How Victoria is tracking for easing of restrictions - 19 Oct

Hoops

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Our target is 5

The Trendline is based purely on the number for today v the 28th Sep not the current trajectory.

I'll update this daily
1602121810737.png


We need to have below 7 cases tomorrow (9th Oct) to stay below the blue.
 
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Evolved1

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Great idea.

What formula are you using, and what's the basis for using it?
 

Hoops

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Great idea.

What formula are you using, and what's the basis for using it?
For the baseline (blue) I calculate the percentage drop required each day from the 28th September over the three weeks to reach 5 on the 19th October
This calculates to a drop of ~7.1% day to day. I just divide the previous days number by ~1.071

I get that number through this formula

(starting average / finishing average)^(1 / no. of days)
= (20.9/5)^(1/21) = ~1.071

The tracking is just what it is .

The trending formula is basically the same as the baseline. Just replace finishing average to today's average with the no. of days being the days to date and extrapolate that out from today until the 19th October.

The basis for using this is that the best way to measure the data from day to day and how we are going is through rate of change. it's good to compare that against a baseline of the minimum rate required to get there.

I know what happens now until the 5th of October has no bearing on the 14 day average come the 19th. But I like to see how we are tracking.
 
Shouldn’t the heading be Melbourne not Victoria?

no, regional vic cannot enter covid-normal until melbourne is out of the woods

its unfair, but they are shackled to us
 

Rusty Brookes

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If anyone's interested, I've been extrapolating the data from the start of September and applying different curves to the data. The exponential curve is highly statistically significant and suggests we'll hit an average of five cases per day around the 18th of October. I redraw the curve each day based on the new data. I still have a linear prediction in there but I reckon that's no longer useful (it remains statistically significant but not to the same extent that the exponential curve does).

There is still the potential that we'll hit a floor in the data but today's number of nine is just one above what is predicted by the curve.
 

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I doubt a 14 day average of 5 is even realistically obtainable. Victoria is on track to have a third world economy before getting out of restrictions and to some level of normality as the premier is refusing to listen to anyone except his chosen advisors even though there are a growing number of experts who disagree with his policies.

Local council elections will provide an insight into the true public opinion, if Labor aligned candidates get soundly beaten Labor might change course.
 

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Not a dan thing, but you can’t make this up

box hill hospital ordering staff to not wear masks in the workplace Surely illegal?
 
Not a dan thing, but you can’t make this up

box hill hospital ordering staff to not wear masks in the workplace Surely illegal?

thats just odd

i could understand it if they said "we want you only wearing ones we supply" so that they know the *ers work, but if you're not being supplied with one surely a shitty mask is better than no mask

esp as most who enter a hospital right now being asked to mask up (where possible)
 

Pessimistic

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Thing is at 5-10 average just one cluster can make a big difference. I could see it staying at the 5-10 mark right up till december

surely we go local lock downs?
 
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Pessimistic

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thats just odd

i could understand it if they said "we want you only wearing ones we supply" so that they know the f***ers work, but if you're not being supplied with one surely a shitty mask is better than no mask

esp as most who enter a hospital right now being asked to mask up (where possible)

Victorian state govt employees wear one at work at all times, public visiting offices too. Surely at this stage the risk is much less than in a hospital?
 
Victorian state govt employees wear one at work at all times, public visiting offices too. Surely at this stage the risk is much less than in a hospital?

dont disagree

probably some plonker in eastern health who didnt want patients to get worried or some stupid s**t like that
 
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I doubt a 14 day average of 5 is even realistically obtainable. Victoria is on track to have a third world economy before getting out of restrictions and to some level of normality as the premier is refusing to listen to anyone except his chosen advisors even though there are a growing number of experts who disagree with his policies.

Local council elections will provide an insight into the true public opinion, if Labor aligned candidates get soundly beaten Labor might change course.

I think once it becames unattainable, Dan will lie and pretend he accomplished it by "losing" some tests for example. Its got zero to do with practicality and 100% to do with perception
 
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People should stop getting tested. If you are not in a demographic they can be harmed by this virus why would you get tested for? If you do happen to test positive they will just hold it against everyone.
 

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If they bring in an 11-21 day self isolate its a step forward in sophistication. ie you test after 11 and can stop isolating with a negative test. If you refuse or are positive, its 21 days.
If they keep the no fault approach and can give a fast result, pay expenses to self isolate, it should go a long way.


