How do we take the next step to a premiership?

[Mighty Lions]

A lot of that's likely true but, in the context of the proposal to play 2 rucks and 3 key forwards, it is a fair enough concern to raise. Irrespective of the reason why, playing an extra tall creates a big risk to our defensive structure.

How? Adding another key forward (Hippy) improves our defensive structure so I don't understand your thoughts. Please elaborate.

 

[POBT]

How? Adding another key forward (Hippy) improves our defensive structure so I don't understand your thoughts. Please elaborate.

Last year, we played 3 forwards and 1 ruck. That meant there were large parts of the game where we played two forwards and a ruck.

It is being proposed to play 3 tall forwards and 2 rucks. That presumably means that, at all times, we will have 3 tall forwards in play, plus a ruckman. That has to be a risk, given taller players generally don't cover the ground as well, don't have the same agility, aren't as effective at ground level. Hipwood could be a 200cm version of Cyril Rioli and we'd still be running a risk of being too tall with 3 tall forwards and 2 rucks.

Then add in the fact that the additional tall is taking the spot of a running player. That means more TOG for the guys who have to cover the ground all day. Every side plays its key position players for greater TOG% than its running players because you want maximum effort constantly from the latter. Playing an extra tall comes at a significant cost to that.

I'm never opposed to a concept being trialled, including this one. But we have to have our eyes open to the consequences. When assessing risk-reward, you can't just focus on the reward.

 

[lionraven]

I think Daniher, McStay and Big O are locks. I dont recall many games were we played 5 talls (2 rucks, 3 tall forwards). We always have that 4th option being either a ruck (Martin/Smith) or a forward/ruck (Ballenden/Fullerton). The only developed ruck/forward we have on our list is Big O who has now transitioned to mainly ruck. It was tough with Martin as we couldnt rest him forward given his forward craft and goal kicking weren't good enough. We would have to rest him behind the ball or on the bench. Big O can rest forward and still be effective as the deepest forward. I like seeing Daniher play in the ruck as I think getting him touches frees him up a bit and gets him into the game. He seems to be a player that feeds on momentum and if he is just kept deep without getting any touches he can fade from the game. What I disliked about playing Daniher in the ruck is he seemed to get gassed later in the match and wasnt as effective in the forward line afterwards. I like McStay as CHF running up and down the ground being that link player. He also lays some fantastic pressure for a big player.

The question for me this preseason is who can solidify that 4th tall spot. If fort can play as a ruck/forward then ideally ruck time should be split 40/40 between Big O + Fort with 20% Daniher for an altered centre bounce look/forward 50 stoppage ruck setup. Fort and Big O would continue to switch between ruck and forward throughout the game with aiming for almost 0 time on bench. If Fullerton has been building his muscle mass (as seen on some of his recent photos) I would like to see him play predominantly forward with ruck time 70/30 between Big and Fullerton/Daniher. Payne is the other interesting one. He looked decent enough when thrown into the deep end last finals. Do we swing him forward for a year and see how he can develop given Adams/Andrews/Gardiner have locked up the 3 back roles.

 

[davemc_lions]

Honestly when we got over run in games
Charlie and Joe both run one way more often than not. People underestimate the work Hippy and McStay do.
Mids Lyons and Neale if you get past them your away. Add M Robbo to this as well. Berry was under done.
Our back 6 like to zone off as well. Rich and Birchall not fast.. Left Starc to cover everything
Add to that Harris knee seems a problem why he seemed to not run. Darcy was way under done.

When you have the ball being overly attacking works.
If you turn it over teams run in waves and we get cut up easy
Could say that for most teams although we lack runners and speed in the midfield.
Lyons and Neale both great players although both together we need something different in there as well.

 

[Section 5]

Last year, we played 3 forwards and 1 ruck. That meant there were large parts of the game where we played two forwards and a ruck.

It is being proposed to play 3 tall forwards and 2 rucks. That presumably means that, at all times, we will have 3 tall forwards in play, plus a ruckman. That has to be a risk, given taller players generally don't cover the ground as well, don't have the same agility, aren't as effective at ground level. Hipwood could be a 200cm version of Cyril Rioli and we'd still be running a risk of being too tall with 3 tall forwards and 2 rucks.

