How does Labor win the next federal election/elections to come?

[Seeds]

Wind coming in at $0.15 per kwh, so backing technologies with high energy prices is always a winner

Alternatively Labor could back Australian technologies at $0.07 per kwh



this would fast track our hydrogen production (a $200b industry per annum globally) saving a iron ore industry. Another Australian invention here would make this happen, which is currently going to the UK if not saved.

Clean Hydrogen is decades away from being competitive. And if its not clean then its pointless to use. May as well just stick with gas and petrol.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I've heard some rumours that Anthony Albanese is going to get booted as opposition leader before the next election. If they do that, they better not put in Jim Chalmers. The guy is just as wooden as Bill Shorten.

I'll concede Chalmers isn't the most engaging speaker, but at least he doesn't look unnatural when smiling like Shorten did. Youth alone lends him some appeal to his image, and having a Queenslander for a leader is gold for Labor right now, for the reasons I outlined above.

 

[Power Raid]

Clean Hydrogen is decades away from being competitive. And if its not clean then its pointless to use. May as well just stick with gas and petrol.

if you covered the entire land mass of europe with solar panels and then overlay that with wind turbines (ignoring shadow), europe wouldn't have enough energy to supply its own hydrogen needs.

there is only one option which fortunately has just been declared as clean by the EU

 

[Seeds]

To return to power, Labor need to understand where exactly the last election was lost (Queensland, Tasmania) and the types of electorates they were lost in (mostly suburban, a few regional). In particular, several seats on the fringes of Brisbane (Dickson, Longman, Petrie, Forde, Bonner) were marginal in 2016 for one side or the other, and they all went LNP. The ones that were already LNP all had sizeable swings further to the LNP. Also, the very similar electorate of Blair was only retained by a slim margin of 1%. Labor need to appeal to these voters to win government. As Antony Green says,


So Labor need to know exactly what these fringe suburban voters value and give them more of that. To understand what those values are, it's worth reading this article about why Queensland voted so solidly for the LNP in 2019. Kevin Rudd explains using Maslow's hierarchy of needs what voters tend to value in federal elections: money and safety. Pretty much all of these areas except Bonner are socio-economically low compared to the rest of South East Queensland, so the cost of living is going to be a big issue. Labor can win on this front if they promise more welfare and don't announce any new taxes.

On safety, Labor are always going to find it hard to compete with the LNP on asylum seekers, but it isn't the pressing issue it once was, and safety has other facets to it. Voters generally feel safer with people they see as similar to them, and most of the electorates I mentioned are name-dropped in the article as being particularly religious areas. So it's no surprise they embraced Scummo and his very public displays of religious practices.

Another thing Rudd mentions is regionalism - Queenslanders will vote for locals. Take Rudd himself, despite being a glasses-wearing Mandarin-speaking pointy-headed inner-city intellectual, he helped Labor gain Blair, Bonner, Forde, Longman and Petrie, as well as four regional electorates. Labor haven't come close to that level of success in Queensland since.

For all those reasons, they badly need to chuck Albo and try out Jim Chalmers in the top job. Albo came to power too late and just looks like a low-energy irrelevant relic of the 2007-2013 period now. As much as it shouldn't matter who the leader is, the electorate cares, which is why Shorten lost the 2019 election, he had all the charisma of a wet lettuce.

Chalmers would be particularly valuable as a leader because he is from the Brisbane fringe and so he should know their issues of greatest concern back to front. He should instantly be able to counter Scummo's relatability since he's a local, something Shorten, Albo and Plibersek can't do because they're all inner-city politicians from Sydney and Melbourne. He won't be able to out-religion Scummo, but he doesn't need to, his lukewarm Catholicism should be enough to be relatable. Plus he has the advantage of being young and from a new generation, being a full ten years younger than Shorten and Scummo, and fifteen years younger than Albo. Worked for Rudd.

Brisbane is not north queensland. Brisbanites

if you covered the entire land mass of europe with solar panels and then overlay that with wind turbines (ignoring shadow), europe wouldn't have enough energy to supply its own hydrogen needs.

there is only one option which fortunately has just been declared as clean by the EU

That's not true. You cover your roof with solar panels and that supplies enough power for your household.

