Vic How would you rate Daniel Andrews' performance as Victorian Premier? - Part 7

[Hornberger]

Thank you for the reply. I had assumed the ABC would be more thorough in their reporting. I appreciate the context you have applied to the report.

Why bother reading the report, when you just read the exec summary?

Suburban Rail Loop on track to cost $125b

The Suburban Rail Loop to connect Melbourne’s suburbs is expected to cost more than double the government’s initial estimate for the entire project, according to a new report.

www.theage.com.au

The Age is reporting it as a "cost blowout" when the PBO is literally just taking the Governments own numbers, adding projected Opex and capex over 50 years, making no adjustment for inflation and adding them together. Apply that methodology to any Government project and you will get very large number but which are entirely meaningless.

What is the Total Opex (in nominal terms) for next 50 years of those 10 Hospital that Guy has promised to build? $300 billion maybe? By this metric, the SRL is going to save the government a $100 billion.

 

[Chief]

Who would have thought that the WHO's Dr David Nabarro was a "cooker"?

Long lockdowns a ‘failure of policy’, says WHO envoy on COVID

David Nabarro, the World Health Organisation’s special envoy on the pandemic, says he didn’t support the COVID-zero approach.

www.theage.com.au

Imaging the flaming in here if Nabarro argued for a "middle path" this time last year! He'd have been burnt to a crisp!!

He's talking about length and strictness.

He might be right.

So?

" David Nabarro, the World Health Organisation’s special envoy on COVID-19, says lockdowns were an effective way for governments to buy time to prepare their health systems at the start of the pandemic, but should not have become a default response to outbreaks."

"in my judgment,"

Did they prepare their health systems? Seemed like they simply had no more skilled health professionals to throw at it.

Surveillance and detection in Vic and NSW was considered a joke in the industry.

 

[Sttew]

That report is not worth the paper it written on.



The report was written at the request of Matthew Guy and was deliberately framed to result in a grossly misleading result by including 50 years worth of Opex and Capex (measured at nominal value) into the cost of the SRL. You are including the cost buying replacement trains in 40 years time in the capital cost of the SRL. It is total bullshit.

If you read what the have PBO have actually done, it take the Government's actual forecast capex, add in 50 years worth of Opex and than added together (without adjusting for inflation). It is totally meaningless.

A couple of observations, if I may.

1. Why hasn't the Andrews government submitted a business case to Infrastructure Australia for the SRL? For what is Victoria's largest ever infrastructure spend surely you'd expect there to be an open and transparent comprehensive plan and business case?
2. In 2018 Andrews said the first stage would cost $33Billion. How do we know that figure was ever accurate given it was not open to scrutiny?
3. Does it matter who requested the review by the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office? It is an independent body that is NOT aligned to the government or Opposition intended to provide ongoing fiscal, economic and financial services.
4. How can anyone confidently say that the SRL will not experience cost blowout when virtually every current infrastructure project by this government has experience cost blow outs?

 

[The Punter]

A couple of observations, if I may.

1. Why hasn't the Andrews government submitted a business case to Infrastructure Australia for the SRL? For what is Victoria's largest ever infrastructure spend surely you'd expect there to be an open and transparent comprehensive plan and business case?
2. In 2018 Andrews said the first stage would cost $33Billion. How do we know that figure was ever accurate given it was not open to scrutiny?
3. Does it matter who requested the review by the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office? It is an independent body that is NOT aligned to the government or Opposition intended to provide ongoing fiscal, economic and financial services.
4. How can anyone confidently say that the SRL will not experience cost blowout when virtually every current infrastructure project by this government has experience cost blow outs?

The business case criticism was made of EWL by Andrews in 2013-2014. Why Andrews is not playing to the standards he advocated when in opposition is a good question.

 

[Hornberger]

3. Does it matter who requested the review by the Victorian Parliamentary Budget Office? It is an independent body that is NOT aligned to the government or Opposition intended to provide ongoing fiscal, economic and financial services.

To call this a "review" is grossly exaggerated. They really haven't reviewed anything. All they have done, as per the request of Mathew Guy, taken the Government's forecast of the construction cost, then done some back the of the envelope maths on the going opex and Capex over 50 years (measured in nominal terms) then added to them together. It is an entirely meaningless exercise. Take any government program or project, measuring the cost over 50 years in nominal terms and you are going to get an absurdly large number.

This is not a criticism of the PBO. They did exactly what was asked of them. The issue lies with the nature of the request.

4. How can anyone confidently say that the SRL will not experience cost blowout when virtually every current infrastructure project by this government has experience cost blow outs?

