How far away do you think we are from our peak?

[Hobbes]

Maybe I don’t understand your post but there was a post yesterday that showed the record of top 9 teams vs top 9 teams, the least played was 8 by freo and Brisbane had played the most with 11.
Not sure how you get an average of 3.11 or are you only talking about double ups?

Sorry, just double-ups. It’s hardly news that everybody plays everybody else once.

Essentially, while the theory is that the good teams get a tougher draw (maybe the difference is roughly one win), It ends up being random who gets a favourable draw (this time - top team Geelong [the field is divided into thirds], middle teams Carlton and Fremantle, and bottom teams Richmond and North. Some teams drew repeat matches against the bottom-six teams Adelaide or Gold Coast (nobody was so unlucky as to get both). Teams that drew unluckily were top teams Port and Brisbane, and middle teams Collingwood and St Kilda.

Essentially, while the intention is that the higher-placed teams get a tougher draw, the average difference is tiny - much less than a win - and whether you get a nice fixture or a nasty one is mostly dependent on luck.

 

[FR0GGY]

Sorry, just double-ups. It’s hardly news that everybody plays everybody else once.

Essentially, while the theory is that the good teams get a tougher draw (maybe the difference is roughly one win), It ends up being random who gets a favourable draw (this time - top team Geelong [the field is divided into thirds], middle teams Carlton and Fremantle, and bottom teams Richmond and North. Some teams drew repeat matches against the bottom-six teams Adelaide or Gold Coast (nobody was so unlucky as to get both). Teams that drew unluckily were top teams Port and Brisbane, and middle teams Collingwood and St Kilda.

Essentially, while the intention is that the higher-placed teams get a tougher draw, the average difference is tiny - much less than a win - and whether you get a nice fixture or a nasty one is mostly dependent on luck.

Did you do this on last years finish or current ladder position or at the time they played them position?

 

[Hobbes]

Did you do this on last years finish or current ladder position or at the time they played them position?

The draw is constructed by dividing the field into thirds - top 6 (I think this means semi-finalists or better rather than minor-round placings), middle 6 and bottom 6. But ultimately, the real difficulty of the draw is based not on how they did last year but how they do this year. Brisbane drew two middle teams and got Fremantle and Collingwood, and one bottom team and got Gold Coast.

 

[FR0GGY]

The draw is constructed by dividing the field into thirds - top 6 (I think this means semi-finalists or better rather than minor-round placings), middle 6 and bottom 6. But ultimately, the real difficulty of the draw is based not on how they did last year but how they do this year. Brisbane drew two middle teams and got Fremantle and Collingwood, and one bottom team and got Gold Coast.

Yes but your calculations were based off last year I’m guessing?

 

[119others]

The squad has been assembled to now be in a premiership window from this year until a minimum end of 2029 as the first stage with Captain Courageous. Look at contract structure, age profile and now chasing mature experienced players in trades and FA rather than going back to the draft. The fact we nailed the drafts for 5 years 2020-2024 means we have the young core for at least 7-8 years. I do wonder if Curtin could be our next captain from 2030 onwards trying him into the club long term. Him or Draper both captaining their respective states in U18 seems to give us good long term options. Could end up being C and VC respectively.

Draper, Ah Chee completely consistent with this mature top ups. Our holistic list is in brilliant space and only needing one more elite mid to be complete but Draper may end up being this. NWM would be the dream but seems unlikely but Tom Morris just said on SEN the Crows were still confident which seems strange as realistically it does seem Port Power (or possibly Saints) will win that race.

Edit had this discussion with old mate 1970 last year. He thought pessimistically “if things went well we could spike for a year not multiple years”. I was perhaps a tad more optimistic:

Funny you should say that as I was genuinely thinking the exact opposite recently, that we have one of the LONGEST ever premiership windows about to open for us. We have an amazing cohort of 23 and unders (plus 24 yo Rankine), will only lose Tex as an important cog over the next couple of years (with Fog perfectly primed to take over), I imagine excellent salary capacity still to keep bringing in trades (we are near leagues best in recent years and turned a corner on this very important aspect) and banked salary $$ from previous years plus effectively a full hand of draft picks going forward. Next year bring in a new ruck to replace ROB and NWM type and we could be pushing 8+ elite players in our team (Dawson, Rankine, TT, Rachele, Curtin and IMO Murray, Worrell, pick 4, NWM. Fog and Soli B+ or better plus our 3 new recruits all very solid B or better players.). I think we could contend seriously for the flag from 2026 for a good 7-8 years. I actually think Crows and Suns will be the 2 dominant teams for half a decade from 2026 onwards

 

[JPetro83]

This year is a bonus. there is no way we all thought we would be a top 4 side and be a contender. I thought we might be in that 7th-11th spot. I thought we would peak and challenge in 2027/28 when we had a new coach.

 

[Hobbes]

Yes but your calculations were based off last year I’m guessing?

References to how the draw was constructed are based off last year, because that’s how they do it.

References to how difficult the draw actually is are based off this year.

 

[PCORF]

I think we could be at our peak now. Hopefully luck goes our way next month.