Prediction How Will The Cats Fare in 2025?

[Pure_Ownage]

It’s not that it can’t be us. It is a matter of probability this far out and at this stage we are a low probability to win it. I’d say less than 10% (bookies odds have it about 15%).

Depends on how you rank probabilities but I dont entirely disagree.
But remember what this year is.
Adelaide are not premiership proven.
Gc have never even played finals.
The dogs are soft (ie they always get to the bottom rungs of the 8 and then lose finals).
Hawthorn haven't played finals for years since they turned over the list.
Freo have a great list but were so bad last year they nearly sacked the coach.
Gws have an outstanding list but are probably going to have to go the long way without any home finals.
Collingwood are premiership calibre but look like they are hitting the wall Sydney last year style and more importantly they are the team Scott has a really good recent record against.
There's really no one other than Brisbane (who are in shaky form) and Collingwood who are proven premiership calibre.
But there's a really decent chance a non premiership calibre team this year wins it. Could just as easily be us as anyone given the experience we have.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Will we likely make top 4 if we drop one? Or need to win them all. Seems with so many teams close behind us one would be likely to win all 4 and pip us or are there too many match ups to make that likely?

So long as we get decent % against Port ess and Richmond. None of the teams below us can realistically catch our % and so if we lose one and win the rest we should still be 4th (there's an outside chance it would be 5th but it would likely require gc to beat gws and win all their games). But we can't get to top 2 if we drop one.

That said if coll drop to 2nd it doesn't matter if we are 2nd or 3rd as we play the same venue anyway.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

3 matches before ours are from the other 8 sides in contention. So with 3 going to lose we need to get it done vs Port and take ground on whoever slips up.

 

[goyoucatters]

I don't think we're a massive chance of taking it out this season. But I also agree there's not really any stand-out teams that are miles ahead of us. I get that we've chalked up multiple losses to the Lions and Giants in 2025. But I actually think that our path to a flag would involve us having to knock off at least one of them throughout the finals series. So rather than fearing that pathway, I'm actually ready to welcome it.

We'd need a fair bit to go right. More than a couple of other teams, I figure. But we're not without some shot at it all and the last thing we'd want to be doing is hoping against hope that we avoid certain match-ups. So I'm looking forward to the prospect of beating 'the best' to be the best.

#goyoucats

 

[Mr Meow]

No premiership contender should want to avoid teams, BUT.....there's a solid chance GWS miss out on finals and Brisbane end up stuck in 5th-8th. We could still play either of them, but a run of Collingwood, Gold Coast and Adelaide at the G is perfectly possible. Maybe even likely?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No premiership contender should want to avoid teams, BUT.....there's a solid chance GWS miss out on finals and Brisbane end up stuck in 5th-8th. We could still play either of them, but a run of Collingwood, Gold Coast and Adelaide at the G is perfectly possible. Maybe even likely?

Honestly if Brisbane finishing 5th or lower and the Giants finish 9th our chances of winning a flag go up massively.

An ageing Collingwood plus Adelaide or gc at the mcg (when neither have won recent finals there) and hawks/freo and Adelaide bulldogs that always tend to fail in finals don't worry me that much.
We need to be way better than we are but this is a Bradbury year if ever I've seen one.

 

[Del216647]

Honestly if Brisbane finishing 5th or lower and the Giants finish 9th our chances of winning a flag go up massively.

An ageing Collingwood plus Adelaide or gc at the mcg (when neither have won recent finals there) and hawks/freo and Adelaide bulldogs that always tend to fail in finals don't worry me that much.
We need to be way better than we are but this is a Bradbury year if ever I've seen one.

I agree, with the exception of the Dogs. They worry me, their mids are elite and will worry us.

Should have beaten us at Geelong if not for bad kicking. At one point in the last they had ten more shots on goal.

Although I must admit I prefer our chances against them on the G where we can get our transition game running and hopefully score heavily from turnover.

But our weakness (midfield) is their strength, so I think along with GWS and Lions, they can pose a problem. I actually think we would give a better account of ourselves on the G against all three, where our strengths can really be maximised at that venue.

 

[Vdubs]

I agree, with the exception of the Dogs. They worry me, their mids are elite and will worry us.

Should have beaten us at Geelong if not for bad kicking. At one point in the last they had ten more shots on goal.

Although I must admit I prefer our chances against them on the G where we can get our transition game running and hopefully score heavily from turnover.

But our weakness (midfield) is their strength, so I think along with GWS and Lions, they can pose a problem. I actually think we would give a better account of ourselves on the G against all three, where our strengths can really be maximised at that venue.

Agree- their weapons are huge- no team has matchups for Naughton- Darcy, and Bont-Richards- Liber.

 

[PzBlinky]

Agree- their weapons are huge- no team has matchups for Naughton- Darcy, and Bont-Richards- Liber.

It's interesting that 2 of the last 3 times (this year and Gather Round last year) we've played them, they've won the midfield battle but we've gotten enough ball forward to convert, thanks largely to their sub-par backline. Their potency up forward makes that a little harder, but not impossible to beat.

GWS are a much trickier team for us.

 

[Vdubs]

It's interesting that 2 of the last 3 times (this year and Gather Round last year) we've played them, they've won the midfield battle but we've gotten enough ball forward to convert, thanks largely to their sub-par backline. Their potency up forward makes that a little harder, but not impossible to beat.

GWS are a much trickier team for us.

As are Brisbane, and no Darcy?

 

[supahoops]

We will finish top two and likely in rude health, 3 good games in succession I’m not confident of but couldn’t be better placed.