What a completely moronic comment. Let's not build any infrastructure ever, because we can't 100% their won't be a cost blowout.

 

[The Punter]

To call this a "review" is grossly exaggerated. They really haven't reviewed anything. All they have done, as per the request of Mathew Guy, taken the Government's forecast of the construction cost, then done some back the of the envelope maths on the going opex and Capex over 50 years (measured in nominal terms) then added to them together. It is an entirely meaningless exercise. Take any government program or project, measuring the cost over 50 years in nominal terms and you are going to get an absurdly large number.

This is not a criticism of the PBO. They did exactly what was asked of them. The issue lies with the nature of the request.


What a completely moronic comment. Let's not build any infrastructure ever, because we can't 100% their won't be a cost blowout.

On the first point, a back of an envelope policy deserves a back of an envelope analysis.

And every time the Andrews Labor Government respond to a blowout question with "the real cost would be not building it", they add to the cost because contractors know money is no object for this government. It's not their money anyway. It is one thing to be bad at budgeting, but another to have no desire to even want to do it at all.

 

[Maggie5]

Other than that, federal politics rarely affects my daily life, Dans * ups on the other hand…

I find that comment surprising.

I would think that Federal policies affect us more.

For me I am hardly impacted by State policies. When I purchased property in 2019 - stamp duty, bought a new car, rego but pay that every year, drivers licence (another 4 years before I renew). Local Government impacts me more than state policies but not as much as Federal.

On a weekly basis fuel and alcohol, visit GP or specialist (pay the gap), tax, GST, just a few things that come immediately to mind.

Hospitals not such a big issue as I have top hospital and extras cover.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

That report is not worth the paper it written on.



The report was written at the request of Matthew Guy and was deliberately framed to result in a grossly misleading result by including 50 years worth of Opex and Capex (measured at nominal value) into the cost of the SRL. You are including the cost buying replacement trains in 40 years time in the capital cost of the SRL. It is total bullshit.

If you read what the have PBO have actually done, it take the Government's actual forecast capex, add in 50 years worth of Opex and than added together (without adjusting for inflation). It is totally meaningless.

It's even more questionable given they're including developing surrounding precincts.

I severely doubt the government will be building the apartments next to the stations. Basic infrastructure yes, rest of it no chance. They will leave it to the developers

 

[Sttew]

What a completely moronic comment. Let's not build any infrastructure ever, because we can't 100% their won't be a cost blowout.

What is even more moronic is a government committing to the largest infrastructure project in the state's history without a business case. "Trust us. It will deliver jobs and get cars off the road" Problem is the 2018 estimate of $50B for the entire project is dwarfed by the latest stages 1 & 2 estimate of $125 billion – that's more than double the government’s initial estimate for the entire project!

If the PBO costings are garbage as you say, why doesn't the government produce the business case? We aren't talking about chicken feed here...

Edit: Dan refused to answer questions at the presser this morning, saying his minister, Jacinta Allen, could answer them....

 

[adogsfan5]

Deeply concerning.

 

[FIGJAM]

Surveillance and detection in Vic and NSW was considered a joke in the industry.

Not true! NSW had good systems in place and Vic had to copy them.

They managed to localise and contain a significant outbreak in the northern beaches.

They tried the same for Delta, but it was too slippery and thus the Covid Zero dream was over which was and is inevitable, particularly now Omnicron spreads like wildfire (apologies to the CCP, but it's true!).

NSW by far handled the pandemic better than any other state. They took the most repatriations, took proportionate responses, was reluctant and always last to close borders, ensured that they acted in time to prevent too much stress on the hospitals and did all of this with the biggest single city in Australia that has a population larger than the whole of NZ in an area less than 5% the size of NZ.

We on the other hand shat the bed with monotonous regularity, with the longest lockdown of any world city, enforced 'rings of steel', shut down within hours of a case either locally or at the boarders, banned kids from play grounds, enforced masks outdoors without any epidemiological basis for them whatsoever and then outlawed the dropping of one's enforced outdoor mask to consume a beverage.

All most of us were arguing for last year was 'the middle ground' that Nabarro was trying to highlight. We were miles left of that happy medium and we were and still are worse off for it.

 

[Chief]

Not true! NSW had good systems in place and Vic had to copy them.

They managed to localise and contain a significant outbreak in the northern beaches.

Maybe. The whole cruise ship thing was completely ****ed.

 

[Ghost Patrol]

Not true! NSW had good systems in place and Vic had to copy them.

They managed to localise and contain a significant outbreak in the northern beaches.

