How the AFL lost the battle for Sydney

[Sky]

The Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore is already ingrained with Swans already with the only difference is these people will just as likely go to the Wallabies as the Swans provided it is an 'event'.
Out West however, you can't play people to go to GWS games as it is all RL. These people won't even be open to it.

Would have thought that these would be the same type of people who would rather Sydney win a premiership than anyone else just because it’s a NSW team? Even as a success I’m not sure if there would be a real rivalry

 

[Kappa]

Would anybody seriously suggest there's ever been a proper "battle" for Sydney? It's a rugby league city - the biggest rugby league city in the world, really - and the AFL has just made a lot of attempts to take a bit of the pie.

I reckon most Sydney people would consider "the battle" similar to the NRL's "battle" for Melbourne. Establishing a presence as best you can over decades for the purposes of broadcasting dollars etc... but a "battle" conjures up two sides going at it to win. The AFL will not "win" Sydney. Not within a century anyway.

The AFL can certainly win certain areas of Sydney, preferably the cashed up ones... Let the bogan areas follow NRL.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The NRL has embraced 20 somethings big time with cheaper ticket prices and an almost rock concert atmosphere
at games. Swans supporters in Sydney are almost exclusively an Anglo crowd largely from the Eastern and Inner West
suburbs. GWS supporters are mostly from the West and there are 1,500 or so footy tragic Swans fans who also go to
GWS games because one game a fortnight is not enough footy. NRL crowds are a bit more multi-cultural and probably
reflect the demographic makeup of Sydney a bit better.

What sort of crowds does your average NRL home and away game get?

 

[EconomicDecline]

What sort of crowds does your average NRL home and away game get?

Rugby League Tables / Attendances 2022

Rugby League Tables - NRL Stats & Tables

afltables.com

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

The Eastern Suburbs and Lower North Shore is already ingrained with Swans already with the only difference is these people will just as likely go to the Wallabies as the Swans provided it is an 'event'.
Out West however, you can't play people to go to GWS games as it is all RL. These people won't even be open to it.

True. A lot of my Swans-following mates are totally into the Swans. But unlike me, they’re also totally into the Wallabies.

I’m not sure a comparable phenomenon exists in the footy states.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

People think in such short terms and black and white outcomes with these things. There doesn’t have to be only winners and only losers, just growth over time.

Rugby League will not weaken in its prime markets. What can happen over time is the whole market grows and AFL builds within its communities and becomes gradually more self-sustaining. It doesn’t just take decades, it takes generations. But it does work when it is sustained.

The battle is not lost, because it is a demographic battle, not a sporting one. The key numbers aren’t dollars but people and families over time.

Good post!

 

[Oscarman]

Why does there have to be a battle with a winner? The Swans have done fine in establishing themselves in an NRL city.

Cos a lot of Vic based AFL fans think they have to destroy the NRL. Will never happen.

 

[RocketBooster]

Support for the Swans is strong and increases year by year. A well run club with sustained on field success and in touch with their supporter base. The Swans are the #1 team across all the codes for support around the City/inner west / Northern Sydney areas

GWS support in Sydney has peaked and they will struggle to gain even minimal extra support in Western Sydney for the next 10-15 years.
GWS needs a couple of academy players who radiate the star power of Buddy Franklin and play for a decade. A story arc of having played League in their youth would be a bonus.
Until that can happen GWS will struggle to gain further meaningful western sydney area support.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Rugby League Tables / Attendances 2022

Rugby League Tables - NRL Stats & Tables

afltables.com

Thanks
Those averages seem healthier across the board than say 10 years ago

 

[GWT6]

This reminds me of the arguments AFL fans have on here over who has the bigger membership or "XXXX is now part of the big four clubs". Same as the AFL and media bragging about the size of the new media deal.

It's just a pointless pissing contest that has no impact on the enjoyment of watching the game. It's ego at the top of the sports, but most people couldn't care at all, and the amount of revenue the game has doesn't seem to flow down to the fans or local footy. I'm involved in a junior football club and we pay the AFL a fee for each player, not much comes back.

 

[GWT6]

Thanks
Those averages seem healthier across the board than say 10 years ago

Rugby league is a better game to watch on TV than in person, Union even more so. AFL is better in person than on TV. For this reason AFL crowds will always be better regardless of how many people support the code.

 

[DrJon]

GWS is a long term investment. It provides an additional game for TV and is in a significant growth area, with a lot of migrants that arent wedded to RL and are ripe to become possible AFL fans in the future. It needs time; hardly a sunk cost fallacy, as it's not evident that it won't eventually work.

