Opinion How can this Geelong side be stopped?

[Corn Cobbers]

Not aggression as much as confidence (specially not when I don't stand to win anything really). You were the one talking who you would bet on. Not prepared to bet very much as it turns out. Good luck with the 'Geelong will fail as they're old and slow and can't play away from KP' stuff. You don't know what you're taking about this year and are in for a shock.

Not sure where I specifically said I'd bet on Collingwood?

Still think Melbourne are the team to beat

Anyway good luck, will be a lot of fun either way

 

[The Casey Cat]

Not sure where I specifically said I'd bet on Collingwood?

Still think Melbourne are the team to beat

Anyway good luck, will be a lot of fun either way

Well I agree with that at least. Yes Melbourne are still the team to beat.

 

[Tristan34]

Reality check:

Played Sydney once.
Played Collingwood once.
Played Melbourne once.
Played Brisbane once.
Played Fremantle once.

Played North Melbourne twice.
Played West Coast twice.

Geelong have once again been kissed on the d*ck by the AFL with fixtures. They've barely had to play their closest competition, and most of those games were at their narrow cow paddock at Kardinia, which they won't be allowed anywhere near for finals.

All in hindsight... Bulldogs have dropped off and were tipped to be up there in the four.. No one predicted WCE would drop like they have. Port also were predicted to be finals bound...

 

[samDD]

All in hindsight... Bulldogs have dropped off and were tipped to be up there in the four.. No one predicted WCE would drop like they have. Port also were predicted to be finals bound...

Your club was still given a piss easy draw even with that in mind. On what planet should Geelong, a team that made the prelim last year, play the wooden spooners North Melbourne twice?

 

[Tristan34]

Your club was still given a piss easy draw even with that in mind. On what planet should Geelong, a team that made the prelim last year, play the wooden spooners North Melbourne twice?

Well it worked out for Richmond.. We beat port, blues, bulldogs and saints recently. It has helped the tigers to get into the 8... Getting the Hawks and the bombers in the next 2 rounds is also a favourable draw for the tigs...

 

[Ricketz]

Reality check:

Played Sydney once.
Played Collingwood once.
Played Melbourne once.
Played Brisbane once.
Played Fremantle once.

Played North Melbourne twice.
Played West Coast twice.

Geelong have once again been kissed on the d*ck by the AFL with fixtures. They've barely had to play their closest competition, and most of those games were at their narrow cow paddock at Kardinia, which they won't be allowed anywhere near for finals.

I don't think Collingwood, Melbourne, Brisbane or Fremantle are unhappy about playing us once.

I think playing these teams twice would be far worse for their ladder position leading into finals, and our gap would be significantly greater.

 

[Ricketz]

With Richmond's win and the Dogs loss today it looks like Geelong won't have played any finals team twice

Meanwhile St Kilda will play doubles against 4 of the top 6

This is luck- Saints got Freo and Sydney (who got relegated to the middle group after losing an elimination final to GWS by 1 pt), Geelong got teams who tumbled down the ladder- WC, Port and Dogs.

The only way to even this up is a floating fixture but that's logistically difficult.

To me, it's another reason why I'm not sold on Geelong as runaway premiership favourites (they're now $2.75 with Melbourne $3.75 and Sydney $7.00)

They've only played the best teams on rare occasions and their results weren't great.

In my opinion, and it's not just my opinion because 20 years of data supports this, but KP is worth about 2 goals to Geelong compared to playing a neutral Victorian venue (against a fellow Victorian team. Not sure if it's quite 2 goals playing an interstate team at KP vs MCG, but there's clearly a difference there too).

What are Geelong's results vs those good opponents

- Lost to Sydney by 30 (SCG)

- Won by 10 vs Brisbane at KP. That's closer at the MCG.

- Won by 13 vs Collingwood at MCG.

- Lost by 3 vs Freo at KP. That's a bigger loss at the MCG.

- Won by 28 vs Melbourne at KP. That's maybe a 15 or 16 point win at the MCG.

So the MCG-adjusted results might be 3 wins, 2 losses including a very tight win over Brisbane with an overall +/- right on 0 or just negative.

See my post above. Teams that play Geelong twice don't make the finals.

Do those stats for the teams that made the 8 vs the teams Geelong played twice. Let us know how they went.

 

[Ricketz]

Your club was still given a piss easy draw even with that in mind. On what planet should Geelong, a team that made the prelim last year, play the wooden spooners North Melbourne twice?

Why do you think percentage teams should be given like charity to underperforming teams?

