Opinion How can this Geelong side be stopped?

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Kobe Gryant

what colour is your Bugatti?
Jul 31, 2021
718
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Sydney
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Geelong
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Reality check:

Played Sydney once.
Played Collingwood once.
Played Melbourne once.
Played Brisbane once.
Played Fremantle once.

Played North Melbourne twice.
Played West Coast twice.

Geelong have once again been kissed on the d*ck by the AFL with fixtures. They've barely had to play their closest competition, and most of those games were at their narrow cow paddock at Kardinia, which they won't be allowed anywhere near for finals.

You're so right

If only we got to play a good side like Richmond on the MCG. That would really test where we're at.
 

PJays

Club Legend
Nov 2, 2020
1,125
1,381
AFL Club
St Kilda
Reality check:

Played Sydney once.
Played Collingwood once.
Played Melbourne once.
Played Brisbane once.
Played Fremantle once.

Played North Melbourne twice.
Played West Coast twice.

Geelong have once again been kissed on the d*ck by the AFL with fixtures. They've barely had to play their closest competition, and most of those games were at their narrow cow paddock at Kardinia, which they won't be allowed anywhere near for finals.
With Richmond's win and the Dogs loss today it looks like Geelong won't have played any finals team twice

Meanwhile St Kilda will play doubles against 4 of the top 6

This is luck- Saints got Freo and Sydney (who got relegated to the middle group after losing an elimination final to GWS by 1 pt), Geelong got teams who tumbled down the ladder- WC, Port and Dogs.

The only way to even this up is a floating fixture but that's logistically difficult.

To me, it's another reason why I'm not sold on Geelong as runaway premiership favourites (they're now $2.75 with Melbourne $3.75 and Sydney $7.00)

They've only played the best teams on rare occasions and their results weren't great.

In my opinion, and it's not just my opinion because 20 years of data supports this, but KP is worth about 2 goals to Geelong compared to playing a neutral Victorian venue (against a fellow Victorian team. Not sure if it's quite 2 goals playing an interstate team at KP vs MCG, but there's clearly a difference there too).

What are Geelong's results vs those good opponents

- Lost to Sydney by 30 (SCG)

- Won by 10 vs Brisbane at KP. That's closer at the MCG.

- Won by 13 vs Collingwood at MCG.

- Lost by 3 vs Freo at KP. That's a bigger loss at the MCG.

- Won by 28 vs Melbourne at KP. That's maybe a 15 or 16 point win at the MCG.

So the MCG-adjusted results might be 3 wins, 2 losses including a very tight win over Brisbane with an overall +/- right on 0 or just negative.
 

Corn Cobbers

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Dec 9, 2015
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Yes the same west coast who finished what, 9th last year? Oh yeah they really had their hand in the till when they scheduled us twice against them before a ball had been kicked

You know fremantle beat us there right? What was Brisbane and Melbourne’s excuse? The same Melbourne who beat us there last year. Oh that’s right they don’t have one because you’re full of s**t
It's still a lucky draw, wasn't deliberate but just panned out that way, no one expected Collingwood and Fremantle to be pushing top 4 and West Coast to be complete rubbish, it's a legitimate point IMO

Plus the cow paddock factor, have to do a lot more running on the finals' venues
 

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Bunnings

Senior List
Mar 19, 2022
242
227
AFL Club
Geelong
Reality check:

Played Sydney once.
Played Collingwood once.
Played Melbourne once.
Played Brisbane once.
Played Fremantle once.

Played North Melbourne twice.
Played West Coast twice.

