How does Labor win the next federal election/elections to come?

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Taylor

Community Leader
Jul 16, 2009
60,328
73,421
Perth
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Fremantle
Federal solar battery subsidy, to be administered by the states and required to be local companies.

Match all tax cuts, promise more spending for national water security project which will create hundreds of thousands of jobs and stimulate the economy while providing water security for generations to come.

Huge covered reservoirs built, pumping stations installed. The lowest rainfall for a capital city in Australia is Adelaide with 553mm. The average 7m by 50m suburban street will collect 193,550 litres a year - storm water redirected to reservoirs. All homes to have on-site detention tanks to limit the flow if required, which it would be.

It would only need to be done on major highways though. The Mitchell Freeway here would collect in excess of 170,000,000 litres a year. Which is 3.4% of the water capacity of something the size of Optus stadium and there is 5900km of highway in this country.

Water is about to become a traded precious commodity, we can build a farm that harvests that which falls from the sky and we try and get rid of as much as possible.
 

Power Raid

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Oct 15, 2004
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Wind coming in at $0.15 per kwh, so backing technologies with high energy prices is always a winner

Alternatively Labor could back Australian technologies at $0.07 per kwh



this would fast track our hydrogen production (a $200b industry per annum globally) saving a iron ore industry. Another Australian invention here would make this happen, which is currently going to the UK if not saved.
 
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random260

Club Legend
Apr 20, 2013
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Maybe not shit on males.

Or this may confuse labour supporter.

Propose funding something other than education, healthcare or environmental technologies.

Maybe some more police officers? Maybe construction funding by itself and no not solar panels? Maybe funnel money into male workplaces like oil, gas, mining or construction, fishing, farming, argiculture, logging.
 

Power Raid

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Maybe not sh*t on males.

Or this may confuse labour supporter.

Propose funding something other than education, healthcare or environmental technologies.

Maybe some more police officers? Maybe construction funding by itself and no not solar panels? Maybe funnel money into male workplaces like oil, gas, mining or construction, fishing, farming, argiculture, logging.

police are a state issue unless you mean federal police
 

Caesar

Ex-Huckleberry
Mar 3, 2005
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John Hewson’s comments after last year’s elections were instructive – his view was that in 2019 (like 2004 and 1993) the government won an impossible election because the voters were scared of the opposition. In 1993 and 2004, the government took it as a message that they were invincible (rather than accepting that they got lucky with an opposition that stunk things up) and blithely continued on to obliteration at the next poll.

The Morrison government seems to be continuing down a similar path to Keating and Howard, which presents a huge opportunity for Labor. With a charismatic leader and an inoffensive policy platform, they should piss it in.

Chalmers seems the obvious choice – he comes across as smart and likeable, and being a Queensander is a big bonus. If the ALP ditch their opposition to tax cuts and scale back the anti-coal rhetoric, they should have no problem getting the necessary votes in Queensland and Western Sydney (even if they have to sacrifice a few in Victoria).

Whether that is a recipe for long-term success for the ALP is a different matter. I do think at some point they’re going to have to square their different demographics if they want to spend more time in government than opposition.
 

Not Important

because i said so.
Oct 4, 2016
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go negative and personal like the libs do so effectively. scummo has a past and made error after error. go after him.

problem is a dud leader in albo. a media that scummo has in his pocket. and dumb workers who will vote liberal despite having their wages depressed, the work force casualised losing benefits, and a union bashing pro big business anti worker government. go figure.
 

kranky al

Has NEVER sh@t himself in maccas
Jun 30, 2009
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go negative and personal like the libs do so effectively. scummo has a past and made error after error. go after him.

problem is a dud leader in albo. a media that scummo has in his pocket. and dumb workers who will vote liberal despite having their wages depressed, the work force casualised losing benefits, and a union bashing pro big business anti worker government. go figure.
Id love to be at an ad agency making attack ads on morrison.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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Jun 22, 2008
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Have a leader that people would be happy to have representing them.