It's a question of cost and not space.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Brisbane is not north queensland.

No s**t it isn't. I can go into a full analysis of North Queensland if you want, but I chose to concentrate on Brisbane fringe suburbs because they're more marginal.

 

[Power Raid]

Brisbane is not north queensland. Brisbanites
That's not true. You cover your roof with solar panels and that supplies enough power for your household.

It's a question of cost and not space.

Did you read my post?

You’re talking pears when I’m talking apples

 

[Seeds]

Did you read my post?

You’re talking pears when I’m talking apples

How? Hydrogen needs will only be about 20 percent of energy demand. Hydrogen electrolysis is only about 40 percent less efficient then straight use of electricity. Your post implied it was over 10 thousand times less efficient.

 

[magpies2013]

ALP no chance next election against Scumo with the Murdoch media so far up his arse. If Jim Chalmers is leader then he is there only chance

 

[Gigantic]

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Cowardice. Labor should have had the guts to take this policy back and sell it properly this time, instead they've folded like a cheap suit.

 

[random260]

This is a start. Roll back your climate policy and we are about 40% there. Until labour roll back there climate policy its all threater

 

[Bleeeeeeeeep]

This is a start. Roll back your climate policy and we are about 40% there. Until labour roll back there climate policy its all threater

Why?
The majority of Australians support action on climate change, the only ones opposing any real action on climate change are the dangerous extremist rightwing neolibs and their MSM mates.

 

[Saint]

Forget big ideas or promises. When in opposition, do nothing but attack. This whole thing about offering an alternative is overblown in elections, it's just the media wanting something to attack/report on.

Point out the problems of the Government and say you'll fix it. Don't have to detail how, if anything just say you'll roll back something the previous Govt did.

Remember that the conservative print media will attack anything and everything you do, so give them nothing, don't do anything. Get on live radio and TV spots and attack.

Announcing a policy months ahead of the election to allow people like Tim Wilson to go on a "scare the geriatrics while signing them up to my uncle's fund management" tour of the country is a terrible idea, even if the policy is good.

Only announce policies in the last 2/3 weeks when you've got the advertising budget to promote them and don't give the media enough time to boil them down to a few scare-points.

ScoMo is going to the next election as a GOvernment with no policies, so not sure why the opposition needs any policies.

 

[Power Raid]

Forget big ideas or promises. When in opposition, do nothing but attack. This whole thing about offering an alternative is overblown in elections, it's just the media wanting something to attack/report on.

Point out the problems of the Government and say you'll fix it. Don't have to detail how, if anything just say you'll roll back something the previous Govt did.

Remember that the conservative print media will attack anything and everything you do, so give them nothing, don't do anything. Get on live radio and TV spots and attack.

Announcing a policy months ahead of the election to allow people like Tim Wilson to go on a "scare the geriatrics while signing them up to my uncle's fund management" tour of the country is a terrible idea, even if the policy is good.

Only announce policies in the last 2/3 weeks when you've got the advertising budget to promote them and don't give the media enough time to boil them down to a few scare-points.

ScoMo is going to the next election as a GOvernment with no policies, so not sure why the opposition needs any policies.

with $1.7 trillion dollars of debt, it will be hard to have any positive policies. So you're probably right.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Im 50/50 on this

Absolutely needs to happen, However it's suicide doing it

 

[Caesar]

Necessary move. Will put a whole lot of Coalition votes from last time around back in the ‘undecided’ column.

 

[QuietB]

Necessary move. Will put a whole lot of Coalition votes from last time around back in the ‘undecided’ column.

Correct. Policy is overrated. They need to attack Morrison, attack the LNP, and attack hard from now until the election.

Worry about policy later.

Trump, Morrison and Boris have proven that is the formula.

 

[Caesar]

Correct. Policy is overrated. They need to attack Morrison, attack the LNP, and attack hard from now until the election.

Worry about policy later.

Trump, Morrison and Boris have proven that is the formula.

This is such a hackneyed point of view, and it's just not supported by the facts. Labor took a very broad and extensive policy platform to the last election, and there were only two elements that seriously hurt them - franking credits, and Adani.