Then add in the fact that the additional tall is taking the spot of a running player. That means more TOG for the guys who have to cover the ground all day. Every side plays its key position players for greater TOG% than its running players because you want maximum effort constantly from the latter. Playing an extra tall comes at a significant cost to that.

I'm never opposed to a concept being trialled, including this one. But we have to have our eyes open to the consequences. When assessing risk-reward, you can't just focus on the reward.

I get what you are saying and they are all valid points

The team that wins the premiership usually does something different to others
Just take this year most posts are about how to match/beat Melbourne at their own game. This won't work as they have a big start on their game-plan
I remember Mick Malthouse saying their "around the boundary" style was 3 years in the making before the Pies were successful

Regarding the bolded
With 3 talls i would hope the ball will be marked more in our forward 50 therefore reducing defensive pressure in that area
I think not marking the ball in the first place is where opposition waltz out of our forward 50 along with kicking directly to the opposition
We are a very good stoppage team so i don't see that as our issue

I expect Jo or someone else takes the ruck duties inside 10/35 that leaves Oscar positioned somewhere defensively between wing/halfback.
You are correct about TOG for key forwards in general but not all of them.
Jo's TOG is 93.83% with some ruck duties. Personally i would like to see this reduced to 88/90%
He suffers from obvious fatigue at times and it shows in his non pressure also at times
Josh Bruce 86% Jeromy Cameron 82.47% Ben King 90% Franklin 89.7%

A good debate on the pros and cons of just 1 positional change to our Lions team

 

[davemc_lions]

with defensive structures and we also often bomb it in.
Marks inside 50 will be down.
I do not mind if the ball hits the ground we have some talented smalls.
Problem is we often get our bombs into forward 50 picked off which then allows the ball to move quickly.
A few of our forwards if they cannot mark need to do more to spoil it. Often you see someone watching a defender mark.
Having players who are not super fast we get caught on the spread.

Not to say we do not do the same from Adams/Andrews and Rich too takes a lot of intercept marks.
Just the less intercept marks the better.. I do think we miss some speed and spread from our midfield.
Our fastest players are normally in the forward line. J Berry if he ever can get fit has the running power that will help.
Hence I also think why Sharp got games. Zorko had a great year although has dropped off a little pace wise
Bailey sometimes runs one way although hope he can learn more defensive pressure

 

[Grasshopper17]

Then add in the fact that the additional tall is taking the spot of a running player. That means more TOG for the guys who have to cover the ground all day. Every side plays its key position players for greater TOG% than its running players because you want maximum effort constantly from the latter. Playing an extra tall comes at a significant cost to that.

All the more reason for us to be the fittest side in the comp. There's no reason why this should not be the case, given the conditions our guys face every preseason compared to basically every other club.

There's plenty of clichés I can throw in here, like "the little men might get slower but the big men don't get any shorter", or my personal favourite "big men play big roles in big games". Our game plan has served us well in the regular season but has come up short in finals. There are parallels between us 2019-21 and Port Adelaide 2001-3. It wasn't until Port adjusted their game plan away from their possession based style of game (which hindsight has demonstrated was ahead of its time) to kicking longer into their forward line that they got reward for their efforts in September.

Our strategy of sucking all our tall forwards up outside 50 and leaving the short people to roam free in the forward line may yet prove to be the benchmark for the next 20 years. But until it proves sustainable in September we are far better off having our deepest forward be a tall one basically at all times, and playing 3 key forwards plus a ruckman on the field at all times (with a 5th tall on the bench) will most easily facilitate this.

The other thing which hasn't really been touched on by anyone in this discussion is that playing a third key forward makes it harder for the opposition to play a loose floating defender to come across packs as the third man up etc. Particularly if all three of our key forwards are able to separate themselves from each other (this is something we have done very poorly, if at all, in recent seasons). Obviously we think first of Jake Lever, but the competition has plenty of them and it's a trend that will only be accentuated by Melbourne's success.

 

[pulpdriver]

I know the season isn't over but it feels on Sunday evening it felt like it was to me. Maybe we manage to pull a flag this year but don't see it. We're mentally weak, lack leadership on field and are absolutely garbage at defending. Think we need a serious review at the end of the year and some list turnover. Doesn't need to be a full rebuild, imo there's the nucleus of a flag team on our list, but we need to make some bold moves to take the next step.

