Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 4

[Chief]

This thread is Continued in Part 5:

Vic - How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 5

Continued From Part 4: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/how-would-you-rate-daniel-andrews-performance-as-victorian-premier-part-4.1257360/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[mill204]

Which is why I asked if anyone had complete numbers.

Federal treasury estimates were short between $7 and $9 billion in the September quarter alone, with 80% of the loss coming from Victoria. At the lower end of the scale, that works out to a cost of $5.6 billion to the economy.

Up to the end of June, 16,000 people had been quarantined in Melbourne in the hotel program.

That works out to a raw cost of $350,000 for every man, woman and child.

If you have more accurate figures from which to defend Dan from this "assault," I'm all ears.

You introduced the issue with the following post:

Does anyone know how much it has cost the state per person brought to Melbourne for hotel quarantine? $100k, $1million.....?

It's just not worth it to continue with the failed program.

No mention of comparisons. That came after I drew attention to what was a blatant attempt to invite the Dan Bashers to take a baseball bat to him in their usual ideological biased way.

There's no point in circulating that information unless it's compared to other states unless your real interest is in political point-scoring.

 

[mill204]

@Raf_Epstein

And a nurse called in after spending a day giving Pfizer vax Did 3 training modules. fed, State & Pfizer. Said in Vic drs & nurses never see the vials. Pharmacist does the doses in another room.

How did this happen in Qld?

 

[Evolved1]

You introduced the issue with the following post:



No mention of comparisons. That came after I drew attention to what was a blatant attempt to invite the Dan Bashers to take a baseball bat to him in their usual ideological biased way.

There's no point in circulating that information unless it's compared to other states unless your real interest is in political point-scoring.

80% of the shortfall came from Victoria and 20% from the rest of Australia.

Is that Murdoch or Scomos fault?

 

[mill204]

80% of the shortfall came from Victoria and 20% from the rest of Australia.

Is that Murdoch or Scomos fault?

They aren't State figures.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

80% of the shortfall came from Victoria and 20% from the rest of Australia.

Is that Murdoch or Scomos fault?

actually its your math

the point you're trying to argue is using the wrong data.

you're saying the cost of the program is the tax shortfall. thats wrong. its the tax shortfall compared to what the estimates would have been on tax and economic activity if let it rip had been allowed.

this is a tough one to figure out, because there is no history to model against. the nearest we come to anything is sweden versus the rest of western europe. its economic activity took a relatively similar hit, but the issue there is the integration with the EU.

the usa i wouldnt use just because it was a cluster*. its one thing to remain open, its another to encourage destructive behaviour

 

[medusala]

the usa i wouldnt use just because it was a clusterfu**. its one thing to remain open, its another to encourage destructive behaviour

Actually it is a great example. A minority of states stayed open and had little difference in deaths to those that locked down and are doing better economically eg Florida.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Actually it is a great example. A minority of states stayed open and had little difference in deaths to those that locked down and are doing better economically eg Florida.

This coming from the guy who thought ww2 ended with the battle of britain

 

[Lord of the Pies]

Went through a booze bus last night, first one I have seen in in probably 12 months. It is safe for cops to have hundreds of people heavy breathing near them but you still cant have 6 people at your house. Would be nice if restrictions are lifted early on friday but it will probably be that "as of 11.59pm" rubbish again, ruining another friday night.

 

[The Passenger]

Hahaha, the whole Rod Laver Arena crowd booed when Andrews and his criminal mob got praised.

Keep trusting those poll numbers though.

Got a feeling you will get a nasty surprise next election

Original post makes me think of "If you want to know who will win the US election check out the NBA Finals ratings".

 

[Evolved1]

actually its your math

the point you're trying to argue is using the wrong data.

you're saying the cost of the program is the tax shortfall. thats wrong. its the tax shortfall compared to what the estimates would have been on tax and economic activity if let it rip had been allowed.

this is a tough one to figure out, because there is no history to model against. the nearest we come to anything is sweden versus the rest of western europe. its economic activity took a relatively similar hit, but the issue there is the integration with the EU.

the usa i wouldnt use just because it was a clusterfu**. its one thing to remain open, its another to encourage destructive behaviour

I'm not comparing the different approaches to the pandemic, more the cost of HQ as it relates to our second lockdown. Whether the Andrews government is culpable for that is a point of contention here.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I'm not comparing the different approaches to the pandemic, more the cost of HQ as it relates to our second lockdown. Whether the Andrews government is culpable for that is a point of contention here.

Again, that's not the cost of the lockdown. What you are comparing is the total budget consequences of COVID-19 AND the lockdown to business as usual.

