How long until we’re back in a final and Grand Final?

[loki04]

Good to see some healthy discussions being had. My intention with this was to share some interesting stats, more so than to make any bold proclamations.

In saying that, I don’t agree that there is a textbook way of rebuilding a team to contend for a flag. You don’t necessarily have to ‘bottom out’, and I’d love to see how many of the recent dynasty teams have had a plethora of top 10 draft picks lead them to the promise land.

As with anything in footy, a lot of luck has to go your way, but I don’t believe Collingwood is as far off as some may be led to believe.

I like the comparison being made to our ‘07 side being a mixture of the ‘02-‘03 contenders with youngsters who got us over the line in ‘10 - the comparison to Hawthorn’s ‘08 winning it early… we’re more than capable of replicating something similar (with some luck) based on this year’s form and the way Fly has got the players playing.

I struggle to have a clear BOG each week nowadays which is an indication that we’re a role-based team now, so personnel is less important (still very important, don’t get me wrong) and if we can add in 2-3 elite kids over the next 2 off seasons, with astute trading/FA, we’ll be right back in contention again.

Mate no team and I mean none have done it without quality first round picks from bottoming out or rebuilding through the draft as a whole.
When you feel you have enough talent then you look to fill the holes from trades.
You don't try circumvent the process trying to stay finals relevant or you end up just wasting a decade treading water never really in the hunt and relying on lucking out one year with things falling into place in 2018 vs the ret of Buckley's tenure.

Richmond had in first round including top 10.

Cotchin @ pick 2.
Martin @ 3.
Conca @6
Vlastuin @ 9.
Reiwoldt @ 13.
B.Ellis @15
D.Rioli @15
Higgins @17
Rance @ 18.

Lynch @ 11 and Prestia @ 9 traded in both for needs both mid firsts.

Some more of their bottoming that didn't make the grade or traded out for more picks. These players strengthen a list and make it more competitive even if in some cases only fringe afl.
Pick 1 Delidio traded gws first and 3rd rounder.
Vickery pick 8.
Lennon @ 12.
Griffiths pick 19.
C.Ellis traded GC.

Astute 2nd round...
Edwards at 26.
Mckintosh 33.

This furphy that they did it off just rookies and ring ins is garbage they went to the draft over many drafts and stockpiled talents then hit up trades fa and overhauled their development programs and coaches, including the building of state of the art facilities that now surpass Collingwood.

They also had a leg speed mandate fastest team in afl throughout there premiership years with 11 of the top 20 recorded players for speed to for their vision of game play.


Melbourne has more first rounders playing then even GWS fielded after concessions. Something like 16.

Geelong 98, 99, 00, 01 drafts were hit hard including a lot of picks in the 01 superdraft, had multiple father son stars taken for next to nothing as rules then allowed.
Had top 3 rated Selwood slip to 7 due to concerns over a knee.


Hawks tanked for years leading up to that early 08 win. They then bottomed down straight after in 09 and had a maturing of list plus trades.
Hodge pick 1, Roughead pick 2, Franklin pick 5, Rioli 12, Lewis 7, croad 3, X.Ellis 3, Ladson 16, Birchall 16, Schoenmakers 16, Smith 19.
They had some astute 2nd rounds taken and early 3rd rounds as well which is also a benefit if bottoming EVERY pick is improved.
They had several other top 10s who failed to fire including pick 3 and 6 in 05.

 

[loki04]

You made the claim our “kids” will be put to the sword by WB mids. So are you now saying we don’t have kids to worry about, given the players you’ve listed?
I’m really not sure what point your making about being put to the sword.

No I didn't. I said our midfield will be put to the sword like vs dogs. Read it again.

 

[loki04]

Success after decades in the wilderness as seen with Rich and Melb, is not a recipe that any sensible Club is going to adopt.
Not sure what you don’t get when I say capable list, trade and salary cap management beats the uncertainty of bottoming out every day of the week.
Bottoming out is a lottery, which Clarkson understands.

Anyway we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Have a good night.

Lol who is talking about decades in the wilderness?
Build a nucleas then look to trade in to fill needs and balance the list.

Even Collingwood of recent decade from mm on have 7 year rebuilds on average. In fact the way we did it under MM is the exact rebuild I'm talking of doing.

Few years down then rebound then keep trading needs in.

 

[loki04]

Good to see some healthy discussions being had. My intention with this was to share some interesting stats, more so than to make any bold proclamations.



