To be honest, I've always thought 10 was going to be a harder 14-day threshold. Once you hit 5, you're probably talking about having a few days of zero transmissions here and there, so not far off then getting to zero.Step 4 (est late November)
- target no new cases for 14 days
*This one I believe will be 2021 now unless things really plummet, which is at best extremely optimistic wishful thinking.
Also on the "what to do now", the gap between step 2 (daily ave 30-50 cases) and step 3 (daily ave 5< cases) is a massive one. I don't mind a "step 2.5" being announced Sunday, where the stuff which is more relevant for 30 cases a day than 10 a day is eased up on (ie outdoor activities)
But there are going to continue to be spot-outbreaks like chaddy, Kilmore, Hospitals and one outbreak is almost always going to be 5-20 cases, even with good contact tracing. NSW is in a similar holding pattern at the moment.
Summer will do a lot to help. The disease dies very quickly in hot, dry temperatures (recent data about how long it lasts on screens/surfaces was climate controlled). It's why most viruses like this spread in cooler, wetter climates (winter).