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How far away do you think we are from our peak?

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Cleric

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 14, 2011
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20,478
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
As I see it we have enteree into our premiership window.
We still have alot of upside coming from the younger players (Curtin, Draper) and we already have a number who are entering their peaks (Michaelanny Worrell, Rankine, Thilthorpe, Soligo, Rach etc) and very few at the ends of their careers (Tex, Smith).
We also have a number who are young and ready to be AFL players now (Nank, Edwards)

Our list profile is excellent, and the only downside is Tex coming to an end. If he was 27 years old, we would be in a better spot even than we are.

Do you think we are at our prime now, or are we still a couple of years out before we hit it?

I still think we are two years away from our peak 5 year run.
When Draper is in the team, Curtin has another 30 or so games into him, and we have made the changes around losing Tex, I think we are ready.
We do need to work on our midfield still, as we do get hammered in the clearances far more often than we should, and getting a player like Draper in should help in that area.

It would be amazing to nab Nas, but I think we are behind both St Kilda and Port in that race.
If we can get a Smith this year in trade, which is possible if Brisbane get Sam Draper, which looks the most likely at this stage, then he should be ready to continue the ruck position along with McAndrew.

It would be good to get some good SA talent back via FA as well in positions we need down the track.

I think this might not be our year, but I won't be worried if we fall short in 2025, because the five to ten years after that should be a wide open window.

What say ye?
 
We're at our prime now. It's really hard to argue a team can go up when they're sitting on 14-5 with 146% and a stellar defensive game.

To be honest, this year has to be our year. Teams don't end up in the situation we're in now that often, so hay must be made whilst the sun shines.
 
We're at our prime now. It's really hard to argue a team can go up when they're sitting on 14-5 with 146% and a stellar defensive game.

To be honest, this year has to be our year. Teams don't end up in the situation we're in now that often, so hay must be made whilst the sun shines.

Absolutely. We are in with a great chance, I think we are playing peak football now, however, its games like the Hawks and Collingwood we have to win so we can go into finals confident with all our structures and game plan.
 

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We're at our prime now. It's really hard to argue a team can go up when they're sitting on 14-5 with 146% and a stellar defensive game.

To be honest, this year has to be our year. Teams don't end up in the situation we're in now that often, so hay must be made whilst the sun shines.

Next year our draw will get harder by about a game or 2. Currently 2 games between 1st and 8th. We do need to improve if we’re going to contend over multiple years. But I think there’s improvement in the list as it is. From our current best 23 we only lose Tex and nobody else should be on a downward trend for a couple more seasons. Maybe ROB with contract security and Laird through age from 2027. But we’ve got improvement in a few players that should counteract that.
 
There are a few things aligning all at once right now, which may not do in future seasons. But there is improvement still to come, and most of our important players still have several good seasons ahead of them.

As good as Rankine has been this year, he's not been at his best. He can go to another level. We're just scratching the surface for Curtin. Draper is waiting in the wings to come onto the scene. The likes of Rachele, Soligo, even Thilthorpe are just getting started. And Worrell, Keane, Michalanney, Hinge, and Murray or Butts should be a defensive unit together for years to come.

There are lots of intangibles that go into winning a flag, but I think the key pieces are in place.

Biggest questions, in no particular order:

  • Can O'Brien maintain his form? Or alternatively, can we find a good replacement?
  • Can we find 1-2 more A grade midfielders? Can Draper become one in time to fit into this current window?
  • How does the side function without Tex? There's no obvious replacement for him yet.
  • Which players will step up into those final few spots and make them their own? Berry, Taylor, Jones, Cook... those spots are still up for grabs.
  • We should still have a few good years from Laird and ANB, but we need options in place for when age catches up with them.
 
The core pieces of the team are all 25 or under, I'd be shocked if we don't see at least 4 or 5 finals pushes over the next few decade.

We are in a really good position to be honest, if players like Sid Draper also hit their straps then it will be a sustained effort. The key will be adding little pieces to the puzzle here and there, such as ANB and a Keays replacement.
 
The midfield currently lacks the kind of star quality that typically successful teams have. Is Berry the long term extractor to generate enough initial clearances? I think our outside mids will be at their best in 2 years once Draper gets up to speed and Curtin does his Bont impersonation every week.

I also think that we need to try our best to extract Dodson from the Saints. He won’t be getting games there if they get DeKoning. McAndrew looks the goods to me but I think Dodson has more upside.

Finally, the Tex replacement. Is Turray the answer or do we need to draft someone like Schubert?

Honestly, I believe we are two or three pieces away from a dynasty.
 
Next year our draw will get harder by about a game or 2. Currently 2 games between 1st and 8th. We do need to improve if we’re going to contend over multiple years. But I think there’s improvement in the list as it is. From our current best 23 we only lose Tex and nobody else should be on a downward trend for a couple more seasons. Maybe ROB with contract security and Laird through age from 2027. But we’ve got improvement in a few players that should counteract that.

Not only does our draw get harder, there is no guarantee players stay healthy.

