Prediction How far do we go in the finals?

[Bont2Bruce]

They just said on AFL tonight there is chance we could play North in the first week of finals, could someone explain to me how that is possible?

There are two ways this could happen.

In both cases, we have to win (obviously) and also Adelaide have to defeat WC.

Then we also need one of Collingwood to defeat Hawthorn by about 15 points or North Melbourne to defeat GWS (margin doesn't matter).

And if all of the above happens, we would actually finish 4th.

 

[SayerTheCreator]

There are two ways this could happen.

In both cases, we have to win (obviously) and also Adelaide have to defeat WC.

Then we also need one of Collingwood to defeat Hawthorn by about 15 points or North Melbourne to defeat GWS (margin doesn't matter).

And if all of the above happens, we would actually finish 4th.

That's really not all that far-fetched given how Hawthorn have been playing but they're consummate pro's and will easily get over the Pies.

Think I'd prefer to play Norf first week of finals than WC (here)

 

[Bont2Bruce]

That's really not all that far-fetched given how Hawthorn have been playing but they're consummate pro's and will easily get over the Pies.

Think I'd prefer to play Norf first week of finals than WC (here)

Those same Hawks consumate pros got beaten by Melbourne not that long ago though. They are definitely gettable by the Pies, as are all of the top 8 teams if they have an off day. Pies recently took care of GWS for instance.

I think I would prefer an MCG final against WC than against North. I think we are a decent chance to win in either case.

But remembering the last two games against North which have not been enjoyable to watch due to the game day tactics employed which reduced the contest to a slog, I don't find the prospect of a final against them to be something to look forward to.

 

[SayerTheCreator]

Those same Hawks consumate pros got beaten by Melbourne not that long ago though. They are definitely gettable by the Pies, as are all of the top 8 teams if they have an off day. Pies recently took care of GWS for instance.

I think I would prefer an MCG final against WC than against North. I think we are a decent chance to win in either case.

But remembering the last two games against North which have not been enjoyable to watch due to the game day tactics employed which reduced the contest to a slog, I don't find the prospect of a final against them to be something to look forward to.

All valid. A WC game would be more appealing as a spectacle but I believe we're less of a chance to get to week 2 if we play them

 

[stefoid]

Depends on which Pies turn up to the game.

4th would be amazing.

 

[Pannalstaroz]

I'd prefer to play the Hawks than many of the top 8 at the moment. Reckon they're just going.

 

[Dogs Rule]

I'd prefer to play the Hawks than many of the top 8 at the moment. Reckon they're just going.

Would dearly love them to finally fall off the cliff, but don't think it'll happen, just yet.

 

[goodcop badcop]

I have no expectations. I'm just really proud of the boys that they got there in end with the year they had.

 

[Palace03]

Can't see us getting past the second week. West Coast in Melbourne the first week gives us the best chance to progress and as impressive as we have been in spite of injuries it will be a tough ask to get past any of the current top 4 in week 2. I would also be preparing for the worst this week by taking 2-3 emergencies to Perth. If West Coast, Hawthorn and GWS all win and we are stuck in 7th regardless of our result, I'd pull out a couple who are sore/carrying a niggle.

 

[DogDays]

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[Zephiisdaman]

If we get a home final I think we should be able to make it through to the second week of the final where, as it stands, we'd meet Adelaide or Geelong which would be a difficult but not impossible task. I don't think we are any chance of beating West Coast over there if they beat Adelaide on Friday.

Agree with this

 

[murphy2bedabest]

There is just something about this playing group that makes me think anything is still possibl, yes injuries have hindered our chances but I think it has just made them more driven, they have not set a limit on this season.

Let's look at a few things, all we need to do this week is just win, what happens before our game is out of our control.

We have the best coach that will set a plan best suited for the 22 we have out there, all we have to in finals is just win that moment, that game. We don't have to score heaps, we just have to score more than the other side. Regardless who is out there, bevo will make sure we are, as we have been all season hard to score against.

We could be lucky enough to play our first 2 games in Melbourne, IMO we have Norf and WCE covered, not easy wins but I think we beat them.

After our Rd 3 loss to the Hawks I walked away that day confident we will beat them next time we played, I've just had this gut feeling all year that we will be the side to end the Hawks chances for a 4 peat, that's just me.

As for the cats that game in Geelong showed that we can take it up to them, yes everything will need to go right but bevo will have his plans.

