How many games can we win in 2001 ?

[Dan26]

While it impossible to predict the result of the one-off Grand Final match itself in 2001, we can certainly predict how many wins we will acheive in 2001.

Who knows, we could quite easily be the best team and lose the Grand Final, but I wanted to know how many H&A victories we will have.

Looking at our list, it is relatively young, which leads me to believe we will see some natural improvement from the younger players who havn't reached their peak.

Having said that, we can't possibly have the same luck with injuries, and we won't have the same level of motivation as we did in 2000, due to the fact that there is no tragic loss burning in our hearts like there was at the end of 1999.

I think we can still win 19 Home and Away games. 19-3 would be an awesome performance, when all the other teams are gunning for us.

Is that too ambitious ?

 

[RoBomber]

I agree with you Dan..

We had a lot of luck last year with injuries (which was about time..)hopefully this will occur again but is unlikely..

We had a lot of younger players to and there was encouraging signs they are ready to take the next step.

Blumfield showed great maturity in Grand Final and he looks like he will take the next step..

Carracella, Heffernan, the Johnsons and Solomon can also improve as will Lloydy and Lucas who will still be only 22...

Hopefully 19 or 20 wins can happen....

 

[Dan26]

It's unbelievable how a team can even contemplate wining 20 H&A games, when, before 2000, only one team, in the history of the VFL/AFL had won 20 H&A games.

But, then again, we have an awesome team. Also, we now have an experienced, mature team, to add to the wealth of talent. Watch for Aaron Hennemann to step up and play regular football, and perhaps it's about time McVeigh put his hand up and really took that next step.

It's ridiculous to talk about 20 wins, but then again, it was ridiculous to think a team could win 24 out of 25.

 

[walshy1993]

dont forget jacobs and as ive said time and time again we have yet to see the best of dean rioli, he has an uncanny ability
switala and mcgrath will be handy, but dont think we will see them get many games till 2002
and the one i really think to watch for is mcalister, if he wasnt ready to step up and play afl footy the club wouldnt have kept him when u consider the players we have let go over the last few years

there is no reason we cant win 22 if all goes well, but all u need is a few things to go wrong and we may only win 10, but i think 18-22 is a fair estimate

 

[Dan26]

How could I forget about "arguably" our most skilled palyer, Dean Rioli.

This guy walks on water. He has self-disciplined gimself after he let his weight balloon and he wll be an awesonme addition to our line-up.

Realistically, if things go right, there is no reason why we can't go 20-2. But, the question is : will everything go right ?

 

[Arch]

Nothing is beyond of the realms of possibility. I remember Dutchy posting a message before season 2000 started- saying the best way to get back at Carlton after the 99 prelim, would be to beat their h&A record of 20 wins, and win the GF. I didnt think it was possible at the time. SO now- who knows???

Put it this way- depending on injuries, if we lost 5 games or more, I would be dissappointed with the H&A effort.

DO you really think the motivation will drop off Dan ???



[This message has been edited by Arch (edited 06 November 2000).]

 

[Dan26]

Arch,

That's an interesting question regarding motivation.

There is no reason why it has to drop off. Some players are obviously going to be different than others, so you would have to measure each players motivation separately. Dean Rioli, for example, wasn't motivated at the start of 2000, when the rest of the team was. Yet, in 2001, after a premiership, he is going to knuckle down and get fitter for 2001. Every player is different.

In the 1990's, most teams had a hard time in dealing with premiership success, and they invariably struggled the following year - as we did in 1994.

But in the NBA in America, teams won back-to-back with monotonous regularity.

LA Lakers won back-to-back in 1987-88. Then, the Pistons did it in 89-90. Then the Bulls did it in 91-92-93. hen, the Houston rockets did it in 1994-95. Then, the Bulls did it in 1996-97-98.

So, for TWELVE CONSECUTIVE years, the championship was one by a team. in either their first or second (or in the Bulls case, thrid) year of back-to-back triumphs.

The Bulls coach, Phil Jackson said that the motivation to win it again was greater, becasue everyone was after what you've already got. Another team is trying to "steal" what you won last year, so, theoretically, the motivation should be better.

