Society/Culture How does this virus crisis end? The world one year from now.

[Seeds]

Ive been to so many breifings on this in the past 2 weeks and whenever someone asks how this ends this is the response.



implement strong preventative measures. Wait 2 months. Crisis over. Wtf?


ok so a vaccine could save the day but its probably a year away. So the response is shut down economies and then wait 2 months for it to go away. How is it going away? Sure preventative measures reduce spread but they dont get rid of it and as soon as you get rid of your preventative measures the virus will come back again just as before leading to the preventative measures being implemented And we get stuck in a loop.

the world economy can not survive with these sorts of preventative measures for 4 months let alone 12 months. Corporate Debt levels were at record highs with the proportion of BBB rated debt or worse in Usa and europe also at new highs before the crisis even hit. banks are looking better than during the gfc but that only buys them some small amount time in the face of a corporate debt collapse. How does the tourism, transport and recreational sectors survive this. They are going to collapse and this was bring down the banks. energy sector debt is also going to be a big problem thanks to the saudis and russia. Centrals banks are almost out of ammunition (unlike during the gfc) so the only option is fiscal stimulus. Like mega fiscal Stimulus thats bigger then ever seen before. This is very unlikely but even if it does happen it will only lead to government debt crisis's because many governments already have high debt.

i fear the world is about to undergo its biggest economic shock since world war 2. A lot of people will die due to both the virus and the economic destruction.

So how does this get prevented. Some argue herd immunity will kick in and that will largely stop the virus meaning we can get rid of preventative measures. Problem is with preventative measures we are probably 6 months to a year away from herd immunity kicking in. I like the Uks idea but even they seem resistant to actually following through with it.

the northern hemisphere will hit its summer soon and that should slow down the virus spread globally (albeit not in australia) but it wont stop it and it leads to further delays before herd immunity is achieved.

this isnt the thread to discuss the new virus numbers and events happening now in society. Its the thread to discuss where you think we will be in a years time. Do you see economic catastrophe being averted? If so how does this occur? How do you think the world will have changed in a year?

 

[M Malice]

 

[QuietB]

View attachment 840971

Your guys are no chance

 

[Seeds]

thats what i thought. There is no end to this with our current approach.


im starting to think it would be better to drop all preventative measures and just live with a 5 -7 percent 2020 death rate of baby boomers.

its far better then an economic armagedon that will kill young people And destroy the welfare of all the survivors.

 

[Admiral Byng]

The end will come when there is an effective vaccine, or effective treatment procedure; and enough of that in vaccine or those medications in production to meet demand. This may take a few months. Already there are a few positive reports coming through of progress in these areas, various trial vaccines, and a combination drug therapy of existing drugs.

I reckon by this time next year we will be over it and back to normal, as far as normal social life goes. The economy might be sluggish. Some countries not on board with the latest might still be in travel restrictions by the rest of the world.

 

[Seeds]

The end will come when there is an effective vaccine, or effective treatment procedure; and enough of that in vaccine or those medications in production to meet demand. This may take a few months. Already there are a few positive reports coming through of progress in these areas, various trial vaccines, and a combination drug therapy of existing drugs.

I reckon by this time next year we will be over it and back to normal, as far as normal social life goes. The economy might be sluggish. Some countries not on board with the latest might still be in travel restrictions by the rest of the world.

But surely a vaccine wont be available for a year given all the loop holes that have to be passed? And thats assuming we can find one. Its no guarantee.

in any case before then the world economy will be in its greatest recession since the great depression. Life is going to get very real.

 

[Pessimistic]

I’m convinced Dutton will push some more authoritarian legislation through

and organisations will restructure under its cover

otherwise we’ll recover just like any other pandemic

 

[Power Raid]

In a reasonably short period of time we will appreciate corona means nothing for 80% of us

This is an issue for 1% being the old, sick and already dying.

It’s horrible but not the end of the world

 

[Seeds]

In a reasonably short period of time we will appreciate corona means nothing for 80% of us

This is an issue for 1% being the old, sick and already dying.