IF

If and I mean IF we do get past the first two weeks, that could set up Sydney in Sydney and we don't fear that side, it's one game 120 minutes anything is then possible, as for the crows if we meet them in AO In week 2 or 3 that's going to be a tough ask, but one I'm sure the boys will be happy taking.

We get this far, why not just one more win ? With murphy running last night do we believe in fairy tales? Is 6 weeks enough time? Oh boy what in incredible story that would be.

Sport is a funny thing, sometimes it throws up the most insane story line that has to have you believing that anything is possible.

This side will do everything in its power to make it happen

 

[Barking Mad]

Would love to make it to week 2 but just like my preseason prediction I believe bottom half of the 8 and out week 1. In saying that I believe it's only our injury toll that has allowed my prediction to be possible. 2 weeks of finals experience would be awesome.

I still believe we are ahead of our expectation curve going back 2 years ago. 2 years ago I thought this year playing finals, next hopefully pushing for top 4 and the following getting into the nitty gritty part of the season. looks like we are a year ahead still so next year is when the party starts. Now just get me a ruckman ;-)

 

[murphy2bedabest]

We need to stop saying why us? And start saying why not us !!!

 

[Some Idiot]

I'd prefer to play the Hawks than many of the top 8 at the moment. Reckon they're just going.

Let's not sugarcoat it. They're playing complete garbage at the moment. But they are highly likely to step up their game for finals football.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

There are two ways this could happen.

In both cases, we have to win (obviously) and also Adelaide have to defeat WC.

Then we also need one of Collingwood to defeat Hawthorn by about 15 points or North Melbourne to defeat GWS (margin doesn't matter).

And if all of the above happens, we would actually finish 4th.

There is also a third way:

We win.

WCE defeat Adelaide.

Collingwood defeat Hawthorn by about 15 points and North Melbourne defeat GWS (margin doesn't matter).


In that case we go fifth and WCE sneak in the 4. It is by far the least likely outcome, with us going 4th the next least likely.

 

[Doggies1972]

There is just something about this playing group that makes me think anything is still possibl, yes injuries have hindered our chances but I think it has just made them more driven, they have not set a limit on this season.

Let's look at a few things, all we need to do this week is just win, what happens before our game is out of our control.

We have the best coach that will set a plan best suited for the 22 we have out there, all we have to in finals is just win that moment, that game. We don't have to score heaps, we just have to score more than the other side. Regardless who is out there, bevo will make sure we are, as we have been all season hard to score against.

We could be lucky enough to play our first 2 games in Melbourne, IMO we have Norf and WCE covered, not easy wins but I think we beat them.

After our Rd 3 loss to the Hawks I walked away that day confident we will beat them next time we played, I've just had this gut feeling all year that we will be the side to end the Hawks chances for a 4 peat, that's just me.

As for the cats that game in Geelong showed that we can take it up to them, yes everything will need to go right but bevo will have his plans.

IF

If and I mean IF we do get past the first two weeks, that could set up Sydney in Sydney and we don't fear that side, it's one game 120 minutes anything is then possible, as for the crows if we meet them in AO In week 2 or 3 that's going to be a tough ask, but one I'm sure the boys will be happy taking.

We get this far, why not just one more win ? With murphy running last night do we believe in fairy tales? Is 6 weeks enough time? Oh boy what in incredible story that would be.

Sport is a funny thing, sometimes it throws up the most insane story line that has to have you believing that anything is possible.

This side will do everything in its power to make it happen

Yep, I'm of the same ilk. Just banged a few dollars on the dogs to win the Gf
The start of the year I had us scraping into the 4 and see how it went from there. With how the season has gone, injuries to other teams happening, like Nic at West Coast, Hawks ruck stocks, and how different teams have faired against each other over the season and recently, I think we are actually in for a bit of shot... all going well.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

All I can say is thank god for the pre-finals bye.
We could have up to 3 massive inclusions heading into (hopefully) a home final - If we win that and by some chance of fate we are drawn to play Sydney at the SCG then we have the wood over them there...

 

[AFDogs]

I want North but I don't think I could handle a loss to them.

If we get Adelaide, I go in with expectations at an almighty low and won't leave disappointed like last year.

West Coast is a toss of the coin. Them being slight favourites.

 

[Jen Geoffings]

The AFL site updates it within minutes of matches completing

not sure what you are googling

There is just something about this playing group that makes me think anything is still possibl, yes injuries have hindered our chances but I think it has just made them more driven, they have not set a limit on this season.

Let's look at a few things, all we need to do this week is just win, what happens before our game is out of our control.