I like the comparison being made to our ‘07 side being a mixture of the ‘02-‘03 contenders with youngsters who got us over the line in ‘10 - the comparison to Hawthorn’s ‘08 winning it early… we’re more than capable of replicating something similar (with some luck) based on this year’s form and the way Fly has got the players playing.

Again both these teams DID in fact bottom out over 2 or more seasons!
You guys are using my ideal for a rebuild in those^^ teams for your don't have bottom out rebuild but they did in fact bottom out.

Further the fact we don't have a stand out game changer is NOT a good thing.

Petracca
Martin
Swan
Judd
Cousins
Ablett jnr
Bartell
Selwood
Franklin
Hodge
Mitchell

What do they all have in common? Game changers, match winners. Momentum swinging types.
Richmond don't flag without Martin
Melbourne would also be interesting if Petracca didn't explode gf day.
Etc etc.

 

[joff]

I think the club would be expecting to play a final this year based on the results so far and some close games lost.It would be a massive learning curve for our youth.If we can get a decent break from injuries and some natural improvement in the list then add a dose of luck next year maybe just maybe.

 

[jmac70]

I think the club would be expecting to play a final this year based on the results so far and some close games lost.It would be a massive learning curve for our youth.If we can get a decent break from injuries and some natural improvement in the list then add a dose of luck next year maybe just maybe.

Today’s game is massive in terms of our chances of playing finals. Before the start of the season I had us bottom four.
It’s been an enjoyable surprise. Hopefully more of the same today!

 

[joff]

Today’s game is massive in terms of our chances of playing finals. Before the start of the season I had us bottom four.
It’s been an enjoyable surprise. Hopefully more of the same today!

It's a big day jmac not wrong.it was our game against the hawks during preseason that i took a liking to what fly was cooking we really flogged them then we put the kids in and they came back at us I'm really looking forward to seeing how we go today

 

[Anzacday]

Looks like we’ll be playing in Melbourne’s Grand Final again next week.

 

[jonbe54]

Looks like we’ll be playing in Melbourne’s Grand Final again next week.

Nothing unusual there Anzac.

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

I think with the progression and development so far this year, of the list and game plan, then at seasons end, draft and trade in shrewdly, then l definitely think we can play finals next year, with a serious tilt at the flag in a couple of years.
This season has been enjoyable so far, particularly with the game style, and development of the youth, but l'm still expecting some up and down performances, which l think will go against us playing finals this year, hopefully l am wrong however...
I do think it's fantastic that at the midway point of the season, we are still discussed as one of the teams who can still make the 8, this season Win today, and we could be in, so all those that predicted us to be bottom 4....

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Looks like we’ll be playing in Melbourne’s Grand Final again next week.

Melbourne struggling at the moment though, with teams that are moving the ball quick, catching out their defence.
We obviously like quick transition this year, so it could be an interesting watch next week....

 

[Pistol Night]

Melbourne struggling at the moment though, with teams that are moving the ball quick, catching out their defence.
We obviously like quick transition this year, so it could be an interesting watch next week....

May back for us naturally

 

[soreplums]

Pinch a flag over building for sustained success...hate that route tbh.

2010 was built off drafting and then trading in needs when the bulk of the list was set in place. Ball Jolly et el.

Why people are so obsessed with hit and run style flag builds, that if it goes south, has you 10 plus years in the wilderness and realistically a very low chance to even win one.

I’d be happy to pinch a flag and then trade players who over achieved at overs to build the sustained success!

I’m just being greedy though

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Long shot, but if we’re back making finals this season on the back of the contributions/performance of Dean, Carmichael and Johnson, our window swings back open.

Would be absolutely huge, but also incredibly unlikely.

If those three help win us this year's premiership, Derek Hine will be guaranteed a job for life.

 

[Pistol Night]

World War 2 really ****ed our momentum. We were churing out flags for fun until then. * Hitler

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

May back for us naturally

True, but quick movement of the footy inside F50, can catch Melbourne out. Also we can be a high pressure tackling team, which also Melbourne has struggled against the last 2 weeks. So we do have some assets that could bother the D's....

 

[TheGreatGrundy]

Three players yet to play an AFL game hold the key to us making finals?

Those who have never played an AFL game are often believed to have far more ability than their actual game form eventually reveals.

 

[Pistol Night]

Those who have never played an AFL game are often believed to have far more ability than their actual game form eventually reveals.

