How close are Hawthorn to a flag?

[Black Haze]

Hawthorn are currently second favourite for the 2026 flag and have enjoyed some great finals wins in recent times, but they went 0-4 against the 2025 Grand Finalists which indicates they may be overrated and a step or two behind the top echelon.

Most people would agree they need a key forward and elite midfielder in order to condend for a flag, and that Sam Mitchell is a great coach and ruthless operator but do you think Hawthorn are close to a flag? Why/why not?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Most people would agree they need a key forward and elite midfielder in order to condend for a flag, and that Sam Mitchell is a great coach and ruthless operator but do you think Hawthorn are close to a flag? Why/why not?

Who believes that?

Mitch Lewis missed most of the season recovering from an ACL, and Calsher Dear was a second year player. If both avoid injury they could be the one-two combination for the next 5 years.

That's without considering the value Chol adds.

We also have the deepest collection of dangerous small forwards in the competition who regularly hit the scoreboard in Watson, Moore, MacDonald and Ginnivan.

It's the midfield that is the biggest issue. Day needs to stay fit. We need Zach Merrett or equivalent. That's at a minimum.
Jai Newcombe is a superstar, but September 2025 proved that he can't do it all himself.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Add Merrett and they'll be close to flag favourites, maybe second after Brisbane. Every other part of the ground is covered but they need more through the middle, especially if Day's navicular becomes problematic.

 

[Mr Meow]

Possibly closer than Geelong for the first time since 2018.

 

[WesternSydneyHawk]

Mitch Lewis missed most of the season recovering from an ACL, and Calsher Dear was a second year player. If both avoid injury they could be the one-two combination for the next 5 years.

That's without considering the value Chol adds.

We also have the deepest collection of dangerous small forwards in the competition who regularly hit the scoreboard in Watson, Moore, MacDonald and Ginnivan.

It's the midfield that is the biggest issue. Day needs to stay fit. We need Zach Merrett or equivalent. That's at a minimum.
Jai Newcombe is a superstar, but September 2025 proved that he can't do it all himself.

I'd agree with most of this.

The big unanswered questions for me with Mitch Lewis is if whether can avoid another ACL, and whether he can reach something close to his previous best form.

Calsher Dear, in just his first two seasons in the AFL, has shown he can be an elite key forward. And Chol found another gear in September.

On top of this, Lloyd Meek has shown on quite a few occasions that he's capable of pushing forward to provide another target and kicking goals when required.

Some matches late last season, we were effectively running five tall forwards (Gunston, Lewis, Meek, Dear, and Chol).

So another key forward is not an urgent immediate need, but that may change over the next 12 months based on whether Lewis can stay healthy.

Meanwhile, another midfielder is an urgent need.

The problem is we're far too reliant on Will Day.

Without Day, it's basically Jai Newcombe singlehandedly carrying our midfield. And that gets us to a prelim final, not a flag.

We've got a stack of Lacey outside mids/small forwards/wingmen (Watson, Ginnivan, D'ambrosio, etc). The issue is winning centre clearances abd feeding it out to those guys.

If both Day and Newcombe remain healthy and fit throughout the season, then we could conceivably make a grand final.

But having your flag hopes rest on just two guys is not a great strategy.

Now if we had another quality mid alongside a healthy Day, with Newcombe becoming our 3rd mid, then I think we're as good as any team in the comp right now.

 

[Eternal Schism]

They're steadily improving with a strong club culture and an excellent backline. Midfield one tracked, too many inside types without someone who can break it open. Hence Merett. Issue is improving doesn't mean winning a flag. You can improve to top 4, and make the grand final, but with this extremely good, highly experienced & determined Brisbane side, it can be very hard to actually win it when you get to the level to challenge.

Also, Hawthorn are Gold Coasts bunnies when it comes to playing away. 4-1 Gold Coasts way in the last 5 meetings. Dimma has had the wood on the Hawks as coach, Richmond used to beat them all the time. They're also on the rise, further, so if Gold Coast are up there, top 4, then Hawks will likely fall to them away.

