Strategy Hypothetical Pick Trade Thread

[PMBangers]

For discussion around possible Pick swaps heading into, or during, the draft

What is/ isn't fair, which picks are going to be the hottest property, the players that'll be in every clubs sights on night 2, etc.!

 

[Bojan KantKick]

With only ~50 picks expected to be used, picks in the 40s are fairly low value except to clubs with points considerations. 40 and 43 might have value for Brisbane in exchange for 34, but I think that's as high as North could get.

Yeah you are probably right. Below is the trade our clubs did last year. A similar trade this year would suit North. Pick a player at circa 32 and use circa 53 on Cooper Harvey if he attracts a bid. Otherwise we will probably look to trade into next years draft.

 

[Stamos]

I think 22 may be traded into a F2 and maybe a few points.

I think Carlton could be keen, F2 + 3rd (currently #49, will be lower by then) for #22

 

[ChookNorris]

Can see cats sliding back if who they want at 7 is gone. Carlton keen on it

 

[eth-dog]

22 for the Bulldogs F2 and one of our late picks makes some sense

That's one I can see happening.

I think Carlton could be keen, F2 + 3rd (currently #49, will be lower by then) for #22

Another that could happen.

Unfortunately both teams are the ones I don't want to trade to

 

[chopflop]

That's one I can see happening.

Another that could happen.

Unfortunately both teams are the ones I don't want to trade to

Haha I was thinking the same thing when O wrote it

 

[Obeanie1]

Except for Allen, Ryan, Nic Nat, Sheed, Sheppard, Darling you hardly ever take WA players in the top 30.....


We will have to agree to disagree on Wardlow. I'd prefer pick 2 but we won't know for another 5 or 6 years whether it was a good deal

How many non WA picks do I need to list? Really?

As I posted the Eagles follow a best available policy with early picks and lean towards local talent with later picks. If a WA player is ranked high enough they will pick them early. If a non WA player ticks the boxes they pick them.

I dont see that changing this draft.

My tip is a non WA player with pick 8/9 and a WA player with 12.

Pick 20 again 50 / 50 best available..

Pixk 26 A WA player

And if they use a 5th pick a WA player.

 

[The Nostradamus]

There will be around 60 picks used in the draft

 

[bird_man]

How many non WA picks do I need to list? Really?

As I posted the Eagles follow a best available policy with early picks and lean towards local talent with later picks. If a WA player is ranked high enough they will pick them early. If a non WA player ticks the boxes they pick them.

I dont see that changing this draft.

My tip is a non WA player with pick 8/9 and a WA player with 12.

Pick 20 again 50 / 50 best available..

Pixk 26 A WA player

And if they use a 5th pick a WA player.

You can post them if you feel like proving my point for me.

Just having a look at WC list you have about 11 players that they have drafted themselves in the top 30 and 6 of them are from WA, so over 50%

Not sure how many WA players make up the overall numbers in the AFL but I can't imagine it would be anywhere near 50%

Then there are also the two WA boys they took at pick 31 in the last couple of years.

I'm sure how you can suggest that WC rarely draft WA kids

Anyway, we agree that they will likely take at least one WA kid with one of those early picks at least

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Its really close - not sure how you get it being delusional - unless your Dodo and want to win every trade by a land slide.

4 & 22 = 2,879
9 & 9 = 2,938

Who is better off is determined by the Saints 2023. Another 10th place and its even - if they make finals it would put the Saints in front - if they fall it puts ess in front.

With the Saints not improving their list in the off season I would be surprised if they got anywhere near the top 8.

It’s delusional to think the saints are any chance to rise next year but they are every chance to fall further. If they are honest with themselves the trade is a risk they simply couldn’t take. High chance it’s 4 and 22 for 9 and pick 3 to 6 in what all of the recruiters believe is a strong draft.

 

[BrutThough]

It’s delusional to think the saints are any chance to rise next year but they are every chance to fall further. If they are honest with themselves the trade is a risk they simply couldn’t take. High chance it’s 4 and 22 for 9 and pick 3 to 6 in what all of the recruiters believe is a strong draft.

It's more delusional to think Saints will fall to bottom 4 than it is to think we could rise a few spots.

 

[Foxx]

Of course a number of clubs have stated they'd like to move up the order. But interestingly, a few have also said they'd move down.

 

[Obeanie1]

You can post them if you feel like proving my point for me.

