Moved Thread How might the AFL be in 20 years?

[Howard Littlejohn]

Why do people keep pushing Darwin... Just because it's a capital city deoesnt mean its big enough to have a team.
The place is a slightly bigger version of a rural town/city. It will never get a team.

Not in the next 20 years, but by mid-century it might be able to support a team and that puts it wel ahead o Tasmania or Canberra.

In that timeframe I would expect a 3rd team in Perth, and either a 3rd Sydney team or a 4th Perth team. Hopefully with all existing teams still around as well.

 

[thegreig]

What did it look like 20 years ago? Four less teams
What did it look like 40 years ago? Six less teams

So far the expansion has been rather rapid
I believe there will be another lull in expansion as the current situation settles.
The most extreme possibility is A 3rd WA team and a Tasmanian team

There wil be now Wellington, No Darwin, No TOKYO

Andy D said in an interview that there will be no more expansion for a long time and certainly none while he is still in charge, but if he had to give an answer to who would be next it would be 3rd WA, 3rd Queensland (up north) and more grassroots programs to take place in NZ.

THE AFL has begun to hypothesise how the league will be shaped in 2030, with a third club based in Western Australia and Queensland part of its thinking.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/demetriou-takes-the-long-view-of-expansion-and-games-abroad-20120825-24t6f.html#ixzz2AfyN9JLm​

 

[madmug]

Andy D said in an interview that there will be no more expansion for a long time and certainly none while he is still in charge, but if he had to give an answer to who would be next it would be 3rd WA, 3rd Queensland (up north) and more grassroots programs to take place in NZ.

THE AFL has begun to hypothesise how the league will be shaped in 2030, with a third club based in Western Australia and Queensland part of its thinking.

​

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/demetriou-takes-the-long-view-of-expansion-and-games-abroad-20120825-24t6f.html#ixzz2AfyN9JLm​

AD says a lot of things are in his thinking. Its easy to pose a few scenarios & talk crap. The biggest issues in his 'thinking' would be his pay packet & keeping the Victorian status quo.

 

[le dominateur]

Shocking OP. I would boot Adelaide out before Port, no place in the competition for draft tamperers & salary cap cheats.

 

[West123]

I see Fiji more likely than NZ.

Fiji population 868,400. New Zealand 4,405,200. What exactly makes Fiji more likely? Nic Nat?

 

[Stewies Power]

The future locations of expansion for new AFL teams ranked in order of most likely to least likely are;
Tasmania
ACT
North Queensland

Areas that already have a team but could cater for another would be;
Perth
North or South Sydney? I don't know a lot about Sydney, but have heard a few mention these two areas before in various other threads.

 

[Colonial]

North or South Sydney? I don't know a lot about Sydney, but have heard a few mention these two areas before in various other threads.

Hell no, Sydney has a long history of east vs west. 2 teams is fine. Maybe a Newcastle or Wollongong team, but not before Canberra, Tassie, Nth Queensland, 3rd Perth team..

 

[Stewies Power]

Hell no, Sydney has a long history of east vs west. 2 teams is fine. Maybe a Newcastle or Wollongong team, but not before Canberra, Tassie, Nth Queensland, 3rd Perth team..

Agreed, nothing will happen in Sydney or NSW until the Giants have a sustainable support base.

 

[Jonts]

Fiji population 868,400. New Zealand 4,405,200. What exactly makes Fiji more likely? Nic Nat?

Nic Nat, Rodan, Carlile

Rodan wants to make more pathways there after his retirement

Fijians would adapt to the game better

 

[crows90]

Nic Nat, Rodan, Carlile

Rodan wants to make more pathways there after his retirement

Fijians would adapt to the game better

I think expansion would be driven by the potential to get more people to watch the game, having an adequate development pathway for talents is separate from expansion.

 

[Hodge is God]

Hell no, Sydney has a long history of east vs west. 2 teams is fine. Maybe a Newcastle or Wollongong team, but not before Canberra, Tassie, Nth Queensland, 3rd Perth team..

Wouldn't see Wollongong having the support in a thousand years..

 

[Colonial]

Wouldn't see Wollongong having the support in a thousand years..

Agreed, thats how much i believe a 3rd Sydney team is wrong. Its the perfect mix now.

 

[Jonts]

I'd say Tasmania should've got a team over GWS but you know....

 

[Colonial]

I'd say Tasmania should've got a team over GWS but you know....

I, obviously, disagree.

 

[Cwross]

1. 3rd WA team
2. 3rd SA team (Norwood?)
3. Tassie

Adventurous option:
London team to try and spread the game, Footy already has many expat fans in the UK but can also spread to Poms (like me!)

 

[Jonts]

I think for at least until 20 years 2 teams in Adelaide seems right

At the moment there is probably 80k fans max that will go to watch AFL footy on a weekend, with the move to AO expecting this number to rise up to the 90k mark

Currently its Adelaide with 45k of the fans with port 25k with their being neutral fans (Vic team fans) being around 10k

All of the SANFL sides will get somewhere between 6-14k at their games, where all of these fans for a new team coming from? With half of these fans already being a member of either Port or Crows

 

[thegreig]

I think for at least until 20 years 2 teams in Adelaide seems right

At the moment there is probably 80k fans max that will go to watch AFL footy on a weekend, with the move to AO expecting this number to rise up to the 90k mark

Currently its Adelaide with 45k of the fans with port 25k with their being neutral fans (Vic team fans) being around 10k

All of the SANFL sides will get somewhere between 6-14k at their games, where all of these fans for a new team coming from? With half of these fans already being a member of either Port or Crows

I agree, the whole situation is a bit of a mess really (although the AFL did seem like they were doing the right thing at the time) it should have been two new teams from scratch North Adelaide and South Adelaide. There is no way Norwood (or any other state team) will ever enter the AFL again

 

[cougar000]

Stuffed if they keep changing things year to year.

 

[Hodge is God]

1. 3rd WA team
2. 3rd SA team (Norwood?)
3. Tassie

Adventurous option:
London team to try and spread the game, Footy already has many expat fans in the UK but can also spread to Poms (like me!)

I don't see the point for a 3rd WA team. Why, do we need it? Expand the game? Everyone has their team. WCE and Freo have already a huge rivalry.

SA are struggling with 2. I can't see 3 happening.

For Tassie.. yeah.. maybe.. it should happen BUT Tassie is already an AFL dominated state and Vlad is all about expanding the game.

 

[madmug]

I don't see the point for a 3rd WA team. Why, do we need it? Expand the game? Everyone has their team. WCE and Freo have already a huge rivalry.

SA are struggling with 2. I can't see 3 happening.

For Tassie.. yeah.. maybe.. it should happen BUT Tassie is already an AFL dominated state and Vlad is all about expanding the game.

SA are struggling with 2 teams because the AFL brought in 'the team for all South Australians', then brought in the most hated local team in the country. Port were never going to attract or represent 1/2 of the South Australian footy support base.
At least in WA, Freo area had two clubs & the other team wasnt called Perth. It is growing so a 3rd team is inevitable I would reckon.
For Tassie 'yeah, maybe'. It is Australian rules dominated. The AFL suck it dry!
Give us a team of our own Vlad, you bastard!!!!!

 

[Gibbke]

Not the AFL's fault with Port. They could have reached out to all SA fans and said "get on board, we're not the Port you hated before, we're all about slaughtering Victorians yadda yadda..."....but no, they have a great argument with Allan McAllister about who gets to wear the prison bars, then they choose SANFL Port heritage guernseys, then they shove 1870 on the back for all to see...I could imagine many SA families torn apart under the weight of argument about barracking for this new team v the history of their family hating the Magpies' very existence...ex-pat SA friends of mine doing exactly that, with cries of "But it's f###ing PORT!!!" being screamed over the sound of slamming doors...(might be a bit of over-dramatisation there)...

Port have really dropped the ball on this one...

 

[Jonts]

Not the AFL's fault with Port. They could have reached out to all SA fans and said "get on board, we're not the Port you hated before, we're all about slaughtering Victorians yadda yadda..."....but no, they have a great argument with Allan McAllister about who gets to wear the prison bars, then they choose SANFL Port heritage guernseys, then they shove 1870 on the back for all to see...I could imagine many SA families torn apart under the weight of argument about barracking for this new team v the history of their family hating the Magpies' very existence...ex-pat SA friends of mine doing exactly that, with cries of "But it's f###ing PORT!!!" being screamed over the sound of slamming doors...(might be a bit of over-dramatisation there)...

Port have really dropped the ball on this one...

So you wanted to have a "Southern Power"

What would alienate and destroy a huge chunk of its current supporter base (or future if we're looking at it in terms of 1990's scope) by being able to appeal to people that already had Adelaide as their team, so destroy 30 000 for around lets say 15k tops? It wouldn't work, Port Adelaide representing themselves as Port Adelaide with their traditions and history is the best thing for any second team in SA

 

[thegreig]

So you wanted to have a "Southern Power"

What would alienate and destroy a huge chunk of its current supporter base (or future if we're looking at it in terms of 1990's scope) by being able to appeal to people that already had Adelaide as their team, so destroy 30 000 for around lets say 15k tops? It wouldn't work, Port Adelaide representing themselves as Port Adelaide with their traditions and history is the best thing for any second team in SA

yeah but let's say it was was North Adelaide Crows (without the states colours) And South Adelaide Power (but they entered the AFL in 90 or 91 instead of 97) then surely it would be a different story..?

 

[tribey]

yeah but let's say it was was North Adelaide Crows (without the states colours) And South Adelaide Power (but they entered the AFL in 90 or 91 instead of 97) then surely it would be a different story..?

A pair of clubs no-one gives a s**t about?

 

[thegreig]

A pair of clubs no-one gives a s**t about?

Just like no one gives a s**t about west coast... excellent answer...