 

[Fadge]

Folk in home away 2021 refused to see Dees as superior, noticably so, to previous incarnations. It was OBVIOUS to any OBJECTIVE observer that they were a real threat, had shrugged off their flaky behaviour, and built an all ground defense system that could blunt any oppo, whilst being able to flick the attack switch via the dynamic and strong bodied mids. The ONLY question about mighty Dees in 2021, from July, was the forward line...could they convert enough? Only wilful hoping against the obvious could blind so many people. It was deliberate IGNORANCE...deliberately ignoring what was in front of them.

This is rubbish. A Max Gawn kick on the siren in the final home and away match of the season was the difference between them fishing 1st and 3rd (or maybe 4th) on the ladder.

They were one of a pack of contenders, no more than that.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

If only you didn't snipe one of Richmond's best players out of the game in the first quarter.

Sounds like excuses. Personally I'd say just don't choke a 17 point lead on your home deck in the last quarter, but what do I know?

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Your club was still given a piss easy draw even with that in mind. On what planet should Geelong, a team that made the prelim last year, play the wooden spooners North Melbourne twice?

They expected us to fall off a cliff. Gil just missed the memo that it was going to happen to Richmond, not Geelong.

Always next year, right?

 

[Overhang]

Reality check:

Played Sydney once.
Played Collingwood once.
Played Melbourne once.
Played Brisbane once.
Played Fremantle once.

Played North Melbourne twice.
Played West Coast twice.

Geelong have once again been kissed on the d*ck by the AFL with fixtures. They've barely had to play their closest competition, and most of those games were at their narrow cow paddock at Kardinia, which they won't be allowed anywhere near for finals.

I think we got a good draw but come on some of that is just luck based, like at the start of the year you'd be happy to play Collingwood (17th finish) and Freo (11th finish) twice. West Coast finished 9th and were expected to be a top 8 side and who wants to travel to Perth and play a good WC side, as chance would have it WC have been decimated by injuries all year.
Our double ups are Port (prelim finalist), Dogs (runner up), West Coast (9th), Saints (10th) and North (18th)
12 months on though and that draw looks great

I mean Richmond have had an even easier draw and are only just in the 8, Richmond double ups West Coast, Hawks, Essendon, Port and Carlton, based on your own observations Richmond should be in the top 4.

 

[Phipppppa]

The lid is off Geelong will win the 2022 premiership

Bloody oath we will.

I’m already dreaming of the cup being raised for Joel and chris.

 

[Nicho50]

Recent history shows the most dominant H and A side doesn’t get it done in finals Crows 17 us 18 were the best teams by a mile for the majority of season.

Cats are in some serious form but a couple of injuries now have to key players , finishing off with two soft games and a bye before finals and potentially copping Collingwood at the G in the first final and who knows. If Cats drop the first final then they would be under some serious heat:

 

[Pistol Night]

We can be stopped.

Just not in H/A.

So you're the Alf Stewart of the AFL

 

[juss]

They look awesome a month from finals. Have they peaked too soon?
Time will tell because I reckon I've seen this pattern before.

Maybe it'll be different this time but until we see it it's hard to be too confident in them.

 

[PhatBoy]

Your club was still given a piss easy draw even with that in mind. On what planet should Geelong, a team that made the prelim last year, play the wooden spooners North Melbourne twice?

For a decade we have perennially had one of the hardest draws year after year and the one season where we draw a wooden spoon team twice - who Richmond were lucky enough to only play, and lose to, once, and you’re going to claim we get favoured?

2 games at home in the first two and a half months - was that part of their plan to favour us too?

 

[gouki88]

Bloody oath we will.

I’m already dreaming of the cup being raised for Joel and chris.

 

[Wojcinski]

Geelong can easily be stopped. Just put them up against a better team like Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond, Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Carlton, Dogs or Gold Coast. Cats will only make finals due to the AFL blessing them with an easy draw, umpire favouritism every week, their farmland oblong shaped ground and Steve Hocking

 

[Pistol Night]

If they win the qualifying final after the pre finals bye it'll help. No doubt they'll get asked about it 846 times in the lead up

 

[JohnZ]

Just put us on the G, that will stop us. I can't remember the last time we won a game there.

 

[Xtreme]

Geelong would have to have a monumental choke to lose it from here.

 

[SuperVolley11]

Recent history shows the most dominant H and A side doesn’t get it done in finals Crows 17 us 18 were the best teams by a mile for the majority of season.

Cats are in some serious form but a couple of injuries now have to key players , finishing off with two soft games and a bye before finals and potentially copping Collingwood at the G in the first final and who knows. If Cats drop the first final then they would be under some serious heat:

Melbourne 2021…. Oh wait

 

[ToreadorMarch]

Hawkins

Agreed

 

[Chinacats]

The blueprint is there. Speedy team that applies extreme heat and they get jittery especially in the QF. Where they’re 1-6 since 2013. Pies have that game plan that could stop them…