How Victoria is tracking for easing of restrictions - 19 Oct

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Saint

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Feb 1, 2006
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Victoria
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Essendon
Step 4 (est late November)
- target no new cases for 14 days

*This one I believe will be 2021 now unless things really plummet, which is at best extremely optimistic wishful thinking.



Also on the "what to do now", the gap between step 2 (daily ave 30-50 cases) and step 3 (daily ave 5< cases) is a massive one. I don't mind a "step 2.5" being announced Sunday, where the stuff which is more relevant for 30 cases a day than 10 a day is eased up on (ie outdoor activities)
To be honest, I've always thought 10 was going to be a harder 14-day threshold. Once you hit 5, you're probably talking about having a few days of zero transmissions here and there, so not far off then getting to zero.

But there are going to continue to be spot-outbreaks like chaddy, Kilmore, Hospitals and one outbreak is almost always going to be 5-20 cases, even with good contact tracing. NSW is in a similar holding pattern at the moment.

Summer will do a lot to help. The disease dies very quickly in hot, dry temperatures (recent data about how long it lasts on screens/surfaces was climate controlled). It's why most viruses like this spread in cooler, wetter climates (winter).
 
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Pessimistic

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Sep 13, 2000
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The team would be tempted to see how well the track and tracing Systems etc around this cluster perform before opening up anything remotely associated with it.

the worlds second wave respons has mixing at home (especially inside) right through it. Expect that continue, which won’t be so bad with such good weather coming through summer.

on the above post. My point was that 5 was always a ridiculous sounding target
 
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