Toast How can this Melbourne side be stopped?

Remove this Banner Ad

WillHayward

Norm Smith Medallist
Suspended
Aug 13, 2018
9,866
13,202
South Melbourne
AFL Club
Sydney
Not yet. We're doing well but Freo have a very tough run home. If I'm being honest. I'd expect us to fall a bit after the bye both with some young legs and the difficult draw. Me, personally, I hope we both host and win a final this season and have a red hot crack in a second final. That's invaluable experience for a developing group that they can thrive on the big stage and hopefully hold us in very good sted in the coming number of years.

I expect Brisbane and Geelong to move past us in the back half of the year and Carlton and Sydney to be in that real dogfight with us. Lets not completely dismiss Port and Footscray who are finding their form after early stumbles. Richmond aren't a completely spent force and GWS, whilst coached by a complete moron, is stacked with talent that is foolish to completely dismiss in the finals picture.

Melbourne I expect will be a bridge too far for us. We might be able to jag the return fixture in Perth later in the year but I don't think so. Same with Brisbane. I do however think we'll probably defend both of these sides better than they'd like.

Melbourne may drop a game here or there but they should be treated as the outliers rather than the rule. There's no reason to think any side other than Brisbane this season should be good enough to be a consistent challenge to them.
I said 18 months
 

Byron_Clanger

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 2, 2008
26,415
6,705
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Swan Districts, Chicago Bulls
Everyone thought Richmond was unbeatable in 2018. All it takes is one bad Prelim to mess everything up. I think the only team that can beat Melbourne is themselves, Richmond style in a Prelim. Just one bad game when the other team plays the game of their lives, and it's done.
 

Mr Cheese

All Australian
Mar 25, 2020
678
1,474
AFL Club
Fremantle
Wing is a part of the midfield, first off. Second, Marshall 26 hitouts to Darcy 12 when we played. During that game didn't you give up 65 points to our 55 points. "wing (thanks for that by the way)" Do you mean Blake Acres?
Firstly no one likes a pedant. Whilst wing is part of the midfield (especially if you're an AA selector) I think it's good to separate the engine room from the outside game. In terms of wings, yes I was having a light-hearted dig regards Acres. Darcy went off injured in that game (early 3rd quarter - he went back on but couldn't do much and was subbed off) and it turned the match, we win if he stays on fit. Meek was playing also and split ruck time with Darcy so hitouts don't mean a lot (Darcy had 10 disposals and Marshall 9 despite playing half a game less). Don't get me wrong, Marshall's a decent ruck, but he isn't in the same tier as Darcy. We were also missing Cox, arguably our most important defender, plus Mundy, Fyfe and Taberner. If you were missing King, Steele, Crouch and Battle, and Marshall got injured half way through the game are you winning it?
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Lampers

Club Legend
May 27, 2004
1,747
3,220
Eastside
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Melbourne
which teams? Essendon, West Coast and North Melbourne. From somebody earlier, they said it was "57 points per game, St Kilda allows 71.". That's 14 points difference. Now if we played Essendon, West Coast and North I would say we would be more than 14 points better defensively.

You do realise that if Saints played those three teams (ESS, WC and North) in rounds 9-11, they would need to keep them to an average of under 19 points per game to achieve a 57 points against average?

It’s impossible for Saint to achieve an average of 57 points against by round ten, even if they played two of those teams and kept them scoreless they would have an average against of 57.1.

Plus Saints have already had the “advantage” for their points against of playing at Cairns where Port only managed 43 (yet still won).

If you’d argued Saints offence (worst in the top 8) hasn’t had the chance to feast on those three teams, that’s valid.

Your take is way off, as usual.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
You do realise that if Saints played those three teams (ESS, WC and North) in rounds 9-11, they would need to keep them to an average of under 19 points per game to achieve a 57 points against average?

It’s impossible for Saint to achieve an average of 57 points against by round ten, even if they played two of those teams and kept them scoreless they would have an average against of 57.1.

