How does Labor win the next federal election/elections to come?

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DaRick

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'not Adani', blaming franking credits, aka delusional.

That's not delusional in the least.

As Bill Clinton said, "it's the economy, stupid."

Franking credits is the sort of thing that hits people in their hip pocket, and that scares people off. Especially working families who need every cent they can get to support their kids, and there are plenty of those in Brisbane.

Plus Adani by itself was pretty much irrelevant south of Rockhampton (Capricornia), and only really affected a few seats (Capricornia/Dawson/Herbert). Even coal mining is not a huge factor south of Flynn.

You're also forgetting that there were winnable seats in WA/TAS/NSW/VIC/SA. Coal mining was not a big factor in those states as a whole, but franking credits definitely would have been. There are plenty of working families in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney.
 

Kwality

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That's not delusional in the least.

As Bill Clinton said, "it's the economy, stupid."

Franking credits is the sort of thing that hits people in their hip pocket, and that scares people off. Especially working families who need every cent they can get to support their kids, and there are plenty of those in Brisbane.

Plus Adani by itself was pretty much irrelevant south of Rockhampton (Capricornia), and only really affected a few seats (Capricornia/Dawson/Herbert). Even coal mining is not a huge factor south of Flynn.

You're also forgetting that there were winnable seats in WA/TAS/NSW/VIC/SA. Coal mining was not a big factor in those states as a whole, but franking credits definitely would have been. There are plenty of working families in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney.

'Labor was also too weak on either side of the Adani-climate change equation. In its attempts to appease everyone, it failed to appeal to anyone.'



Indeed I accept the loss of the seats in NQ cost the ALP government. The Bob Brown caravan did the ALP no favours.

Equally the very poor drafting of the franking credits policy was an own goal. I still think it was a fair tax if it only 'taxed the rich'. One pensioner illustrates the level of thought that went into drafting the policy. No room for a devils advocate role suggests overconfidence. Hopefully the enthusiasts are not involved in drawing up policy for 2022.
 

DaRick

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'Labor was also too weak on either side of the Adani-climate change equation. In its attempts to appease everyone, it failed to appeal to anyone.'



Indeed I accept the loss of the seats in NQ cost the ALP government. The Bob Brown caravan did the ALP no favours.

Equally the very poor drafting of the franking credits policy was an own goal. I still think it was a fair tax if it only 'taxed the rich'. One pensioner illustrates the level of thought that went into drafting the policy. No room for a devils advocate role suggests overconfidence. Hopefully the enthusiasts are not involved in drawing up policy for 2022.

OK, this post I find little fault with.

Another factor RE the Adani seats was the QLD ALP. Annastacia was widely disliked outside of Brisbane, and was seen to be dithering on approving Adani. Meanwhile, both the QLD and Federal LNP were openly supportive of Adani.

This is part of the reason why John Howard never liked state governments from the same party - if they take one position, and you take another, it undermines your own position and makes the party look more divided regarding the issue, and I think that's what happened RE Adani.

Without Bob Brown's idiocy, I think the LNP win those seats with improved margins anyway, but they remain marginal or close to - they don't become safe seats.
 

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Kwality

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Pretty hard to negative gear now with interest rates at 2% and rents probably averaging 3%. Vast majority of properties are now positively geared. Before Covid maybe but still not giving much of a tax benefit. This issue hasnt really been a factor since the GFC when interest rates were 8% and rents 4% then it was giving a decent amount of benefit.

