I’m invested in funeral services

[kirky]

This is probably a bit of topic of what we are discussing here but provides me with a great deal of satisfaction as the banker for this company for 15+ years.

Was today at a long lunch today (do they happen anymore?) with the managing director and owner of a company which I helped get started back in 2000 and was their banker for 15 years. They have sold their private company to Canadian interests for $10m with settlement due in October and he said this wouldn’t have been possible without my assistance back all those years ago.

I feel extremely happy for him and his family and since I left the bank 15 months ago we have remained good friends.

It is all about personal relationships and connections. Whilst I was his banker we didn’t socialise and mix business with personal but once I left it was all about personal relationships.

 

[1970crow]

I hear what you're saying, I'm in a similar position. I guess my question is then what assets do you think will survive a market correction anyway?

It's also important to work out you're goals and hence your time horizon. Are you looking to achieve sustained yields > interest rates over the long term?

I guess I’d be talking about medium to longish term. Missus and I are both a year or so shy of 50 and running a 4 year plan to leave Alice. It’s only now that I’ve really started taking an interest in our SMSF. When the TDs were 5% it’s easy to just live with that as it’s risk free. But plummeting interest rates and nearing expected downturn in earnings has me looking out our investment strategy. Which up until now was basically nothing.

 

[StonesThrow]

I guess I’d be talking about medium to longish term. Missus and I are both a year or so shy of 50 and running a 4 year plan to leave Alice. It’s only now that I’ve really started taking an interest in our SMSF. When the TDs were 5% it’s easy to just live with that as it’s risk free. But plummeting interest rates and nearing expected downturn in earnings has me looking out our investment strategy. Which up until now was basically nothing.

Well as a fellow (financial) conservative, I still highly recommend you check out Vanguard. Read a bit about the fundamentals of how it works. You can still select funds with different risk.

If you're worried about a correction, you might want to look at a conservative fund that is weighted more heavily in bonds and risk free. It's very much set and forget with yearly readjustments to keep your asset shares in line with your strategy. The fees are low, which is the big draw card. And even with the conservative fund, you're likely to see around 4% yields over the medium to long term.

Another thing to consider is that it's a bit irrational to try and time the market if you have a long term strategy (I'm falling for this as well). It's still unlikely that they're will be a significant correction anyway (even though the odds are the highest they've been for a while).

Still, it's good to be weary imo as we're in very uncertain times. Slow global growth, near zero to zero interest rates and high performing stock markets is uncharted territory.

 

[feenix67]

Your comment about timing the market is spot on. It's a fools game for anyone with a plus 5 year time horizon. I'm 51 and still heavily geared in both local and international markets and have been for the past 10 years. Despite some eye watering annual losses, I'm still way ahead of any conservative strategy over the same period. I won't be cashing out within the next 5 then I'll likely go to a TTR set up at which point I'll probably dial down the risk profile a bit, but until then I'm happy to ride the volatility. History shows corrections don't last long, there's just too much ambition in the market for prolonged negatives.

Just to add credibility, I consulted on super funds for 20 years and managed funds for some very large clients, including the Gerards. I can tell you, there's no pressure as great as sitting in a Board room with big Rob, trying to justify flat returns!

 

[kirky]

Your comment about timing the market is spot on. It's a fools game for anyone with a plus 5 year time horizon. I'm 51 and still heavily geared in both local and international markets and have been for the past 10 years. Despite some eye watering annual losses, I'm still way ahead of any conservative strategy over the same period. I won't be cashing out within the next 5 then I'll likely go to a TTR set up at which point I'll probably dial down the risk profile a bit, but until then I'm happy to ride the volatility. History shows corrections don't last long, there's just too much ambition in the market for prolonged negatives.

Just to add credibility, I consulted on super funds for 20 years and managed funds for some very large clients, including the Gerards. I can tell you, there's no pressure as great as sitting in a Board room with big Rob, trying to justify flat returns!

Agree. If you try to play markets you won’t ever win.

What Happens When You Miss the Best Days in the Stock Market? | The Motley Fool

Tempted to sit on the sidelines during a market correction? Here's what you'd give up.

www.fool.com

Had my super in a high growth profile until the last 5 years of my career at which point I moved 25% of it to growth then moved 25% to balanced in the last 2 of that 5 years. Now in retirement it is classified as balanced with 70% in growth and 30% in defensive.

 

[mistylake]

I’ve heard Tulip bulbs are the new Bitcoin.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Your comment about timing the market is spot on. It's a fools game for anyone with a plus 5 year time horizon. I'm 51 and still heavily geared in both local and international markets and have been for the past 10 years. Despite some eye watering annual losses, I'm still way ahead of any conservative strategy over the same period. I won't be cashing out within the next 5 then I'll likely go to a TTR set up at which point I'll probably dial down the risk profile a bit, but until then I'm happy to ride the volatility. History shows corrections don't last long, there's just too much ambition in the market for prolonged negatives.