 

[madmug]

People think in such short terms and black and white outcomes with these things. There doesn’t have to be only winners and only losers, just growth over time.

Rugby League will not weaken in its prime markets. What can happen over time is the whole market grows and AFL builds within its communities and becomes gradually more self-sustaining. It doesn’t just take decades, it takes generations. But it does work when it is sustained.

The battle is not lost, because it is a demographic battle, not a sporting one. The key numbers aren’t dollars but people and families over time.

I wonder what a real cost benefit analysis would show us.

Generations? How many? Whats will be the $$$$cost? What guarantee it will work in Generations, or centuries, or ever?

The NRL crowds in the area are not really that great considering the population. So How does one quantify it being a success.

PS you cant discount the cost.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I agree with posters that the timeframes here are huge and it's way too early to be declaring a result of any kind, but I also can't help thinking that (a) there's a big difference between being the only AFL team in a town and being the second AFL team in a town, and (b) the world is such a different place to 1982, when the Swans arrived in Sydney, that we can't just say "well it worked in the end for the Swans so it'll work for GWS eventually".

 

[madmug]

I agree with posters that the timeframes here are huge and it's way too early to be declaring a result of any kind, but I also can't help thinking that (a) there's a big difference between being the only AFL team in a town and being the second AFL team in a town, and (b) the world is such a different place to 1982, when the Swans arrived in Sydney, that we can't just say "well it worked in the end for the Swans so it'll work for GWS eventually".

I'd say the two biggest points to make are that the Swans most probably soaked up all the Aussie Rules support at the time when they started from The South Melbourne move. A lot of expat Southerners & local Aussie rules people began to support them. Also, the Swans got a big boost from the Rugby League wars of the 1990's.

It certainly took 30 years to 'get it together'.

To repeat what I've said before, GWS exist, & thus one hopes they do grow. However, that is far from certain. Meanwhile, the costs mount. Its natural to be concerned.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

People are missing the point a bit here IMO, It's not even really a battle against Rugby League, it's just a battle for sporting interest in general, and there's a variety of reasons for this.

Being a Victorian living up here, the AFL vs NRL argument is far less prominent than you'd think. From suburb to suburb it varies in allegiance, but you're honestly more likely to find a bloke who couldn't give a rats about sport as a whole, which just isn't the case in other Australian states.

Aussies in general love winners, but in Sydney it's a different level. If you're not winning virtually nobody cares, and even if you are, nobody cares until the finals. There's not the same buzz throughout the season of riding the wave to a premiership or going to games, and that shows through crowd figures in both sports.

The Swans do pretty well crowd wise and I attend a few games with mates just to get back into the spirit of things, but I think even Sydney supporters would agree that it's definitely viewed more as a 'night out', rather than a cauldron for rostered on supporters like the MCG is during the season.

That fact is in Sydney that's what sport is...it's just another aspect of the entertainment industry. It's a different demographic up here and it's not an age thing either, it's just the way it is.

It comes back to Sydney's elitist view of things IMO. Every state has it's less desirable suburbs, but in Sydney there's a definite nastiness towards the west, and therefore you're not to behave as a 'westy' would and it's something I had to adjust to after moving here. I live in the North Shore and it's honestly pretty horrible what's said about people who are less fortunate, or live out west just by choice.

That behaviour comes into sport as well in terms of the passion. You can watch, but you can't be too invested. It's unfortunate and there's a variety of geographical reasons for it, but it's just the way things are up here. It's far more cut and dry in terms of suburban stereotypes than other cities than I've lived in, but again that's just personal experience.

 

[kranky al]

Shocking proof the Swans and GWS have failed to attract fans.

AFL loses the battle for Sydney: Swans and GWS fail to attract fans

Hundreds of millions of dollars in AFL cash has not been enough to win the battle of Sydney against the NRL. New figures have shown the Swans and GWS are AFL liabilities and fans are tuning out

www.dailymail.co.uk

Its almost like when you want it to be the VFL but pretend its the AFL - people in another parochial af city see through the facade.

 

[Tyberious Funk]

The Swans do pretty well crowd wise and I attend a few games with mates just to get back into the spirit of things, but I think even Sydney supporters would agree that it's definitely viewed more as a 'night out', rather than a cauldron for rostered on supporters like the MCG is during the season.