Just having a look at WC list you have about 11 players that they have drafted themselves in the top 30 and 6 of them are from WA, so over 50%

Not sure how many WA players make up the overall numbers in the AFL but I can't imagine it would be anywhere near 50%

Then there are also the two WA boys they took at pick 31 in the last couple of years.

I'm sure how you can suggest that WC rarely draft WA kids

Anyway, we agree that they will likely take at least one WA kid with one of those early picks at least

I never said they rarely pick WA kids. That would be dumb to say that.

I said they rarely pick all WA kids. They pick best available with early picks no matter the state they are from. And THEN yes they focus on WA talent with later picks.

The point was that those who think the Eagles will select 100% WA players in any Phantom drafts are being lazy.

 

[old55]

That's one I can see happening.

Another that could happen.

Unfortunately both teams are the ones I don't want to trade to

MFC F2nd + 37 for 22 could work both ways but I don't think we're allowed to trade 37 back to you. Maybe Brisbane gets involved with 38 for 37.

 

[briztoon]

It's more delusional to think Saints will fall to bottom 4 than it is to think we could rise a few spots.

No it’s not.

There’s a fair chance most opposition supporters will believe there’s more chance of the Saints finishing bottom 6, than making the top 8.

 

[eth-dog]

MFC F2nd + 37 for 22 could work both ways but I don't think we're allowed to trade 37 back to you. Maybe Brisbane gets involved with 38 for 37.

Unlikely. We probably want a higher end F2 if it happens.

 

[BrutThough]

No it’s not.

There’s a fair chance most opposition supporters will believe there’s more chance of the Saints finishing bottom 6, than making the top 8.

And most oppositions supporters just hear our list lacks A graders so take that to mean it is no good when they actually have NFI what the overall quality of player is.

 

[Wild Bill]

And most oppositions supporters just hear our list lacks A graders so take that to mean it is no good when they actually have NFI what the overall quality of player is.

Where is the improvement going to come from? You have lost more than you added in the off season.

 

[BrutThough]

Where is the improvement going to come from? You have lost more than you added in the off season.

Like a lot of other clubs, we will be needing improving from those who have missed a lot of football with injury. As great as it would have been to get an A grader in, I don't think not getting one in is going to cause all our players to suddenly drop off. And as much as bringing in multiple fringe players with late picks gets fans excited, that's not what our list needed so only adding key defensive depth without giving up anything still improves the list.

And when we look at "outs", we lost a fringe best 22 player who didn't have a clear position and a ruck who looked cooked in their last month, who was immediately replaced by someone whose output was much bigger and more influential. In comparison to what a lot of other teams lost this off season, that's not that bad.

We are a middle bracket side and what high/low in that bracket were finish will likely we determined by fixture difficultly and injuries.

 

[old55]

Unlikely. We probably want a higher end F2 if it happens.

We've got Freo's too ...

 

[eth-dog]

We've got Freo's too ...

As I said, something higher. Both of you should be top 6 minimum, probably top 4.

 

[briztoon]

And most oppositions supporters just hear our list lacks A graders so take that to mean it is no good when they actually have NFI what the overall quality of player is.

I believe most opposition supporters on BigFooty will have a fair idea where your list is at.

The unknown is Ross Lyon. Is he still the same Ross, or has he grown as a coach while watching the rules and game change.

 

[Taylor]

Freo being able to loosen up the F2 (North) might be able to buy a pick. But I think it would take the swapping of the high future third (North) and low future third (Carlton) into a very late F2 first.

I'm not sure even an early 20s pick this year will be worth pick #20 (North F2), #39 (North F3), #48 (Carlton F3) with let's say Sydney's F3 #55

I think that North F2 is going to select Aiden O'Driscoll next year's draft.

 

[Crow till I die]

Freo being able to loosen up the F2 (North) might be able to buy a pick. But I think it would take the swapping of the high future third (North) and low future third (Carlton) into a very late F2 first.

I'm not sure even an early 20s pick this year will be worth pick #20 (North F2), #39 (North F3), #48 (Carlton F3) with let's say Sydney's F3 #55

I think that North F2 is going to select Aiden O'Driscoll next year's draft.

north don't have their F2 next year..crows do

 

[Taylor]

north don't have their F2 next year..crows do

Freo has one as well

 

[doug85]

It was reported that Hawthorn wanted to trade up to pick 2 from West Coast when they had it, with the rumour being that we wanted either Wardlaw or Tsatas.

If Tsatas does this magic sliding act I don't think he gets beyond our first selection.

If Wardlaw is gone at our pick, I reckon we might be on the phone to see if you’d like our pick 5.