They tried the same for Delta, but it was too slippery and thus the Covid Zero dream was over which was and is inevitable, particularly now Omnicron spreads like wildfire (apologies to the CCP, but it's true!).

NSW by far handled the pandemic better than any other state. They took the most repatriations, took proportionate responses, was reluctant and always last to close borders, ensured that they acted in time to prevent too much stress on the hospitals and did all of this with the biggest single city in Australia that has a population larger than the whole of NZ in an area less than 5% the size of NZ.

We on the other hand shat the bed with monotonous regularity, with the longest lockdown of any world city, enforced 'rings of steel', shut down within hours of a case either locally or at the boarders, banned kids from play grounds, enforced masks outdoors without any epidemiological basis for them whatsoever and then outlawed the dropping of one's enforced outdoor mask to consume a beverage.

All most of us were arguing for last year was 'the middle ground' that Nabarro was trying to highlight. We were miles left of that happy medium and we were and still are worse off for it.

Ah yes, the gold standard bullshit talking points that LNP/Murdoch were running with.

They trained you well.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

From the north-eastern suburbs, the Epping train line is only accessible by a cross-town bus trip.

The Liberals are planning on fixing that.... by cancelling the Suburban Rail Loop.

 

[Not Important]

That’s probably cos you’ve only been here for 5 minutes…

The partisan barracking the last 2 years would make the Richmond board look balanced.

and you're the cheer leader 4 the dark side.

 

[Not Important]

Deeply concerning.

it is. but vic isn't the only state that is in this predicament. know someone in n.s.w who has a brain tumour & whose op has been deferred bc the scans have shown it hasn't grown.

 

[adogsfan5]

it is. but vic isn't the only state that is in this predicament. know someone in n.s.w who has a brain tumour & whose op has been deferred bc the scans have shown it hasn't grown.

Yep, all horrible stories all around the country. There HAS to be some kind of ridiculously good financial incentive to get people into nursing degrees and to keep them in their jobs. F* me - offer free degrees, a start up bonus and double their effing salaries (government to cover this!).

 

[FIGJAM]

Ah yes, the gold standard bullshit talking points that LNP/Murdoch were running with.

They trained you well.

I don't read Murdoch s**t and have never paid attention to anything that comes out of Scommo's mouth (and clearly this week shows why!).

I did however pay attention to NSW's proportionate responses over time and they were a damn sight closer to the middle ground than our bed-shitting leaders employed here and that virtue-signalling sycophants adored.

 

[Chief]

I don't read Murdoch s**t and have never paid attention to anything that comes out of Scommo's mouth (and clearly this week shows why!).

I did however pay attention to NSW's proportionate responses over time and they were a damn sight closer to the middle ground than our bed-shitting leaders employed here and that virtue-signalling sycophants adored.

Soon as Gladys opened up NSW with outbreaks ongoing the whole country cringed. She not only shat the bed but went around the neighbours and smeared it on their walls.

 

[kalex6251]

^^^

and lets not forget alex hawkes ruby princess nightmare

...... and the bed wetting it caused within nsw govt circles

 

[FIGJAM]

Soon as Gladys opened up NSW with outbreaks ongoing the whole country cringed.

If you're still so keen on chasing the Covid Zero dragon, why don't you just move to China and let the rest of us get the * on with life!

 

[Crankyhawk]

Deeply concerning.

We don’t have a tent. We used to have a container (as in shipping container type with sort of air con) to triage the suspected covid patients and have them wait but everyone now mixes in the waiting room (because people are getting covid from everywhere else you can’t prove it was hospital causation)
So our patients ramp on ambulance or are offload to waiting room

 

[Gralin]

If you're still so keen on chasing the Covid Zero dragon, why don't you just move to China and let the rest of us get the * on with life!

Translation being * everyone but you

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

We don’t have a tent. We used to have a container (as in shipping container type with sort of air con) to triage the suspected covid patients and have them wait but everyone now mixes in the waiting room (because people are getting covid from everywhere else you can’t prove it was hospital causation)
So our patients ramp on ambulance or are offload to waiting room

Casey has something more akin to a portable building in the car park. From what I can gather the covid patients are going there.

My mother had to go to hospital early Wendsday morning. Arrived by ambo around 3am and didn't get a bed until 7am. The Emergency was filled with people with all sorts of ailments.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Casey has something more akin to a portable building in the car park. From what I can gather the covid patients are going there.

My mother had to go to hospital early Wendsday morning. Arrived by ambo around 3am and didn't get a bed until 7am. The Emergency was filled with people with all sorts of ailments.

odd, our covid patients are still getting actual beds
its the non covid patients who are struggling to get bed access