How do we take the next step to a premiership?

[Section 5]

While I disagree with briztoon 's conclusions, I agree with them that the midfield is slow with Lyons and Neale, and I don't think there's a lot of room left for other slow players in the midfield if we want to win premierships. As Zorko continues to lose pace with age, I'd hope we play him forward more, with Rayner and Cockatoo running through the midfield more instead.

Both Rayner & Cockatoo are quick over that first 20 meters but building endurance could be an issue. I think Rayner is closer than Cockatoo in this area
I included them both in the forward/midfield mix for the start of 2022
Rayner, we can only hope he gets back to that possible breakout stage. Then improve as the year unfolds. Just still an unknown with his injury
Cockatoo locked the goods at times but also looked cooked as the game wore on in each game he played.
Cockatoo needs an uninterrupted preseason and even then i don't see him in the middle much.
Some short stints in the middle as an impact player. Can't see him having the tank to do much else without a huge improvement
However i can visualize both streaming out of the middle Petracca style

 

[scoman]

If there’s only one of them on the field, sure.

Remember how we liked up during preseason at first bounce? I'm pretty sure it was Neale, Rayner and Berry in the centre square. I think the coaches are aware of that need, but the loss of Rayner, consistent injuries to Neale and the good form of Zorko meant by the finals we were back with a starting three of Neale, Lyons and Zorko. I honestly don't think we are as far off as you think Briz. An umpiring decision here, an injury there, a bounce of the ball and we probably would played a Grand final already with this list. The margins are tiny, but the narratives are large.

 

[Lazza16]

While I disagree with briztoon 's conclusions, I agree with them that the midfield is slow with Lyons and Neale, and I don't think there's a lot of room left for other slow players in the midfield if we want to win premierships. As Zorko continues to lose pace with age, I'd hope we play him forward more, with Rayner and Cockatoo running through the midfield more instead.

Yet to see any evidence of pace from Cocky except from highlight reels at Cats. I fear injuries have cruelled his body.

 

[irish]

Simple , be like Melbourne

 

[scoman]

Having a bit of a think about Melbourne's list and success today and it is quite remarkable just how few genuine A Grade types they have. Granted, they have possibly three of the top five players in the league, and thats a huge part of their success and future success to be sure. But after those three it starts to get a bit light on for AA types. Lever is very good and May, Fritsch and Salem put together fairly good seasons. There is potential there as well in young Jackson. But thats about it. From there it's a long list of capable, but fairly replaceable players.
You could probably make an argument that we have more of those Lever, May, Fritsch and Saleem level players. What this means is despite not having a player considered top 5-10 in the league, we have a large contingent of very, very good players in all areas of the field. Think Cameron, Daniher, Hipwood, Neale, Zorko, Clugga, Bailey, Andrews, Rich. We might not need those out and out superstars to win a premiership. For us it might be more of a Hawthorn (post buddy), West Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong (post Ablett) type team rather than the likes of Melbourne and Richmond who rely heavily on a couple of absolute stars, a few very good players and buy in from the rest of the group.

 

[Section 5]

Bailey

Yes Bailey is the one.
Has pace and can break lines
More mid time should bring him up to the 25 disposal average per game
However he needs to keep improving to get to that next level
Just turned 22 and has averaged 17.5 games over 4 seasons so is durable

Where Bailey improved
Years 2020 to 2021 - Total Centre Clearances: 4 (19 games) up to 28 (24 games)
Years 2020 to 2021 - Total Stoppage clearances: 9 up to 39
Years 2020 to 2021 - Total goals: 13 up to 31
Years 2020 to 2021 - Inside 50's: 55 to 103

Average per game % increases years 2020 to 2021
Contested possession: + 58.3%
Uncontested possession: +22.7%
Total disposals: +36.6%
Effective disposals: + 25%
Meters Gained: + 21.4%
Tackles inside 50: + 91.6%

 

[scoman]

Bit out there this one. E Smith to breakout as a Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

type. Was certainly drafted as that kind of player. Quick off the mark, good size, good hands. Ok, so maybe we would have to squint a bit, throw a red wig and some sunscreen on the lad. But yeah.