 

[CoolCat75]

The Sydney game could be the difference between 5th and 2nd, if you run the ladder predictor

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Sydney game is huge. Collingwood are well coached and experienced but i dont feel they have the weapons and I think their gamestyle suits our gamestyle. Finish 2nd or 3rd and get Collingwood in the first week and we are in a great spot. I can see us getting a 'soft' gf opponent ala Sydney 2024 if we get there. The door is wide open if we are good enough.

 

[Del216647]

Top 2 has opened up again. The Freo-Lions game is critical for us.

It goes without saying we can only control what we can control. If we can't beat Swans then we aren't good enough anyway.

We will beat the Swans.

 

[PzBlinky]

As are Brisbane, and no Darcy?

Yeah, that's not to say we couldn't lose to any of them - obviously none are going to be cake-walks. Just the way I rank the difficulty of those teams for us would be: 1 - GWS, 2 - Lions, 3 - Dogs.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Top 2 has opened up again. The Freo-Lions game is critical for us.

It goes without saying we can only control what we can control. If we can't beat Swans then we aren't good enough anyway.

We will beat the Swans.

I agree. I think it's unlikely coll beat both Hawks and Adelaide and I think it's unlikely bris win in Perth. If both of those things happen 2nd is ours if we win all our games so long as we keep gc behind us. If gws beat the Suns (which they will have to to make the 8) that does us a favour.

 

[Del216647]

I agree. I think it's unlikely coll beat both Hawks and Adelaide and I think it's unlikely bris win in Perth. If both of those things happen 2nd is ours if we win all our games so long as we keep gc behind us. If gws beat the Suns (which they will have to to make the 8) that does us a favour.

Absolutely. On current form Pies won't beat both (possibly either). If Hawks can play like they did against Crows, I think they'll roll the Pies. Even if they can't, I'd expect Crows to beat them a week later.

Then as you say we just need Freo to do us a solid and they will have everything to play for on their home deck. I think second is very much in play for us now.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Absolutely. On current form Pies won't beat both (possibly either). If Hawks can play like they did against Crows, I think they'll roll the Pies. Even if they can't, I'd expect Crows to beat them a week later.

Then as you say we just need Freo to do us a solid and they will have everything to play for on their home deck. I think second is very much in play for us now.

It is. We just can't afford to drop any game because the Suns could pinch 2nd by beating port and essendon if we do. Although if we rack up % this week and next it insulates us from the Suns winning big in round 24-it would make us safe so long as we dont slip up against Sydney..
I dont care about finishing 3rd if Pies are 2nd but I want 2nd if it means avoiding a trip north.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Premiership windows.

R16:



R21:



Nothing's changed. Have maintained a OFF and DEF shown to be determinant of premiership success, among some other candidates. The defence focus from chicken little's unfounded.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Premiership windows.

R16:

View attachment 2386089

R21:

View attachment 2386090

Nothing's changed. Have maintained a OFF and DEF shown to be determinant of premiership success, among some other candidates. The defence focus from chicken little's unfounded.

Funny how we finally start playing some shit teams, get some key personnel back, and the defence seems okay.

By no means great, and not a huge strength, but good enough.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Funny how we finally start playing some shit teams, get some key personnel back, and the defence seems okay.

Not great. Not a huge strength.
...but good enough.

Which was why earlier editions of this metric, which is highly predictive of the eventual premiers, was skewed. We'd played a disproportionate number of quality teams while other clubs had a profile that was factoring in games against the flotsam and jetsam we'd yet to play.

Now that it's all mostly out in the wash and there's little football left we're where the metric says we are, and that's among the contenders.

 

[iameviljez]

Yeah, that's not to say we couldn't lose to any of them - obviously none are going to be cake-walks. Just the way I rank the difficulty of those teams for us would be: 1 - GWS, 2 - Lions, 3 - Dogs.

Yep. We were very, very lucky to beat the Dogs earlier in the year - basically they just didn't kick straight, and ran out of petrol tickets in the last ten minutes.... plus some tall bloke called Darcy was missing.

As much as those three sides are all brittle, and all very much prone to off days, they all bat pretty deep through the middle in particular. We can absolutely beat them, but if both teams play to their absolute best, they win.

 

[Seeds]

Depends on how you rank probabilities but I dont entirely disagree.
But remember what this year is.
Adelaide are not premiership proven.
Gc have never even played finals.
The dogs are soft (ie they always get to the bottom rungs of the 8 and then lose finals).
Hawthorn haven't played finals for years since they turned over the list.
Freo have a great list but were so bad last year they nearly sacked the coach.
Gws have an outstanding list but are probably going to have to go the long way without any home finals.
Collingwood are premiership calibre but look like they are hitting the wall Sydney last year style and more importantly they are the team Scott has a really good recent record against.
There's really no one other than Brisbane (who are in shaky form) and Collingwood who are proven premiership calibre.
But there's a really decent chance a non premiership calibre team this year wins it. Could just as easily be us as anyone given the experience we have.

This is a weird post. You dont need to have won a premiership to be a premiership contender. Ps. And if you do you are also missing geelong in your analysis.

Lots of good sides this year. I see it as one of the toughest flags to win in quite a while. Usually there is 2 -3 teams who can win it. This year there is about 6.

 

[Seeds]

We are very well primed this year to win it. This could change but right now the injury gods are now working in our favour and we have an easy draw heading into finals to enable us to focus on game plan and being primed when we need to be.

Just need to not choke in the sydney game.

 

[God Mode]

We are very well primed this year to win it. This could change but right now the injury gods are now working in our favour and we have an easy draw heading into finals to enable us to focus on game plan and being primed when we need to be.

Just need to not choke in the sydney game.

Dangerfield in the middle is the wildcard for me. I'm keen to see what our plan is with utilising him there come finals.
We've used him sparingly there all year, which has hopefully kept him fresh, but also means teams won't have enough time to plan for it.
If he can play 70-30 mid-fwd and produce near his best, it'll be a real game changer.