Plus Saints have already had the “advantage” for their points against of playing at Cairns where Port only managed 43 (yet still won).

If you’d argued Saints offence (worst in the top 8) hasn’t had the chance to feast on those three teams, that’s valid.

Your take is way off, as usual.
But you don't factor in that Dockers haven't played Tigers, Hawks, Demons and Pies. All are high scoring teams and would bump up the average score against.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
Firstly no one likes a pedant. Whilst wing is part of the midfield (especially if you're an AA selector) I think it's good to separate the engine room from the outside game. In terms of wings, yes I was having a light-hearted dig regards Acres. Darcy went off injured in that game (early 3rd quarter - he went back on but couldn't do much and was subbed off) and it turned the match, we win if he stays on fit. Meek was playing also and split ruck time with Darcy so hitouts don't mean a lot (Darcy had 10 disposals and Marshall 9 despite playing half a game less). Don't get me wrong, Marshall's a decent ruck, but he isn't in the same tier as Darcy. We were also missing Cox, arguably our most important defender, plus Mundy, Fyfe and Taberner. If you were missing King, Steele, Crouch and Battle, and Marshall got injured half way through the game are you winning it?
I actually looked up the stats for both rucks and surprisingly they are pretty equal in terms of ability to ruck but you forget that we have Ryder as our primary centre bounce ruckman. Let's not go into who was missing who on the day because we were equally missing the same amount of good players(Ryder, Jones, Billings, Clark, Howard.) In the GWS game we lost BOTH our ruckmen and still managed to win the game from being down by 11 points.
 

Lampers

Club Legend
May 27, 2004
1,747
3,220
Eastside
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Melbourne
But you don't factor in that Dockers haven't played Tigers, Hawks, Demons and Pies. All are high scoring teams and would bump up the average score against.
Freo have played Cartlon and Geelong, high scoring teams, and kept them to 60 odd points and fewer than 18 scoring shots. Small sample but shows they can keep high scoring teams down.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
Freo have played Cartlon and Geelong, high scoring teams, and kept them to 60 odd points and fewer than 18 scoring shots. Small sample but shows they can keep high scoring teams down.
Both teams scored over the 57 average points allowed. I would staggered a guess and say that if Dockers were to play two of those four teams mentioned in my last post then there average points allowed would go from 57 to 61 which would be more in line with Demons. if they played all four then it would go to 65 point average points allowed (give or take a few points.). We just have to wait and see how this will look at the end of the year when the season's over.
 
Last edited:

Mr Cheese

All Australian
Mar 25, 2020
678
1,474
AFL Club
Fremantle
I guess a good way to rate a defense based purely on who they've played is to see how close to their scoring average teams get when playing against them.

Geelong at home I believe average in the high 80s we kept them to mid 60s

North are shithouse, but they still average a lot more than 24 (admittedly Larkey is a huge out here)

GWS again average more than 54 (interestingly Melbourne kept them to 53 the week later)

Looking at the results I'd make the argument that Freo were still finding their feet in the first 3 rounds and were lucky we only played one good side in the Saints. Since then though, we've strangled teams and controlled games, and kept scores against low, even for poor sides. It'll all come out in the wash though, I just hope we have the legs as we're such a young side (remove Mundy from the North game and our average age would've almost been pre-pubescent).

That's where Melbourne are going to show their stuff (provided they stay fit) and really run over teams.



On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

Demonic Ascent

Bang! Bang bang bang!
Feb 21, 2006
18,207
15,666
Muckertal
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Turtles, NYJets, Celtics, Tottenham
Everyone thought Richmond was unbeatable in 2018. All it takes is one bad Prelim to mess everything up. I think the only team that can beat Melbourne is themselves, Richmond style in a Prelim. Just one bad game when the other team plays the game of their lives, and it's done.