Geelong have once again been kissed on the d*ck by the AFL with fixtures. They've barely had to play their closest competition, and most of those games were at their narrow cow paddock at Kardinia, which they won't be allowed anywhere near for finals.
Finished 4th, played 2 of the other top 4 finishes twice, how the hell are the fixture makers predicting the doggies and port falling down the ladder and the eagles falling apart? Everyone had Geelong slipping pre season and now they are all making excuses, it gives me a chubby
 

PhatBoy

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2016
34,036
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It's still a lucky draw, wasn't deliberate but just panned out that way, no one expected Collingwood and Fremantle to be pushing top 4 and West Coast to be complete rubbish, it's a legitimate point IMO

Plus the cow paddock factor, have to do a lot more running on the finals' venues


No one has said it’s not lucky. Arguing that we were kissed on the dick by the afl is stupid however.

More running at the finals venues like we’ve done in our 10 wins from 12 games at other grounds

Jeez is there any data set we can fill that will actually satisfy everyone?
 

catscollector

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2018
5,964
7,468
AFL Club
Geelong
With Richmond's win and the Dogs loss today it looks like Geelong won't have played any finals team twice

Meanwhile St Kilda will play doubles against 4 of the top 6

This is luck- Saints got Freo and Sydney (who got relegated to the middle group after losing an elimination final to GWS by 1 pt), Geelong got teams who tumbled down the ladder- WC, Port and Dogs.

The only way to even this up is a floating fixture but that's logistically difficult.

To me, it's another reason why I'm not sold on Geelong as runaway premiership favourites (they're now $2.75 with Melbourne $3.75 and Sydney $7.00)

They've only played the best teams on rare occasions and their results weren't great.

In my opinion, and it's not just my opinion because 20 years of data supports this, but KP is worth about 2 goals to Geelong compared to playing a neutral Victorian venue (against a fellow Victorian team. Not sure if it's quite 2 goals playing an interstate team at KP vs MCG, but there's clearly a difference there too).

What are Geelong's results vs those good opponents

- Lost to Sydney by 30 (SCG)

- Won by 10 vs Brisbane at KP. That's closer at the MCG.

- Won by 13 vs Collingwood at MCG.

- Lost by 3 vs Freo at KP. That's a bigger loss at the MCG.

- Won by 28 vs Melbourne at KP. That's maybe a 15 or 16 point win at the MCG.

So the MCG-adjusted results might be 3 wins, 2 losses including a very tight win over Brisbane with an overall +/- right on 0 or just negative.

Really comes down to who we face in week one.

I think Fremantle is the most preferred match up.
Crowd factor will favor Geelong and the last time these teams faced one another, Fremantle were without Darcy, Fyfe, Young.
Geelong were without Dangerfield, Henry, Rohan.

Fremantle have a 5-1-1 record in Melbourne and have only played at the MCG once.
 

Corn Cobbers

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Dec 9, 2015
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No one has said it’s not lucky. Arguing that we were kissed on the dick by the afl is stupid however.

More running at the finals venues like we’ve done in our 10 wins from 12 games at other grounds

Jeez is there any data set we can fill that will actually satisfy everyone?
Yeah but in between those 12 away games you get soft home games on a much smaller ground which suits the older players, many of whom are awesome players but don't have the tank they had 10 years ago, they get to refresh in those games

You confident the 30+yo's can go at the same pace as Melbourne and Collingwood last night on the big grounds for a whole finals series?

There's also the gaping holes in the on-ball division, ie low quality ruckmen and mids, haven't solved that problem
 

PhatBoy

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2016
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Yeah but in between those 12 away games you get soft home games on a much smaller ground which suits the older players, many of whom are awesome players but don't have the tank they had 10 years ago, they get to refresh in those games

You confident the 30+yo's can go at the same pace as Melbourne and Collingwood last night on the big grounds for a whole finals series?

There's also the gaping holes in the on-ball division, ie low quality ruckmen and mids, haven't solved that problem


No. I’m confident that they won’t have to. What will decide whether we beat those sides isnt whether our old players can keep up. It’s whether the young players who have given us our pace and run this year can keep their poise and decision making and execution. Smith is the only veteran who’s run is crucial to us.

Stanley when fit has been excellent. Again whether he produces that or not is another question but he can’t do more to solve the problem than play very good football and he has for 2 months.
 