To do what you want, you have to remove and replace the element you are wanting to estimate the cost on (lockdown).

Now the first thing is the alternative to lockdown isnt business as usual. As we have seen in Sweden and elsewhere, economic activity has been supressed regardless of social distancing restrictions. So what your first job is to figure out what economic activity would fall to under covid normal environments. As mentioned in the last post, this is VERY hard to do right now because cross border activity means some activity moves while some activity stops regardless of whats happening in the territory being reviewed.

The second thing is the alternative to "lockdown" isnt "no lockdown". The alternative is quarantine measures that would not have allowed the infections to escape. So this means you have to model up the cost of an alternative hotel quarantine program. You need to replace the cheap private security guards with the more expensive prison security guards, add in the cost to import prison security guards from other states or overseas (we had a shortage in victoria which is why the original model was used in the first place). You need to factor in the cost of accelerating the SalesForce implementation (having gone through this, there is a cost), and also the cost of taking over the aged care network and paying those staff to not work multiple jobs/venues.

This isnt saying these costs offset everything - far from it. Its just when doing the analysis you are doing, you do need to look at the alternative costs to properly do this. FWIW media in this country do this exactly how you have, and it drives me nuts. Especially when they do it on stuff like the defence projects. The "cost" isnt the overrun from the original budget, its the difference between this option and the options not taken when considering if the same issues would have caused similar overruns for them too.

I remember years ago people got stuck into the tender choice for one govt infrastructure project which had a budget blowout, saying it was because they chose the wrong supplier. Idiot issue however was the massive rise in steel prices was the cause of the blowout, and given all tenderers were building with steel, the blowout costs would have been similar for all parties (unless one had a hedge to buy the steal as part of their arrangement).

 

[Turnover]

I reckon we all chip in and send this dude Turnover and Evolved1 way

Wallet can stay on sen. Our club has suffered enough

 

[hawkman]

Wallet can stay on sen. Our club has suffered enough

Not possible. Another 50 years of suffering will be fine by me

 

[GoldenSky]

Scomo is well ahead of Anal in the polls federally. Reading the Scomo thread on this board would make you think he's the demon spawn of Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson.

Oh please don't take this as an accurate gauge - people like myself have actually been barred from posting in that thread.

 

[Blue1980]

Overall sentiment about Dan is difficult to gauge. Theres no doubt he's more popular than the opposition leader, who provides less opposition than Essendon in finals, but what does that actually mean?

He's had a shocker with covid. I can see why those who haven't been adversely affected by his incompetence or enjoy the wfh lifestyle like him. He talks a good game too.

Scomo is well ahead of Anal in the polls federally. Reading the Scomo thread on this board would make you think he's the demon spawn of Donald Trump and Pauline Hanson.

If popularity is the measure of success, then Dan and Scomo have handled covid with excellence. Maybe that's the only metric that counts in politics.

My overall point in another post is, regardless of who is in charge even the most popular leaders in this country aren’t going to be getting more than 55% on a 2 party preferred basis, even at the best of times.

That means nearly 1 in 2 people are going to dislike or not have voted for the current people in charge, many of those will be vocal about it, others not so.

Also I can’t remember current political leaders of parties being cheered in my lifetime.

As I also said if anything it might push people to vote more for the greens than LNP, if they don’t like Dan and swinging Voters or traditional LNP voters.

 

[Blue1980]

80% of the shortfall came from Victoria and 20% from the rest of Australia.

Is that Murdoch or Scomos fault?

I more look at it like this, quarantine screw up, covid cases rise to hundreds.

What do you then do?

A) Do what we did and lockdown to get our numbers in line with other states? (Basically eradication)

B) go full Sweden and be shut off from the rest of the country for at least 18 months (plus leading to inevitably it escaping from Vic to rest of Aus at some point, plus overrun health system)

C) Try to have an each way bet (which most likely would of led to solution B)

Are people mad at Dan for the lockdown or the quarantine stuff up, or both?

Murdoch press seem to be mad at everything, angry at lockdowns, angry at case numbers, it’s very easy to see it’s just partisan bias as there is no real ideological stance with their ranting (except don’t like Labor govts).

I am mad for the quarantine stuff up, but not the lockdown, they had to make tough choices to clean up their own mess which they did.

 

[eddiesmith]

It was the quarantine stuff up and then some of the over top restrictions which were brought in for the lockdown. As well as lockdown restrictions for virus free regional Victoria because it was running out of control in Geelong.

 

[Deliverance]

How the * has he still not got contact tracing sorted out. ABC news tonight. Just locks everyone down constantly.