 

[davemc_lions]

Bailey

hopefully
as said unless we find one we have now even if we draft you need to wait 3-4 years

 

[Paul Mac]

Having a bit of a think about Melbourne's list and success today and it is quite remarkable just how few genuine A Grade types they have. Granted, they have possibly three of the top five players in the league, and thats a huge part of their success and future success to be sure. But after those three it starts to get a bit light on for AA types. Lever is very good and May, Fritsch and Salem put together fairly good seasons. There is potential there as well in young Jackson. But thats about it. From there it's a long list of capable, but fairly replaceable players.
You could probably make an argument that we have more of those Lever, May, Fritsch and Saleem level players. What this means is despite not having a player considered top 5-10 in the league, we have a large contingent of very, very good players in all areas of the field. Think Cameron, Daniher, Hipwood, Neale, Zorko, Clugga, Bailey, Andrews, Rich. We might not need those out and out superstars to win a premiership. For us it might be more of a Hawthorn (post buddy), West Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong (post Ablett) type team rather than the likes of Melbourne and Richmond who rely heavily on a couple of absolute stars, a few very good players and buy in from the rest of the group.

Having watched Melbourne last few months when the ball hits the ground many times they have extras around the ball. Swear blind sitting their thinking they must have more men on the ground than oppo team. Why does this happen, work rate?, structure?, All i know is they are all on the same page with each other and if everyone is working to the same hymn page then doesn't matter how many champions you have in the team, as long as the game plan is in place and everyone working to the same structures which obviously goodwin has them doing, then anything possible.

 

[martinson]

Bit out there this one. E Smith to breakout as a Clayton Oliver type. Was certainly drafted as that kind of player. Quick off the mark, good size, good hands. Ok, so maybe we would have to squint a bit, throw a red wig and some sunscreen on the lad. But yeah.

It's a great idea if he didn't have to play footy.

 

[martinson]

Having watched Melbourne last few months when the ball hits the ground many times they have extras around the ball. Swear blind sitting their thinking they must have more men on the ground than oppo team. Why does this happen, work rate?, structure?, All i know is they are all on the same page with each other and if everyone is working to the same hymn page then doesn't matter how many champions you have in the team, as long as the game plan is in place and everyone working to the same structures which obviously goodwin has them doing, then anything possible.

Very well coached.

Something that has been lost in all the euphoria

 

[briztoon]

Remember how we liked up during preseason at first bounce? I'm pretty sure it was Neale, Rayner and Berry in the centre square. I think the coaches are aware of that need, but the loss of Rayner, consistent injuries to Neale and the good form of Zorko meant by the finals we were back with a starting three of Neale, Lyons and Zorko. I honestly don't think we are as far off as you think Briz. An umpiring decision here, an injury there, a bounce of the ball and we probably would played a Grand final already with this list. The margins are tiny, but the narratives are large.

I believe we can make a grand final. But if we’re up against Melbourne I don’t believe we win.

For me, it’s obvious that we lack a gun mid who can rip a game away from an opposition.

Replace Lyons with an in their prime Dusty, Danger, Fyfe or Petracca type player, and we would have the team which could win a grand final. But we don’t have one of those types of player on our list.

 

[briztoon]

Bit out there this one. E Smith to breakout as a Clayton Oliver type. Was certainly drafted as that kind of player. Quick off the mark, good size, good hands. Ok, so maybe we would have to squint a bit, throw a red wig and some sunscreen on the lad. But yeah.

Believe you’re overselling Ely a fair bit there.

He tested well for speed and leap, but didn’t use those attributes in games as a junior.

 

[BangyBangy]

I believe we can make a grand final. But if we’re up against Melbourne I don’t believe we win.

For me, it’s obvious that we lack a gun mid who can rip a game away from an opposition.

Replace Lyons with an in their prime Dusty, Danger, Fyfe or Petracca type player, and we would have the team which could win a grand final. But we don’t have one of those types of player on our list.