Many forget that it wasn't just an all-time game from Mason Cox but the number of Richmond players under health/injury clouds in that game that lost it for them.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
I guess a good way to rate a defense based purely on who they've played is to see how close to their scoring average teams get when playing against them.

Geelong at home I believe average in the high 80s we kept them to mid 60s

North are shithouse, but they still average a lot more than 24 (admittedly Larkey is a huge out here)

GWS again average more than 54 (interestingly Melbourne kept them to 53 the week later)

Looking at the results I'd make the argument that Freo were still finding their feet in the first 3 rounds and were lucky we only played one good side in the Saints. Since then though, we've strangled teams and controlled games, and kept scores against low, even for poor sides. It'll all come out in the wash though, I just hope we have the legs as we're such a young side (remove Mundy from the North game and our average age would've almost been pre-pubescent).

That's where Melbourne are going to show their stuff (provided they stay fit) and really run over teams.



On SM-G955F using BigFooty.com mobile app
I'm not saying that Dockers don't have a very good defensive unit just that in my opinion (I'm a little biased) that the Saints have a better back 6 than Dockers. I think that's because you have a good midfield that can stop the rebound of opposing teams and that means that your defensive unit hasn't been tested, this also goes for your two small forwards who are very good at making the opposing team turnover the ball in the middle of the ground.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Dez!

Hall of Famer
Jul 14, 2007
33,643
25,065
Melbourne, Victoria
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
I'm not saying that Dockers don't have a very good defensive unit just that in my opinion (I'm a little biased) that the Saints have a better back 6 than Dockers. I think that's because you have a good midfield that can stop the rebound of opposing teams and that means that your defensive unit hasn't been tested, this also goes for your two small forwards who are very good at making the opposing team turnover the ball in the middle of the ground.

Little biased? It's flatout delusional.

St Kilda do not have a better defense than Fremantle.
 

danster168

Club Legend
Suspended
Apr 29, 2016
2,945
2,926
AFL Club
Melbourne
Okay, I'll admit to that if you admit that Melbourne don't have a better defence than Dockers as well.
In what world isn't our defence better than Fremantle's? Please factor in the fact that Lever, Petty, Salem have missed most of this season as well as Hibberd who has missed all. So please factor this into your answer.

Fremantles defence is good. For 8 games. Ours has been good for a year and 8 games.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
Most people don't like Kane Cornes either despite being the best sports media guy in the industry.

Also, getting personal isn't endearing. Stick to the footy chat.
Kane Cornes is a muppet that spouts wild theories and hopes they come true, People mock him constantly about his personality and football knowledge. Not a great example.
Not personal, just facts.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
In what world isn't our defence better than Fremantle's? Please factor in the fact that Lever, Petty, Salem have missed most of this season as well as Hibberd who has missed all. So please factor this into your answer.

Fremantles defence is good. For 8 games. Ours has been good for a year and 8 games.
The same as how Dockers have a better defence than the Saints. Dockers have the lowest average points against.
 

MickG88

Team Captain
May 19, 2017
532
644
AFL Club
St Kilda
You didn't address what I asked you to address....
The answer stays the same as this is what sways people opinion as to why Dockers have a better defence than the Saints. So why wouldn't it be the same for Dockers defence against the Demons?
I don't put a lot of stock in who has missed games as ever team has players missing during the season and finals series. You get judge on your system.
 

danster168

Club Legend
Suspended
Apr 29, 2016
2,945
2,926
AFL Club
Melbourne
The answer stays the same as this is what sways people opinion as to why Dockers have a better defence than the Saints. So why wouldn't it be the same for Dockers defence against the Demons?
I don't put a lot of stock in who has missed games as ever team has players missing during the season and finals series. You get judge on your system.
So fremantles defence is better than our vfl teams defence? cool.

So Lever, Petty and Salem miss most of the season and you don't even factor that in. laughable.

Lets see how Stkilda goes without Max King, Steele and Marshall and tell me personnel doesn't matter and it's all about system lol.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad