ID 2010 Grand Final

western royboy

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Thread starter #1
Still one heat to go but is this potentially the most boring final in history.

Personally, I think there are only two horses that can win the final. Monkey King clearly then Washakie then daylight.

Bondy has to draw to lead but will get pressure if he does and Smoken Up soes not appear at his best as is Changeover. Blackie cannot sit in the chair and win IMO but I will tear up if did.

Bit of a dud series, too many horses across only two nights on a postage stamp and a provincial track. Never again.

Hope the final surprises me.
 

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#2
Still one heat to go but is this potentially the most boring final in history.

Personally, I think there are only two horses that can win the final. Monkey King clearly then Washakie then daylight.

Bondy has to draw to lead but will get pressure if he does and Smoken Up soes not appear at his best as is Changeover. Blackie cannot sit in the chair and win IMO but I will tear up if did.

Bit of a dud series, too many horses across only two nights on a postage stamp and a provincial track. Never again.

Hope the final surprises me.
You might have gone a bit early on that one.
 

western royboy

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Thread starter #4
Yeah, I might have gone a bit early, possibly the first three heats at Newcastle were so terrible that it clouded my judgement. I'm on Washakie, have been since before the series so I have to stick fat but Monkey King looks awesome.
 

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#5
Still one heat to go but is this potentially the most boring final in history.

Personally, I think there are only two horses that can win the final. Monkey King clearly then Washakie then daylight.

Bondy has to draw to lead but will get pressure if he does and Smoken Up soes not appear at his best as is Changeover. Blackie cannot sit in the chair and win IMO but I will tear up if did.

Bit of a dud series, too many horses across only two nights on a postage stamp and a provincial track. Never again.

Hope the final surprises me.
Heats have been ordinary at best. But gee they've been great betting races. For example, last night I got the trifecta and first 4 straight out in Blackies race for $5 each.$650 pick up for a $10 outlay. Not bad in my book. Done it a couple of times this series. I'm on Monkey King for the final @ $5.50 for a bit, but may have something on Western Cam. Very impressed with his last 2 runs.
 

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#7
So glad I got on Monkey King at 6.00 about a month ago, look super value after that run last night.

As the hosts said last night, if MK draws 1-4, he may well start 1.50 or shorter, which would be massive for an ID final.

Blacks a Fake run amazed me to no end, sat in the death for most of the race and still won easily, freakish horse that thing is, and it just keeps going, will run top 3 next week, and could win if it draws well and MK doesn't.

The "racing fan" in me hopes MK draws poorly, but the "betting man" in me hopes he draws 1-5.:)
 

western royboy

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Thread starter #9
Damn!!! Oh well. Monkey King into Western Cam. Gotta be at least 6/1 doesn't it? May have a little on Atomic Ark @ 41/1 as well.
Western Cam is the unlucky horse of the series, badly held up last week for 6th and a great run last night. Both he and Sammy Maguire deserve to be in the final ahead of Baileys Dream and Changeover but what can you do.

If you can 6/1 about that double get some for me as well.

I can't see anyone beating Monkey King
 
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#10
Did you happen to miss Baileys Dream run last Friday? Of the beaten brigade was certaintly the run of the night.
Yes Western Cam and Sammy got mightily unluckly (add Tanabi Bromac) but you can hardly say they deserve a spot in the field more than the horses who got their, especially Bailey imo.
 

western royboy

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Thread starter #11
Did you happen to miss Baileys Dream run last Friday? Of the beaten brigade was certaintly the run of the night.
Yes Western Cam and Sammy got mightily unluckly (add Tanabi Bromac) but you can hardly say they deserve a spot in the field more than the horses who got their, especially Bailey imo.
Huge run first week, no question but disappointing this week. Changeover has had two soft trips both nights and struggled into the final. On exposed form he just can't win. Interesting to see if we get any team driving from the Small / Hill / Dixon-Rassmussen camps this week.
 

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#12
I agree Changeover has no winning chance in the final, even if he leads I dont think he can win. But with the ommision of Western Cam, Tanabi Bromac, Sammy Maguire, Pembrook Benny was another unlucky one, it all adds to the consolation - this is the best consolation we have had for a while!
Rasmussen wont team drive. Had the perfect oppurtunity last year with I Am Sam in the death seat (his style of racing) and he gave it up to Auckland Reactor without a fight.
Small would be the prime candidate, but he doesnt have the class of horse to pull it off - if he tried to team drive it would ruin one or two others chances but realy set it up for someone else.
I dont think the Hill stable would try it. They believe Monkey is the best - he has proven he can win big group ones on his merits.
 

western royboy

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Thread starter #13
Yes I have definately gone the early crow here and the draw for the final has delivered a doozy.

2300 METRES MOBILE START
Form Horse Trainer Other Eng. Driver Class Hcp
1 11921 WASHAKIE NZ J P McCarthy John McCarthy C22 M16 FR1
2 81023 OUR AWESOME ARMBRO NZ G C Small David Butcher C18 M11 FR2
3 11111 BLACKS A FAKE N C Rasmussen Natalie Rasmussen C47 M37 FR3
4 24213 ATOMIC ARK N C Rasmussen Natalie Rasmussen C18 M13 FR4
5 4s111 MONKEY KING NZ B R Hill Ricky May C25 M19 FR5
6 3s334 BAILEYS DREAM NZ B R Hill Ricky May C19 M13 FR6
7 21124 CHANGEOVER NZ G C Small David Butcher C26 M20 FR7
8 s1111 BONDY NZ D J Butt David Butt C22 M16 FR8
9 22042 MR FEELGOOD USA T G Butt Anthony Butt C22 M17 FR9
10 22732 SMOKEN UP NZ L J Justice Lance Justice C25 M20 FR10
11 15343 SAMMY MAGUIRE NZ (Em 1) G A Lang Menangl 07/03/2010 Gavin Lang C13 M3 FR-
12 12962 BE GOOD JOHNNY (Em 2) J P McCarthy Menangl 07/03/2010 John McCarthy C28 M23 FR-


My inital thoughts are that it being over 2300 on the big track, Monkey King is the only horse with options. Blackie must go forward and try and head off Washakie at the start, not sure he can do that but I'm sure Nat will have a go. Awesome Armbro will dive to the pegs, Atomic Ark needs to dive Blackie's back, Monkey King - Does he blast out our just come out and sit off them? The biggest question. Baileys Dream, Changeover and Mr Feelgood can't win blasting out, leaving Bondy and everyone's favourite fancy pants Lance going forward.

Awesome Armbro may be the value, I always used to try and find the horse three pegs in the big races.

Interest has been restored.
 
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#15
After last years little debarcle on bigfooty I have checked harnes.org and this is the real barrier draw.

Agreed WR the draw has certainly spiced things up a little, interesting how the 3 favs prior to the barrier draw will definately stay that way now that they have all drawn well. Washakie at 17's a month ago looks massive value now. Also the roughies I was gunna get on in the pre draw market (Smoken Up 15s, Bondy 10's, Changeover 21's) now look unders. Gunna be there, gunna be great
 

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#16
After seeing the draw, I firmly believe this race may be won and/or lost in the first 500m.

Washakie and Monkey King will both want to lead, while I believe Nat Rus on BAF will want either the death or 1 out 1 back.

I seriously can't see anything winning outside of these 3 horses, unless they basically "go nuts" in front early.

MK showed in the miracle mile and since how quick his closing sectionals can be, if he gets the lead, RACE OVER, if not, RACE IN THREE.
 

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#17
I don't think Monkey King will lead. I think there will be too much heat on up front and he will take the sit. As someone in another thread mentioned before it wouldn't surprise me to see some team driving tactics with Bailey's Dream and Monkey King. Bailey's Dream showed it can do it tough by going three wide the trip in the first heat. This gives connections the perfect excuse to push forward and drill either Washakie or Blackie. Or he could be used to give Monkey King a 3 wide cart up into the race, or cover if Monkey King is in the death. Either way Monkey King has a massive advantage by having Bailey's Dream in the race.