You know, before those players became stars, they weren't stars. They were players with potential. Sure might have shown a bit earlier etc etc, but not every flower blossoms early (wow, did I actually type that?).

No one knows what Rayner, Bailey, Robertson, Berry, Starcevich, or maybe whoever we take in the draft this year will achieve next year.

I sure as hell hope both Lane & Fullarton develop quickly though.

 

[scoman]

It's a great idea if he didn't have to play footy.

Believe you’re overselling Ely a fair bit there.

He tested well for speed and leap, but didn’t use those attributes in games as a junior.

Yeah I'm not sure why I posted the above really. The thought just occured to me that this was exactly the type of player (Oliver) the club would have had in mind when they drafted him. His highlight reel showed a guy winning the ball in traffic and quickly firing the ball outside. When he tested so well athletically, combined with his man child physique there was plenty of optimism he might put it all together at some point. I guess that's why we kind of reached for him at the time.

 

[scoman]

I believe we can make a grand final. But if we’re up against Melbourne I don’t believe we win.

For me, it’s obvious that we lack a gun mid who can rip a game away from an opposition.

Replace Lyons with an in their prime Dusty, Danger, Fyfe or Petracca type player, and we would have the team which could win a grand final. But we don’t have one of those types of player on our list.

Did Hawthorn post Buddy have that kind of player though? Geelong without Ablett in their premiership years? West Coast a couple years back? Collingwood with the brat pack under Malthouse?
I think we are assembling a side like those teams. Lots of talent on each line, but maybe not that out and out superstar in the midfield. Although, one or two may emerge, or at the very least be that Pendlebury, Yeo, Swan, Hodge, Mitchell, Selwood, Bartell level player. Neale may even be at that level arguably.

 

[briztoon]

You know, before those players became stars, they weren't stars. They were players with potential. Sure might have shown a bit earlier etc etc, but not every flower blossoms early (wow, did I actually type that?).

No one knows what Rayner, Bailey, Robertson, Berry, Starcevich, or maybe whoever we take in the draft this year will achieve next year.

I sure as hell hope both Lane & Fullarton develop quickly though.

A lot of posters here talk up our players like they will all reach their full potential, or are potential A graders.

I don’t necessarily have the same opinion.

I believe Rayner can be a very good player, but won’t have the endurance to play through the midfield as much as Petracca or Dusty. He’ll be much more a forward who has short bursts in the midfield.

I believe Starcevich is who is. He might have the ability to go in to the midfield, but I have my reservations that he’ll have a big impact through there.

Bailey I hope reaches Zorko levels.

Robertson I hope reaches Lyons levels, but is a much better defensive runner, and has more speed.

Berry I have big reservations about being anything more than a B grade mid. I can even see the possibility of him not being in our best 22 in 3 years time.

 

[briztoon]

Did Hawthorn post Buddy have that kind of player though? Geelong without Ablett in their premiership years? West Coast a couple years back? Collingwood with the brat pack under Malthouse?
I think we are assembling a side like those teams. Lots of talent on each line, but maybe not that out and out superstar in the midfield. Although, one or two may emerge, or at the very least be that Pendlebury, Yeo, Swan, Hodge, Mitchell, Selwood, Bartell level player. Neale may even be at that level arguably.

That’s kind of what I was trying to say at the beginning of this, that we can build that type of team, around the likes of McCluggage, Rayner and Ashcroft.

It’s just that I also said that I don’t believe we’ll have that team with both Neale and Lyons in the same team. Certainly not if we’re pushing Berry in there as well.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

We might not need those out and out superstars to win a premiership. For us it might be more of a Hawthorn (post buddy), West Coast, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong (post Ablett) type team rather than the likes of Melbourne and Richmond who rely heavily on a couple of absolute stars, a few very good players and buy in from the rest of the group.

The first category certainly has less risk attached, because a spread of talent means a couple of injuries or suspensions won't kill you. West Coast still won a premiership without Nic Nat and Gaff, whereas when Dusty got hurt this season, goodnight folks.

I sure as hell hope both Lane & Fullarton develop quickly though.

