Prediction How will we go in finals?

[kulak]

What do you expect over the next few weeks - how will our season end?

 

[kulak]

Some data.

Ladder for top 8 clashes only:

Team        F    A    Pts P  PPG  %
Adelaide    1909 1431 28  10 2.8  133
Sydney      1216 1161 20   8 2.5  105
GWS Giants  1549 1434 26  11 2.4  108
Geelong     1552 1265 18   9 2.0  123
Richmond    1324 1173 16   8 2.0  113
West Coast  1367 1411 16   9 1.8   97
Essendon    1440 1356 12   8 1.5  106
Port        1244 1231  8   9 0.9  101

Ladder for main contender clashes (top 4 + Sydney) only:

Team        F    A    Pts P  PPG  %
Sydney      429  400  16  5  3.2  107
Adelaide    532  404  12  5  2.4  132
Geelong     478  465  14  6  2.3  103
GWS Giants  529  616  10  7  1.4  86
Richmond    340  423   4  5  0.8  80

Here is what the top 8 ladder looked like last year.

Team        F    A    Pts P  PPG  %
Geelong     1582 1298 28  9  3.1  122
Sydney      1438 1114 16  8  2.0  129
GWS Giants  1620 1290 16  8  2.0  126
Hawthorn    1367 1250 16  8  2.0  109
Bulldogs    1226 1156 12  7  1.7  106
Adelaide    1592 1364 12  8  1.5  117
West Coast  1110 1130 12  8  1.5   98

 

[kulak]

Some more stats.

Contested Possession Differential - 2017

Rank Team     Cont Poss Diff
1    Cats     8.3
3    Crows    6
4    Giants   5.6
5    Power    5
7    Swans    3
10   Bombers  1
12   Tigers  -1.6
15   Eagles  -5.6

Contested Possession Differential - 2016

Rank Team     Cont Poss Diff
1    Bulldogs 16.5
2    Cats     14
3    Swans    11.4
4    Giants   10.5
7    Crows     2.4
9    Eagles    0.4
18   Hawks   -19.6

 

[Huntercrow]

We have lead the field for all bar 3 weeks. We lost our last 2 games and still finished top. Percentage is far and above anything Sydney or Geelong could manage. Our forwards have been rested and the mids are chalking up some impressive numbers. Yeah I know Sydney are coming but we are already there. The premiership is ours to lose.

And I don't think anyone including Buddy and his bunch of cola enthused Nancy boys can do anything about it!!

 

[John Who]

No reason why we can't go all the way. From a ladder and stats perspective. From performances against other top 8 perspective. From our general improvements in all fields. We've put ourselves at the best possible chance of getting the Cup. The QF should tell us how hungry we really are though!

 

[Huntercrow]

But seriously I think we'll do well. Despite 2 losses in a row our form has been good. With the weeks rest a few players just need to refocus. Then it's game on.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

The question in the OP is how do I expect us to go in finals. Well, considering all evidence, I expect the club to go through finals undefeated and win the flag. Anything else will be a failure considering the season thus far.

We smashed 2 of the other contenders last time we met them, although it was early in the season.
We beat Geelong last time we met and there is no chance of facing them at the potato.
We beat Sydney in just about every statistic apart from Goal Accuracy. The game was lost on our behalf, not won on theirs.

We smashed Port and Essendon last time we played them.

West Coast are a little bit of an unknown, but if we play them it will be in Adelaide or at the G.

Win the flag, or seriously throw the axe around chopping up the people who continually fail in finals and big games.

 

[Golumless]

I'm confident we'll win it. Too much has gone our way this season to think this is the classic preliminary final loss... mind you it's likely the grand final winner will be decided from our preliminary if the Swans make it.

 

[earlsta]

We win.
However need to be unpredictable to win.
I think we will be... honestly believe our last two games were just little tests, we did things we'd normally not do.. especially against Eagles.

How much time did Greenwood spend in the centre square against Sydney? Will be interesting to see his Heat Map for that game.
Also think Seedsman will play a serious role in finals, he's looking very very good.. a damaging player. 630m gained last game. If he's linking up with our inside mids then we have another avenue. Also 190cm + Greenwood at 190cm. Both good aerially.. gives us more options.

We cannot be predictable or we won't win the whole thing.

 

[Scorpus]

I've gone the classic Crows option.

Prove me wrong, 2017 Adelaide

 

[Danoz]

We win.
However need to be unpredictable to win.
I think we will be... honestly believe our last two games were just little tests, we did things we'd normally not do.. especially against Eagles.

How much time did Greenwood spend in the centre square against Sydney? Will be interesting to see his Heat Map for that game.
Also think Seedsman will play a serious role in finals, he's looking very very good.. a damaging player. 630m gained last game. If he's linking up with our inside mids then we have another avenue. Also 190cm + Greenwood at 190cm. Both good aerially.. gives us more options.

We cannot be predictable or we won't win the whole thing.

 

[AmericanCrow]

Win
Win
Win

 

[Alwaysacrow]

I'm don't want to get too excited yet but I'm a lot more confident than I was in 2012.

 

[Iron]

I'm picturing a 2012 style capitulation to GWS, dominant win over Port. Prelim against Geelong in which we play ok but lose.

This is me protecting myself. Win Q1 and my thoughts will change.

 

[Glenno23]

This is the year we have to win 2 finals. Preferably we'll win our first final too and get the monkey off our back and straight through to a home prelim

Anything short of a GF is a failure

Let's just win!

 

[radiojake]

If Adelaide win against GWS and Richmond lose to Geelong but win theit semi final, it'll mean that Adelaide will have played every possible team in a finals match

Quite remarkable really considering the match ups of old vfl teams that are still yet to happen

A few ifs and buts for that to happen but not unlikey

 

[rezagun]

Anything less than a premiership after the year weve had will be a failure.
Some teams like port, west coast, richmond and essendon are just happy they made finals.
Were on a different level along with gws, sydney and geelong.
We have shown were the real deal we must take our chances and deliver on the big stage.
Our players will be hungry.
Premiership.

 

[StonesThrow]

I think we're capable but also prone to a game like last week or the Collingwood first half. Can we play our best for 3 games in a row against the best with loads of pressure? I'm thinking unlikely. But we're more likely than we've been in a while at least.

 

[1990crow]

Have to win week 1 and get that home prelim.
If we do that I'd be confident of making the GF where anything can happen.

 

[Betts are off]

Anything can happen in finals, but there is no reason to believe we wont be in every game if not the clear favorite. I'm not going to go as far as saying we have it in the bag, but I will admit I will be filthy if we didn't make it all the way through to GF day.

 

[JPetro83]

Im going by what the crows ALWAYS do in finals when they give themselves a great chance... hence why I clicked "prelim final loss"

 

[Scorpus]

If Adelaide win against GWS and Richmond lose to Geelong but win theit semi final, it'll mean that Adelaide will have played every possible team in a finals match

Quite remarkable really considering the match ups of old vfl teams that are still yet to happen

A few ifs and buts for that to happen but not unlikey

Except Gold Coast

 

[BunjiMac]

If we really believe, we can win it.

 

[GreyCrow]

I am on the train. Premiers. I refuse to believe our form shows anything less. I believe.

 

[Coopers]

We finished top.
We have rested players in preparation.
We have relatively few injuries.
We have a large number of in form players.
We're the best team.

Now or never...