How Victoria is tracking for easing of restrictions - 19 Oct

[Saint]

Step 4 (est late November)
- target no new cases for 14 days

*This one I believe will be 2021 now unless things really plummet, which is at best extremely optimistic wishful thinking.



Also on the "what to do now", the gap between step 2 (daily ave 30-50 cases) and step 3 (daily ave 5< cases) is a massive one. I don't mind a "step 2.5" being announced Sunday, where the stuff which is more relevant for 30 cases a day than 10 a day is eased up on (ie outdoor activities)

To be honest, I've always thought 10 was going to be a harder 14-day threshold. Once you hit 5, you're probably talking about having a few days of zero transmissions here and there, so not far off then getting to zero.

But there are going to continue to be spot-outbreaks like chaddy, Kilmore, Hospitals and one outbreak is almost always going to be 5-20 cases, even with good contact tracing. NSW is in a similar holding pattern at the moment.

Summer will do a lot to help. The disease dies very quickly in hot, dry temperatures (recent data about how long it lasts on screens/surfaces was climate controlled). It's why most viruses like this spread in cooler, wetter climates (winter).

 

[Pessimistic]

So, 5 in a city of 5 million. 'things more insignificant than melbournes infection rate'?

Surely 'utopia' will do this someday

 

[Leeda]

So, 5 in a city of 5 million. 'things more insignificant than melbournes infection rate'?

Surely 'utopia' will do this someday

you are dubiously repetitious.. like the smart arse and wandering around the garden...

 

[Pessimistic]

The team would be tempted to see how well the track and tracing Systems etc around this cluster perform before opening up anything remotely associated with it.

the worlds second wave respons has mixing at home (especially inside) right through it. Expect that continue, which won’t be so bad with such good weather coming through summer.

on the above post. My point was that 5 was always a ridiculous sounding target

 

[maskmcgee]

Well Richmond's win confirms they'll be no major lifting of restrictions until next week, to avoid a mass gathering next Saturday if Richmond win the premiership. 100% garuntee Port v. Brisbane GF would of see restrictions lifted, any Vic team in it would see restrictions held down until next week regardless.

 

[sammm]

Chairman Dan or the Tzar or Victoria wont let us do much m from tomorrow even if there is only 1 new case.

 

[Pessimistic]

Chairman Dan or the Tzar or Victoria wont let us do much m from tomorrow even if there is only 1 new case.

Its all about making a guaranteed open up (and stay open) for retail business in the Christmas sales period. I think a lot of retail is on board really.

 

[HTT]

Should end up reaching the mark a couple of days before the original target date of October 26. Should’ve stuck to their guns.

 

[deskc]

Wonderful effort from Andrews to get Victoria back on top of things. Well done