Are you being serious?

Essendon defeated Brisbane and Sydney. West Coast has won TWO GAMES all year and most of their 19 losses haven't been close.

I don't really care what they did against Brisbane and Sydney; I'm a bit more interested in what happened when Geelong played them. It wasn't much of a contest and we're a lot better now than we were in round 1.

Merely looking at the win loss record of the opponent is pretty simplistic. It ignores the fact that only getting one game against West Coast is pretty good, if that one game is at home. If you're playing them at Optus and they're not fielding WAFL top up players, chances are it won't be a picnic.

What about a home game vs Sydney?

I can play along. Just as apparently Geelong would be underdogs if they were travelling to Brisbane this week (very debatable considering the odds of the Brisbane v Melbourne game currently), Geelong would be comfortable favourites for a home game against Sydney this weekend. So more likely to win than not.

Thanks for admitting my point- Melbourne with a much tougher run


28 Point win at a venue that's worth about 2 goals to Geelong.

You think an equivalent 16 point win, in 1 game from 21 adds a length?

I don't.

I dunno man, with all the hypotheticals and racing terminology being thrown around, it's getting a bit abstract for me.

I know last year when the Dees won the flag, they did the job at GMHBA and earned top spot. This year they didn't and it wasn't especially close. Sure, Geelong should have factored in PJays 12 point handicap and really put the foot down, but sometimes you just have to be happy with the four points.

 

[STPer18]

Other teams are lucky they didn't have to face us more to be frank.

 

[PJays]

Well I think everyone's tiring a bit of this angle to be fair, so I won't delve too far into the archives and stop my search at... Sydney, 2022. 37-68

Ok. Fair.

Geelong's got the easiest fixture of 2022 but only marginally easier than Sydney.

I don't really care what they did against Brisbane and Sydney;

You should because it's 100% relevant to the discussion

Merely looking at the win loss record of the opponent is pretty simplistic.

I agree

It's just an objective factor that can be easily analysed.

I haven't gone into another reason why Geelong's Home and Away performances are inflated compared to Melbourne- the advantages of KP

If you're playing them at Optus and they're not fielding WAFL top up players, chances are it won't be a picnic.

Even though they've lost most of those games comfortably?

The data disagrees with you- last 7 games in Perth 1 win, 6 losses and none of those losses particularly close (16 points the closest vs Adelaide)

I can play along. Just as apparently Geelong would be underdogs if they were travelling to Brisbane this week (very debatable considering the odds of the Brisbane v Melbourne game currently), Geelong would be comfortable favourites for a home game against Sydney this weekend

Indeed but the probability of Geelong 35-70 across 5 games compared to Melbourne 64-1-40 suggests the advantage is about 1.5 wins, plus a fair chunk of percentage.

Geelong will finish 2 or 3 wins ahead. (Or 1, in the extremely unlikely event Geelong loses and Melbourne wins)

The data therefore suggests fixture will account for a significant share of the difference between Geelong and their best competitor.

 

[Ed_Gein]

Geelong will already be playing a man down during September with Rohan in the side. Finals spud. They're already going to be up against it.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Straight sets.

 

[footy75]

Straight sets.

Highly doubt it.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

So without double up games against the worst 2 teams, Geelong would currently be sitting... checks notes a game clear on top.
Hmmm weird.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Ok. Fair.

Geelong's got the easiest fixture of 2022 but only marginally easier than Sydney.

Even though they've lost most of those games comfortably?

The data disagrees with you- last 7 games in Perth 1 win, 6 losses and none of those losses particularly close (16 points the closest vs Adelaide)

Interesting how a 16 point win becomes such a blow out when it suits you. 28 points was a nail biter when it was Geelong beating Melbourne. I'm guessing you didn't watch the West Coast v Adelaide game: to say it wasn't close is laughable.

Your whole premise was based on Geelong having some unbelievable, historic fixtures advantage over its competitors. You've been banging on about "A two game head start!". You even got all smarmy with the old "I'll wait..." to find a comparably easy fixture.

I didn't have to go back five years, or even back to GWS/GC expansion: I went one spot down the ladder to find a team that hadn't been gifted the bottom two teams, but they had been gifted three of the bottom four instead. And no-one of the top four challengers besides Melbourne has had a much more difficult fixture in terms of opponent strength than Geelong. It makes me think that it's probably not that unusual when there's two or three sides with very low W/L tallies at the bottom of the ladder.

There's really not much difference between a 2-19 opponent and a 7-14 opponent at this stage of the year: they should be cannon fodder for any self-respecting finals aspirants. Witness Essendon and Hawthorn's efforts on the weekend: they've checked out, or they're throwing things around with a view to 2023. "We could put Sicily on Lynch, but he's not going to learn another string to his bow that way," that was, in effect, Sam Mitchell's words when interviewed at quarter time. Doesn’t sound like a coach who's desperate to go all out for a win to me. Yet by your W/L record rankings it makes a huge difference. Playing the bottom two is way easier than playing three of the bottom four in this instance. Which at the very least, is debatable as far as I'm concerned.

 

[PJays]

Interesting how a 16 point win becomes such a blow out when it suits you. 28 points was a nail biter when it was Geelong beating Melbourne.

That was comparing KP vs MCG, which was equivalent to Geelong beating Melbourne by roughly 16 points,

(Based on 20 years of analysis on Geelongs record at KP vs return fixtures vs Melbourne teams- 21-8 vs 16-13 with percentage gap around 20%, which equates to roughly a 2 goal advantage to Geelongwhen they play at KP compared to Marvel or MCG)

I'm guessing you didn't watch the West Coast v Adelaide game: to say it wasn't close is laughable.