As matty said the first 500 metres will be very interesting!
 
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#18
After last years little debarcle on bigfooty I have checked harnes.org and this is the real barrier draw.

Agreed WR the draw has certainly spiced things up a little, interesting how the 3 favs prior to the barrier draw will definately stay that way now that they have all drawn well. Washakie at 17's a month ago looks massive value now. Also the roughies I was gunna get on in the pre draw market (Smoken Up 15s, Bondy 10's, Changeover 21's) now look unders. Gunna be there, gunna be great
Last year's little debacle won me a small fortune! :D

My early thoughts are that Blacky will work his way to the front. McCarthy would have lost his mind to try and not take a sit on the champ as Washakie can't win if he has Blacky grinding outside him.

There is no way Monkey will be driven aggressively as it is impossible for him to get ahead of Blacky after the start.

The only question is: Does Dixon come out all gun blazing in an attempt to cross Washakie, planting Washakie 3 pegs once Atomic Ark hands up to Blacky?

We know Lance will push forward to the death. The only two tough stayers that will want to pour any pressure on are Blacky and Smoken Up, so the race will be run as fast or as slow as Nat and Lance wish to go. Every other horse in the race likes to be driven sit-sprint (apart from Bondy but from the draw he will have to be driven quietly).

Blacky for mine...an each-way bet to nothing. Can't see him missing a place and will dictate once he finds the front soon after the start off Washakie. He is capable of running a 27 second flat last quarter off any pace, so Monkey will have to smash the clock over the last 400 to run him down. Monkey obviously the danger.
 

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#19
I think everyone is forgetting about Our Awesome Armbro. I think he holds the key to the start. He can find the lead first from 2, and in the process bury Washakie 3 back when Blackie rolls to the front. Expect Smokin Up to run a huge race. But still run 2nd to the King! It would not surprise me if Baily's Dream 'helps' Monkey King during the race, because they are owned by the same connections. Makes sense! Can see them going 1.54. I'd be interested to see everyones speed map and selections.
 

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#20
I will be staggered if Monkey King is driven aggressively at the start. They simply have no need to, there will be enough speed in the race as is and he's the best sit-sprinter in the race.

I don't like Washakie if he holds the lead. Blackie will just grind away at him from the death (as will Smoken Up if Lance gets up there).

Think Blackie's a good thing to run a place but keep coming back to the Monkey.

Atomic Ark and Our Awesome Armbro add some spice to the race with their draws. Both gave very good gate-speed but both can't win. What do they do at the start?

Interesting race but MK gets the money I reckon.
 
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#21
As if Washakie is going to get crossed. Only Blacks A Fake will cross him and only if Johnny lets him. Look at last years final, Washakie drew a half length clear at the start.

Washakie has put up two of the most amazing wins in years this season, both times from the chair SMASHING 2 gun leaders. He won't know himself in front!!

Blacks A Fake to chair and won't be handing up and won't put the speed on either which means who's going to murder there horse 3 wide to make it a truely run race?? Smoken Up or Baileys Dream? lol bring it on, they'll both be gone about 800m out!!

Atomic Ark will be great odds from that draw. Been zooming home in his races and will get every possible from the 1-1 and will more then definately get out and have a final shot at them.

Can't leave out Monkey King though!! What a horse!! love him!!

My predicted finishing order.

Washakie
Atomic Ark
Blacks A Fake
Monkey King
 

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#22
I agree with DM, Washakie won't be crossed. It is a matter of whether he hands up or not. Go back to his WA Cup win where he went around the field to find the front and still held out a fast finishing Imthemightyquinn. His two heat runs have been very impressive although he didn't do the times that Black did in the death at Newcastle on Saturday. He looks very hard to beat from barrier 1!
 

western royboy

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Thread starter #23
I too am agreeing with DM although some slight changes.