Yep. I firmly believe i could of been anything

 

[jonbe54]

World War 2 really ducked our momentum. We were churing out flags for fun until then. duck Hitler

. . . . and the Goebbels he rode in on . . .

 

[PieLebo87]

Mate no team and I mean none have done it without quality first round picks from bottoming out or rebuilding through the draft as a whole.
When you feel you have enough talent then you look to fill the holes from trades.
You don't try circumvent the process trying to stay finals relevant or you end up just wasting a decade treading water never really in the hunt and relying on lucking out one year with things falling into place in 2018 vs the ret of Buckley's tenure.

Richmond had in first round including top 10.

Cotchin @ pick 2.
Martin @ 3.
Conca @6
Vlastuin @ 9.
Reiwoldt @ 13.
B.Ellis @15
D.Rioli @15
Higgins @17
Rance @ 18.

Lynch @ 11 and Prestia @ 9 traded in both for needs both mid firsts.

Some more of their bottoming that didn't make the grade or traded out for more picks. These players strengthen a list and make it more competitive even if in some cases only fringe afl.
Pick 1 Delidio traded gws first and 3rd rounder.
Vickery pick 8.
Lennon @ 12.
Griffiths pick 19.
C.Ellis traded GC.

Astute 2nd round...
Edwards at 26.
Mckintosh 33.

This furphy that they did it off just rookies and ring ins is garbage they went to the draft over many drafts and stockpiled talents then hit up trades fa and overhauled their development programs and coaches, including the building of state of the art facilities that now surpass Collingwood.

They also had a leg speed mandate fastest team in afl throughout there premiership years with 11 of the top 20 recorded players for speed to for their vision of game play.


Melbourne has more first rounders playing then even GWS fielded after concessions. Something like 16.

Geelong 98, 99, 00, 01 drafts were hit hard including a lot of picks in the 01 superdraft, had multiple father son stars taken for next to nothing as rules then allowed.
Had top 3 rated Selwood slip to 7 due to concerns over a knee.


Hawks tanked for years leading up to that early 08 win. They then bottomed down straight after in 09 and had a maturing of list plus trades.
Hodge pick 1, Roughead pick 2, Franklin pick 5, Rioli 12, Lewis 7, croad 3, X.Ellis 3, Ladson 16, Birchall 16, Schoenmakers 16, Smith 19.
They had some astute 2nd rounds taken and early 3rd rounds as well which is also a benefit if bottoming EVERY pick is improved.
They had several other top 10s who failed to fire including pick 3 and 6 in 05.

You’re swinging and missing completely with what I’m saying. You’re not saying a lot wrong, but you’re also missing the mark completely.

No-one here is saying we don’t need quality first rounders + top 10 picks to challenge.

What you’re getting completely wrong is that we need to completely bottom out NOW to come back up again.

The major key to Richmond’s premiership success is one Dustin Martin, he has won 3 Norm Smiths. It’s not the plethora of top 10 picks that have won them flags.

You’re right in your next post, he’s a match winner, and we haven’t really had that this year. But I never said we have NO match winners. We have different players that bob up each week and contribute.

Pre 2021, Petracca wasn’t the absolute megastar of the competition, he became in. Pre 2017, Martin was similar, and simply exploded in 2017. You’re pretty much saying we don’t have any potential match winners on our list. We’ve got JDG, and he may not ever get to the level of Petracca and Martin, but he has shown great glimpses and the 2018 GF is a prime example - 22 years of age and kicking 3 of our 11 goals including the 1 that put us 2 goals up early in the last.

I don’t disagree that we are light on after that for genuine match winners in that 22-26 mark though right now.

Back to your list of first rounders needed to challenge. Did you know that WCE had 9 first rounders and 5 top 10 picks 2018?

In 2016, Doggies had 4 first rounders, all of which were top 10 picks.

In 2021, Melbourne had 9 first rounders and 7 top 10 picks.

This year, Collingwood has 9 first rounders and 4 top 10 picks (excluding Pendles and Sidebottom) so we don’t exactly need to completely bottom out. We can finish just outside finals, get another top 10 pick and keep adding to the list.

We don’t need to be as far off as you think.

 

[loki04]

You’re swinging and missing completely with what I’m saying. You’re not saying a lot wrong, but you’re also missing the mark completely.

No-one here is saying we don’t need quality first rounders + top 10 picks to challenge.