We remind me of the Tigers a few years ago who had been a talented team but not good enough to go the distance. After flopping in three successive finals and then missing them altogether in 2016 the Tigers let Vickery leave as a FA, accommodated Lids trade request to GWS and traded in Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy. In the same off-season they drafted Bolton and Graham. After being bold at the trade table and drafting some guns they tweaked the gameplan to utilise the list's strengths and the rest is history.

Time to be bold.

 

[scoman]

Reading some of the comments and they could have been written Sunday night.

What a waste of a year.

 

[M Malice]

I know the season isn't over but it feels on Sunday evening it felt like it was to me. Maybe we manage to pull a flag this year but don't see it. We're mentally weak, lack leadership on field and are absolutely garbage at defending. Think we need a serious review at the end of the year and some list turnover. Doesn't need to be a full rebuild, imo there's the nucleus of a flag team on our list, but we need to make some bold moves to take the next step.

We remind me of the Tigers a few years ago who had been a talented team but not good enough to go the distance. After flopping in three successive finals and then missing them altogether in 2016 the Tigers let Vickery leave as a FA, accommodated Lids trade request to GWS and traded in Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy. In the same off-season they drafted Bolton and Graham. After being bold at the trade table and drafting some guns they tweaked the gameplan to utilise the list's strengths and the rest is history.

Time to be bold.

IMO a few players could transform us for the better eg. Ashcroft(likely to have a similar impact to Daicos), Dev Robertson into the inside mid rotation, Madden for some speed down back, Kai Lohmann up front for speed, consistent pressure and intensity. Plus experiment with Starcevich as a mid in the pre season. If at all possible trade in a very good to elite 2 way running mid.

The players to go out > Lyons, Robinson, Mathieson, McStay(play 2 talls up front.. go smaller), Rich.. maybe Answerth.

 

[Squizz89]

I know the season isn't over but it feels on Sunday evening it felt like it was to me. Maybe we manage to pull a flag this year but don't see it. We're mentally weak, lack leadership on field and are absolutely garbage at defending. Think we need a serious review at the end of the year and some list turnover. Doesn't need to be a full rebuild, imo there's the nucleus of a flag team on our list, but we need to make some bold moves to take the next step.

We remind me of the Tigers a few years ago who had been a talented team but not good enough to go the distance. After flopping in three successive finals and then missing them altogether in 2016 the Tigers let Vickery leave as a FA, accommodated Lids trade request to GWS and traded in Prestia, Nankervis and Caddy. In the same off-season they drafted Bolton and Graham. After being bold at the trade table and drafting some guns they tweaked the gameplan to utilise the list's strengths and the rest is history.

Time to be bold.

You are right it is time to be bold if we want any chance of getting a flag out of this group.

I said this the other day regarding the DeGoey discussion, that I’m just not sure if the higher ups are risk takers like that.

I get why we have been such a “steady” organisation the last few years. Look where we came from at the end of 2016. Keeping the playing group, the game plan and the coaching staff largely unchanged made sense to get some continuity and consistency in the place and to once again lift morale around the joint.

To take the next step though something needs to give. Like I said though, that would require a change in thinking from management down I think, which I’m just not sure whether they’re willing to do.

 

[pulpdriver]

IMO a few players could transform us for the better eg. Ashcroft(likely to have a similar impact to Daicos), Dev Robertson into the inside mid rotation, Madden for some speed down back, Kai Lohmann up front for speed, consistent pressure and intensity. Plus experiment with Starcevich as a mid in the pre season. If at all possible trade in a very good to elite 2 way running mid.

The players to go out > Lyons, Robinson, Mathieson, McStay(play 2 talls up front.. go smaller), Rich.. maybe Answerth.

Wish we had two Starces. He has a skillset that makes it so enticing to see him in the midfield and could be just what we need there but how he well played in the Clash and how much we missed him on Sunday underline we also need him in defence.

Wouldn't be against Answerth trying to re-invent himself as a defensive/tagging mid. I think we've got some players that offer more than he does as defenders playing in the 2s and can see him being overtaken soon enough if he doesn't add some more strings to him bow. No idea if he's ever even played midfield at a lower level though. Think even before being drafted he played as a defender.

 

[Elixuh]

Next season? Fix the gaps in the midfield and implement a team defence.