Just to add credibility, I consulted on super funds for 20 years and managed funds for some very large clients, including the Gerards. I can tell you, there's no pressure as great as sitting in a Board room with big Rob, trying to justify flat returns!

I've heard it's about "time in the market" rather than "timing the market". You got any tips for a 34 year old who wants to invest about 100K for the long term? Any reading materials I could use to help educate myself? I'm a layman at investing but I need somewhere to park my money because interest rates are garbage.

 

[LiquidCrow]

I've heard it's about "time in the market" rather than "timing the market". You got any tips for a 34 year old who wants to invest about 100K for the long term? Any reading materials I could use to help educate myself? I'm a layman at investing but I need somewhere to park my money because interest rates are garbage.

Was in a similar position around this time last year.

Was looking for a 20-30 year time frame and wanted something to set and forget, so ended up going for a vanguard ETF (VDHG) for the international exposure. Found it quite straightforward to setup dividend reinvestment.

Have been far too conservative for too long, and with interest rates looking like flat lining and saving accounts paying next to nothing will probably top up again next year.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Was in a similar position around this time last year.

Was looking for a 20-30 year time frame and wanted something to set and forget, so ended up going for a vanguard ETF (VDHG) for the international exposure. Found it quite straightforward to setup dividend reinvestment.

Have been far too conservative for too long, and with interest rates looking like flat lining and saving accounts paying next to nothing will probably top up again next year.

Same here. I'm tired of watching other people actually do things while I keep going over hypothetical scenarios in my head.

Funnily enough VDHG was one of the ETF's I was looking at. Apparently it's a good choice for a low effort layman like myself.

 

[mistylake]

I've heard it's about "time in the market" rather than "timing the market". You got any tips for a 34 year old who wants to invest about 100K for the long term? Any reading materials I could use to help educate myself? I'm a layman at investing but I need somewhere to park my money because interest rates are garbage.

This Dymphena Boholt is pretty clued in on real estate. I’ve followed her stuff been to seminars etc. for 20 years.
This in my email today.


The Roaring 20s will be thanks to this


What will households do with their warchest of money?

Hi ,

Today, I’m going to show you what I think will be the primary driver of the boom in 2021 and beyond.

What I’m going to show you is that households have actually come out of 2020 sitting on a massive warchest of money.

Massive.

I don’t think anyone saw this coming.

And I know a lot of people won’t believe it. For a lot of people, COVID has been incredibly tough. People have lost their jobs. Businesses have closed.

For many individuals, it’s been challenging to say the least.

However, while that’s true for many individuals, when you look at the Australian household sector overall, household incomes have actually gone up!

I know, right? Who would have thought?

Basically, it looks like the government may have over-cooked things with its stimulus payments.

They gave away too much money.

Now I’m not saying that’s a bad thing. JobKeeper and the JobSeeker Supplement helped underwrite confidence in the economy when things were at their darkest. Who knows what things would have looked like without them.

But with the benefit of hindsight, they have had the accidental effect of juicing household incomes.

And that’s because wage and salary income held up much better than expected:

This comes from CBA’s internal data, and it shows that after modest falls in income between March and July, salary income actually started growing at a decent clip, and by the end of the year, was getting back to its long run average of 4% a year.

And while wage income held up better than expected, government support payments came in hot. That’s the red bars on this chart, again from CBA:

So what that shows, when you put them together, is that pre-Covid, household income was growing at you usual 3-4%, and by year end, it was growing at 7-8%.

That’s a big difference!

This income boom was evident in the September quarter national accounts. Household disposable income grew about 4% in the both the June and September quarters – that’s an annual clip of around 14%! You can see the impact of government payments – the orange bars – in this chart here.

Households took that income and went on a spending spree, jumping up over 10% in the quarter in most states.

However, even with a spending spree in full effect, households were so flush that they were still able to put a sizeable bit of money away, and the savings ratio boomed!

The CBA savings indicator – which is more timely and measures cash in their deposit accounts – tells a similar story, with households sitting on a phenomenal warchest of money.

So long story short, households are flush.

What they go and do with this money is an open question. They might keep saving it. They might go and spend it.

Or, they might realise that they’re sitting on a house deposit now, and look to invest it.

And why wouldn’t they invest it?

Right now, with record low interest rates, Australian’s interest payments, as a percent of disposable income, has fallen to the lowest level in 25 years!

So put that together and you have households sitting in a powerful position.

