How I see the ladder after round 22

[rewind]

I have gone thru the rest of the season I tried to predict who will win each game, I have gone by home advantage and how the teams have fared so far. A couple of games I gave to two teams such as this week Mel V Freo in WA as I couldn't split them. This is what I came up with, BTW it was hard to find any team that will beat Essendon. I think this year you will find the 8th team will slip in with 10 wins, and the top 4 or 5 sides will have at least 14 wins. This is only MY opinion, I know everyone else will have their own, I'm not saying this is how it will finish, rather this is how I THINK it will finish. One last thing, Richmond will have a bad run over the next 8 weeks without Richo, so towards the end they will experiment a lot.

Ess 19 wins
WB 16
Syd 15
NM 15
Bris 14
WCE 13.5
Coll 11
Geel 10

Mel 10
Ade 9
Carl 9
St K 8.5
Freo 7
PA 7
Haw 7
Rich 4

 

[jod23]

Rewind your predictions were not too bad although a few were a little misguided. I also went through the draw and predicted my opinion on who would win. Our Top 8 are pretty much the same except to switch Coll with Carl, we both put rich at the bottom and both put freo at 13th so i suppose were both pretty good judges. But Collingwood wont make the 8! Here they are.

1.Essendon 19 72pts
2.West Coast Eagles 15-1 62pts
3.Nth Melbourne 15 60pts
4.Western Bulldogs 13 52pts
5.Geelong 13 52pts
6.Carlton 12 48pts
7.Brisbane 12 48pts
8.Sydney 11 44pts
------------
9.Port Adelaide 10 40pts
10.Collingwood 9 36pts
11.Melbourne 9 36pts
12.Hawthorn 9 36pts
13.Fremantle 8 32pts
14.Adelaide 8 32pts
15.St Kilda 6-1 26pts
16.Richmond 6 24pts

2000 the year of the Eagle

 

[rewind]

The reason I put Coll there instead of Carl is because Coll are playing with so much heart at the moment and I can't see Carlton getting up, their team is too old and this off field stuff is affecting then too much. I think they all resent John Elliot. I think Sydney is where we differ the most, you have them just slipping in and I have then 3rd. I went thru the whole season and then added them up and the end. The key with Sydney is they don't play with a lot of height so this gives them less chance of injury I believe as talls are more likely to get injured. When a tall goes down so do the team as most count on them, Sydney are a running team and will be very hard to beat in the wet.

 

[rewind]

I think you are also forgetting how good Brisbane are at home, they will win 6 of their last 7.

 

[jod23]

Collingwood and Sydney just got off to good starts thats all, theres no way Collingwood can go on with this because they just dont have enough talent. Sydney has the least amount of points for barring the last 5 teams and freo which doesnt say much for their forward line and as the season drags on i think theyll have trouble posting big scores. Yeah the Lions are good at home but everywhere else there pretty ordinary thats why ive put them that far down. I think your underestimating the Eagles, there only problem is consistency, if they play week in and week out like they did against adelaide and the roos then call the season off and just give the flag to them now and save time.

 

[rewind]

The reason why Sydney's scoring is down is cause the SCG is so muddy at the moment.

Sorry but the eagles will not beat Essendon, they will finish around 5th or 6th, this week will be a good test. Melbourne could be the ones, they only lost to Richmond by 2 points in a game they played better then Richmond. and against Sydney they were underman, don't foget how good they were in 1998.

 

[jod23]

Let me guess your a dons supporter right?
Melbourne??? We play Geelong next and Sydney at the SCG or not cant kick goals.

 

[Pessimistic]

Sorry guys, Essendon are good but will be defeated on more than three occasions this year (Longy is already injured for one thing)

I am already right in predicting a 'bolter' from 15th and 16th (in fact both Collingwood and Fremantle are doing well)My other prediclion was that a final four team of last year will miss the eight (i'm not sure who yet) These predictions are based on the last three year's ladders.

 

[rewind]

Hey Pess,

Do you count Carlton as a top 4 team last year, as there is no way of them making the 8.

