How does Labor win the next federal election/elections to come?

[Borisdog]

............

last time they overestimated the intellect of the electorate and paid a heavy price. they would do well not to make the same mistake twice.

You didn't mean "under-estimated" did you?

 

[checkraiseulite]

You didn't mean "under-estimated" did you?

no - definitely not

 

[Borisdog]

no - definitely not

Yeeeeeaaah.

I can't help wondering if ALP supporters "thinking" that those who didn't vote for the ALP were dumber than they thought might not be cause for the old gambling saying:

If you can't work out who the sucker in the room is - It's probably you!!!

I can't believe for too long that Party strategists, of either persuasion, would hold that low an opinion of any "demographic" of the electorate. Like most sweeping generalisations ( irony alert ) - it's gunna end badly.

 

[checkraiseulite]

Yeeeeeaaah.

I can't help wondering if ALP supporters "thinking" that those who didn't vote for the ALP were dumber than they thought might not be cause for the old gambling saying:

If you can't work out who the sucker in the room is - It's probably you!!!

I can't believe for too long that Party strategists, of either persuasion, would hold that low an opinion of any "demographic" of the electorate. Like most sweeping generalisations ( irony alert ) - it's gunna end badly.

scomo played the electorate perfectly last election.

... and i’m not an ALP or greens voter.

 

[Borisdog]

scomo played the electorate perfectly last election.

... and i’m not an ALP or greens voter.

He didn't need to up here.

The ALP basically murdered themselves. By trying to feed policies to electorates that just wanted to get on with their lives and have a job, not have an "ideology". It's not a large leap of faith to say that was a factor elsewhere also.

And I'm of the same "persuasion" as you vote wise.

Less than 4 months after a QLD state election was decided you wouldn't believe the screaming in the Letters to the Editor in the Townsville Bulletin newspaper regarding the Youth Crime up here, and the subsequent revolving door of the same miscreants out on bail committing the same offenses. EVERY SINGLE LETTER proclaims they won't vote this lot in next time. I can't help but giggle - the same issues existed before the election. Where were you lot then, thinks I?

All 3 electorates in Townsville were retained by the ALP.

Good campaigns on Law and Order grounds ( Which "rhetoric wise" should be LNP bread and butter ) with even half decent policy would likely have won 2 out of the 3 seats. The LNP murdered themselves up here in the State election.

The massive amount of home invasions/stolen cars/Police chases is DAILY news here in/on every Radio/TV station. Has been for years. Many of the more "fed up" people are resorting to vigilantism

You would've though it was an electoral gift.

Nuh - wasn't.

I'm buggered if I know what the answers are, but surely something like "Here's what isn't working and here's what we'll do about it" can't be that far off the mark.

I really suspect though that your average punter is just that cynical about it all that we're over-analysing it. It's little more than a lucky dip in many ( most? ) electorates. There are very few Pollies in this country who you can actually rely upon to hold a solid view, stick to it and articulate it.

 

[NSWCROW]

3 word slogans

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Less than 4 months after a QLD state election was decided you wouldn't believe the screaming in the Letters to the Editor in the Townsville Bulletin newspaper regarding the Youth Crime up here, and the subsequent revolving door of the same miscreants out on bail committing the same offenses. EVERY SINGLE LETTER proclaims they won't vote this lot in next time. I can't help but giggle - the same issues existed before the election. Where were you lot then, thinks I?

You can find a lot of noisy people in newspaper comments sections, but they don't necessarily represent most of the community, nor are they necessarily in touch with objective reality. Proper analyses of crime statistics prior to the election showed the supposed crime wave in Townsville was greatly overblown and no more of a problem than it is in most cities, but the media and the LNP ran with a sensationalist narrative for their own purposes.

 

[eddiesmith]

He didn't need to up here.

The ALP basically murdered themselves. By trying to feed policies to electorates that just wanted to get on with their lives and have a job, not have an "ideology". It's not a large leap of faith to say that was a factor elsewhere also.

And I'm of the same "persuasion" as you vote wise.

Less than 4 months after a QLD state election was decided you wouldn't believe the screaming in the Letters to the Editor in the Townsville Bulletin newspaper regarding the Youth Crime up here, and the subsequent revolving door of the same miscreants out on bail committing the same offenses. EVERY SINGLE LETTER proclaims they won't vote this lot in next time. I can't help but giggle - the same issues existed before the election. Where were you lot then, thinks I?

All 3 electorates in Townsville were retained by the ALP.

Good campaigns on Law and Order grounds ( Which "rhetoric wise" should be LNP bread and butter ) with even half decent policy would likely have won 2 out of the 3 seats. The LNP murdered themselves up here in the State election.

The massive amount of home invasions/stolen cars/Police chases is DAILY news here in/on every Radio/TV station. Has been for years. Many of the more "fed up" people are resorting to vigilantism

You would've though it was an electoral gift.

