How seriously do you take your punting?

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mouncey2franklin

Premiership Player
Jun 16, 2018
4,118
5,776
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Today for the first time I sat down and looked closely at my 'profit and loss' for 2020.

Betfair make this very easy. Sportsbet, not so much.

Anyway today I discovered that for 2020 I am miles ahead on AFL and miles behind on soccer, at least with betfair.

For the year 2020 so far, according to my betfair P/L:

AFL: +69 units
Soccer: -59 units
MMA: -8 units
Motorsport: +15 units

For those of you who don't use betfair, they have an option when you are logged in which tells you exactly how much you are up or down for all sports.

I only learned about this today. It is an excellent facility, I kinda wish I had known about it sooner.

Looking at my figures earlier tonight, I realised that I had no idea I was burning so much cash on soccer.

Yes, I've been betting on soccer way more this year than normal, especially the Belarus football league when nothing else was on.

And I have gotten into the habit of betting on EPL over the past year or so, since I've been living in Asia where the timezone works well to watch it.

But I wouldn't have guessed I was down almost 60 ****n units already this year on soccer.

Also the AFL +69 is deceptive: about 60 units of that are from the Coll/Rich draw in Rd 2.

(I had a feeling about that game, put a unit on it, what a celebration that one was).

The Motorsport +15 is also deceptive: that's all from last weekend when a guy I backed to make the podium did so by the barest of margins*

*Some other guy got a 5 second penalty, so my guy, who finished 4th, was given 3rd, lol.

So realistically I consider myself above average (at best) with AFL, and absolutely shithouse with soccer. I honestly did not know I was this bad.

With MMA and motorsport the sample size / turnover is too low to read anything into it.

Tomorrow I'll sit down with my sportsbet csv (excel file) and try to see if I can figure out the P/L for different sports for myself.

I know that for 2020 so far I'm up 8 units overall with with SB, which sounds okay, but if Betts had kicked one less goal today, I'd only be about even.

Which is all I'm looking for: If I break even on a turnover of a few hundred units in a calendar year, I figure I've done well. This is all just entertainment for me.

I don't really watch movies and I don't have netflix or anything like that. Sports is my way to 'unwind'. I like to bet on one team to beat another.

Given that SB are taking 10+% and betfair maybe 3% (?), if you can turn over 100+ units and break even, in a way you've kinda won...

...if you get what I mean.

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Now I want to know, how closely do you monitor / track your own results?

Do you have sports which bring home the bacon and others which burn it?

Are you trying to win overall with this? Are you happy just to break even?

Do you have goals like this or do you literally just punt for fun and pay no long-term attention to it?

(Sorry if there is already a thread like this, if so, feel free to merge)

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P.S.

Betfair make it so easy to track P/L, sportsbet do not.

In fact if you try to call SB to ask them about this, expect to spend 30 minutes waiting on the phone. That's what happened to me.
 
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54Dogs

Premium Platinum
Feb 18, 2008
8,563
4,316
Nowra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Happy to be corrected but my understanding is that BF only make your profit / loss available for the past 3 months online. I had to request a full P&L list for the past 7 years from my BF account manager, which was provided separately via email a week after the request. This included turnover and individual sports breakdown.
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,718
3,824
AFL Club
Adelaide
Fights - reasonably seriously. ROI over 25% for both MMA & boxing over the last 3 years (boxing almost 32%). Usually get an annual holiday from it
Everything else, I'm definitely down on. It's entertainment only and 1/10th of what I'd bet on a fight so no real issue to me.

I keep my own sheet for fights. Summary page breaks down sport, prop type (method of victory, round totals, moneyline etc), underdog/favourite. Good to see what works, what doesn't.

If livebetting wasn't such a pain in the ass here I'd make a motza on mma but I don't bother with it currently...
 

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NYRB

Premiership Player
Oct 6, 2011
3,868
1,438
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Research, knowing your sport well, and managing funds , getting the best odds for yourself, understanding the percentages/probabilities involved, keeping track of your P&L long term are the keys to winning in my opinion. Think in my betting history, I have a record where I was hugely profitable in sports I knew: cricket and AFL. Sports like soccer, requires more luck as it is a sport followed globally and if you get a ROI of around 5-6% long term considered ain't too bad. Sometimes , the key to winning it to lower your expectations rather than hope for a significant windfall.

I have my own models, whilst the purpose of the bets is to win, in case if things do go balls up, having a back up plan is important too.. With my models , im happy to lose on bets, even if I had a better expectation which was greater than the terms of percentage that the set odds. I read a few good books on betting, and turned myself from a mug 1.0X backer to getting value for your bets.
 
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ash_1050

Premiership Player
Nov 21, 2009
3,062
5,310
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
I jump in and try a few different strategies to see if they're profitable over a period of time. Not a big fan of betting on short term stuff over one game, more a fan of long term value. Sure it's not as glamorous but it's more consistent and requires a lot less work.

Of concern there are several punters on the punting board who seem to be problem gamblers, throwing bets at everything that moves, imposing a betting restriction only to break it, betting on higher odds plays trying to claw back some winnings. It goes without saying that not everyone on the board can be profitable and/or enjoyable but there are some here who for whom it is neither profitable or enjoyable, it's merely fulfilling an absence of something else.
 

54Dogs

Premium Platinum
Feb 18, 2008
8,563
4,316
Nowra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Arbing and bonus bets/promo abuse as well as price boosts then laying off will net you about 5k before the tap is turned off.
Then after that you obviously gotta get smarter.
Yep anyone can make a short term quick buck with a bit of commonsense, the challenge is longevity and sustainability, which is when it becomes more of a grind and challenging
 

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