 

[Arch]

Arch thinks:
fremantle will do alot better than evryone thinks (ie beat teams no one expects them to), but wont make the eight (ill say 9th or 10th). Collingwood will make the eight but will be 7th or 8th- they remind me alot of the Bombers last year- evryone expected them to fall over and they just kept winning.
Richmond, melbourne, hawthorn(?) and st Kilda will all suck and miss the eight.
Brisbane are overrated and will not make the top 4. The Bombers are better than I first thought, the few games they lose this year will be "rest" games (ie like the Port game last year). Plus the Bombers have a piss easy draw. North is an enigma- but one i have ultimate respect for- i wont dare tip 'em finishing lower than 2nd again. The Dogs will finish 3rd, eagles 4th (thus allowing the Bombers to eliminate them yet again), Sydney 5th, brisbane 6th then maybe the Cats (who I really like) and pies. carlton will miss out too. hopefully.
once again - this is my opinion from what Ive seen so far, although tipping stuff like this in round 4 is generally a pretty futile exercise. see if you can dig these posts up in about 3 months time.

------------------
BOMBERS REIGN SUPREME.

 

[Pessimistic]

I seem to remember this time last year there was talk of an eagles v cats GF. Eagles had kept bombers to the lowest score for a 'long' time. Did either make an impression in the final wash up? I think not.

My prediction of top 4 side missing out was based on ladder positions. And I still rate carlton as a top side

I haven't given up on hawthorn yet, but I think 5-8 is much more likely than top four. But please don't bracket us with Richmond, Saints and Melbourne, we are a cut above them.

 

[Joel]

jod, I have to say, your opinions are so biased it is not funny! Stop letting your opinions from being so tainted by the team you support and be a realist! I think that West Coast are good but will prob finish around 4th not 2nd!

This is how I see the ladder:
1. Essendon
2. Western Bulldogs
3. Brisbane
4. West Coast
5. Collingwood
6. Sydney
7. North Melbourne
8. Geelong
-----------------
9. Melbourne
10. Carlton
11. Fremantle
12. Adelaide
13. Port Adelaide
14. St.Kilda
15. Richmond
16. Hawthorn

However, this ladder may change even after this week, depending on the Collingwood Vs Bulldogs match on Friday. This match could change the ladder, with the Bulldogs prob down the ladder a bit! I think Essendon will easily finish top, but this doesn't mean that there will be teams that will beat them. I'd expect them to lose about 3 or 4 (I hope they lose anzac day). Collingwood are better than you think jod, and they have alot more talent then you think (maybe hard to see for you if you live in Perth because you don't get to see them or hear observations from outside sources, as we do in Vic). I'd say over the next few years that Essendon, Collingwood and the Bulldogs will be the "forces". North will make the finals but I'm not exactly sure where they will slide in, but I think that over the next few years that they will begin to lose a few more games, but I think they will fiish about 5-8. I don't think Carlton will make it as teams being to exploit their "slowness", they are sooo slow, you should have seen them against Collingwood. Melbourne is an improving team as showed aginst St.Kilda, and in the Ansett club that I expect that they will just miss out but will be there nextg year. I could go on for alot longer but I can't be bothered, so that'll do!

 

[Joel]

Crap, I hate it when you read over you message and find all these mistakes you make! Typing too fast, better slow down!

 

[Arch]

sorry pes- i actually put a "?" (if you noticed), next to hawthorn because i was debating that with myself, and i hit submit beofre looking it over. but still, theyre too up and down- and i cant see them stringing alot of successive wins together.(ill take back the phrase "will suck and miss the eight" and replace it with "theyll miss the eight")OK?
A.

 

[jod23]

Joel im not being biased im just speaking the truth if everyone can keep healthy we can definitely finish second. You Victorians only ever hear about melbourne teams so you dont get the exposure of the eagles as we do in Perth. We've got the reigning coleman medallist in cummings and great goalsneak phil matera weve got easily one of the best midfields in the competition (cousins,kemp, banfield,braun,matera) and a great defence (jakovich,mckenna,mcintosh and wirripunda). So as usual melbourne will underestimate but thats cool its good to be the underdog.

2000 the year of the Eagle

 

[Dave]

Jod,
we victorians actually get quite good coverage of the teams from all over. From what those I know in WA have told me it's you guys who tend to miss out on an even coverage. BTW, if the Eagles can't beat the struggling Saints or the Swans (at home - interesting to see that you don't rate them despite this), how are they going to dominate the rest of the competition? I wouldn't read too much into the win over Adelaide



[This message has been edited by Dave (edited 03 April 2000).]

 

[jod23]

Now now dave your forgetting about our crushing win over the reigning premiers in round one. And it wouldnt have mattered who we played on the weekend in the form we were in we would have even crushed essendon

2000 the year of the Eagle

 

[Eagle_Fan]

OK, I'd better even this up a bit!

