Prediction How will we go in finals?

[Mismatched]

I've never understood how this can happen to competitive sportspeople! Over-arousal sure, but not taking it seriously...I don't get it!

It's a massive final in front of 50+ thousand screaming fans...if you can't rock up for that something is badly wrong!!

Certainly for a final, I agree, there should be no way you're not coming out to play. But we play a sport where if you're a few percent off your game, you're in trouble. If the players go in even half subconsciously feeling like they've got this game won before it starts, we could be in trouble.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Certainly for a final, I agree, there should be no way you're not coming out to play. But we play a sport where if you're a few percent off your game, you're in trouble. If the players go in even half subconsciously feeling like they've got this game won before it starts, we could be in trouble.

Works the other way too.

If we're too fired up to do well then we can end up with all our mids stupidly barging in for the football, desperate to win it, chasing the footy. Then get cut to ribbons on the outside with no midfield structure. They waltz it around and it looks like we're not trying. We ARE trying, just dumbly.

Hopefully the experience of 2015 and 2016 will count for something here and we'll enter the game in the right headspace.

 

[CrowBloke]

RE:

I've never understood how this can happen to competitive sportspeople! Over-arousal sure, but not taking it seriously...I don't get it!
It's a massive final in front of 50+ thousand screaming fans...if you can't rock up for that something is badly wrong!!

I agree with this:

Its a very fine line, instead of letting youngsters get nervous and expend wasted energy the mantra is keep calm and go through the process.

In 1998, NM had won 11 games straight and beaten us in the Minor Round. They came out breathing fire and smoke, absolutely dominating to half-time in every respect except one --- the scoreboard.
6.15 to 4.3, 21 scoring shots to 7, which reminds me now of our horror kicking against Sydney in Round 22. If NM had kicked straight, GF over. They win.

Come half-time, the adrenalin wore off and was replaced by tiredness made worse by the Crows kicking 5.8 to 2.0 in the Third.

It's a fine line indeed --- Pyke's renowned calm will stabilise our blokes without chilling them out. As supporters, we're all on edge, trying to temper our hopes with previous disappointments. My gut feeling is that this group has got what it takes to win its next three games, but whichever team wants it the most and makes it happen will go top (eg Crows in 98, Bulldogs last year).

 

[hey shorty]

We will know by quarter time Thursday night how we are going to go. Unlike last year we are playing a good opponent who can rip you to pieces if you're a bit off.

People forget we were being comfortably beaten nearing half time in r1 this year and they're a stronger side on paper this week.

If we get off to a good start i don't believe they will catch us.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

RE:


I agree with this:

In 1998, NM had won 11 games straight and beaten us in the Minor Round. They came out breathing fire and smoke, absolutely dominating to half-time in every respect except one --- the scoreboard.
6.15 to 4.3, 21 scoring shots to 7, which reminds me now of our horror kicking against Sydney in Round 22. If NM had kicked straight, GF over. They win.

Come half-time, the adrenalin wore off and was replaced by tiredness made worse by the Crows kicking 5.8 to 2.0 in the Third.

It's a fine line indeed --- Pyke's renowned calm will stabilise our blokes without chilling them out. As supporters, we're all on edge, trying to temper our hopes with previous disappointments. My gut feeling is that this group has got what it takes to win its next three games, but whichever team wants it the most and makes it happen will go top (eg Crows in 98, Bulldogs last year).

Awesome post.

 

[Carmo]

Anyone checked our record after longish breaks? 8 days, the bye, that sort of thing? Gut feel is it's not good.

We're also not good when the slipperiness is just in that goldilocks zone, not slippery enough for us to play wet weather footy, just slippery enough to make our take possession game and no over-the-back-of-the-contest plans stuff up.

Apart from those its full steam ahead for the crows.

 

[Scorpus]

Anyone checked our record after longish breaks? 8 days, the bye, that sort of thing? Gut feel is it's not good.

We're also not good when the slipperiness is just in that goldilocks zone, not slippery enough for us to play wet weather footy, just slippery enough to make our take possession game and no over-the-back-of-the-contest plans stuff up.

Apart from those its full steam ahead for the crows.

All our games after the bye:

1. Hawthorn at home, 2017: LOSS
2. North Melbourne final at home, 2016: WIN
3. North Melbourne at home, 2016: WIN
4. Hawthorn at home, 2015: LOSS
5. Collingwood at home, 2014: WIN
6. Gold Coast away, 2013: WIN
7. St Kilda at home, 2012: WIN
8. Fremantle at home, 2011: LOSS
9. Essendon at home, 2011: LOSS

5 wins, 4 losses

 

[PCORF]

We will know by quarter time Thursday night how we are going to go. Unlike last year we are playing a good opponent who can rip you to pieces if you're a bit off.

People forget we were being comfortably beaten nearing half time in r1 this year and they're a stronger side on paper this week.

If we get off to a good start i don't believe they will catch us.

I don't feel all that confident that we can do it Thursday night, we have to deal with the pressure of favoritism, the pressure of our past finals failures which could spring doubts into the minds of players. But we'll be mad about this shall we lose and we are going to bounce back in the semi and obliterate West Coast or Port Adelaide and if we were to meet Richmond in the preliminary final I think we're a very good chance to beat them indeed. The winner of Geelong vs Richmond could be very crucial to our chances this year.

