Opinion How far away are we?

[Samcro24]

I didn't say we were a bad team. I said we weren't the best. North were clearly the superior team in 98 and even demonstrated that in the grand final.

Plenty of second, third bests have won a premiership. It doesn't diminish the award. Let's not try and pretend we were world beaters in those years.

Except we were.

 

[marty36]

Well, if we could just get an even deal and not have to deal with two losses gifted to us like last year with WB and Hawks, that would be a great start. Means we would have finished the year a game clear which woulda been a help in finals. If WB are so great as everyone says, how come they needed an arm chair ride against us earlier in the year?? The thing is, even as good as people think GWS will be, it is a very even comp at the moment, unbelievably even.

We may have been good enough last year. We are def good enough this year. Every KPI I look at in regard to success in AfL has us either right in the prime or just on the cusp.

We did have a good injury run last year but don't forget we were missing two people for the whole season who we dearly could have used - Knight and Hampton. in 2014 we still lacked run at speed and spread and the ability to get chase down tackles and pressure, late season knight looked like a solution, then we got hampton, yes Menz adds speed but wasnt going to be ready. We really needed knight and hampton to be available to put us at our peak, but was not to be.

Last year there started to be pressure on for spots, this year it goes up another level easily. Especially in the speed, spread and chase pressure department. Knight and Hampton look good, Menz reports are good, Milera should be good to go for a lot more of the season this year, Gallucci has what we need and Doedee should start to creep into the equation, Gore and CEY are also pretty quick. Cameron up in the midfield, is another, though it robs the forward line a little bit, it will make our zones dangerous things to try and run around in. This season can seriously not come quick enough for me.

The injuries to hampton and knight were well and truly non events, it goes witthout saying those two were replaceable, injuries will occur every year to every team as elitecrow said. If we had lost Sloane, Talia, Walker or Betts then I would be saying we were unlucky and injuries hurt us, i consider injuries to fringe players as extremly lucky when you keep the your Guns on teh park

 

[marty36]

I didn't say we were a bad team. I said we weren't the best. North were clearly the superior team in 98 and even demonstrated that in the grand final.

Plenty of second, third bests have won a premiership. It doesn't diminish the award. Let's not try and pretend we were world beaters in those years.

No different to the Bulldogs last year, which everyone wants us to copy, they had a brilliant finals but were only OK throughout the year. Boyd is rated now earlier in the year there were calls to trade him.

 

[DD#23]

for me it goes one of two ways which I've maintained for a while.

either we take the organic growth line seriously and dump a couple of incumbents and back more young guys in a la McGovern, or we persist with trying to mitigate the risk of missing finals with names like Thompson and Mackay again.

if we take the first approach we could, if the planets align challenge for a flag this year, or worst case slip as low as 7th or 8th. Either way, by September 2018 the investment will be paying dividends and we should be cherry ripe for a genuine attempt.

if we take the second approach, we might be able to win more games during the season and look like finishing well, but I'd put my house on it all coming crashing down in a similar fashion to last year. The consequence however will be that the age gap between our best players (Walker, Talia, Betts, Sloane) and the younger guns we hope to support them will start to look like the grand canyon. You'll be relying on the kids to bridge that gap in 2018 in time for finals which just won't happen. In the meantime the other guys are that much older and that much closer to getting past it.

in my opinion we can't afford to play our strategy too slowly. Time to put lines through Thompson, Douglas and Mackay. You could make some case for them helping us win in Round 1 (which no doubt the club will) but they won't help us win our next premiership. This is covered in more detail elsewhere, but unless Smith has a scintillating season with time on the ball I would look to trade him and our first pick for a Shiel type for 2018.

if our selection strategies mirror last years I think we close the door on ourselves and we won't realistically contend for 5+ years, similar to the gaps between '05,'06 to '12, and then form '12 to now.

 

[marty36]

for me it goes one of two ways which I've maintained for a while.

either we take the organic growth line seriously and dump a couple of incumbents and back more young guys in a la McGovern, or we persist with trying to mitigate the risk of missing finals with names like Thompson and Mackay again.

if we take the first approach we could, if the planets align challenge for a flag this year, or worst case slip as low as 7th or 8th. Either way, by September 2018 the investment will be paying dividends and we should be cherry ripe for a genuine attempt.

if we take the second approach, we might be able to win more games during the season and look like finishing well, but I'd put my house on it all coming crashing down in a similar fashion to last year. The consequence however will be that the age gap between our best players (Walker, Talia, Betts, Sloane) and the younger guns we hope to support them will start to look like the grand canyon. You'll be relying on the kids to bridge that gap in 2018 in time for finals which just won't happen. In the meantime the other guys are that much older and that much closer to getting past it.

in my opinion we can't afford to play our strategy too slowly. Time to put lines through Thompson, Douglas and Mackay. You could make some case for them helping us win in Round 1 (which no doubt the club will) but they won't help us win our next premiership. This is covered in more detail elsewhere, but unless Smith has a scintillating season with time on the ball I would look to trade him and our first pick for a Shiel type for 2018.

if our selection strategies mirror last years I think we close the door on ourselves and we won't realistically contend for 5+ years, similar to the gaps between '05,'06 to '12, and then form '12 to now.