That's the approach we should take in 2001. Be aware that we are the reigning champions. And treat every other team as a little brother who is trying to take our ball of us. We have to "protect" what is ours.

When you are chasing a premeirship, like we were in 2000, we havn't got anything to protect. We are the hunters. But now we are the hunted, so the motivation to keep what is ours and not let the other clubs get it, should be our motivation.

If Sheedy is looking for an approach to keep them motivated..... that should be it.

 

[Arch]

yeah- a good way of approaching things i think too. The Bulls were always driven by Jordan, and his total lust for success. Whether Hird or sheedy have that same inisatiable desire, i dont know yet.

But I think in terms of the hunter and the hunted, Id prefer if we made an early season statement (ansett cup maybe??).

That Essendon will continue to be the hunters, not the hunted.

yeah- that sounds good.

 

[Arch]

yeh i like that

------------------
BOMBERS 2001- THE HUNTERS. NOT THE HUNTED.

 

[S.Robbo]

Don't think they'll achieve the heights of this year, but still think 19-3 is around the mark. As we've all mentioned the motivation factor won't be as large as it was, after 99 prelim, however complacency definetly won't be an issue either.

Was having a chinwag to Chris Heffernan at the Clarendon in Sth Melb on Sat and he still reckons the club feels shortchanged, given the fact that 1999 should've been ours. So don't expect the boys to drop the intensity too much.

Back to back...how sweet it would be.

 

[Dan26]

I agree Arch. if we win the Ansett Cup, it will scare the s**t out of everyone. The other teams, will be more worried about how to stop us, than about their own teams. This is a recipe for disaster for the rest of the competiton, so I hope we can make an early statement as you said.

 

[Dan26]

I've got no problem with being the hunted Arch. That's what hapens when you are successful. But we can still be the hunted and continue to fight off all the "hunters" who are coming after us.

It's impossible to be the hunters when we have got the trophy that everyone wants. We are "defending" our premiership, so naturally, teams are going to come after us.

I do agree that we still need to get one back for 1999. Everyone says that 2000 made up for 1999. That's crap. We should have won two in a row, so we are still "one-down"

The only way we can get one back for 1999 is to win a premiership when we don't deserve it. To "sneak" a premiership, so to speak. We nearly did this in 1996.

So, we won't be able to get back 1999's loss until we become an inferior team, similar in quality to 1996. If we keep winning flags when we deserve them (like in 2000), this can't make up for 1999. The only way to make up for it, is to win a flag when we don't really deserve it.

If we do this, it cancels 1999 out. So, to be honest, I hope this doesn't happen for a few years yet. I want to continue to be the best for a little while.

 

[Arch]

i know what you mean by defending our premiership etc- I just like the sound being the Hunters- its kind of like we havent changed the plan- we'll continue to "go for the jugular" like we have this year, and make the rest of the AFL a target, rather than the other way round. (its more of a question of how youd like to market it really).

On another point lads- I bumped into a guy who used to work at my company. he knew I was a mad keen Dons fan, so we started talking about the footy.

This guy actually had the nerve to tell me that he thought Essendon 2000 had been a "mediocre" side and that it was just that rest of the teams in the league werent up to normal standard this year.

I just held up my hand (in that ricki lake TALK TO THE HAND, GIRLFREIND type fashion) and said, "good chattin' to ya mate- Ill cya later".

Can you a football follower of ANY persuation would honestly beleive that ?????

Last time I stop and talk to that guy.

A.

 

[walshy1993]

i dont know whether we will win the ansett cup, last year there was a real passion to win after 99, this year there may be more of a opportunity to play some more kids
as for the real thing, no doubt there is plenty of motivation there,
asked if he was coaching a great team sheeds said they havent achieved anything, after the flag when the same question was asked sheeds said that they have only won one flag

i think they still have plenty to play for, most of to break carltons premiership record, not just equal it
add dean rioli, danny jacobs who both missed out, im sure they have plenty of motivation, im sure long and wallis would want to go out with a flag, perhaps even barnes
there is plenty of motivation to go back to back, without a doubt

 

[Dan26]

Walshy,

Don't listen to what Sheedy says in response to the question: "Do you think it is a great team?"

