How Crow Can You Go? An Adelaide Football Club Saga

Where will Adelaide finish?


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Aphrodite

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"Goddess"
Gibbs not selected again. Not even named as emergency.

 

Carltontragic

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Not seen footywire draft history so will not comment on it as unsure how detailed or accurate it is.
But plenty of other sources exist when you want to look stuff up.

IMO, not enough keen footy fans take proper notice of how lists are built or re-built as sustained contention and premiership success group of players.
If you start to take notice of a proper draft era where clubs should take drafting seriously a good place to start is mid's 1990's once under 19's was fazed out and soon after concessions and compromises to a national draft system were mostly removed. Soon after Fremantle and Port came in.
There are websites that do a really good job of helping trace back how clubs became into a position of good lists and also how many stuff it up.
One thing that does stand out in the priority pick system that originated when Sydney was really bad in early 1990's really helped launch clubs from bottom towards top half of ladder over time and also make it hard to stay up near the top.

Every Draft pick and player trade. This site is super in terms of detail of data on draft picks in general and tracing back how trades and draft picks move around.

That link gives the most basic info of players name and year drafted and to which club. Not as good as the previous link but a quick link to just see if you can find a player name via control F on keyboard and year drafted.

This link gives you a list of every player that played as senior game for the club in this league.
What I find interesting with this source is it gives you the players date of birth, his age on debut for club and the order of player appearing as a senior player (example , Stocker our 1206th player in league history to debut)
Better still you can sort this list which means you can see a whole generation of players for any club come along over a number of years and cause a core group that becomes successful.
You can look up any club as I just gave link to Carlton as an example.

Also more recent years if you look up an AFL Draft year in Wikipedia each year tends to have trades and various drafts and de-listings for that off season in one place.
When you cross reference this stuff with draft guru site you can virtually trace back any info you like.

Combine these sources together and you can really get some know how of what draft picks are worth in general depending on pick number and also have a good feel for likelyhood of finding players in draft.
But also you can see how priority picks early this century and late last really gave some clubs a real leg up from winning less than 6 games back then.

Priority picks as we know are not what they used to be as really early ones virtually gone. Hopefully for good.







The old PP was too much help. I really did not like how Saints through being s**t rewarded to get a very good list via priority picks that lead to multiple grand finals. Obviously they took advantage well too but follow it up with Hawks and Pies soon after and see how it gave them multiple really early picks it is frustrating to see the difference now where to get early picks you got to trade some of your current talent to get more early picks which only makes the initial period of building add more pain before you wait for a bunch of talented youngster mature. But I prefer this way now without the really early priority picks as clubs have to work harder and less rewarded for simply being down the bottom.
Great post mate! 10/10! I’m usually more a voyeur on here, lack the time to do adequate research, but i really do enjoy reading most of the posters opinions here.. cheers
 

Opine

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They'll be hating Gold Coast right now...taken pick 1 (potentially) away from them...Luko and Rankine up there enjoying life away from Adelaide...possible priority pick which affects who they may draft.
A curse they brought onto themselves...amongst others (GF floppers, collective minds, pike, power stance, gibbs etc)
Do I feel sorry for them - not one iota!
Furthermore, if SOS ever does decide to take on role as list manager at another club, I hope that club is GC; coinciding with end of contract terms for JL and IR. It would be gold knowing Crows have to once again face SOS in crucial trade scenario/s.
 

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Wickzki

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As for Didak, this is from footywire - the P stands for "Priority" - if that is in correct take it up with them.
View attachment 707637
707764


Here's from Wikipedia. Only Nick Riewoldt was a priority pick in 2000. This is an accurate draft.

FootyWire is good for statistics but they don't do draft and trade recording very well except for "games since drafted."

If Didak was a PP then the draft would have gone St. Kilda (Riewoldt) -- Collingwood (Didak) -- St. Kilda (Koschitzke) -- Collingwood (?). Instead it was St. Kilda (priority pick), St. Kilda (round one), Collingwood, Carlton (Livingston) and so on. Back in those days priority picks were ahead of the first round.
 

Macca43

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View attachment 707764

Here's from Wikipedia. Only Nick Riewoldt was a priority pick in 2000. This is an accurate draft.