I'd suggest tempering those hopes. Talls usually take until they're 24-25 to truly break out, unless they're superfreak athletes. There's no rush with Lane anyway if we get Fort, he'll be just fine as a backup ruck.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I believe Rayner can be a very good player, but won’t have the endurance to play through the midfield as much as Petracca or Dusty. He’ll be much more a forward who has short bursts in the midfield.

The point has been made a few times I've seen, although I'm unsure if you addressed it - Petracca had all the hallmarks of a player with poor endurance who wasn't going to live up to his potential, Martin was similar. Perhaps you weren't following footy as closely back then.

I'd never predict Rayner will definitely follow a similar trajectory, but he has very similar strengths and weaknesses as those two players at similar stages of their careers. Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but at best it's a case of a lack of knowledge and at worst wilful ignorance.

 

[Hollow Knight]

 

[BangyBangy]

The first category certainly has less risk attached, because a spread of talent means a couple of injuries or suspensions won't kill you. West Coast still won a premiership without Nic Nat and Gaff, whereas when Dusty got hurt this season, goodnight folks.


I'd suggest tempering those hopes. Talls usually take until they're 24-25 to truly break out, unless they're superfreak athletes. There's no rush with Lane anyway if we get Fort, he'll be just fine as a backup ruck.

No Johnny I won't temper my hopes. I want one of them to be as good as Luke Jackson by finals time next year

Good golly, just looked him up, thought he'd been in the system for a few years. Was drafted in 2019, thought it was earlier.

On a serious note though, did the Dees really tank again in 2019? Oh no, just a bad year for injuries, whatever pfft.

Didn't the Pies & West Coast do something similar before too? Collingwood in the year they got Dale Thomas.

I for one don't endorse tanking, but if Neale does end up being a late trade to Freo this year, next year wouldn't be a bad year for us to finish cold stone last and end up with pick 1 & Will Ashcroft

 

[MacMum]

Only 7 actually, four of which were on the bench. They've certainly drafted very well in the last few years (Pickett, Jackson, Rivers, Spargo etc) but what sets them apart is they have a huge amount of talent at the ages of 24-26, who are just hitting their prime now. Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw, Lever, Fritsch, Salem, Harmes, Langdon and Neal-Bullen are all in that range. That's the age where players really start to be good enough to contribute strongly in premiership campaigns.

Ah right....I must've thought he said eleven but it was seven. Thanks, my mistake.

 

[Sherrinator]

Having watched Melbourne last few months when the ball hits the ground many times they have extras around the ball. Swear blind sitting their thinking they must have more men on the ground than oppo team. Why does this happen, work rate?, structure?, All i know is they are all on the same page with each other and if everyone is working to the same hymn page then doesn't matter how many champions you have in the team, as long as the game plan is in place and everyone working to the same structures which obviously goodwin has them doing, then anything possible.

The positioning thing is confidence that they know that Gawn is going to tap to the right spot. Sometimes the bounce of the ball doesn't go your way but it's a lot easier to be positioned well when your ruckman is the best (by a mile).

Our midfield positioning looks like we need to be very ready to run the other way or tackle. We will need to be exceptionally dynamic in the midfield with hopefully Rayner and Cockatoo (and Berry) contributing since our ruck department isn't going to get stronger.

 

[briztoon]

The point has been made a few times I've seen, although I'm unsure if you addressed it - Petracca had all the hallmarks of a player with poor endurance who wasn't going to live up to his potential, Martin was similar. Perhaps you weren't following footy as closely back then.

I'd never predict Rayner will definitely follow a similar trajectory, but he has very similar strengths and weaknesses as those two players at similar stages of their careers. Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but at best it's a case of a lack of knowledge and at worst wilful ignorance.

In his under age years, Petracca especially, played through and showed much more ability in the midfield.

Rayner didn’t play anywhere near as much midfield in the TAC cup or U18 Championships as Petracca did.

Yes Petracca had poor endurance coming in to the AFL, but he still spent more time in the midfield at AFL level, after coming back from his knee reco, than Rayner has to date.

Edit: Dusty was before my time.