It’s horrible but not the end of the world

That would be true if we didnt implement such draconian measures. But we are and i dont see governments removing them when the virus numbers go up. Do you? Its the preventative measures that are the problem. How exactly does an economy survive with no one travelling, no one going to recreational events, no one going to restaurants? 70 percent of western economies are services based. Many of these industries have massive debts and reliant on cash flow to stay afloat. I can see our unemployment rate reaching 15 percent before long. Then what happens? The australian housing market collapses. How do we avoid this scenario?

 

[Seeds]

I’m convinced Dutton will push some more authoritarian legislation through

and organisations will restructure under its cover

otherwise we’ll recover just like any other pandemic

No doubt. All countries will. immigration will grind to a halt. Travelling will be band for a year.

 

[Power Raid]

That would be true if we didnt implement such draconian measures. But we are and i dont see governments removing them when the virus numbers go up. Do you? Its the preventative measures that are the problem. How exactly does an economy survive with no one travelling, no one going to recreational events, no one going to restaurants? 70 percent of western economies are services based. Many of these industries have massive debts and reliant on cash flow to stay afloat. I can see our unemployment rate reaching 15 percent before long. Then what happens? The australian housing market collapses. How do we avoid this scenario?

We avoid it by living life as normal and actively encouraging infection for ordinary people

The focus should be putting the sick and elderly

By doing this, the issue will be and gone

 

[Power Raid]

No doubt. All countries will. immigration will grind to a halt. Travelling will be band for a year.

Fighting this will take 18-36 months. We can’t shut down for that long



The alternative is a 6-8 week resolution

 

[Seeds]

We avoid it by living life as normal and actively encouraging infection for ordinary people

The focus should be putting the sick and elderly

By doing this, the issue will be and gone

That is how i would proceed if i were running the country. But im not.

leaders arent asking economists how to proceed. They are asking doctors. Doctors have zero concept of what a major economy crashing does to life and death and living standards. It doesnt come into their analysis. At the moment i cant see how this isnt going to be the Greatest economic tragedy since the great depression. It will be shorter but its depths could be as great. And it will all be due to these social distancing measures and a refusal to give them up.

 

[Power Raid]

That is how i would proceed if i were running the country. But im not.

leaders arent asking economists how to proceed. They are asking doctors. Doctors have zero concept of what a major economy crashing does to life and death and living standards. It doesnt come into their analysis. At the moment i cant see how this isnt going to be the Greatest economic tragedy since the great depression. It will be shorter but its depths could be as great. And it will all be due to these social distancing measures and a refusal to give them up.

The government will be overthrown if they destroy the economy

People will go stir crazy and nasty within 6 week of shut down

 

[Seeds]

The government will be overthrown if they destroy the economy

People will go stir crazy and nasty within 6 week of shut down

And this is the crazy world we are about to enter.

 

[nylexbandit]

All these people pushing the 'full lockdown' option - explain to me how this will actually work. I appreciate flattening the curve, but is the long game that we are doing full lockdowns every 6 weeks for 2 weeks?

 

[Pessimistic]

Fighting this will take 18-36 months. We can’t shut down for that long



The alternative is a 6-8 week resolution

im believing when they say the future will be clearer in 2-4 weeks

 

[Pessimistic]

Refer my washington post link in the main cv19 thread. If we get really cocky we can adjust so the curve doesnt flatten too much and very few get immunity

 

[Jack Gun Cyril Stun]

That would be true if we didnt implement such draconian measures. But we are and i dont see governments removing them when the virus numbers go up. Do you? Its the preventative measures that are the problem. How exactly does an economy survive with no one travelling, no one going to recreational events, no one going to restaurants? 70 percent of western economies are services based. Many of these industries have massive debts and reliant on cash flow to stay afloat. I can see our unemployment rate reaching 15 percent before long. Then what happens? The australian housing market collapses. How do we avoid this scenario?