Since the days of Hawke and Keating the only one I would have genuinely voted for was Gillard and we never got the chance.
 

tandino

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 16, 2007
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Don't concern yourself too much with the professional progressive inner city set, you're going to end up with most of their votes whatever you do.

I'd have thought elections turn on the outer suburbs working/aspirational class. Go and find out what their concerns are.
 

Power Raid

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themes

- unemployment likely to remain high
- bank mortgage stress as a result
- property prices likely to remain under pressure, if but for building grants. Meaning homeowners struggling to pay mortgages, may struggle to sell and keep their deposits
- china imposing tariffs on our exports or increasing barriers to entry may place huge stress on our industry. When Brazil comes back online, watch the Pilbara iron ore come under pressure

Solutions
- promote hydrogen - to create SA & Pilbara based steel
- manufacture nuclear fuel rods in SA (Australia can do this 50% cheaper than the rest of the world)
- Commission the same SMR that Ontario State Power has resulting in the cheapest reliable power and heat required to produce hydrogen
- cheap power will make local industry competitive again
- cheap power offsets the inflation risk posed by de-globalisation
- lower inflation maintains low interest rates, promoting investment in industry rather than non-productive asset classes
- sign new trade and property right agreements gloablly to offset the impact of China
- Work with India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and the middle east to improve trade


but the real issue......put forward a leader the electorate trusts. A leader renowned for cheating on his missus, f'ing over the union members they represent and envy politics like franking, negative gearing and super are a great recipe for failure.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Sep 10, 2010
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To return to power, Labor need to understand where exactly the last election was lost (Queensland, Tasmania) and the types of electorates they were lost in (mostly suburban, a few regional). In particular, several seats on the fringes of Brisbane (Dickson, Longman, Petrie, Forde, Bonner) were marginal in 2016 for one side or the other, and they all went LNP. The ones that were already LNP all had sizeable swings further to the LNP. Also, the very similar electorate of Blair was only retained by a slim margin of 1%. Labor need to appeal to these voters to win government. As Antony Green says,
since 1987, Labor has only been able to win federal elections when it can win more than its usual tally of six to eight Queensland seats. Good results in Queensland at the 1987, 1990, 1993 and 2007 elections corresponded to Federal Labor victories. A bad result in 2010 coincided with a period of minority Labor government, and worse results at other elections sent Labor into opposition.

So Labor need to know exactly what these fringe suburban voters value and give them more of that. To understand what those values are, it's worth reading this article about why Queensland voted so solidly for the LNP in 2019. Kevin Rudd explains using Maslow's hierarchy of needs what voters tend to value in federal elections: money and safety. Pretty much all of these areas except Bonner are socio-economically low compared to the rest of South East Queensland, so the cost of living is going to be a big issue. Labor can win on this front if they promise more welfare and don't announce any new taxes.

On safety, Labor are always going to find it hard to compete with the LNP on asylum seekers, but it isn't the pressing issue it once was, and safety has other facets to it. Voters generally feel safer with people they see as similar to them, and most of the electorates I mentioned are name-dropped in the article as being particularly religious areas. So it's no surprise they embraced Scummo and his very public displays of religious practices.

Another thing Rudd mentions is regionalism - Queenslanders will vote for locals. Take Rudd himself, despite being a glasses-wearing Mandarin-speaking pointy-headed inner-city intellectual, he helped Labor gain Blair, Bonner, Forde, Longman and Petrie, as well as four regional electorates. Labor haven't come close to that level of success in Queensland since.

For all those reasons, they badly need to chuck Albo and try out Jim Chalmers in the top job. Albo came to power too late and just looks like a low-energy irrelevant relic of the 2007-2013 period now. As much as it shouldn't matter who the leader is, the electorate cares, which is why Shorten lost the 2019 election, he had all the charisma of a wet lettuce.