Youre probably right, but if the coach goes youth and it fails and the team fails to make the finals, how safe does his job look against playing a mixture and staying competitive?

 

[DD#23]

Youre probably right, but if the coach goes youth and it fails and the team fails to make the finals, how safe does his job look against playing a mixture and staying competitive?

firstly, IF it fails. If we replace Lyons, Thompson, Mackay and Douglas with four of Knight, Menzel, Seedsman, Hampton, Milera, or even Gallucci I'd put it at less than a 20% chance that we would get any worse, probably less than 7% chance of finishing outside the 8.

secondly, maybe at our club with no balls it puts his job in danger. It shouldn't.

 

[marty36]

firstly, IF it fails. If we replace Lyons, Thompson, Mackay and Douglas with four of Knight, Menzel, Seedsman, Hampton, Milera, or even Gallucci I'd put it at less than a 20% chance that we would get any worse, probably less than 7% chance of finishing outside the 8.

secondly, maybe at our club with no balls it puts his job in danger. It shouldn't.

I am not disgeeing with your proposal, but clubs are based on being competitive these days to keep membership up and interest in the team, drop out of the finals consecutively and the finger will be pointed at the coach, not only at our club but every club in the AFL. Malcom Blight was an exception to this but looked what the saints did with him. Buckleys time is limited however he is trying to build a team for fnals but with the lack of being competitive the drums are beating. Its the way of the AFL. Lets be honest Ken Hinkly is looking down the barrell and he tried a huge amount of youth last year if he fails thsi year hes gone

Will the club gove him licence to try and develop and run the risk of dropping, I disagree with we may only drop a little, Seedsnan, Hampton , Menzel, ROB, CEY, Wigg, Milera, Galluci Doedee, even knight havent shown enough to say they can mix it with the big boys consistently yet, not saying they wont but how many do you give a go at the same time. Tough to ask someone who is judged on the competitiveness of the team and ultimatly his job to try the unproven. We know Douglass, Makay, thommo, Cheney can actually mix it in thje AFL and be competitive.

Will be interesting to see how many changes he is willing to make

 

[Elite Crow]

for me it goes one of two ways which I've maintained for a while.

either we take the organic growth line seriously and dump a couple of incumbents and back more young guys in a la McGovern, or we persist with trying to mitigate the risk of missing finals with names like Thompson and Mackay again.

if we take the first approach we could, if the planets align challenge for a flag this year, or worst case slip as low as 7th or 8th. Either way, by September 2018 the investment will be paying dividends and we should be cherry ripe for a genuine attempt.

if we take the second approach, we might be able to win more games during the season and look like finishing well, but I'd put my house on it all coming crashing down in a similar fashion to last year. The consequence however will be that the age gap between our best players (Walker, Talia, Betts, Sloane) and the younger guns we hope to support them will start to look like the grand canyon. You'll be relying on the kids to bridge that gap in 2018 in time for finals which just won't happen. In the meantime the other guys are that much older and that much closer to getting past it.

in my opinion we can't afford to play our strategy too slowly. Time to put lines through Thompson, Douglas and Mackay. You could make some case for them helping us win in Round 1 (which no doubt the club will) but they won't help us win our next premiership. This is covered in more detail elsewhere, but unless Smith has a scintillating season with time on the ball I would look to trade him and our first pick for a Shiel type for 2018.

if our selection strategies mirror last years I think we close the door on ourselves and we won't realistically contend for 5+ years, similar to the gaps between '05,'06 to '12, and then form '12 to now.

All good until you mentioned trading Smith.

 

[Don Muraco]

At the start of every season I think we are further away.

 

[1970crow]

We had the best % in the league in both 1997 AND 1998

So often forgotten.

 

[DD#23]

All good until you mentioned trading Smith.

I've gone into more detail on the idea of it before, I realise it's an unpopular opinion.

 

[Realslimshady2]

Watching the 2015 finals win over the Bulldogs was annoying, we beat them and the following year we finished 6th again and they won.

They improved but we obviously lost Danger so we had our backs against it. It was annoying to blow it at the end but we had a decent year so we have the makings of a very good side.

How many players are we away from becoming a very good side to a premiership side?

Assuming our forward line remains elite, our defence becomes elite which will happen if they continue to develop and Doedee comes on, I believe we need 2 players to have blinders to be a chance:

Brad
Matt

and 2 of:

Knight, Menzel, Hampton, Milera, Seedsman and Charlie to become good to very good midfielders.