Firstly, not all Eagles fans are quite as
blinkered as Jod23. It's great to have such optimism, but we've got to be realistic too... See the truth is that noone knows just how the Eagles will go. Yes, we have a solid defence, exciting midfield and potent forward line (14!-legend), but only when they 'click'. We did against North and Adelaide, but not Sydney or St Kilda. We could finish anywhere between 2nd/3rd, and 9th/10th. Obviously I hope it's higher rather than lower....

Secondly, the media over here is very much Eagles & Dockers focused, but we really don't get a fair go on The Footy Show, The Game, Live & Kicking (RIP) or the Sunday footy panels. It's really rare that they cross over to talk to one of our guys, or have a WA-based panelist. It's dissapointing for a footy-mad state, so we make our own shows to compensate. Anyone who's seen Basil's Footy Show over here would agree it must be the most blatantly biased AFL show ever, but it's our only chance to here interviews with our players

Anyway, on the topic, Essendon still look hard to beat, and June will be a challenge for Mick and the boys.......

Arch- spot on with Freo. But hasn't that always been the way with them? They'll lose to the bottom ranked team one week, then thrash the league leader the next. So frustrating to watch! Anyway, hope they shake it up a bit this year.... (but not too much. One derby loss is enough thankyou very much).

 

[Grendel]

Top four (barring injuries)

Dons

Lions (thrier run home is awesome)

Dogs

Roos

lump the next eight into a pot any of them could finish anywhere but the swans/eagles and (i hate saying it but they have to many home ground at princes park left) bluescum should be thereabouts. toss up for the last place to whoever bit of luck the Hawks.

Bottom four

Tiges

Saints

Port

Crows

And I dont thing that at the end of the year that any team will have less than 7 wins so at least there wont be any priority picks this next draft.

 

[jod23]

Dave i dont know youve heard but we get every game on channel 7 over the weekend so i dont know which west australians u know

All of you ppl can keep underestimating the Eagles but dont come back to me later in the season when were dominating and beg for forgiveness because i wont hear any of it.
Damn Victorians

2000 the year of the Eagle

 

[Dave]

Jod,
I'm not talking about the coverage of games by 7 as we get nearly all of them here too, but rather the coverage of football in the Perth media - TV news, papers etc. As for begging, pull the other one, it plays jingle bells.

 

[jod23]

oh Eagle_fan! im Blinkered, thats a horrible thing to say. Im not blinkered i just have a little faith.

2000 the year of the Eagle.

 

[Shinboners]

Jod23

What's with the chip on your shoulder? You seem to be wanting to grab some attention, "Hey! You Victorians! Look at US! Please!!!!".

Piss taking aside, you can rest assured though that we do have a healthy respect for West Australian footballers. From Hayden Bunton in the pre-war years to the likes of Polly Farmer, Barry Cable, Maurice Rioli, Gary Buckenara, to the awesome West Coast teams of the early 90s, this steady diet of watching some exceptional talent has always meant that we know far more about WA football than you realise. I know many of my friends when watching Freo will keep an eye on what young Clem Michael does simply because of the reputation of his father, Stephen Michael.

As a North fan, I've been priveleged enough to see the likes of Ross Glendinning, the Krakouer brothers, and Stephen McCann play for our side (okay, we cringed at duds like Phil Kelly and Peter Spencer....best forgotten those two) and these days, Peter Bell and Winston Abraham are club favourites. We have seemed to recruit many excellent players from WA (oddly, in the 80s, East Perth seemed to be our personal breeding ground), so....what can I say? Thanks for all the great talent.

So Jod, forget any idea that WA is some blind spot to Victorian football fans....we apprecicate the talent in your state far more than what you realise.

Cheers

 

[Eagle_Fan]

I guess what Jod is feeling (and it's only a guess) is that it's frustrating to hear how the VFL competition was so much stronger than the WAFL, SANFL etc for so long (in books, documentaries and from uninformed footy fans).... when it seemed that so many of our top players were lured over there by money and other sweeteners (especially those 'bought' premierships in the 70's and 80's).
But like I said, that's only a guess.... and I don't think we are overlooked at all in the AFL. In fact it seems to me that a lot of footy fans are actually quite wary of the WA teams... I hope we can give them good reason to be this year.....

 

[jod23]

Hey Shinboners, sorry about the chip on the shoulder but theres just so many Victorian footy supporters on these boards and theres only me and Eagle_fan from the west so i try to get as much attention to WA footy as i can. Very nice of you respect WA footy im not sure others do so thanks

2000 the Year of the Eagle