Who believes that?

Mitch Lewis missed most of the season recovering from an ACL, and Calsher Dear was a second year player. If both avoid injury they could be the one-two combination for the next 5 years.

That's without considering the value Chol adds.

We also have the deepest collection of dangerous small forwards in the competition who regularly hit the scoreboard in Watson, Moore, MacDonald and Ginnivan.

It's the midfield that is the biggest issue. Day needs to stay fit. We need Zach Merrett or equivalent. That's at a minimum.
Jai Newcombe is a superstar, but September 2025 proved that he can't do it all himself.

Hawks fans have been going on about the "but but but Mitchell Lewis! When he comes good..."

He's been on the Hawks list for 9 seasons now, 27 years old. Has never played more than 15 games in a season. in fact he's only ever managed to get on the park for more than 10 games, 4 times out of those 9 years.

Relying on him to win you a flag up forward is ridiculous. Face it, he's cooked & honestly the Hawks would be better off focusing on someone else to accompany Dear &/or Chol. Even if Lewis plays a full season, he won't make up for Gunstons eventual departure.

The Hawks played so well because they had a 33 (34 this week) year old come 2nd in the Coleman in his best ever season. Gunston at that level is a freak, but it's easy to go over the hill or have a career ending injury. The Hawks absolutely must win in 26' or 27' whilst he's still there. I assume if they salute he will retire after it.

 

[Obeanie1]

The tier below the GF teams.

Everyone knows why.

Chasing Merrett is no surprise.

As mentioned Gunston now 34 won the B&F, which tells several stories.

 

[Nunez]

Merrett feels like snake oil to me. Good player, but I don't think he's the difference in them winning the flag or not, especially with Day set to spend less time in the middle.

 

[Xtreme]

Were robbed in 2025
Should win it in 2026 if not for the corruption in the AFL!

 

[happyhawka86]

They're steadily improving with a strong club culture and an excellent backline. Midfield one tracked, too many inside types without someone who can break it open. Hence Merett. Issue is improving doesn't mean winning a flag. You can improve to top 4, and make the grand final, but with this extremely good, highly experienced & determined Brisbane side, it can be very hard to actually win it when you get to the level to challenge.

Also, Hawthorn are Gold Coasts bunnies when it comes to playing away. 4-1 Gold Coasts way in the last 5 meetings. Dimma has had the wood on the Hawks as coach, Richmond used to beat them all the time. They're also on the rise, further, so if Gold Coast are up there, top 4, then Hawks will likely fall to them away.



Hawks fans have been going on about the "but but but Mitchell Lewis! When he comes good..."

He's been on the Hawks list for 9 seasons now, 27 years old. Has never played more than 15 games in a season. in fact he's only ever managed to get on the park for more than 10 games, 4 times out of those 9 years.

Relying on him to win you a flag up forward is ridiculous. Face it, he's cooked & honestly the Hawks would be better off focusing on someone else to accompany Dear &/or Chol. Even if Lewis plays a full season, he won't make up for Gunstons eventual departure.

The Hawks played so well because they had a 33 (34 this week) year old come 2nd in the Coleman in his best ever season. Gunston at that level is a freak, but it's easy to go over the hill or have a career ending injury. The Hawks absolutely must win in 26' or 27' whilst he's still there. I assume if they salute he will retire after it.

Our forwardline was better in 24 when gunston only kicked 29 goals. We’ll find the goals, they don’t just disappear. Improved years from Lewis and dear will go along way. I’d say we’re perfectly set up to handle gunston exiting the team. If we can improve the midfield our forwardline will be a lot more potent

 

[HairyO]

The tier below the GF teams.

Everyone knows why.

Chasing Merrett is no surprise.

As mentioned Gunston now 34 won the B&F, which tells several stories.

Gunston isnt 34 til tomorrow. This is clearly ageism !!