Had this same conversation today. We can only ‘shut down’ for so long until the threat of economic and civil disaster becomes too great and takes priority. Once these risks rise then the current virus containment measures have to go and hopefully by then we have the resources to deal with those seriously affected by the virus...

 

[Pessimistic]

Had this same conversation today. We can only ‘shut down’ for so long until the threat of economic and civil disaster becomes too great and takes priority. Once these risks rise then the current virus containment measures have to go and hopefully by then we have the resources to deal with those seriously affected by the virus...

exactly. It used to be called buying time

 

[Jack Gun Cyril Stun]

exactly. It used to be called buying time

Question is how long, can only be in weeks as any longer i fear the economic impact be too devastating, but that’s for better economic minds than mine.

 

[yebiga]

That is how i would proceed if i were running the country. But im not.

leaders arent asking economists how to proceed. They are asking doctors. Doctors have zero concept of what a major economy crashing does to life and death and living standards. It doesnt come into their analysis. At the moment i cant see how this isnt going to be the Greatest economic tragedy since the great depression. It will be shorter but its depths could be as great. And it will all be due to these social distancing measures and a refusal to give them up.

It's a question of how long before people start getting irritated by this. Personally, I don't think there is more than 2-3 weeks in it.

At a guess, there will most likely be a million casual workers not getting their hours of work and pay very soon. Small to medium sized business in hospitality and tourism are shutting down. We are such an interconnected economy the repercussions will reverberate across all sectors. People have mortgages, rents and bills to pay. There is no way all this can be simply solved and once you have just a million people who suddenly don't have sufficient funds what do they do?

There are a million reasons why this gets ugly quickly. What is worse, history has repeatedly shown that once things do get ugly they acquire a momentum all of their own. The moment this quarantining and shutting down began, my instincts instantly screamed this is a really really bad idea. There is already a low trust in both the government and the mainstream media, now add to this cocktail masses of unemployed, bankruptcies, rents and bills not paid and you are at the brink of something very ugly.

If this virus is limited to 1-2% fatality rate and heavily waited towards the elderly, than governments and media should be preparing right now to kick start the economy and roll back the control measures towards protecting the elderly.

 

[Balls In]

This has proven how fragile and fake is our society. Globalisation has ensured a domino effect of one infected part guaranteeing the failure of all. Australians have been shown to be badly wanting, a selfish, deeply fractured community. The backlash against "nationalism" a big part of the breakdown of our traditional sense of community.

Massive failure of leadership on display at all levels. For all that, sanity will prevail and the economic bounce back will balance the losses. However at the end of this all we have known must be completely re evaluated.

 

[Admiral Byng]

But surely a vaccine wont be available for a year given all the loop holes that have to be passed? And thats assuming we can find one. Its no guarantee.

in any case before then the world economy will be in its greatest recession since the great depression. Life is going to get very real.

Look, I'm not claiming to be a prophet. I can see cures and vaccines being fast-tracked for approval, or even fast-tracked for "wide-scale testing" without having delays of extra months and years. If that happens then the economic rebound will be quite quick.

 

[HardcoreGeelongFan]

thats what i thought. There is no end to this with our current approach.


im starting to think it would be better to drop all preventative measures and just live with a 5 -7 percent 2020 death rate of baby boomers.

its far better then an economic armagedon that will kill young people And destroy the welfare of all the survivors.

Nah. Boomers are scum but lives before $$$$.

Large companies need to be taxed 70-90% like in the 1950's for capitalism to work. Otherwise the worlds money gets hoarded (trickle up) and the top 100 richest people gain more wealth than 50% of the global population.

Will also be good to watch the airlines implode. 1 month ago we weren't allowed to close borders and protect ourselves because them and universities needed to make money. Now they won't even be able to fly domestic. Serves them right for endangering us all

As for the economy if every business went bankrupt. There's a line of keen individuals waiting to take their market share. These companies are readily replaced as they have been over the last 3 centuries.