You can only look at one year individually. The 1999 list is diffeent to the 2000 list which is different to the 2001 list.

We went 24-1 with a percentage of 160. This qualifies as being a great team. End of story. We could get the wooden spoon in 2001, and it wouldn't stop the fact that the 2000 team was "arguably" the greatest team of all time. 2000 and 2001 are different years.

If we are talking "eras", then that's a differnet story. But the Essendon team of 2000, regardless of what happenes in 2001-2-3, is one of the greatest teams of all time.

I am one of the people that believes that we already proved our greatness long before Grand Final day. Isn't 21-1 over 22 weeks enough to prove how good you are ? Everyone knew we were a better team than Melbourne, even if they had upset on on GF day, anyway. I think our 44 hours of football over 6 months was the best guide to if we were great or not. The Grand Final just made it "official"

But deep down, everyone knew we were a great team, even if things didn't go to plan over the 2 hours on Grand Final day.

 

[Pessimistic]

Every Bomber face on GF day was nervous. Where's the confidence ?
Anything less than 25-0 would be a backward step next year

 

[RICE80SF]

No a disaster Pess

.


------------------
RED & BLACK BACK to BACK 2001!

 

[Shinboners]

Nice to read that all you Essendon fans aren't getting too cocky. Before opening this thread, I was dreading having to read, "So guys, do you think we can go undefeated for the next two or three seasons?"

 

[Pessimistic]

So, Bomber fans, you seem to think you will lose approx. 3 games next year.

Who do you think will beat you ?

Bear in mind the '95 Carlton bandwagon lost all four wheels in round 12 1996

 

[Shinboners]

Pess

They will lose round 1 to North Melbourne, round 16 to North Melbourne, and the Grand Final to North Melbourne.

Shinboners
(ever the optimist)

 

[Dan26]

Pessimistic,

It is impossible to pinpoint one-off games, that we think we may get beaten in, because we don't know the merits of the other 15 teams.

In 1999, we lost only 4 H&A games, yet one of these was a 73 point debacle against West Coast. In that match, in perfect conditions, we managed only 3.5.23.

In 2000, with a percentage of 160 (idicating we were approximately 6 goals better than we were in 1999), that 73 point loss still would have translated into a 37 point loss had our 2000 team been involved.

The most likey matches we will lose are interstate games. We nearly came unstuck against the Swans in Sydney this year and had to rely on some Hird magic in the last quarter to pull us out of the quicksand.

Games in Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth in 2001 will result in "possible" losses. In 2000, we were fortunate that we came out to play every week. But history shows that there is always one match (or two), where you are not "on the job". Who knows, we could easily come unstuck against a middle of the road team (like St.Kilda, for example).

I look upon our 2001 seaosn as simliar to Hawthorn in 1988-89. Everyone knew the Hawks were the best team by a country mile, yet everyone knew they would come unstuck a few times, which they did three times each year.

I think 19-3 is a realistic result for us. But wouldn't it be marvellous if we made up for coming so close to the perfect season, by going 25-0. That would be justice after the near miss last year.

One advantage we've got, is that the rest of the competiton, deep down, probably don't feel they can beat Essendon. of course they can, but deep down, they may not believe in their heart. This gives a huge psychological advantage to the Bombers.

 

[Dan26]

Shinboners,

Obviously you are talking with your tongue planted firmly in your cheek, but ironically, the ONE team who deep down probably DON'T believe they can beat Essendon, is the Kangaroos.

You could see it in their body language in the Qualifying final, after Essendon promptly responded to David Kings opening goal with two or three goals of our own.

[This message has been edited by Dan24 (edited 09 November 2000).]

 

[Arch]

who will we lose to ????

Funny that no ones mentioned the Doggies.

I reckon that will be a most interesting game to see what tactics are employed by Wallace and Co.

I also think it'll be one of the most interesting games just for the spite factor involved after that "melee" in rnd 21, and the little edge that the Dogs may have mentally,having been the only side to knock us off in 2000.

A.