 

[DERO]

Would be so close that they could taste it if they had Zach Merrett.

 

[ReturningHawk]

The tier below the GF teams.

Everyone knows why.

Chasing Merrett is no surprise.

As mentioned Gunston now 34 won the B&F, which tells several stories.

But your post only tells one story: A WC supporter still hurting from the Barrass trade and pick swaps. Should've gone for Carlton's picks, I'm tellin ya.

 

[Obeanie1]

But your post only tells one story: A WC supporter still hurting from the Barrass trade and pick swaps. Should've gone for Carlton's picks, I'm tellin ya.

Lol. Deflecting much?

You keep telling yourself that buddy.

Hawks aren't premiership contenders until they fix the midfield.

They know it.

Everyone knows it.

It's why they are chasing every decent mid they think they are a chance to get. And will pay overs to get them.

Loading up big time to have a crack for sure. But they are nowhere near the Lions who are short odds to go 3 in a row. Just look at the players they are adding.

Right now the Hawks are the bridesmaids to the big show.

 

[Obeanie1]

Gunston isnt 34 til tomorrow. This is clearly ageism !!

Will he be 34 next season?

And have another personal best season?

That's a big ask.

 

[HairyO]

Will he be 34 next season?

And have another personal best season?

That's a big ask.

He got better as the season went on. I'd say next year could still be a very good year, but it would be silly to expect him to still be dominating at 35.

Tex kicked 70 goals at 32 then went downhill but still performed well. But he is a very different style of player.

 

[Obeanie1]

He got better as the season went on. I'd say next year could still be a very good year, but it would be silly to expect him to still be dominating at 35.

Tex kicked 70 goals at 32 then went downhill but still performed well. But he is a very different style of player.

So you agree then.

Its a big ask for a 34 yr old to have personal best seasons x 2 in his final years.

 

[ReturningHawk]

Lol. Deflecting much?

You keep telling yourself that buddy.

Hawks aren't premiership contenders until they fix the midfield.

They know it.

Everyone knows it.

It's why they are chasing every decent mid they think they are a chance to get. And will pay overs to get them.

Loading up big time to have a crack for sure. But they are nowhere near the Lions who are short odds to go 3 in a row. Just look at the players they are adding.

Right now the Hawks are the bridesmaids to the big show.

Good stuff.

Always choose Carlton’s picks

 

[HairyO]

So you agree then.

Its a big ask for a 34 yr old to have personal best seasons x 2 in his final years.

I dont think personal best is needed. If we can get 30+ goals from Dear, Lewis, Chol and Gunston we are likely playing another Prelim. And each of them if playing fit each week is capable of 40+ goals.

 

[Obeanie1]

Good stuff.

Always choose Carlton’s picks

Good stuff.

Keep deflecting. It obviously makes you feel better.

 

[calyam]

Next season they inject Will Day back into the midfield (and perhaps Merrett). That's a pretty big talent infusion if they get that trade done.

Offsetting that, the Hawks have a large reliance on Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

34

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

. He's coming off a fantastic season, but he'll also be 34 next season.

They project to be better next season, provided Gunston doesn't fall off a cliff and they get that trade done. And if that's the case, then you'd have to say they aren't far away from a premiership.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Have no idea why we didnt go after Oliver when the hawks are screaming for mids

Anyway lets see what happens today. If Merrett doesnt come then the likes of Ward, Husthwaite, Mackenzie and whoever we get in the first round will need a big summer.

 

[JPetro83]

Top 2 next year. I would say they are close...10% in the next 2 years

 

[Big_Birdy]

Considering Brisbane are the best team by a decent margin, and will improve more than anyone, I'm not sure how close any of the other 17 teams are to a flag in the next couple of years.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Considering Brisbane are the best team by a decent margin, and will improve more than anyone, I'm not sure how close any of the other 17 teams are to a flag in the next couple of years.

Hawks best chance is for the Lions to somehow bottle a final and then Bradbury a flag.