We have the best coach that will set a plan best suited for the 22 we have out there, all we have to in finals is just win that moment, that game. We don't have to score heaps, we just have to score more than the other side. Regardless who is out there, bevo will make sure we are, as we have been all season hard to score against.

We could be lucky enough to play our first 2 games in Melbourne, IMO we have Norf and WCE covered, not easy wins but I think we beat them.

After our Rd 3 loss to the Hawks I walked away that day confident we will beat them next time we played, I've just had this gut feeling all year that we will be the side to end the Hawks chances for a 4 peat, that's just me.

As for the cats that game in Geelong showed that we can take it up to them, yes everything will need to go right but bevo will have his plans.

IF

If and I mean IF we do get past the first two weeks, that could set up Sydney in Sydney and we don't fear that side, it's one game 120 minutes anything is then possible, as for the crows if we meet them in AO In week 2 or 3 that's going to be a tough ask, but one I'm sure the boys will be happy taking.

We get this far, why not just one more win ? With murphy running last night do we believe in fairy tales? Is 6 weeks enough time? Oh boy what in incredible story that would be.

Sport is a funny thing, sometimes it throws up the most insane story line that has to have you believing that anything is possible.

This side will do everything in its power to make it happen

Bob said something similar to this at the recent supporters event in Ballarat. Said that finals is like a different season and that anything is possible with this playing group. The example he used was the Sydney game. Said that watching that game live was when he saw how tough our boys really are, and that toughness means (a) we don't fear anyone and (b) when we bring it, we can beat anyone.

 

[ThirdLegUp]

Just looking at this weeks games and how it all sits... You know i don't think us finishing top 4 is such a massive outside chance. So long as we win by a confy margin, say30pts or more, the results we need are possible.

Adelaide beating West Coast in Adelaide is very likely without Nicnat playing a part. But sloane is out also.

Norf beating the giants, is actually possible. It is at Etihad, and north is pretty good at shutting teams down and turning the match into a stagnant wrestle. I don't know if the Giants will cope with that away. Plus higgins is back this week, so even a decent game from him makes them better.

The pies getting over the hawks is the hardest one. Moore being out is a big reason, can cloke go out with a bang? Collingwood have been respectable when they come out to play. The hawks have lost ceglar. This is the hardest one to have go our way.

Will be a very interesting round, which could be decided before we even play.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Just looking at this weeks games and how it all sits... You know i don't think us finishing top 4 is such a massive outside chance. So long as we win by a confy margin, say30pts or more, the results we need are possible.

Adelaide beating West Coast in Adelaide is very likely without Nicnat playing a part. But sloane is out also.

Norf beating the giants, is actually possible. It is at Etihad, and north is pretty good at shutting teams down and turning the match into a stagnant wrestle. I don't know if the Giants will cope with that away. Plus higgins is back this week, so even a decent game from him makes them better.

The pies getting over the hawks is the hardest one. Moore being out is a big reason, can cloke go out with a bang? Collingwood have been respectable when they come out to play. The hawks have lost ceglar. This is the hardest one to have go our way.

Will be a very interesting round, which could be decided before we even play.

Consider it this way: Its a 4 leg multi. Each individual event is at most $2-3. When considered collectively.... we are looking at $10+. Its not going to happen.

 

[ThirdLegUp]

Consider it this way: Its a 3 leg multi. Each individual event is at most $2-3. When considered collectively.... we are looking at $10+. Its not going to happen.

hmm i don't gamble... but i do squiggle!
Squiggle is pretty good at getting it within reason all year. The squiggle has:

Ade by 23. (win for us)
Giants by 5. (within a goal is possible reversal)
Hawks by 18. (not good because squiggle is not often 4+ goals off in the opposite direction)

Sadly it has us by 21, and we have been the squiggles most accurate predictor all year. 21pts will not be nearly enough even if the pies get up, if they do it will be by a goal or under, thus thanks to our s**t %, we miss 4th.

But STILL... i will be watching with interest

 

[bobby2]

Consider it this way: Its a 4 leg multi. Each individual event is at most $2-3. When considered collectively.... we are looking at $10+. Its not going to happen.

Good way to look at it, but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen- it's just unlikely.

 

[stefoid]

Crows are interesting because in some ways they remind me of the Eade coached finals sides - do well all home and away with their run and gun, high scoring style, except for a couple of slightly worrying losses against hard-arsed contested opponents, then roll into the finals, get beaten up in the trenches and scoring dries up.