The expansion strategy isn't really about crowds... it's about TV viewership and getting a bigger TV deal. I can't comment with any experience on Sydney culture or the NRL, but my understanding is that the NRL does disproportionately well from TV viewership versus game attendance...maybe that's because it's a product better viewed on TV than live, or maybe it's a reflection of Sydneysiders and the way they consume sport. Either way, the AFL managed to score a bumper TV rights deal and I suspect the existence of GC and GWS was a big factor. I don't image they see it as a failure. Not yet.

 

[kranky al]

The expansion strategy isn't really about crowds... it's about TV viewership and getting a bigger TV deal. I can't comment with any experience on Sydney culture or the NRL, but my understanding is that the NRL does disproportionately well from TV viewership versus game attendance...maybe that's because it's a product better viewed on TV than live, or maybe it's a reflection of Sydneysiders and the way they consume sport. Either way, the AFL managed to score a bumper TV rights deal and I suspect the existence of GC and GWS was a big factor. I don't image they see it as a failure. Not yet.

League is actually better to watch on tv.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

League is actually better to watch on tv.

Of course it is it doesn't have BT and co ruining the commentary. And Channel 7 camera angles and directing are diabolical.

 

[KissKiss]

Of course it is it doesn't have BT and co ruining the commentary. And Channel 7 camera angles and directing are diabolical.

I dunno some of the NRL commentators are shockingly bad. Its more an Australian thing than an individual sport thing. We just have crap standards for commentary

 

[kranky al]

Of course it is it doesn't have BT and co ruining the commentary. And Channel 7 camera angles and directing are diabolical.

Two questions :

1) Should we send BT to league as a trojan horse

2) League folk are notoriously thick as pigshit, but are they thick enough to have him ruin their game on telly?

3) if not do we need a good hard look at ourselves?

 

[kranky al]

I dunno some of the NRL commentators are shockingly bad. Its more an Australian thing than an individual sport thing. We just have crap standards for commentary

Instead of actual qualified broadcast journalists we have the good blokes club getting gigs, overseas sports players make so much money in their sport they retire when they have finished. The shitferbrains ex footy players with no job prospects after footy that are in the good blokes club get footy broadcast spots.

 

[HeathComeBack]

People are missing the point a bit here IMO, It's not even really a battle against Rugby League, it's just a battle for sporting interest in general, and there's a variety of reasons for this.

Being a Victorian living up here, the AFL vs NRL argument is far less prominent than you'd think. From suburb to suburb it varies in allegiance, but you're honestly more likely to find a bloke who couldn't give a rats about sport as a whole, which just isn't the case in other Australian states.

Aussies in general love winners, but in Sydney it's a different level. If you're not winning virtually nobody cares, and even if you are, nobody cares until the finals. There's not the same buzz throughout the season of riding the wave to a premiership or going to games, and that shows through crowd figures in both sports.

The Swans do pretty well crowd wise and I attend a few games with mates just to get back into the spirit of things, but I think even Sydney supporters would agree that it's definitely viewed more as a 'night out', rather than a cauldron for rostered on supporters like the MCG is during the season.

That fact is in Sydney that's what sport is...it's just another aspect of the entertainment industry. It's a different demographic up here and it's not an age thing either, it's just the way it is.

It comes back to Sydney's elitist view of things IMO. Every state has it's less desirable suburbs, but in Sydney there's a definite nastiness towards the west, and therefore you're not to behave as a 'westy' would and it's something I had to adjust to after moving here. I live in the North Shore and it's honestly pretty horrible what's said about people who are less fortunate, or live out west just by choice.

That behaviour comes into sport as well in terms of the passion. You can watch, but you can't be too invested. It's unfortunate and there's a variety of geographical reasons for it, but it's just the way things are up here. It's far more cut and dry in terms of suburban stereotypes than other cities than I've lived in, but again that's just personal experience.

Articles like in the OP never emanate from Victoria, its always from the north which i find interesting. Racing is another interesting comparison (also run by PVL). They have basically tried to destroy racing in Victoria with prizemoney, not for the interest of the sport but to "win" the non existent racing war.

 

[Freomaniac]

No.
Swans are the biggest club of any sport here and if the Giants wake up and go all in, instead of the
Chicken s**t easy way of cheap dollars from the south(Canberra), they will get there too.
There is no battle, just a really big pie that can be eaten by all.

All 18 teams played a part in that 4.5 billion dollar tv deal between 2025-31, even North Melbourne pitched in.