I think they will settle as follows;

Washakie
Our Awesome Armbro ,Blacks A Fake
Changeover ,Atomic Ark
Bondy ,Monkey King,
,Baileys Dream
,Smoken Up
,Mr Feelood

The start is obviously crucial but over 2300, I can't see anyone handing up. I can recall plenty of drivers in ID Finals ruing handing up after the event. There will be none of that.

Lance can't blast and win but he might be able to move 3 wide from the bell and is not without a chance. His best bet is to go flat out from that point. Mr Feelgood will most likeley get his back. thus we could have;

Washakie, Blacks A Fake, Smoken Up
Our Awesome Armbro,Atomic Ark,Mr Feelgood
Changeover, Monkey King, Baileys Dream
Bondy

So what does Ricky May do? Does he have to go in front of Lance or wait for the run that may never come.

Just my hypothetical thoughts, Monkey King might just blast out and that could be it.


For the record

Washakie (go you good thing)
Monkey King
Our Awesome Armbro
Blacks A Fake
 
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#24
Last year's little debacle won me a small fortune! :D

Ha ha yeah didn't that backfire for whoever posted that. Still shaterred that Blacky lost that one.

The way I see it Washakie leads no matter what, Macarthey said before the WA Pacing that he is not there to get 4 pack the pegs and rely on luck, Washakie is twice as good a horse when he leads or death seats (re: Truer) and I really think he will lead to matter what.

Our Awesome Armbro would be crazy not to take the sit which leaves Blacks a Fake and Atomic Ark 1-1 and outside Washakie. I reckon Bondy and Changeover go forward because they can't win from the back, Bondy gives cover to whoever is in the death and Changeover is stuck 3 wide.

That leaves Monkey King, Baileys Dream, Smoken Up and Mr Feelgood. Can't see Baileys Dream doing anything, Smoken Up should lead the 3 wide charge and I expect Mr Feelgood to have its back and Monkey King to charge home from the back too.

Obviously I will get crucified for a few of these suggestions but thats just my opinion. I reckon they will go about a 1.53 1.54 mile rate and the winner will come from the back, I think it will probably be Monkey King because his final split is potentially the quickest but my value pick is Mr Feelgood.
 

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#25
Anyone else interested in studying the whole meeting. It is a great card of racing with the 3yo Pacing Gold Finals on as well as the Trotters Mile and a of course the M0-M1 and M2 finals.

I’ll post up my selections and go into a bit more detail later when I get some time.

Race 1: 11 ARTESIAN BOY
Looks an interesting race with a host of chances. I really liked the run of Artesian Boy last start. If either Ben Junior or Davey J were starting in this race they would be very short priced favourites. In that race he got an easy run sitting behind the leader but he finished the race very strongly and would have finished a lot closer if he got out earlier. 5 ON ANY DAY will start favourite and but he races tomorrow night so I will watch that race to get a gauge on how he will go here. 1 BLUE MAHONEY is a horse that will get a soft run from the pole and can run a place.

Race 2: 2 SHEEZALLATTITUDE
Well she does have attitude. She doesn’t like to pace. If she paces I think she will win. Drawn well and has the open Menangle to help her get around. Will be interesting to see if she or 8 LEILANI LOMBO start favourite. 8 LEILANI LOMBO was an impressive winner last start and will be very hard to beat. I liked the first start of 10 DREAM LA VITA. Was impressive winning at Kilmore albeit in slow time. Looked very green on the day and will appreciate the Menangle track.

Race 3: 11 ROCKNROLLA
Race 4: 1 PACIFIC CHARM
Race 5: 3 SUNDONS GIFT NZ
Race 6: 9 MAJOR BRONSKI
Race 7: 2 TANABI BROMAC
Race 8: 1 WASHAKIE
Race 9: 3 ROCKETS REJECT
Race 10: 8 BEN JUNIOR
 
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