Wernumberone
Club Legend
There will only be 1 team that will win a flag with their current list. All coaches agree.
How far are Essendon away from a flag?
- Thread starter Chimera
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There will only be 1 team that will win a flag with their current list. All coaches agree.
Essendon is a young side that's risen up the ladder to finish a game and a half clear in the 8 last year, despite most people selecting them in their bottom 4 for 2011...now those same people are making yet more big statements.....
If they snuck in on the back of an aging list of quality veterans I could understand the scepticism of them challenging for a flag in the next few years ....but those who are suggesting they are no chance for at least 5-10 years are seriously flawed in their thinking.
To eliminate the possibility of a list that age improving dramatically in the coming years is short sighted in the extreme - it also indicates that some people pay little attention to the lessons of the past.
When Essendon were 14th in 1997, how many people would have called the fact that Essendon would be the best team in the comp in 2-3 years??
No doubt many people/sheep would have looked at it and said with guys like Prior, Chris Daniher, Symonds, Cockatoo-Collins, Doolan, Ryan O'Conner, Somerville, Burbakov, Cransberg, Wallis etc all playing regular senior footy (all played a minimum of 11 games that year) that the dons were 5+ years away.
And no doubt many more would have said something like "well they don't have the quality needed in the midfield" and similarly predicted a long road to any success.
Something like 14 of the last 17 years have seen a side from outside the 8 make the top 4.....usually it's been a side who's list has a large number of 1st-4th year players, and rarely has the footy world realised the potential of the list until after the fact.
I'm not saying the dons are guaranteed of any success as there are dozens of variables come into play, but i'm certainly not foolish enough to make grandios statements declaring that it can't happen for many years to come either.
If they snuck in on the back of an aging list of quality veterans I could understand the scepticism of them challenging for a flag in the next few years ....but those who are suggesting they are no chance for at least 5-10 years are seriously flawed in their thinking.
To eliminate the possibility of a list that age improving dramatically in the coming years is short sighted in the extreme - it also indicates that some people pay little attention to the lessons of the past.
When Essendon were 14th in 1997, how many people would have called the fact that Essendon would be the best team in the comp in 2-3 years??
No doubt many people/sheep would have looked at it and said with guys like Prior, Chris Daniher, Symonds, Cockatoo-Collins, Doolan, Ryan O'Conner, Somerville, Burbakov, Cransberg, Wallis etc all playing regular senior footy (all played a minimum of 11 games that year) that the dons were 5+ years away.
And no doubt many more would have said something like "well they don't have the quality needed in the midfield" and similarly predicted a long road to any success.
Something like 14 of the last 17 years have seen a side from outside the 8 make the top 4.....usually it's been a side who's list has a large number of 1st-4th year players, and rarely has the footy world realised the potential of the list until after the fact.
I'm not saying the dons are guaranteed of any success as there are dozens of variables come into play, but i'm certainly not foolish enough to make grandios statements declaring that it can't happen for many years to come either.
Part of that is we've risen a bit before, only to drop again - in recent years. Sheedy's last year (07) we were 8-5 or so then tailed off; Knights got us into finals in 09 then tailed off the year after.
Quite reasonable to suggest they might not consolidate, based on that past history.
This year's a bit different in that we're not losing a bunch of older players, 80% of the list "should" be at least as good if not improve.
Quite reasonable to suggest they might not consolidate, based on that past history.
This year's a bit different in that we're not losing a bunch of older players, 80% of the list "should" be at least as good if not improve.
You're talking about 09 and 10 when Knights was playing Winderlich, Lovett, Dyson and some kids through the middle. Last year it was Watson, Hocking, Lonergan and Howlett as the major starters in the centre square. All are very good extractors but only Watson is creative with possession and none are quick. With Winderlich and Dempsey missing from the flanks, Jetta being played too deep forward and Davey continuing to fumble we looked slow and decidedly vanilla in the midfield for a lot of last year.
What Essendon is lacking mostly is a mid like Shuey, Murphy or (dare I say it) Caddy. These are guys that compete at the coal face and can run away from the congestion as well. They provide a solid link between the inside players and the wingers and flankers.
The other thing Essendon needs is genuine goal sneaks. Dell'Ollio might be good and Davey would be better if he can stop fumbling.
No doubt Essendon will make another big play for Caddy at the end of the year, if he isn't available then it will be someone else. The club will be hoping that Caddy (for example) added to Melksham, Heppell, Kavanagh and Zaka will provide a solid young group to go with the experienced core of Watson, Hocking and Stanton. While a lot of people don't see "the A grade talent" in that group it will be solid. Jetta, Myers and Colyer will all probably rotate through there as well.
So it wont be as star studded as the Geelong group in 07 or West Coast 05 but I think it will be solid enough to push deep into the finals if we get enough right elsewhere on the ground.
Certainly not best in the competition but Brownlow votes and Coaches Award would back up how well Watson was playing prior to injury.
Yes Echols is right. He was the best "performed" player at that stage. Another thing that graphic tells us is, we should lay off the umpires for the Brownlow being a "midfielders award". Cox is the only player there that would be called a mid. However, what makes him such a good player is that he plays like a mid after he competes for the tap.
Precisely why my second sentance read "If they snuck in on the back of an aging list of quality veterans I could understand the scepticism of them challenging for a flag in the next few years....."
And as I explained I'm not dismissing the people who are "suggesting they (Essendon) might not consolidate", because I agree...they MIGHT not.
What I am dismissing as foolish are all the people who are flat out saying the dons can't win it for 5 years, or 10 years, etc.....I just think it's incredibly short sighted, and ignorant of how this competition works is all.
Essendon is on the way up. The problem is that Carlton, Collingwood, West Coast and (to a lesser extent) Hawthorn are also in line to improve a little, and they're better to begin with. We're younger than all of them, but we're still a bit behind.