Nuh - wasn't.

I'm buggered if I know what the answers are, but surely something like "Here's what isn't working and here's what we'll do about it" can't be that far off the mark.

I really suspect though that your average punter is just that cynical about it all that we're over-analysing it. It's little more than a lucky dip in many ( most? ) electorates. There are very few Pollies in this country who you can actually rely upon to hold a solid view, stick to it and articulate it.

LNP tried the law and order route in Victoria and lost seats!

Problem was the areas which had problems are rusted on Labor areas, same general area Covid was running wild too...

But the federal redistribution is set to give them an extra seat in that area as well.

 

[Borisdog]

You can find a lot of noisy people in newspaper comments sections, but they don't necessarily represent most of the community, nor are they necessarily in touch with objective reality. Proper analyses of crime statistics prior to the election showed the supposed crime wave in Townsville was greatly overblown and no more of a problem than it is in most cities, but the media and the LNP ran with a sensationalist narrative for their own purposes.

LNP ran with pretty much nothing concrete relating to the Youth crime issue in Townsville.

Can you point me to the Proper analyses of the crime stats in Townsville - I'd love to have a read for myself to see if it actually tallies with what my eyes see. I do 50 hours a week on the roads here - night and day.

Yes, there are lots of noisy people in Newspaper columns. Doesn't make them wrong, nor unrepresentative, nor out of touch. Newspapers and sensationalist narrative - well that's hand in glove. How long would sensationalist narrative last without at least some facts backing the narrative? Interesting to note that the local paper was one of the VERY VERY few to survive the recent mass closures of regional papers in QLD.

I'm pretty sure you and I have had discussions on "outsiders" telling "insiders" that they're wrong before . Lies, damned lies and statistics - an old saying that one.

The problem exists, is large, is very visible and is also far from uncommon in Cairns also.

How's the hue and cry in Brisbane about the Pregnant Lady and her partner getting killed recently by a stolen vehicle? Townsville has had 4 deaths lately. 3 own goals and 1 caused by a vigilante chasing a stolen car. Bearing in mind the population of TSV vs BNE then that's a bit of an over-representation. And it won't go away while these geniuses ( Perpetrators AND Vigilantes ) remain at large.

Wanna take a stab at how many of the local ALP members turned up at a public meeting honouring the life of the young lady killed by the muppet chasing the stolen car?

But we're way off topic here and for that I apologise.

My point - good workable policy addressing local issues SHOULD be a vote winner. It should be how ANY side wins a seat. The over-reaching ( Broader/National ) policy should be coming from the Leaders of the parties.

 

[Borisdog]

LNP tried the law and order route in Victoria and lost seats!

Problem was the areas which had problems are rusted on Labor areas, same general area Covid was running wild too...

But the federal redistribution is set to give them an extra seat in that area as well.

Yep, and Townsville has the problem in that it's only 3 seats out of 93 in state parliament and 2 out of 227 federally. It simply doesn't "tally" with areas that don't have the same issue, so it needs to be campaigned as a local issue by the local candidates. I don't know anything about the "Law and Order" issues in Vic other than the "We've got an African gang problem" that gets a run nationally every so often.

Do you get a daily flogging on every outlet about it? Cos we do about break-ins/stolen cars etc. It's getting way worse here and the break-ins are now becoming violent - which they rarely were a couple of years ago

I maintain that local issues campaigned well will win seats for any side. The issues up here have finally drawn comment from the Premier - she's basically been drawn from the "shadows" to support her local members. I'm guessing she isn't really happy with her local members that she's had to stick her head up to quell "The sensationalist narrative and the noisy people" ( To paraphrase Johnny Bananas ). It's been, in the past month in Townsville, a really great example of democracy at work. The people and the media are yelling and the pollies have noticed.

Now let's see if it translates into policy/law changes. I doubt the pressure will let up.

You eat an elephant one bite at a time.

 

[checkraiseulite]

He didn't need to up here.

The ALP basically murdered themselves. By trying to feed policies to electorates that just wanted to get on with their lives and have a job, not have an "ideology". It's not a large leap of faith to say that was a factor elsewhere also.

thanks for proving my point

 

[Borisdog]

thanks for proving my point

You're welcome.

 

[Heisenberg_]

they need a leader people respect - albo just personifies a battler who would get absolutely steamrolled. the undecideds will really struggle to get behind him.

then they need to invest in some great kevin ‘07 type marketing and get the search/social media overlords on board. morrison wants them to pay media for news - they should agree to can this - and it will help them against the scomo friendly media. get some internationals to run hit pieces on scomo - there is so much to work with.

last time they overestimated the intellect of the electorate and paid a heavy price. they would do well not to make the same mistake twice.