 

[Evolved1]

I more look at it like this, quarantine screw up, covid cases rise to hundreds.

What do you then do?

A) Do what we did and lockdown to get our numbers in line with other states? (Basically eradication)

B) go full Sweden and be shut off from the rest of the country for at least 18 months (plus leading to inevitably it escaping from Vic to rest of Aus at some point, plus overrun health system)

C) Try to have an each way bet (which most likely would of led to solution B)

Are people mad at Dan for the lockdown or the quarantine stuff up, or both?

Murdoch press seem to be mad at everything, angry at lockdowns, angry at case numbers, it’s very easy to see it’s just partisan bias as there is no real ideological stance with their ranting (except don’t like Labor govts).

I am mad for the quarantine stuff up, but not the lockdown, they had to make tough choices to clean up their own mess which they did.

That's pretty much the gist of what I was trying to get across though it seems to have been worded poorly. I thought the Andrews government were doing a decent enough job until covid hit, but the results of the HQ screwup are unforgivable as far as I'm concerned.

I find it odd that he's treated as a hero by some given the massive costs (not just financial) associated with the HQ fiasco. The closest thing I can compare fans of Dan to are the standbyhird crowd.

I hoped to see Dan given the boot in the same way I wanted Hird done. Sometimes you need a pound of flesh to feel as though justice has been served.

 

[Blue1980]

That's pretty much the gist of what I was trying to get across though it seems to have been worded poorly. I thought the Andrews government were doing a decent enough job until covid hit, but the results of the HQ screwup are unforgivable as far as I'm concerned.

I find it odd that he's treated as a hero by some given the massive costs (not just financial) associated with the HQ fiasco. The closest thing I can compare fans of Dan to are the standbyhird crowd.

I hoped to see Dan given the boot in the same way I wanted Hird done. Sometimes you need a pound of flesh to feel as though justice has been served.

Well he could of been removed, but my overarching point of what Sky News and Murdoch media were up to wouldn’t of changed.

They faked outrage of the situation to suit their partisan political gains, which has actually made me want to side with Andrews more so.

Now take the media away, the stuff ups I can see are this:

a) shoddy quarantine
b) not locking down fast enough when cases began to rise
c) stupid postcode lockdowns which were well and truly after the horse had bolted

Of those a looms largest, as b and c wouldn’t of happened. At that time as a nation we were still in the mentality of not wanting to lockdown too hard, whereas over the past few months short hard lockdowns have happened across most mainland states.

However since then, I think the Andrews govt have done things mostly right to get us to where we are now. It’s just that long lockdown has given everyone in the state PTSD (myself included) so whenever anything happens now (like the snap lockdown last week) it brings back all the old wounds of last year.

So what happens now? I don’t know. I don’t have a want for Andrews to be removed, but I understand those who do. By the time 2022 election comes around, if he is still in charge, it will be 8 years in charge, he might have had enough by then anyway (especially after the last 12 months).

 

[Ned_Flanders]

That's pretty much the gist of what I was trying to get across though it seems to have been worded poorly. I thought the Andrews government were doing a decent enough job until covid hit, but the results of the HQ screwup are unforgivable as far as I'm concerned.

I find it odd that he's treated as a hero by some given the massive costs (not just financial) associated with the HQ fiasco. The closest thing I can compare fans of Dan to are the standbyhird crowd.

I hoped to see Dan given the boot in the same way I wanted Hird done. Sometimes you need a pound of flesh to feel as though justice has been served.

its not over yet, no sane poli would take this over till the vaccine rollout is pretty much done

 

[Rob R]

No wonder Dan had to lock down the state and other states shut Vics out. Disorganised Dan still hasn't bothered to fix contact tracing despite 800 deaths and the opportunity to learn from everyother state.

Melbourne cake shop baffled by exposure window as contractors sound alarm on contact tracing

Marciano Alvarez's cake shop in Melbourne was listed as a COVID-19 exposure site earlier this month, but he's adamant an infected person could not have visited at the specified time because the store wasn't open.

www.abc.net.au

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Evolved1]

its not over yet, no sane poli would take this over till the vaccine rollout is pretty much done

You'd need a crowbar to remove Andrews from the leadership seat while his polling numbers are good.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

You'd need a crowbar to remove Andrews from the leadership seat while his polling numbers are good.

thats irrelevant. if you were Allen (just for example), would you want to step up with HQ, returned travellers, uni students, and all that still to deal with?

better to leave all the s**t on one dude

 

[eddiesmith]

IF the party wanted a change, 12 months out from the election has always been my prediction. But he is so damn popular and with support where it matters, I can't see his ego letting it happen.