Intersted to see what they reccommend for Grand final meeting protocols. It would be preferable for port to pay brisbane as those crowds can meet and celebrate
 

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Going out on a limb here - we might touch the 5 average once in the next two weeks. To have it for 14 days running might not happen for several months

we are backto June/July and have swapped shops for schools.

we don’t have a total disconnect between govt and people like in the UK, but we need to be careful
 
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Going out on a limb here - we might touch the 5 average once in the next two weeks. To have it for 14 days running might not happen for several months

we are backto June/July and have swapped shops for schools.

we don’t have a total disconnect between govt and people like in the UK, but we need to be careful
Won’t be touching rolling average 5 for quite a while, maybe not this year, and who said we had to have it for 14 days straight? I’ve never heard of that. You might be getting mixed up with a 14 day rolling average which isn’t the same thing as having that average for 14 days in a row.
 

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Victoria is having less daily cases than NSW at the moment.

I think if the number (14-day average) settles at around 10, once mystery cases are near-zero they'll change the rules for re-opening.

Better to be on the cautious side than the reckless side, though.

Summer will really knock this thing on the head.

Already the strains getting around in the northern hemisphere are far less deadly than the initial strains of the virus were. Deaths per confirmed case have plummeted. Nth hemisphere will have an awful winter because they're going to have so many cases, but I'm not sure we'll see more deaths than the first wave which appears to have had a lot more deadly strains, particularly the one which went from Nth Italy to New York.
 

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Won’t be touching rolling average 5 for quite a while, maybe not this year, and who said we had to have it for 14 days straight? I’ve never heard of that. You might be getting mixed up with a 14 day rolling average which isn’t the same thing as having that average for 14 days in a row.

Lets not argue over something which might not happen. The govt should be allowed to backtrack surely though.

It seems to have stabilised at a 7 day average of 12 ish for 7 days now: were that to continue another seven days, surely thats everything in the target apart from the number (11-12 not 5)

The UKs new lockdowns have in home visits as the centrepiece. It seems a common theme around the world
 
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Going out on a limb here - we might touch the 5 average once in the next two weeks. To have it for 14 days running might not happen for several months

we are backto June/July and have swapped shops for schools.

we don’t have a total disconnect between govt and people like in the UK, but we need to be careful
Won’t be touching rolling average 5 for quite a while, maybe not this year, and who said we had to have it for 14 days straight? I’ve never heard of that. You might be getting mixed up with a 14 day rolling average which isn’t the same thing as having that average for 14 days in a row.
Victoria is having less daily cases than NSW at the moment.

I think if the number (14-day average) settles at around 10, once mystery cases are near-zero they'll change the rules for re-opening.

Better to be on the cautious side than the reckless side, though.

Summer will really knock this thing on the head.

Already the strains getting around in the northern hemisphere are far less deadly than the initial strains of the virus were. Deaths per confirmed case have plummeted. Nth hemisphere will have an awful winter because they're going to have so many cases, but I'm not sure we'll see more deaths than the first wave which appears to have had a lot more deadly strains, particularly the one which went from Nth Italy to New York.
Lets not argue over something which might not happen. The govt should be allowed to backtrack surely though.

It seems to have stabilised at a 7 day average of 12 ish for 7 days now: were that to continue another seven days, surely thats everything in the target apart from the number (11-12 not 5)

The UKs new lockdowns have in home visits as the centrepiece. It seems a common theme around the world

if you go back to the roadmap (and i'll only talk metro because thats where the problems are at) the next two steps are:

Step 3 (initially est to be around Oct 26)
- target 14 day ave of 5 or less cases a day
- target 5 or less unknown origin cases over last 14 days

These were not hard targets though. If the numbers were boosted by isolated situations which raised the average (ie aged care numbers in particular), this bar may still be accepted. the key is the focus on the community transmission numbers.

*I still think this step is achievable once we wash through the chaddy/box hill hospital outbreaks. It appears we have done that mostly, so hopefully within the next 2-3 weeks we will be close to the 5< number


Step 4 (est late November)
- target no new cases for 14 days

*This one I believe will be 2021 now unless things really plummet, which is at best extremely optimistic wishful thinking.



Also on the "what to do now", the gap between step 2 (daily ave 30-50 cases) and step 3 (daily ave 5< cases) is a massive one. I don't mind a "step 2.5" being announced Sunday, where the stuff which is more relevant for 30 cases a day than 10 a day is eased up on (ie outdoor activities)
 
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