I agree with this, which is even more frustrating that the fake persona Morrison has created to make himself look like the everyday man is actually the person Albanese is and the casual observer will just think they’re trying to copy the happy clapping *******

 

[Donakebab]

Keep a clean house, push IR/federal ICAC as major policy pieces and relentlessly attack on the constant LNP failings (rape cover ups, misogyny, corruption, pork barrelling, etc).

 

[Donakebab]

I agree with this, which is even more frustrating that the fake persona Morrison has created to make himself look like the everyday man is actually the person Albanese is and the casual observer will just think they’re trying to copy the happy clapping *******

Albo hosted Rage with a killer setlist, Scomo jams to Hillsong with paedos.

How the * are they not pumping these angles properly.

 

[checkraiseulite]

Albo hosted Rage with a killer setlist, Scomo jams to Hillsong with paedos.

How the fu** are they not pumping these angles properly.

people watching rage are already voting alp or green

to win this election they need someone like rudd swinging voters can respect and that understands small business

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Can you point me to the Proper analyses of the crime stats in Townsville - I'd love to have a read for myself to see if it actually tallies with what my eyes see. I do 50 hours a week on the roads here - night and day.

What I said was mostly literally correct, but I'll put my hand up and say I've also made an error. This is because I didn't appreciate the specific focus the letters had on youth crime, which has increased, but only amongst a certain number of repeat offenders.

What is youth crime, and is it on the rise in Queensland?

While COVID-19 has stolen a lot of the election limelight, fears of marauding young gangs are also at the top of the agenda. But is it warranted?

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

In this link it shows that the crime rate in Townsville is lower than in inner Brisbane or outback Queensland. It has grown by 9.5% from 2010-19, but this is a smaller increase than for areas like Brisbane, Moreton Bay, Wide Bay, Ipswich, Toowoomba and Mackay, some of which had increases of 20% in that time. This is what I meant by crime in Townsville not having been more of a problem than in most other cities (in Queensland, I meant), although they are over-represented in robberies.

It also does say the total number of youth crimes declined slightly but unique offenders declined more strongly, meaning repeat offenders are committing more crimes.



As you can see, if you go by crime overall, there's been a small increase since 2015, but it's not a massive out-of-control spree. Looking at individual crimes, robbery has indeed spiked, especially in 2019, but this is contrasted with the decrease in unlawful entry and non-arson property crimes over the longer term.





Now on youth crime specifically, yes it is a lot higher than the rest of the state for property crimes and assaults. But apparently youth crime has decreased 7% year on year, and the problem is largely confined to 30 offenders who commit half of all youth crimes in Townsville.

Queensland Election: Youth crime and race get politicised in Townsville

In Townsville, there seem to be combined efforts on different fronts to make an election issue out of juvenile crime involving young Aborigines.

independentaustralia.net

It should be noted the experts probably have a good solution already, according to regional police chiefs and criminology researchers. Cautions and diversionary programs for the low to moderate offenders, stronger programs like On Country for the repeat offenders. In each case, giving them some alternative to a life of crime, with skills training and positive role models so they have a chance of breaking the cycle of poverty and crime. Low to moderate offenders have actually decreased over the past decade, although the number of chronic offenders has grown, showing cautions probably only work for the low-level offenders. On Country pilot programs only began last year, we'll see how well they work. But it sounds as though being tough on crime, just sending kids to jail and vigilantism aren't a real solution.

A bad reputation for crime, but this city is not about to give up on its youth

Community leaders, criminologists and police agree more investment on prevention programs and greater engagement with families will drive down youth crime rates in Townsville.

www.abc.net.au

Youth justice

We aim to provide a fair and balanced response to young people in contact with the youth justice system.

www.youthjustice.qld.gov.au

Yes, there are lots of noisy people in Newspaper columns. Doesn't make them wrong, nor unrepresentative, nor out of touch.

I didn't actually say they were, what I said is it can't just be assumed they are correct and representative, because sometimes they are and sometimes they're not. Moral panics do occur sometimes without being based on actual facts on the ground.

Newspapers and sensationalist narrative - well that's hand in glove. How long would sensationalist narrative last without at least some facts backing the narrative?

If the mainstream media at large is favourable to one particular strain of politics, which I would argue it is, it can persist for a long time. The purported Sudanese crime problem remains in many people's minds to this day, despite the facts showing that it at most only applies to a handful of young men in Melbourne, rather than all Sudanese nationwide. Similarly other myths persist, like the Liberal Party being great economic managers, when objective analyses performed by outsiders suggest otherwise.

I'm pretty sure you and I have had discussions on "outsiders" telling "insiders" that they're wrong before . Lies, damned lies and statistics - an old saying that one.

Objectivity is sometimes more important than forming impressions based on one person's experiences. The plural of anecdotes is data. I'm not saying you or anyone else is necessarily wrong, just that a holistic view based on data has to be taken and assessed with proper context if we're serious about identifying the true scale of problems. You're right that statistics are often used without context.