They’re sitting on a massive warchest of money, while the cost of borrowing, both in absolute terms but also in relation to their disposable income, has almost never been lower.

To me, that points to massive pent-up demand for housing assets.

And it’s this demand that will be one of the primary drivers of the Roaring 20s – the boom that will kick of tentatively in the first half of 2021, but with a vengeance in the second half of 2021 and beyond.

To your success,
Dymphna Boholt

 

[1970crow]

I’ve heard Tulip bulbs are the new Bitcoin.

Funeral services is one of only two shares I bought that are still down. Should have been boom time, bloody gumment.

 

[mistylake]

Funeral services is one of only two shares I bought that are still down. Should have been boom time, bloody gumment.

You’d think it would be guaranteed but maybe You should have invested in large cardboard box futures instead.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

This Dymphena Boholt is pretty clued in on real estate. I’ve followed her stuff been to seminars etc. for 20 years.
This in my email today.


The Roaring 20s will be thanks to this


What will households do with their warchest of money?

Hi ,

Today, I’m going to show you what I think will be the primary driver of the boom in 2021 and beyond.

What I’m going to show you is that households have actually come out of 2020 sitting on a massive warchest of money.

Massive.

I don’t think anyone saw this coming.

And I know a lot of people won’t believe it. For a lot of people, COVID has been incredibly tough. People have lost their jobs. Businesses have closed.

For many individuals, it’s been challenging to say the least.

However, while that’s true for many individuals, when you look at the Australian household sector overall, household incomes have actually gone up!

I know, right? Who would have thought?

Basically, it looks like the government may have over-cooked things with its stimulus payments.

They gave away too much money.

Now I’m not saying that’s a bad thing. JobKeeper and the JobSeeker Supplement helped underwrite confidence in the economy when things were at their darkest. Who knows what things would have looked like without them.

But with the benefit of hindsight, they have had the accidental effect of juicing household incomes.

And that’s because wage and salary income held up much better than expected:

This comes from CBA’s internal data, and it shows that after modest falls in income between March and July, salary income actually started growing at a decent clip, and by the end of the year, was getting back to its long run average of 4% a year.

And while wage income held up better than expected, government support payments came in hot. That’s the red bars on this chart, again from CBA:

So what that shows, when you put them together, is that pre-Covid, household income was growing at you usual 3-4%, and by year end, it was growing at 7-8%.

That’s a big difference!

This income boom was evident in the September quarter national accounts. Household disposable income grew about 4% in the both the June and September quarters – that’s an annual clip of around 14%! You can see the impact of government payments – the orange bars – in this chart here.

Households took that income and went on a spending spree, jumping up over 10% in the quarter in most states.

However, even with a spending spree in full effect, households were so flush that they were still able to put a sizeable bit of money away, and the savings ratio boomed!

The CBA savings indicator – which is more timely and measures cash in their deposit accounts – tells a similar story, with households sitting on a phenomenal warchest of money.

So long story short, households are flush.

What they go and do with this money is an open question. They might keep saving it. They might go and spend it.

Or, they might realise that they’re sitting on a house deposit now, and look to invest it.

And why wouldn’t they invest it?

Right now, with record low interest rates, Australian’s interest payments, as a percent of disposable income, has fallen to the lowest level in 25 years!

So put that together and you have households sitting in a powerful position.

They’re sitting on a massive warchest of money, while the cost of borrowing, both in absolute terms but also in relation to their disposable income, has almost never been lower.

To me, that points to massive pent-up demand for housing assets.

And it’s this demand that will be one of the primary drivers of the Roaring 20s – the boom that will kick of tentatively in the first half of 2021, but with a vengeance in the second half of 2021 and beyond.

To your success,
Dymphna Boholt

Thanks for the post. Not sure I really want to invest in more real estate. I think I'll be looking at overseas investments. This country is looking at a brutal few years. You calling it the roaring 20's is filling me with anxiety btw.

 

[mistylake]

Thanks for the post. Not sure I really want to invest in more real estate. I think I'll be looking at overseas investments. This country is looking at a brutal few years. You calling it the roaring 20's is filling me with anxiety btw.

It’s all her Moogle. I don’t necessarily agree either. I listened to an all day zoom seminar about this a while ago. She’s got her reasons to think what she thinks and way more time than me to look into it.
One thing I’ll agree with is when the government prints extra money (probably 400 Billion when all is done) it has to go somewhere and it usually ends up in real estate.

 

[Coopers]

Apparently when no deal brexit occurs, it's going to fubar the pound and the euro.

Everyone's moving to bitcoin!

Don't take my advice though, my avatar is an angry Chiahuahua

I'd just like to point out my prescience.

May not actually be Brexit related, but BIIIIITCOOOOIIIIN