Corn Cobbers

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Dec 9, 2015
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No. I’m confident that they won’t have to. What will decide whether we beat those sides isnt whether our old players can keep up. It’s whether the young players who have given us our pace and run this year can keep their poise and decision making and execution. Smith is the only veteran who’s run is crucial to us.

Stanley when fit has been excellent. Again whether he produces that or not is another question but he can’t do more to solve the problem than play very good football and he has for 2 months.
I think you'll find, again, that there's nowhere to hide in finals and everyone will have to do lots of running, that's the modern game

We'll see but recent history shows that the Cats are usually roadkill in the big games that happen in the 1st and 3rd week of the finals, they're just too old
 

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SuperVolley11

Club Legend
Jun 2, 2011
1,037
730
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Week 2 you're playing a side that finished 5th-8th, you've got those covered usually

The hot sides are in the top 4
Oh wow. Thanks. I wasn’t sure how the finals system worked. Maybe… Geelong haven’t been in the top two sides come the pointy end of the season of the last few years. People like to say it’s a choke or a mental issue. Maybe the fact is they aren’t the best side of the year/finals or even second best. The 22 that play week 1 of the finals this year will be completely different to 2013, 2014….Hell it will be completely different to 2021. Not just names on paper either.
 

Corn Cobbers

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Dec 9, 2015
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You've got no idea what our midfield set up has even been. What do you want to bet Bigfooty wise Geelong beats Collingwood in any final we play this year?
I've already got an avatar bet with a Carlton supporter that I'm probably going to lose, that's for September

How about for October, Pies win and you have to use Ginnivan as your avatar, Geelong win and I'll use a player of your choice? If it's one all then the second game (GF) is the decisive one
 

PhatBoy

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2016
34,036
37,247
AFL Club
Geelong
I think you'll find, again, that there's nowhere to hide in finals and everyone will have to do lots of running, that's the modern game

We'll see but recent history shows that the Cats are usually roadkill in the big games that happen in the 1st and 3rd week of the finals, they're just too old

Correlation doesn’t equal causality. And we are a year younger on average at the moment than we were when we lost the grand final 2 years ago.

Will we win? How the hell should I know.

But it won’t be age that beats us
 

The Casey Cat

Premium Gold
Aug 5, 2007
15,393
10,300
Near Casey Fields
AFL Club
Geelong
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Trailblazers and Storm
I've already got an avatar bet with a Carlton supporter that I'm probably going to lose, that's for September

How about for October, Pies win and you have to use Ginnivan as your avatar, Geelong win and I'll use a player of your choice? If it's one all then the second game (GF) is the decisive one
Is that ####en it? Was thinking more a premium sponsorship (and I'm already Gold so not winning much but whatever) for the winner and the loser disappears for 6-12 months. How confident are you? I know I am.
 

Corn Cobbers

All Australian
Dec 9, 2015
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Collingwood
Is that ####en it? Was thinking more a premium sponsorship (and I'm already Gold so not winning much but whatever) for the winner and the loser disappears for 6-12 months. How confident are you? I know I am.
Wow the aggression...

Not sure what I'd do with a premium membership that I can't do now, and I'm not disappearing

If you're that confident you're better off heading to the TAB

It's avatar bet or nothing, it's just a game after all
 

The Casey Cat

Premium Gold
Aug 5, 2007
15,393
10,300
Near Casey Fields
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
Trailblazers and Storm
Wow the aggression...

Not sure what I'd do with a premium membership that I can't do now, and I'm not disappearing

If you're that confident you're better off heading to the TAB

It's avatar bet or nothing, it's just a game after all
Not aggression as much as confidence (specially not when I don't stand to win anything really). You were the one talking who you would bet on. Not prepared to bet very much as it turns out. Good luck with the 'Geelong will fail as they're old and slow and can't play away from KP' stuff. You don't know what you're taking about this year and are in for a shock.
 

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