List wise, there shouldn't be, however there is also no guarantees in this game. There will be some who get exposed by changes we make structurally/game plan wise, some that have their career derailed due to injury or just lose that drive to improve. Heck, Nicks and co becoming stale could see some serious issues arise as players lose confidence from a poor gameplan; see Melbourne under Goodwin in the final two years. 2017 is a good reminder how fleeting these chances can be and why it's critical to strike while the iron is hot.

The big thing is the nuts and bolts of the gameplan is there. Being a strong defensive unit is a fair bit of the battle to have a long shot at contention. Equally it's as much coaching/structure as it is personal. I also suspect Curtin moving to inside midfield is going to fix some of my concerns that we have a midfield group that can be badly beaten (and that may lack a bit of quality at the moment).
 
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Your peak is now as you have as good a chance as anyone to win it.

Darren Burgess joined us in 2020 and won a flag a season later and I see the same parallels in Adelaide's strength, conditioning and ability to run out games. Would Dawson be the player he is today if not for this?

I'm hoping Freo and yourselves go on to win it.
 
You often have more than one 'peaks' within a window, with a step back as some players fade and others step in.

We'll have to deal with Dawson leaving his prime at some point in the next 2-3 years you'd think (being at that time a 30 year old midfielder who's played a very physical style), which would be a significant blow, but you'd also hope we've got peak Sid a year or two after that.

Not saying this is us or we'll have the success they did, but Hawthorn is what you'd kill for: steal one at the start of the window, send the aging warriors off with glory like Crawford, then consolidate with an elite patch once you're truly matured and cash in with multiple cups.
 
You often have more than one 'peaks' within a window, with a step back as some players fade and others step in.

We'll have to deal with Dawson leaving his prime at some point in the next 2-3 years you'd think (being at that time a 30 year old midfielder who's played a very physical style), which would be a significant blow, but you'd also hope we've got peak Sid a year or two after that.

Not saying this is us or we'll have the success they did, but Hawthorn is what you'd kill for: steal one at the start of the window, send the aging warriors off with glory like Crawford, then consolidate with an elite patch once you're truly matured.
I reckon Dawson could easily finish his career forward post his midfield days.
 
I reckon Dawson could easily finish his career forward post his midfield days.

Hopefully, he might have more longevity etc.

But I think you probably can't bank on him being able to carry the team like he has at key moments indefinitely. If you were identifying where we're good and might not be in a few years, he's a key one.

Thankfully, a lot of our other key pillars you'd think could maintain or improve: Thilthorpe, Rankine, Rachele, Fog, Worrell, Max, Curtin, Soligo etc all guys that will be in their prime when Daws maybe drops off, and as I said we do have the potential elite mid in the waiting already.
 

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The core pieces of the team are all 25 or under, I'd be shocked if we don't see at least 4 or 5 finals pushes over the next few decade.

We are in a really good position to be honest, if players like Sid Draper also hit their straps then it will be a sustained effort. The key will be adding little pieces to the puzzle here and there, such as ANB and a Keays replacement.
I think you underestimate how core Tex is to this team both structurally and on field leadership.

We need him to go again next year.
 
I think we're pretty close to our peak right now. We have the best balanced side possibly apart from Brisbane - who looked awesome against Collingwood (and IMO are the team to beat). I'd love us to snag a flag this year, then I think Tex may retire. This would leave bit of a gap for next year.

We have Toby Murray and Welsh (if Burgess can get him fit) as options to work on for that part of the ground, or do we go with Nick Murray (who I'd play deeper, and let Fog play Tex's role higher up the ground - which he seems to be doing anyway right now), and bring Seymour back into the backline - given his form was pretty good and Muzz hasn't really been any better.

We're then probably one short in the midfield still, unless Draper fulfills his potential from next year. Teams always have to try to improve, as other teams work out ways to beat their game plan, so we'll always need to evolve anyway, regardless of the outcome this year.

Note: The other really good thing about this year, is that we've never been blown away, with our Freo game probably the only one that we were not really in with a shot of winning. I don't think there's any side that's been as consistent this year. This should hold us in good stead for the coming years!
 
You often have more than one 'peaks' within a window, with a step back as some players fade and others step in.

We'll have to deal with Dawson leaving his prime at some point in the next 2-3 years you'd think (being at that time a 30 year old midfielder who's played a very physical style), which would be a significant blow, but you'd also hope we've got peak Sid a year or two after that.

Not saying this is us or we'll have the success they did, but Hawthorn is what you'd kill for: steal one at the start of the window, send the aging warriors off with glory like Crawford, then consolidate with an elite patch once you're truly matured and cash in with multiple cups.
This will be DCs midfield from 2027 onwards.
 
I was calling for his head earlier this year, but Tex has won me over. I think we do dip a little bit when he retires.

We should, hopefully, see natural growth from the Curtin, Draper types, but you also can't rely on players like Dawson and Soligo to have career best years. Some players just have off years. Whether we get enough improvement from the younger set to cover the loss of Tex will be yet to be seen.
 
I was calling for his head earlier this year, but Tex has won me over. I think we do dip a little bit when he retires.

We should, hopefully, see natural growth from the Curtin, Draper types, but you also can't rely on players like Dawson and Soligo to have career best years. Some players just have off years. Whether we get enough improvement from the younger set to cover the loss of Tex will be yet to be seen.
Have to keep recruiting well.
 

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How far away do you think we are from our peak?

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