What you’re getting completely wrong is that we need to completely bottom out NOW to come back up again.

The major key to Richmond’s premiership success is one Dustin Martin, he has won 3 Norm Smiths. It’s not the plethora of top 10 picks that have won them flags.

You’re right in your next post, he’s a match winner, and we haven’t really had that this year. But I never said we have NO match winners. We have different players that bob up each week and contribute.

Pre 2021, Petracca wasn’t the absolute megastar of the competition, he became in. Pre 2017, Martin was similar, and simply exploded in 2017. You’re pretty much saying we don’t have any potential match winners on our list. We’ve got JDG, and he may not ever get to the level of Petracca and Martin, but he has shown great glimpses and the 2018 GF is a prime example - 22 years of age and kicking 3 of our 11 goals including the 1 that put us 2 goals up early in the last.

I don’t disagree that we are light on after that for genuine match winners in that 22-26 mark though right now.

Back to your list of first rounders needed to challenge. Did you know that WCE had 9 first rounders and 5 top 10 picks 2018?

In 2016, Doggies had 4 first rounders, all of which were top 10 picks.

In 2021, Melbourne had 9 first rounders and 7 top 10 picks.

This year, Collingwood has 9 first rounders and 4 top 10 picks (excluding Pendles and Sidebottom) so we don’t exactly need to completely bottom out. We can finish just outside finals, get another top 10 pick and keep adding to the list.

We don’t need to be as far off as you think.

Actually that's exactly what he was saying, Nospin was saying trading your way to a flag and finding role types will get it done. He and you were stating rebuilds don't need bottoming then used 2 sides who did bottom as case points...


Don't need to build through the draft, which is rott. It's no man's land rebuild philosophy but looks good on the resume made finals 7 out of 9 years but didn't win a thing.

We have:
Pendles, Sidebum, and WHE (lol).

Grundy, Adams, Moore and Degoey mid range.

Quaynor, Henry, Reef and Daicos.

The group needs bolstering down low the next gen not the older gen for a sustained run.
You want Quaynor Reef Daicos etc coming through with another group over next 2 years.
Having Grundy, Moore and Degoey as elder statemen.


You and I see the list at different stages, we are capable of making finals I don't disagree with that my disagreement is its a good long term result.

 

[PieLebo87]

Nothing here is opinion based. Purely sharing facts with the army.

In Collingwood’s 125 years of existence, we’ve only gone more than 3 seasons without finals on 3 occasions. More than 4 seasons, twice. More than 5 seasons, once!

As you’d be aware, we average a GF every 3-4 years. In our long history, we’ve only gone more than 4 seasons without a GF 6 times.

View attachment 1416186

Light at the end of the tunnel or a lazy, cold Saturday morning looking at stats?

That light is bloody blinding!

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

This is gonna sound nuts, I'm well aware, but I was mucking around with the ladder predictor and honestly, if we make the Grand Final this year, I reckon it could be against Fremantle

If we beat Geelong, they play Freo at Kardinia. Where Freo has a fantastic record. They then get Melbourne in the Prelim, again, where they've already beat them.

I'm aware this is contingent on a lot of things, but I reckon there's a sneaky chance of a Collingwood Freo Grand Final

 

[sr36]

Don't get me started on Geelong they are very fortunate to have had 2 genuine stars want there in Dangerfield and Cameron. Touhy was also a very good HB even at Carlton. They also picked a few from the draft that have done well at their picks.

THe other thing with the Cats is that they have had amazing longevity from some of their stars. Hawkins is only one year younger than Travis Cloke.

 

[SwanDaneFan1991]

This is gonna sound nuts, I'm well aware, but I was mucking around with the ladder predictor and honestly, if we make the Grand Final this year, I reckon it could be against Fremantle

If we beat Geelong, they play Freo at Kardinia. Where Freo has a fantastic record. They then get Melbourne in the Prelim, again, where they've already beat them.

I'm aware this is contingent on a lot of things, but I reckon there's a sneaky chance of a Collingwood Freo Grand Final

I am one of the pivotonian wilder people, and no chance they play a final down here, surely? The stand isn't finished. They would lose money getting 25k into a final down here. The AFL will just take a small loss playing a warm up for Geelong's PF, at the 'G. Before this sounds condescending, I did some goggling, and couldn't find any reference to Kardinia Park being able to host a final. That said, I would love to play the Dockers in a GF at the 'G, and absolutely steam roll them. Call it an Exhibition match