How's the hue and cry in Brisbane about the Pregnant Lady and her partner getting killed recently by a stolen vehicle?

I've seen one story in the media about it and precious little else, although I don't watch commercial news on TV.

And it won't go away while these geniuses ( Perpetrators AND Vigilantes ) remain at large.

I agree, something has to be done. Some solutions seem more promising than others, and I'll be very interested to see whether On Country programs prove successful or not.

Thanks for responding in good faith, by the way.

 

[Austoraisetheurn]

ALP need to drop any sense of woke ideology for a start.

They are a useless party the ALP. And I voted for them last time.

Addressing economic issues and advocating economic reform to include New Keynesian approaches and MMT. Dropping the fetish for budget surpluses.

It won't happen mind you. ALP will get hammered.

 

[Caesar]

Addressing economic issues and advocating economic reform to include New Keynesian approaches and MMT.

lol no

 

[Borisdog]

What I said was mostly literally correct, but I'll put my hand up and say I've also made an error. This is because I didn't appreciate the specific focus the letters had on youth crime, which has increased, but only amongst a certain number of repeat offenders.
................
It also does say the total number of youth crimes declined slightly but unique offenders declined more strongly, meaning repeat offenders are committing more crimes.
............
I agree, something has to be done. Some solutions seem more promising than others, and I'll be very interested to see whether On Country programs prove successful or not.

Thanks for responding in good faith, by the way.

The major problem is not "Youth Crime", and "holistically" I agree that "Youth Crime" is no worse statistically in TSV than BNE.

The issue is Juveniles breaking into houses, stealing cars and creating multiple dangerous situations around the city and suburbs.
It is a very SPECIFIC problem, that is showing escalating severity. We're now getting car-jacking occasionally, and beatings during B&E, whereas a year ago this didn't happen.

And the current laws do not enable the judiciary or police to break the cycle. Find me the Stats for the combination of B&E + Car theft in TSV vs BNE ( I've tried - I can't drill down far enough) But I do know that TSV has disproportionally higher rates of "Unlawful use of Motor Vehicle" than BNE ( From the same QPOL site as your stats I suspect)

The Police have repeatedly claimed it's a "core" of repeat offenders. Jeez they're busy, given that it's unusual to NOT have 1 car a day knocked off and sometimes many more. There was a recent case where one of them fronted the magistrate and proceeded to give the magistrate a lovely gob-full. These grubs have absolutely zero respect.

It shouldn't be that hard to get rid of a "core" with the right tools, should it? It's proving pretty tough though. And the community is resorting to their own
( Misguided and frankly stupid) ways of trying to "discourage" the poor misunderstood urchins committing these "alleged" crimes out of sheer frustration.

It really is a matter of time before a couple of these young campaigners walk into a baseball bat or a really angry large dog inside some-ones house.

I think I'll leave it there Johnny - I've done enough derailing of this thread.

A pleasure as always, BD

 

[QuietB]

Yeeeeeaaah.

I can't help wondering if ALP supporters "thinking" that those who didn't vote for the ALP were dumber than they thought might not be cause for the old gambling saying:

If you can't work out who the sucker in the room is - It's probably you!!!

I can't believe for too long that Party strategists, of either persuasion, would hold that low an opinion of any "demographic" of the electorate. Like most sweeping generalisations ( irony alert ) - it's gunna end badly.

The LNP hold those people in an even worse regard. They have just figured out a way to co-opt them on moral and ideological grounds.

 

[Gough]

Facebook removing news sharing should improve Labor's chances, the idiots can go back to not caring because it doesn't appear on their feed.

 

[Borisdog]

........ They have just figured out a way to co-opt them on moral and ideological grounds.

Isn't that what you're trying to do when you want a vote?

 

[QuietB]

Isn't that what you're trying to do when you want a vote?

It is what politics has degenerated too.

Personally I'd like to live in a society where the role of government is to govern for everyone without fear or favour and we can have mature discussions and debates about all issues in an environment with a fair and balanced media and an educated and politically engaged public.

But the reality is we have what Australia has become.

 

[Borisdog]

It is what politics has degenerated too.

Personally I'd like to live in a society where the role of government is to govern for everyone without fear or favour and we can have mature discussions and debates about all issues in an environment with a fair and balanced media and an educated and politically engaged public.

But the reality is we have what Australia has become.

Good luck with your search for such a society.

I'd be bloody amazed if you ever find it anywhere, worldwide, given how easy it is to be offended, shrieked down, shamed for your opinion, told what's "right" etc etc.

Let me know how you get on, I'll come too.

But for now, I'm pretty happy with my country and I can't think of anywhere else I'd rather live. Politics or not. I find I get more out of life when I live it the way I want to and not how someone reckons I should.