Then if we can add 1 A grade mid in the 2017 trade period we should be primed for 2018.

If those players don't come on we are in a little bit of trouble and will continue to remain only a very good side.

We will make up the finals numbers again but best we will do is a prelim final.
Happy to be proven wrong but we still dont have the cattle to win a flag.

 

[Elite Crow]

I've gone into more detail on the idea of it before, I realise it's an unpopular opinion.

I would hate to contemplate trading Smith until we try him a mid full time.

 

[DD#23]

I would hate to contemplate trading Smith until we try him a mid full time.

agreed, "but unless Smith has a scintillating season with time on the ball" were the words I used.

 

[spenze]

When you look at premiership chances I look at the successful teams that have consistently been contenders say over the last 20 years, we have Hawks, Geelong, West coast and Brisbane who all had periods where they were the team to beat over many years , there are one offs with other teams, but what did all 4 of them have in common, there is clearly a common theme here

Having a reserves side that was unimpeded by the demands of a lesser league?

 

[Sanders]

Surely you'd have to agree that it depends strongly on the draw you're given too.

Quite obviously not. Because % takes into account more than just the binary result

 

[Sanders]

I would hate to contemplate trading Smith until we try him a mid full time.

Surely he's entering the johncock zone?

 

[skoobydoo]

in my opinion we can't afford to play our strategy too slowly.

This. Couldn't agree more. We parhaps seem to let things roll on rather than pushing the tempo of the footy club, particularly with player development and longer term evolvement. Let's make it happen with players a little more forcefully.

 

[GreyCrow]

Youre probably right, but if the coach goes youth and it fails and the team fails to make the finals, how safe does his job look against playing a mixture and staying competitive?

A couple of things and firstly your comment might have merit if it was the 3rd year.

My thoughts are the AFC have decided Don Pyke will be our coach for a lot longer than his initial contract. We have had too much turmoil over the last few years to go through it all again. The club would have seen his personality and abilities from 12 years ago. They would have seen the maturity and experience he brings now.

I think Pyke and the club can ''afford'' a fall to 10th-12th IF they truly believe in the #OrganicGrowth tag.

Personally looking at the draw I think even with 4 out 4 in we should be good for a top 8 spot. But we get games into players. Hampton and Menzel have already played over 40 games each anyway. Its not as if they are rubbernecking tourists out there.

 

[Elite Crow]

Surely he's entering the johncock zone?

Possibly but for different reasons

 

[lincsPJ]

Every team has talent, every team has great coaches ( except Port, they just can't catch a break) but attitude and desire for us...it isn't close to what the Bulldogs showed in September with half their first side out and until that changes, I'm not sure we will get to the last match.

rick davies summed it up so i didn't have to type it myself. attitude. heart. desire. no excuses.

bulldogs showed that they could play great footy all throughout the home and away season, but the thursday final against WC, i remember texting my mate "if they keep that up for 3 more weeks, they're gonna win it". and keep it up they did - they played phenomenal football when it mattered most, and with players out. we always joked about them having 35 HBFers, but who's laughing now? kudos to them.

 

[lincsPJ]

Expert opinion these days suggest that % might be the best measure given uneven draws etc

isn't it lethal that says it's the best indicator?

 

[Thetrader15]

I would hate to contemplate trading Smith until we try him a mid full time.

Happy to swap him and our 207 first for fyfe (provided he makes it all the way thru this year with his leg...he's not a FA next year is he?)

 

[Thetrader15]

rick davies summed it up so i didn't have to type it myself. attitude. heart. desire. no excuses.

bulldogs showed that they could play great footy all throughout the home and away season, but the thursday final against WC, i remember texting my mate "if they keep that up for 3 more weeks, they're gonna win it". and keep it up they did - they played phenomenal football when it mattered most, and with players out. we always joked about them having 35 HBFers, but who's laughing now? kudos to them.

They won because they weren't just desperate, they were manic

 

[Jack is Back]

Didn't we in 97 have a huge run on in the second half of the year? We may have not been the best team in the first half of the year but we would have gone close in the 2nd half.

Yea, nah.

As an amateur footy historian this is far from the truth.
We were 1-3 after Showdown1, played well through the middle of the year to be 7-4 then lost 2 of the last three including a smacking at home from the Dogs and losing the last match to Essendon at Princes Park (who finish 14th) to be 13-9 in 4th position.

It was a very tight premiership table with the Saints finishing top at 15-7 and the Hawks second last at 8-14.

Could we see a similar table in 2017? Early wins will be crucial and we are underdogs in the first two games followed by the away Showdown against the Pear. If we are 2-1, I will start stocking up the Penthouse just off Chapel Street..