It'll all depend on how the younger players come on for each side. You'd expect us to start cementing a finals place, and pushing top 4, but winning a premiership is hard.
It'll all depend on how the younger players come on for each side. You'd expect us to start cementing a finals place, and pushing top 4, but winning a premiership is hard.
That is right. I don't think anyside can say "we'll win the flag this year" in any year. All you can do is make sure you're there and there abouts and hope you don't get a bad bounce like St Kilda 2010.
simba_
sucking a lemon
years away
Dyson is contracted to the end of this year. Very rare that any club will break and pay out a contract before it's expiry.
He played 6 games last year mostly when injuries demanded it. I think everyone knows where he's at and he's not really relevant to this discussion.
Quite so!
After the one-year deal he signed last year, he is contracted to the end of this one.
Exactly - he wasn't in contention for seleciton even when most thought he should be.
Ross/Browne preferred (fair enough, go with kids)
So... why give him another deal?
Wow... Are you sure about that? I take it back, ridiculous. I thought 2012 was the last year of a 2 or 3 year deal.
Nah, I'm sure. Double check the contracts thread.
Slatts & McVeigh are on 2 year deals ending this year.
Slatts & McVeigh are on 2 year deals ending this year.
bombermick
Norm Smith Medallist
Dyson getting another year raised eyebrows, but there's worse moves in what was seen as a weak draft.
Slattery, Dyson and NLM have to be gone by the end of this season for the club to go forward.
Slattery, Dyson and NLM have to be gone by the end of this season for the club to go forward.
Weak rookie list probably saved Dyson.
I reckon we "should" have max 2 out of McVeigh/Slatts/Prismall/Dyson/NLM - probably McVeigh & NLM. First 2 had contracts, so we've gotta wear that, but I'd rather have a 4th pick onto the main list than another year of Dys.
I reckon we "should" have max 2 out of McVeigh/Slatts/Prismall/Dyson/NLM - probably McVeigh & NLM. First 2 had contracts, so we've gotta wear that, but I'd rather have a 4th pick onto the main list than another year of Dys.
How much younger are essendon to carlton? i dont think it is that much of a difference.
3-5 years away... if everything goes right for them.
I absolutely despise Essendon, that is a fact. But these silly arguements about Watson being an A grader are laughable.. He is clearly an A grader, and would be one of the top players picked each week if you put him in any team.. His kicking is now longer an issue, which is a credit to him as he was a shocking kick of the ball a few years back.
As for trying to pick where a team will finish up in 5 years time, its pointless.. I personally dont think you can look any further forward than 2 years.. Sides will lose good players that you'd never thought you would lose, and teams, if lucky, can get a rare gem like Buddy who can increase chances very quick.. I never thought we'd lose Fev, but he was gone before i could blink..
I cant see Essendon making top 4 this year or next. After that, is anyones guess.. If they lose Hurley, it could send them back possibly out of the top 8.
As for trying to pick where a team will finish up in 5 years time, its pointless.. I personally dont think you can look any further forward than 2 years.. Sides will lose good players that you'd never thought you would lose, and teams, if lucky, can get a rare gem like Buddy who can increase chances very quick.. I never thought we'd lose Fev, but he was gone before i could blink..
I cant see Essendon making top 4 this year or next. After that, is anyones guess.. If they lose Hurley, it could send them back possibly out of the top 8.
Richmond have done that twice in the last 17 years. I would not be pinning my hopes on that stat.
I can unequivocally state you are years away from a flag. Richmond are too, and we don't have Hird as our coach so we may be even more behind.
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He wasn't say he was the best player in the competition. He was saying that up until round 8 when he got injured he was the form player in the competition last year.
Look at the Brownlow medal votes. I think you'll find this backs him up.
Anyway. it's funny that this thread was started by a Freo supporter. Since 1995 Essendon have won a flag, played in two grand finals and played finals eleven times. In that time Freo have made the finals three times. I'd worry about when your own rabble is going to win a flag, if at all.
Is it a fair arguement that, that shows how far essendon are behind the eight ball?
HurleyTheFuture
Club Legend
Its a fair argument that Carlton has had very high draft picks whilst Essendon hasnt used theres quite as good.
Number17
All Australian
Four to five years.
Not enough players with enough class.
Those with enough class do not have enough experience yet.
Heppell? No way A-grade yet. But likely to be in future.
You couldn't put him in the Boyd / Judd / Franklin / Selwood / Cox / Swann class at this time, which is where you need to be to be an A-grader.
Not enough players with enough class.
Those with enough class do not have enough experience yet.
Heppell? No way A-grade yet. But likely to be in future.
You couldn't put him in the Boyd / Judd / Franklin / Selwood / Cox / Swann class at this time, which is where you need to be to be an A-grader.
What it shows is that despite how the draft has been used, we've been quietly going about recruiting and developing a list without all the fanfare.
The listing of the free agents today makes for interesting reading in Essendon's favour. Aside from Hille and McVeigh, there is 5 players on that list who haven't signed new deals that have been here 8 years or more.
This is how it's worked out (including this year):
Fletcher - 20 seasons
McVeigh - 14
Hille - 12
------------------------
Watson, Winderlich - 10
Dyson, Stanton, Lovett-Murray - 9
Monfries, Slattery - 8
Lonergan, Ryder, Dempsey - 7
Davey, Hocking, Jetta, Reimers - 6
Bellchambers, Hooker, Myers, Pears - 5
Hurley, Zaharakis - 4
Browne, Carlisle, Colyer, Crameri, Hardingham, Hibberd, Howlett, Melksham - 3
Heppell - 2
The others have yet to debut.
Have a look at how many of the blokes have played together and for how long. 33 players that I have counted. Strong core.