FootyWire is good for statistics but they don't do draft and trade recording very well except for "games since drafted."

If Didak was a PP then the draft would have gone St. Kilda (Riewoldt) -- Collingwood (Didak) -- St. Kilda (Koschitzke) -- Collingwood (?). Instead it was St. Kilda (priority pick), St. Kilda (round one), Collingwood, Carlton (Livingston) and so on. Back in those days priority picks were ahead of the first round.
Thanks. Doesn't change the point though.
 

Arr0w

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According to a poster over there, we have one of the worst lists/team in the history of football. :think: hmmm, can't see myself wanting to swap lists in a big hurry.
Bizarre comment, but that's generally for people that only see the now.

Many of their supporters have already indicated that they believe their list is a middle of the road side that needs an overhaul
 

Smegger

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Bizarre comment, but that's generally for people that only see the now.

Many of their supporters have already indicated that they believe their list is a middle of the road side that needs an overhaul
Losing Cameron and Betts' getting closer to the end is hurting them (among others). IMO crows are hanging onto their "window" by fingernails.
 

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btdg

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Crows have put GC to the sword early - let’s hope we do the same next week.

Playing around with ladder predictor it now seems almost certain that Adelaide finish between 6th-9th. They have swing games vs Essendon and Collingwood (home) and Bulldogs (away) and the rest are either cupcake wins or very tough away games.

They can get above 6th if they play well in the swing games and either pinch a tough one (ie West Coast in Perth) or if Richmond/GWS/Brisbane really blow it. 5th isn’t a long shot, anything top 4 is.

If by some miracle we beat them then things maybe get interesting for us. A lot would depend on Hawthorn going on a mini-streak and grabbing an unexpected win (ie Geelong at the MCG next week) or North winning a couple. In that case there is a pathway to us getting to 14th and the Crows sitting 9-11th depending on their swing matchups and percentage. I’d say there’s a 25% chance of this outcome if we beat them in Melbourne.

So unless the Crows have a massive form slump it’s most likely we hand them pick 2, and get back 10-13 (likely to be 12-15 after academies). Absolute best case right now for us - GC get a priority, and we end up giving the Crows 7 (after the priority and GWS academy) and we get back 10 (factoring in the same extra selections and getting in before the second academy player picked)
 

btdg

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I should add that after starting to look at draft profiles, I think getting pick 10 or better is huge in this draft.

There are 2 standouts (3 if you count Greene from GWS academy) in Rowell and Anderson. Then there’s probably a tier of 6-7 players almost all of whom are either goalkicking mid/forwards or running defenders - exactly what we need. After that it thins out a bit.

Assuming we have pick 10 and that someone reaches for a ruck or KP player ahead, I think we come out of this ok if we get pick 10 or 11 - in that case we get Stocker plus someone who fits us really well in exchange for one of the 2 standouts.

End up below 12 and it starts getting very thin... unless we take a flyer on a ruckman or we want to take Dow’s brother.

In that best case scenario where we beat them and get to, say, 15th, while they slump to 10th or 11th, there is almost nothing separating the picks swapped imo. That makes this a huge win for us.

So in my very amateur, very early analysis:

- if we finish bottom 2 and miss out on a top 10 pick then we lose the trade badly (unless Stocker becomes Luke Hodge)

- if we finish bottom 2 and GC don’t get a priority pick 1 this trade is a win for Adelaide, who will access a player who they would never have got itherwise

- if they miss the finals, this trade is arguably a win for us, because we will get 2 players we like/need

- if we beat them, all bets are off and there is a pathway to this being a massive win for us and disaster for the Crows
 

Arr0w

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Crows have put GC to the sword early - let’s hope we do the same next week.

Playing around with ladder predictor it now seems almost certain that Adelaide finish between 6th-9th. They have swing games vs Essendon and Collingwood (home) and Bulldogs (away) and the rest are either cupcake wins or very tough away games.

They can get above 6th if they play well in the swing games and either pinch a tough one (ie West Coast in Perth) or if Richmond/GWS/Brisbane really blow it. 5th isn’t a long shot, anything top 4 is.