Do you believe the critics will understand what you are saying ?
 

kranky al

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she had three things in her favour though:

1) support from the Federal campaign (scomo was a regular)

2) MASSIVE external money coming in

3) the AEC was caught behind the 8 ball on both the dodgy wechat/weibo marketing, and the fake chinese AEC signs on election day

on these three for 2022:

1) scomo will be playing D in kooyong, higgins, and Goldy this election (as we have already seen from his recent trip). Chisholm will struggle to get the same media attention without the pm in photo ops

2) its believed much of the money can from mainland china. with the libs being the party of the war on china, good luck getting this money from the mainland again

3) the AEC IMO will not be embarrassed twice, and her social media and match day chinese language comms will be rigorously monitored


K, remember 20% of Chisholm is of chinese ancestry, Duttons war on China is going to hurt her (most of the 20% are recent migrants, and have strong financial links in both countries - they are not CCP refugees as some think they are)
Mate i have 100% invested in australia but i still think my govt are a pack of utter baseball bunts for spying on east timor.

Just like im sure chinese australians can probably make their own minds up as to whether its out govt being flogs, the chinese government being flogs or both.
 

kranky al

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Pretty hard to negative gear now with interest rates at 2% and rents probably averaging 3%. Vast majority of properties are now positively geared. Before Covid maybe but still not giving much of a tax benefit. This issue hasnt really been a factor since the GFC when interest rates were 8% and rents 4% then it was giving a decent amount of benefit.
Time to upgrade / paint etc
 

DaRick

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Mate i have 100% invested in australia but i still think my govt are a pack of utter baseball bunts for spying on east timor.

Just like im sure chinese australians can probably make their own minds up as to whether its out govt being flogs, the chinese government being flogs or both.

On this topic, while I obviously don't live in Chisholm, one of my best friends was from Nanjing, and he made it very clear to me that Chinese-Australians as a whole still have a great amount of residual loyalty towards the PRC.

I doubt that ScoMo antagonising them openly will do him any favours there.
 

ChampRevesby

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On this topic, while I obviously don't live in Chisholm, one of my best friends was from Nanjing, and he made it very clear to me that Chinese-Australians as a whole still have a great amount of residual loyalty towards the PRC.

I doubt that ScoMo antagonising them openly will do him any favours there.
There are plenty of very outspoken anti-CCP Chinese Australians. I find those that are most opposed aren't from the mainland.
 

DaRick

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There are plenty of very outspoken anti-CCP Chinese Australians. I find those that are most opposed aren't from the mainland.

Well, if they're from the ROC or a Special Administrative Region like Hong Kong, that's not a huge surprise.

That said, by PRC I really meant 'China', not the CCP in and of themselves.

One can be a patriot and dislike their ruling regime, and ScoMo hasn't really drawn a distinction between the two in his attacks.
 

ChampRevesby

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Well, if they're from the ROC or a Special Administrative Region like Hong Kong, that's not a huge surprise.

That said, by PRC I really meant 'China', not the CCP in and of themselves.

One can be a patriot and dislike their ruling regime, and ScoMo hasn't really drawn a distinction between the two in his attacks.
Yes typically, I find they dislike the CCP because they are patriotic.
 

Rotayjay

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Psoted this in another thread but it's relevant here as well.

I'm pretty pessimistic about the intelligence of the average voter, especially after the 2019 election.

Anecdotally, my opinion is that there was once a time when more than half the workforce were union members, and therefore highly likely to vote Labor as their union would encourage that. Nowadays less than a fifth of employees are union members. I don't think they realise how much worse off an ordinary worker is now, relatively speaking.

I don't mean living standards compared to 1975. I mean how much more casualised and insecure work is, how rife wage theft is, how CEO pay is now so many times more than worker pay. The portion of revenue that goes to labour as opposed to shareholders is collapsing.

This is sounding really Marxist but I think the workers of Australia have been downtrodden and do not realise how badly they are downtrodden. They have given up on unions and seem to think the Liberals are just as good, if not better for workers because 'yeah they're giving a tax cut to people who work hard like me' when in fact voting Labor would likely result in a better life.

It's a kind of Stockholm syndrome. Much of the workforce has never seen significant union numbers, has NEVER had bargaining power against employers and don't realise how significant that is, and has seen six years of Labor government in the last twenty-six.

Labor doesn't need to quadruple union membership to win elections, but they do need to get in by hammering issues like RATs and an ICAC, and materially improving conditions for workers so they notice.
 