Melbourne were like witches hats in 2020. Spent the off-season building a team defence and won a premiership.

This season? Play the kids.

 

[martinson]

If we couldn't get ourselves up in a game of yesterday's importance with a 7 goal start then I'm not sure how we expect to have much impact in finals.
We've got too many players who are vulnerable under pressure ,just not steady enough.

I really don't mean to single out Rayner because he has some good qualities , but when he realised he had the play on he panicked and couldn't kick it quick enough. When he could've tapped it on the ground and run in to a virtual open goal . To me it typified us in clutch moments ,just not enough composure. The list of miskicks and lack steadiness in the 4th quarter was as long as your arm.

Whether the players just aren't good enough or need some mental reconditioning who knows but we need to get back to the basics. Solid defensive team structure , go with the flow when you're on fire and close it down quickly when you're under pressure.

 

[davemc_lions]

Reading some of the comments and they could have been written Sunday night.

What a waste of a year.

a couple of my replies above look like I typed them today.
Same problem for years.

Interesting was it on the couch tonight they talking about how Cats saw a need for run.
Pick swapped brought Holmes in.
I think Lohmann looks a good pick.
Just play him
Give Dev a chance as a inside mid not a run with player. Say go get your ball.

 

[M Malice]

Of all our defensive frailties the most damning is the bolded, it is an indictment on our playing and coaching group >

Since Round 10, the Lions have been ranked 16th for points against, 15th for opposition scores per inside 50, 13th for points against from turnovers, 14th for points against from clearances and, of most concern, 18th for points against from defensive half.

“It’s clearly not just the defensive half of the ground where the struggles are or the back six – it’s all over the ground. So defending ball movement and not exposing your back six.”

‘Keeping coaches up at night’: Concerns seven clubs must address to become genuine flag contender
__________________________________________________
Teams are just strolling from one end of the field to the other.

 

[mpal6]

Harry Sharp was primed to takeover that wing spot. Whatever happened to him in 2s I don't know. He should be shown Ed Langdon

15

Ed Langdon

Age

29

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.0

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

20.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

7.5

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

0.8

1star

CL

1.8

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.6

3star

's videos and try to mimic his playing style. If there is an absolute weapon we have for the wing, it'll be the steeplechaser in Sharp. He can destroy opposition with his gut running next year.

 

[M Malice]

Harry Sharp was primed to takeover that wing spot. Whatever happened to him in 2s I don't know. He should be shown Ed Langdon's videos and try to mimic his playing style. If there is an absolute weapon we have for the wing, it'll be the steeplechaser in Sharp. He can destroy opposition with his gut running next year.

Not sure he has the natural footy smarts on my viewing of him... still plenty of time though, turns 20 next year.

 

[mpal6]

Not sure he has the natural footy smarts on my viewing of him... still plenty of time though, turns 20 next year.

He looked tremendous when he debuted in his rookie year. Repeat efforts, leaving 2-3 opponents gasping for air while he strolled past them to collect footy, run back to help out in defense, natural footy smarts didn't look like an issue at all back then.

 

[Nathan Barley]

He looked tremendous when he debuted in his rookie year. Repeat efforts, leaving 2-3 opponents gasping for air while he strolled past them to collect footy, run back to help out in defense, natural footy smarts didn't look like an issue at all back then.

I think you're exaggerating his impact last year

 

[mpal6]

I think you're exaggerating his impact last year

Just one game but he did something in the wing which I haven't seen our normal wingers do. He took off and there were 2 players chasing him, they could not catch him. Was pretty exciting to watch.

 

[Scubaveg]

I heard an interview with Cameron (gws coach) in the preseason, he was teeing off that 'his reserves midfield was beating up his midfield' it struck me at the time that this was

1) not real good for the younger guys
2) rather inflexible and
3) perhaps this is why Cameron never got the best out of the elite group he had

My fear now is Fagan is the same and well end up with the same result.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[CarterS]

I think it's mainly a confidence under pressure thing and the only thing that will fix it is an away finals win against a top 4 team (not easy).

 

[brutus76]

Ashcroft will be a best 22 if he comes
Fletcher would be close to it

Maybe a KPD so Harris can play CHB and not FB?

 

[Tom14]

Can we crowd fund a stem cell treatment for Harris' knees?