 

[hey shorty]

I don't feel all that confident that we can do it Thursday night, we have to deal with the pressure of favoritism, the pressure of our past finals failures which could spring doubts into the minds of players. But we'll be mad about this shall we lose and we are going to bounce back in the semi and obliterate West Coast or Port Adelaide and if we were to meet Richmond in the preliminary final I think we're a very good chance to beat them indeed. The winner of Geelong vs Richmond could be very crucial to our chances this year.

First finals haven't been our issue, I'm confident we can win and win well

 

[John Who]

All our games after the bye:

1. Hawthorn at home, 2017: LOSS
2. North Melbourne final at home, 2016: WIN
3. North Melbourne at home, 2016: WIN
4. Hawthorn at home, 2015: LOSS
5. Collingwood at home, 2014: WIN
6. Gold Coast away, 2013: WIN
7. St Kilda at home, 2012: WIN
8. Fremantle at home, 2011: LOSS
9. Essendon at home, 2011: LOSS

5 wins, 4 losses

Nice post-bye stats! A shame, it doesn't count for much as we're unlikely to meet any of these teams!

 

[John Who]

I don't feel all that confident that we can do it Thursday night, we have to deal with the pressure of favoritism, the pressure of our past finals failures which could spring doubts into the minds of players. But we'll be mad about this shall we lose and we are going to bounce back in the semi and obliterate West Coast or Port Adelaide and if we were to meet Richmond in the preliminary final I think we're a very good chance to beat them indeed. The winner of Geelong vs Richmond could be very crucial to our chances this year.

I think the issue of favoritism isn't quite as obvious this year, since the top 4 teams all ended up on 2 points differential from one another (1 draw the difference)! Also, the issues surrounding Sloane and Jacobs to dampen our preparations have lowered expectations somewhat.

 

[Rotayjay]

So what will it be? St Kilda 2005 or GWS 2017? We match up well on the Giants. But it'd be silly to suggest that Sloaney being absent/not 100% right, Sauce being understandably affected, and GWS' ins won't make this hard. I think it will be a relatively close one.

Crows by 10 points.

 

[ams4crows]

I don't think it'll be close... 20 points plus to either side.

I'm still 50/50 only because of what has happened in the past in these types of situations.

 

[beartoo]

I am feeling the classic AFC prelim finals loss.

Haven't moved too far from my thoughts on Pyke since early-mid 2016. We have a beautiful game plan, but not sure we have a real winners mindset when it counts.

For the sake of the players nerves and mine, we need to be 8 goals up entering the last quarter of every final. If one goes down to the wire I'm not expecting us to hold our nerve. I won't believe otherwise until it happens in a game that counts!

This team has a harder edge than any since our premiership years. They are a driven lot and determined to succeed. If we are beaten in this finals season it will be by a better team on the day or night--not because we lack intestinal fortitude.

 

[beartoo]

Not that bet, but I collected big wins on us losing to the roos, dees and hawks this year.. and I will be sure to clean up prelim final day if we lose. always cover my backside I do when it comes to the crows.. yes im disappointed we lose but I at least want to make some money out of it.

Considering our win/loss record this year, did you make money betting against us? The Roos and Ds were ballsy bets to be sure to be sure.

 

[JPetro83]

Considering our win/loss record this year, did you make money betting against us? The Roos and Ds were ballsy bets to be sure to be sure.

Not all games, the Geelong game in Geelong when the cats were 2.20 I made cash on that, the swans game in round 22 when the swans were 2.25 I made cash on that. don't get me wrong I lost a bit but I won more.. still way out in front in 2017.

 

[Large 1]

Is it just me, or is anyone else worried about North Korea.

I mean it would be just our luck that when we are on the eve of winning a flag, nuclear war breaks out!

F##k you Kim Jong-un! Do NOT f##k this up for us!!!

 

[Apsaalooke]

Is it just me, or is anyone else worried about North Korea.

I mean it would be just our luck that when we are on the eve of winning a flag, nuclear war breaks out!

F##k you Kim Jong-un! Do NOT f##k this up for us!!!

No problem. The US have planted a mini nuclear device in his head that will go off the millisecond he decides to push the red button

 

[Huntercrow]

View attachment 412378

No problem. The US have planted a mini nuclear device in his head that will go off the millisecond he decides to push the red button

It looks like it has already happened.

 

[Apsaalooke]

It looks like it has already happened.

Simulation by a paid professional actor

 

[PCORF]

With Sloane out it's the Giants game to lose now. Everyone must lift. We have not been a successful finals team for a very long time. We have to overcome many things, our poor Thursday night home record, dealing with favoritism, composure when it really matters, trying to make our first Grand Final from the top 2 position. Although I think we'll lose to the Giants, but we are going to be so furious about this loss we will be inspired and bounce back and make the GF and be there in all 4 weeks of the finals. The last 2 premiership teams (2015, 2016) both played in all 4 weeks of the finals.