Ok, so 1 close win, 1 or 2 close ish losses, the rest comfortable losses from their last 7 games in Perth. But playing the 2-19 West Coast in Perth wasn't an easy fixture. Right.

Your whole premise was based on Geelong having some unbelievable, historic fixtures advantage over its competitors.

Yeah, literally every single team in the AFL had a harder fixture than Geelong

Some- like Sydney, have marginally more difficult. Others like Melbourne, Essendon or Saints have much harder. So when you look at the ladder, Geelong's record is inflated.

The analysis we've been through on Melbourne proves this pretty comprehensively.

It makes me think that it's probably not that unusual when there's two or three sides with very low W/L tallies at the bottom of the ladder.

It happens maybe about every 10 years or so.... illustrating Geelong's record- which will presumably be 18-4 with percentage at least 140- will be significantly inflated when compared with historical minor premiers.

There's really not much difference between a 2-19 opponent and a 7-14 opponent at this stage of the year:

Regardless, there's a big difference in round 6 or round 14 or round 16. We're talking about Geelong's fixture over 22 games

 

[PhatBoy]

Well I’m convinced.

Put the dogs in the 8 and kick us out of it.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Others like Melbourne, Essendon or Saints have much harder.

Hang about, has all your posting on this topic really been a roundabout way of whinging about St Kilda's fixture?

 

[Falcon3518]

Cats will losing the QF is perfectly scripted, it’s after the bye. Cameron has done a hammy and they have played against very poor opposition the last month of H&A including the last round. They will get jumped against a faster opposition that brings more pressure. Don’t have to worry about them winning the flag after that.


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[Kobe Gryant]

Cats will losing the QF is perfectly scripted, it’s after the bye. Cameron has done a hammy and they have played against very poor opposition the last month of H&A including the last round. They will get jumped against a faster opposition that brings more pressure. Don’t have to worry about them winning the flag after that.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yeah just leave out the fact that the bye is the whole reason they expect Cameron to play...that's not an important detail or anything.

 

[evo]

Yeah just leave out the fact that the bye is the whole reason they expect Cameron to play...that's not an important detail or anything.

Nonetheless, when you add it to Dangers old man's calf worry it makes for a potentially interesting twist.

 

[Greggy]

I think their biggest weakness is fear of losing which leads to desperation.

 

[Duskfire]

Atkins is going to do a Picken and go buck wild in the finals.

 

[Back One Out]

There is only ONE thing which will stop this Geelong team... The final siren on September 24th.


Melbourne could barely beat a struggling 8th-placed Carlton team who were minus their midfielders: Hewett, Kennedy and Cerra. The Dees are struggling this season. Too complacent. Too happy with themselves. The Cats beat them easily just couple of months ago.

Richmond fans are living on past glories and they'll be hoping for some more Dusty miracles after he's sat out for virtually the entire season. History says teams struggle to win 3 knockout finals, let alone 4. The Doggies did it, but nobody else has. I doubt the Tigers will even get as far the Prelim Final.

Brisbane look okay on paper. But they are chokers. They haven't been able to win finals for the past 3 years. Not even at the Gabba. Why would this year be any different? Nothing they've done in the past 3 weeks has erased my belief they are big game chokers.

Collingwood and Fremantle have had good seasons, but the reality is they're just making up the numbers this September. Maybe next year.

The Swans are shaping up as Geelong's only real threat. But I reckon the Cats wouldn't be scared of them in the slightest. I can see the young Swannies getting to the Grand Final with two hard-fought finals victories at the SCG and then shitting the bed on Grand Final day.

 

[Red Bear]

Geelong premiers 2022 is pretty much a foregone conclusion. I'm more interested in knowing how many Geelong supporters have put coin on their team to win the flag, because the bookies odds are still not short enough.

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong premiers 2022 is pretty much a foregone conclusion. I'm more interested in knowing how many Geelong supporters have put coin on their team to win the flag, because the bookies odds are still not short enough.

Can’t speak for others but even in 2008, on grand final day, I backed Hawyhorn.

 

[Jackington]

Geelong have CLEARLY been the best side. By a margin.

I don't buy the Prestia argument on that night. I think that actually steeled us. Without the incident I don't think we get close.
They've been the best team in transition from D50 to F50, and the best at STOPPING transition.

The only other side to rank #1 in both at the end of the season in the last 30 years was the 07 Cats.

If the Cats don't win it from here, it's more than likely they have not handled the occasion. Because their best football has been superior to anyone elses this year.

This was how it felt watching it. Forced the move of Baker into the guts, and he was dominant.

No doubt Prestia is a jet - arguably Richmond's best player currently - but so often the good teams, those who play with pride, step up a level when a leader gets taken out.

Have a love/hate relationship with the potential double rest coming up. Geelong still shaky off the bye week, but also need the rest for the old tired bodies.

 

[Jackington]

Can’t speak for others but even in 2008, on grand final day, I backed Hawyhorn.

So it was you who messed with Cam Mooney's boots. The culprit found at last.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

This was how it felt watching it. Forced the move of Baker into the guts, and he was dominant.

No doubt Prestia is a jet - arguably Richmond's best player currently - but so often the good teams, those who play with pride, step up a level when a leader gets taken out.

Have a love/hate relationship with the potential double rest coming up. Geelong still shaky off the bye week, but also need the rest for the old tired bodies.

Statistically you're streets ahead of everyone else. Questions need to be asked if you DON'T win. I can't believe you're still $2.75 in markets. Superb odds.