By any measure 95% of their platform was very popular, and they could have easily carried it into government (although perhaps a more charismatic leader would also have helped).

I really don't see the point in throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[QuietB]

This is such a hackneyed point of view, and it's just not supported by the facts. Labor took a very broad and extensive policy platform to the last election, and there were only two elements that seriously hurt them - franking credits, and Adani.

By any measure 95% of their platform was very popular, and they could have easily carried it into government (although perhaps a more charismatic leader would also have helped).

I really don't see the point in throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Except the policy platform was so large Palmer and Morrison were easily able to tack their own "scares" onto that platform.

"Death tax" was added, "electric cars" was added, Morrison expanded this to "steal you utes" and "steal your weekends".

None of these things were real. But because Labor had presented such a large platform the electorate could not be bother trawling back though that platform to check. Instead they settled for no change.

If I were in charge Labor would campaign on corruption. Ram home that it is out of control and that the only answer is a proper ICAC. And then attack Morrison and the LNP relentlessly on their failures. Everyone knows what Labor stands for outside that - there is no reason to even talk about it.

If you can convince the Australian electorate that they are getting ripped off - and they already know they are, then they will get pissed off.

And then when you get into power - exactly like the LNP - do whatever the hell you want.

 

[Caesar]

Except the policy platform was so large Palmer and Morrison were easily able to tack their own "scares" onto that platform.

"Death tax" was added, "electric cars" was added, Morrison expanded this to "steal you utes" and "steal your weekends".

Sure - but they got no traction.

At the end of the day the only things that really hurt them were franking credits and Adani (and maybe Bill Shorten, but he's not a policy).

 

[Rob R]

Sure - but they got no traction.

At the end of the day the only things that really hurt them were franking credits and Adani (and maybe Bill Shorten, but he's not a policy).

Not costing their climate policies was a dumb move as well (technically understandable given they were planning to use international credits but played right into a can't manage the economy attack)

Not to mention growing our refugee intake (the supporters of which would already vote left) was stupid when being perceived as increasing taxes although I doubt that cost many votes but certainly wouldn't have won any.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[QuietB]

Sure - but they got no traction.

At the end of the day the only things that really hurt them were franking credits and Adani (and maybe Bill Shorten, but he's not a policy).

Is Adani even happening?

The ALP could have some fun saying Morrison promised Adani and it is not even happening - and then add that he pivoted away from coal to gas and then Queenslanders (who are quite happy with their Labor state government) start coming back.

 

[QuietB]

Not costing their climate policies was a dumb move as well (technically understandable given they were planning to use international credits but played right into a can't manage the economy attack)

Not to mention growing our refugee intake (the supporters of which would already vote left) was stupid when being perceived as increasing taxes although I doubt that cost many votes but certainly wouldn't have won any.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I don't think you can cost climate policies. It creates all sorts of opportunities and creates some losses. The modelling would be insanely complex and it might even show there is no cost which no one on the Conservative side would accept.

In any case, labor need to prosecute the case that not having a climate policy is dumber.

 

[Caesar]

Anyone who professes to be able to accurately cost climate policy should be viewed with suspicion. Most of the financial viability arguments are dependent on speculative assumptions about emergent technology (e.g. storage and firming for renewables) which are impossible to accurately predict.

These days the imperative to move towards more climate-responsible policies is more about getting ahead of the global curve - which should be a compelling enough argument. I'm the last person in favour of running screaming away from fossil fuels, but anyone should be able to see the direction that the wind is blowing. We need to be preparing for the future.

 

[Borisdog]

Is Adani even happening?

The ALP could have some fun saying Morrison promised Adani and it is not even happening - and then add that he pivoted away from coal to gas and then Queenslanders (who are quite happy with their Labor state government) start coming back.

Believe it or not, stuff happens outside of Victoria.

Even a cursory search of the internet will give you the information that "Adani" is very much happening.

The project ( Bravus Mining now - renamed ) is well underway and is providing a massive monetary, employment and revenue boost to the local areas and to QLD and Federal coffers.

So the ALP couldn't have any "fun" there.

Removing their franking credit policy disaster will help them, but anyone who thought that policy only affected retirees had rocks in their head. It affected every single Australian with a Superannuation account.