If by some miracle we beat them then things maybe get interesting for us. A lot would depend on Hawthorn going on a mini-streak and grabbing an unexpected win (ie Geelong at the MCG next week) or North winning a couple. In that case there is a pathway to us getting to 14th and the Crows sitting 9-11th depending on their swing matchups and percentage. I’d say there’s a 25% chance of this outcome if we beat them in Melbourne.

So unless the Crows have a massive form slump it’s most likely we hand them pick 2, and get back 10-13 (likely to be 12-15 after academies). Absolute best case right now for us - GC get a priority, and we end up giving the Crows 7 (after the priority and GWS academy) and we get back 10 (factoring in the same extra selections and getting in before the second academy player picked)
We won't finish bottom 2
 

btdg

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We won't finish bottom 2
Won’t we? Even given current form I think 17th is the likely outcome

We are 2 games back on St Kilda and 1 behind Melbourne, albeit with a percentage break

Melbourne play St Kilda, Sydney in Melb, and a couple of others that are possible but unlikely wins. They should get to 7 wins...

Saints play Melb, Bulldogs, Freo (h) and Sydney (a), as welll as us. They’ll win at least 1 of those.

Sydney play St Kilda, Freo and Melbourne, otherwise a tough draw, but they will win at least 1 game

For us, winning vs GC and StK won’t get us off the bottom. We need to pinch one from the Crows, Eagles, Richmond or Geelong, all of whom are competing for finals, AND hold our percentage above the other teams

Crazy as it seems, 7 wins might not itself be enough to get to 16th.

However, 6-7 wins and a belting of GC next week makes it very likely they get a PP... which would push the Crows to 3 and make our finish irrelevant imo.
 

Arr0w

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Won’t we? Even given current form I think 17th is the likely outcome

We are 2 games back on St Kilda and 1 behind Melbourne, albeit with a percentage break

Melbourne play St Kilda, Sydney in Melb, and a couple of others that are possible but unlikely wins. They should get to 7 wins...

Saints play Melb, Bulldogs, Freo (h) and Sydney (a), as welll as us. They’ll win at least 1 of those.

Sydney play St Kilda, Freo and Melbourne, otherwise a tough draw, but they will win at least 1 game

For us, winning vs GC and StK won’t get us off the bottom. We need to pinch one from the Crows, Eagles, Richmond or Geelong, all of whom are competing for finals, AND hold our percentage above the other teams

Crazy as it seems, 7 wins might not itself be enough to get to 16th.

However, 6-7 wins and a belting of GC next week makes it very likely they get a PP... which would push the Crows to 3 and make our finish irrelevant imo.
Demons were lucky to beat us, after we played poorly for most of the game

Swans, Saints, Dogs Freo still inconsistent

We could still climb out of the bottom 4
 

btdg

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Demons were lucky to beat us, after we played poorly for most of the game

Swans, Saints, Dogs Freo still inconsistent

We could still climb out of the bottom 4
That last goal to the Demons is the killer. Flip that result (and for fairness sake flip today) and we almost certainly get above them imo. But that’s an 8 point swing and after the Saints got start to the year...

It’s still possible, particularly if we beat the Crows, ironically (our best chance to snag another).

It’s just unlikely - I’d say 75% we finish 17th.
 

Arr0w

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That last goal to the Demons is the killer. Flip that result (and for fairness sake flip today) and we almost certainly get above them imo. But that’s an 8 point swing and after the Saints got start to the year...

It’s still possible, particularly if we beat the Crows, ironically (our best chance to snag another).

It’s just unlikely - I’d say 75% we finish 17th.
No doubt some earlier close results hurt us, but we are playing a more attacking style under Teague.

I still think it is still a 50/50 proposition
 

F_therest

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That last goal to the Demons is the killer. Flip that result (and for fairness sake flip today) and we almost certainly get above them imo. But that’s an 8 point swing and after the Saints got start to the year...

It’s still possible, particularly if we beat the Crows, ironically (our best chance to snag another).

It’s just unlikely - I’d say 75% we finish 17th.
Yeah 2 games behind with not that many games to go...would need all the luck to go our way and get 3+ wins and for teams like Sydney/Melb/Saints to completely fall away and basically win no more than 1-2 more games...

Win the Melb game and we'd be above them and only 1 game behind Sydney & Saints. That loss hurt.

Still certainly possible, we definitely should beat GC next week.
 

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