Prediction How many career goals can Lance Franklin get?

[radiojake]

I legit saw that photo on the afl.com site and the headline said something about 'who is this skinny kid called lance' and i thought it was a puff piece about a random draftee at the swans who also happened to be called Lance.. .

hopefully he can turn it back on for the twilight of his career

 

[Roddy]

Over 1000 in the age of flooding is a stunning effort.

Could have finished with 4 flags though, not 2

 

[queensberryrules]

The big goal, the one that really matters, a Premiership at the Bloods, looks too far away. It has been a failed if glittering experiment. Foreplay without the Grand climax.

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[Bonz]

The big goal, the one that really matters, a Premiership at the Bloods, looks too far away. It has been a failed if glittering experiment. Foreplay without the Grand climax.

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Not sure if failed is the right word for it.

Yes ideally we would have had a flag, but five years finals out of six, two grand finals and record membership numbers (let alone the merchandise he would sell and fans he brings in).

Overall I would say the deal has been a pretty big success.

 

[Brad Goodman]

Can see 1100 max, but thinking closer to 1050.

 

[4THAWN]

If he wants to kick 1200 goals, he'll need to pump out a solid coleman-like year in 2020 to be within reaching distance.

Sitting at 944, getting to 1000 next year would be a great effort. One could expect him to taper off in his effectiveness as he ages, maybe he'll only be good for 40 goals as a Half forward/winger. If he managed to get to 1100 that would be a super effort, but cannot realistically see him reaching or getting close to 1200.

 

[Power Raid]

944
2020 33 goals
2021 27 goals

 

[Big Blood]

He's got two good seasons left, so I reckon he can get past Doug Wade. About 1060.
Swans have pretty modest midfield so there won't be a lot of supply but he's in good nick. Should be able to kick just over 50 a season.

 

[Goomba1973]

He will be hell bent on getting a 1000 then start winding down or pulls the pin entirely.

 

[adammania9]

Will take until the end of his days to get to the 1000 mark. It will happen and it will be special but I reckon it'll take everything he's got. 1,010 is my prediction.

 

[Scotland]

Looking at it this way:

1. Tony Lockett (StK/Syd)
+61
2. Gordon Coventry (Coll)
+45
3. Jason Dunstall (Haw)
+197
4. Doug Wade (Geel/NM)
+26
5. Gary Ablett (Haw/Geel)
+51
6. Jack Titus (Rich)
+36
7. Lance Franklin (Haw/Syd)

Three contracted years left so catching Dunstall in 3rd is possible but unlikely. I think he'll pass Titus this year and go close to passing Ablett Sr by the end of the season. 2019 was the first time he missed a lot of games with physical injury. I reckon he'll finish up somewhere between 1050 and 1100. I don't think he'll play 3 more full seasons of kicking 50-60+. I hope he does and it wouldn't surprise me if he comes out and has a massive 2020.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Has Buddy been unwell? He doesn't look great at all in those pics, how is he actually moving in training?

 

[sobrave]

951
More goals, that is. So 944+951 he should finish on 1895 goals at the tender age of 47

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

The big goal, the one that really matters, a Premiership at the Bloods, looks too far away. It has been a failed if glittering experiment. Foreplay without the Grand climax.

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Premiership would have been nice but I’ve loved every minute of having him at the Swans and hope he plays right through to the end of his contract. An absolute joy to watch.

 

[threesixpio]

He'll finish on 999 goals.

Fev will then give him the finger

 

[Wayne Swan]

Has Buddy been unwell? He doesn't look great at all in those pics, how is he actually moving in training?

Looking fit and strong and sharp but will be held back a little until Xmas. He's hardly done a preseason with us since he arrived so to having on the track first day with the kids was great.

 

[theyellowsash]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle the next few years with his body and not get to the 1000. Players who rely so much on their athleticism can really fall off a cliff when it goes, which looked like buddy this year. I can't see him getting to 60 in a year again, but that said he should get enough in the next 2-3 years to end in the 1000-1050 range.

 

[queensberryrules]

Premiership would have been nice but I’ve loved every minute of having him at the Swans and hope he plays right through to the end of his contract. An absolute joy to watch.

I cant argue he has been a joy to watch, a great and unique player who draws crowds, and much admired across the comp.

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[Freomaniac]

How many more years is he contracted for? And how many goals per year does he need to make it to lockett?

The ranges in the poll are a bit off. Barring injury he will get to 1000, assuming he plays on the year after he should get to 1050. My guess is he finishes between 1050 and 1100.

Not sure how many years he has left but don't see him getting to 1200, but he's some outside chance to get above 1100 if he can play 3-4 more seasons of 18+ games each.

Lance franklin signed that 9 year contract from 2014-2022.

Its 2020 next season.

I reckon if Franklin plays at least 20 games next season he will kick 50 goals.

Saying that, I hope he reaches to 1000 goals

 

[WCE_phil]

1044.

50 games over the next 3 years at an average of 2 goals a game.

 

[Schauermann]

With 2 more years he'll get to 1000. Even when he is not at his peak anymore, he still was 3rd in the league for goals/game, while he was not at top fitness in all his games. 21 games needed on this year's average.

1100 will be a lot more difficult. Needs 3 season of 52 goals. Or more seasons with less goals. Feels very unlikely but not impossible.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I cant argue he has been a joy to watch, a great and unique player who draws crowds, and much admired across the comp.

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Seems like a genuinely nice bloke who just loves his footy (maybe it's not hard to love footy when you're that good at it, but other than his mental health break a few years ago - and good on him for facing up to his reality - despite so much success, he doesn't seem to be getting jaded in any way. The exuberance is palpable.)

 

[didaksrightfoot]

I think 1050 is the over/under: 30-50 per year for 2-3 years.
I can't really see him kicking much more than that in a year again, or for playing any longer than that.

I reckon he'll do enough to get over 1050, and get to 4th on the list, but it will take a massive turnaround to get close to the top 3 / 1200 goals.

 

[Stan Van Gundy]

Seems like a genuinely nice bloke who just loves his footy (maybe it's not hard to love footy when you're that good at it, but other than his mental health break a few years ago - and good on him for facing up to his reality - despite so much success, he doesn't seem to be getting jaded in any way. The exuberance is palpable.)

Cocaine is a helluva drug.

 

[deanc]

Wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle the next few years with his body and not get to the 1000. Players who rely so much on their athleticism can really fall off a cliff when it goes, which looked like buddy this year. I can't see him getting to 60 in a year again, but that said he should get enough in the next 2-3 years to end in the 1000-1050 range.

There are some people 'in the know' at Sydney who tell me that due to some reoccurring old injuries and a few more recent, Mr. Franklin will be carefully 'managed' next season and they will be pleasantly surprised if he actually plays beyond next year...?