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Ned_Flanders

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Mate i have 100% invested in australia but i still think my govt are a pack of utter baseball bunts for spying on east timor.

Just like im sure chinese australians can probably make their own minds up as to whether its out govt being flogs, the chinese government being flogs or both.

Thats not the issue here.

The question is will the river of Chinese money continue to flow to Liu.

The money illegally sent to her from state owned enterprises won't, because we are at war with China.

The money from developers won't, because property development in Australia is slowing down

Its very little about what locals think.
 

kranky al

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Thats not the issue here.

The question is will the river of Chinese money continue to flow to Liu.

The money illegally sent to her from state owned enterprises won't, because we are at war with China.

The money from developers won't, because property development in Australia is slowing down

Its very little about what locals think.
Thats fine i agree there - i was disagreeing on the concept of the chinese “voting as a bloc” per se
 

Ned_Flanders

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Thats fine i agree there - i was disagreeing on the concept of the chinese “voting as a bloc” per se

Two things on that

Firstly they have tended to vote as a block in Chisholm not because of what they are, but who. Property prices mean they are mostly well off, and given most as migrants they don't give two ducks about the social issues here. They normally vote like any wealthy migrant - in the interests of their wallet.

The second is we are at war with China. Most of these wealthy migrants still have homes and businesses in China, so they are not economic refugees. The war is bad for them financially. Also it's bad for them personally. Covid has seen Chinese hate ramp up here, and you're naive if you think people will vote to support someone promoting their vilification.

All of this is due to the war. Nothing else.
 

Kwality

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Well, if they're from the ROC or a Special Administrative Region like Hong Kong, that's not a huge surprise.

That said, by PRC I really meant 'China', not the CCP in and of themselves.

One can be a patriot and dislike their ruling regime, and ScoMo hasn't really drawn a distinction between the two in his attacks.

His original comments that kicked this off were widely supported - I remember because I thought it was a ridiculous thing to say in public.
Plenty of people have moved ground on this for political convenience.
 

DaRick

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His original comments that kicked this off were widely supported - I remember because I thought it was a ridiculous thing to say in public.
Plenty of people have moved ground on this for political convenience.

Don't get me wrong - I've always maintained that China are not a force for good. They are a force for whatever benefits China.

However, Chinese-Australians as a whole still feel residual loyalty to the country, if not to the regime.
 

Kwality

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Don't get me wrong - I've always maintained that China are not a force for good. They are a force for whatever benefits China.

However, Chinese-Australians as a whole still feel residual loyalty to the country, if not to the regime.

Spot on. You can love your country without signing up to the politics of the ruling class.
 

Blue Arrow

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Psoted this in another thread but it's relevant here as well.

I'm pretty pessimistic about the intelligence of the average voter, especially after the 2019 election.

Anecdotally, my opinion is that there was once a time when more than half the workforce were union members, and therefore highly likely to vote Labor as their union would encourage that. Nowadays less than a fifth of employees are union members. I don't think they realise how much worse off an ordinary worker is now, relatively speaking.

I don't mean living standards compared to 1975. I mean how much more casualised and insecure work is, how rife wage theft is, how CEO pay is now so many times more than worker pay. The portion of revenue that goes to labour as opposed to shareholders is collapsing.

This is sounding really Marxist but I think the workers of Australia have been downtrodden and do not realise how badly they are downtrodden. They have given up on unions and seem to think the Liberals are just as good, if not better for workers because 'yeah they're giving a tax cut to people who work hard like me' when in fact voting Labor would likely result in a better life.

It's a kind of Stockholm syndrome. Much of the workforce has never seen significant union numbers, has NEVER had bargaining power against employers and don't realise how significant that is, and has seen six years of Labor government in the last twenty-six.

Labor doesn't need to quadruple union membership to win elections, but they do need to get in by hammering issues like RATs and an ICAC, and materially improving conditions for workers so they notice.


stalin heart.jpg
 

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