Chalmers would be particularly valuable as a leader because he is from the Brisbane fringe and so he should know their issues of greatest concern back to front. He should instantly be able to counter Scummo's relatability since he's a local, something Shorten, Albo and Plibersek can't do because they're all inner-city politicians from Sydney and Melbourne. He won't be able to out-religion Scummo, but he doesn't need to, his lukewarm Catholicism should be enough to be relatable. Plus he has the advantage of being young and from a new generation, being a full ten years younger than Shorten and Scummo, and fifteen years younger than Albo. Worked for Rudd.
 

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EasternTiger

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 15, 2007
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Chalmers has the charisma of a pet rock and his tone is almost apologetic, like he's sorry for wasting your time.

I understand loud noises make lefties uncomfortable and shit their pants, but FFS inject some urgency into what you say. Command some respect.

If you lot are so desperate to vote in a bumbling halfwit, you might as well give Dan Andrews the top job.

Surely Labor has someone with a bit of presence and energy about them?
 

random260

Club Legend
Apr 20, 2013
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It's a tough spot labor are in. Do they give him a shot now? Because after next year election I think chalmers will 100% win since it would be 13 years of LNP rule. But if they give him a shot and he losses then labour are ducked they blew there 100% sure win candidate for after the next federal election. There a strong chance scomo beats chalmers this federal election unlike next federal election.
 

Caesar

Ex-Huckleberry
Mar 3, 2005
28,037
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its a case of "who the fu** knows" for pretty much every election post covid, but libs in the box seat federally.

they should sweep victoria and the fed poll
I don’t see how the Liberals win Victoria under the current status quo. Obviously much can change over the next couple of years, but right now Andrews is still very popular and the opposition talent is fairly thin on the ground.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Aug 22, 2009
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I don’t see how the Liberals win Victoria under the current status quo. Obviously much can change over the next couple of years, but right now Andrews is still very popular and the opposition talent is fairly thin on the ground.

People normally get behind their leaders in a crisis unless it's a massive balls up - even Bolsonaro has a bump right now.

Issue is afterwards. Firstly the electorate will swing back, it's natural. Second I believe the libs will not run with O'Brien. Anyone else except Smith and Guy will be better for them
 

dusty1234!

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People normally get behind their leaders in a crisis unless it's a massive balls up - even Bolsonaro has a bump right now.

Issue is afterwards. Firstly the electorate will swing back, it's natural. Second I believe the libs will not run with O'Brien. Anyone else except Smith and Guy will be better for them
Is there anyone else lol?
 

Rotayjay

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2014
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Albanese needs to run a very, very clear and simple message and stick to it. Most voters are frightfully disengaged with politics and seem to have no clue what they are actually voting for.

Scott Morrison ran a very disciplined and memorable message in 2019: vote Labor and you will get higher taxes and a weaker economy. Higher taxes. Higher taxes.

Meanwhile Labor's message was confused and no one could remember any of theur policies. There were too many policies and some were too radical or vulnerable to scare campaigns.

I've heard some rumours that Anthony Albanese is going to get booted as opposition leader before the next election. If they do that, they better not put in Jim Chalmers. The guy is just as wooden as Bill Shorten.
 

Rotayjay

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Aug 28, 2014
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I don’t see how the Liberals win Victoria under the current status quo. Obviously much can change over the next couple of years, but right now Andrews is still very popular and the opposition talent is fairly thin on the ground.
Labor will sh*t it in at the next Victorian election.
 

hamohawk1

Premiership Player
Feb 18, 2011
4,115
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Labor need to go in with a very simple policy platform. Nothing thats going to adversely change the middle/ upper class.

Then once they're into power build upon their platform and go.

Australians don't like change, particularly if it involves any cost/ loss of revenue. Just because climate change is a massive issue and Australians want action, doesnt mean they will vote for a platform that imposes cost on them.
 

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