Ideal ladder position

kendrick

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So I keep looking at the ladder and our percentage etc... Plus the games of the other top 3. Apart from the worry of holding onto a top 4 spot..

We ideally want to be playing our first final in Melbourne..

Do we think Cats will maintain top spot and we hold onto 4th..

3rd is a horrible scenario as would be a trip to the gabba or optus..

From those who have done ladder predictors etc..

Is 2nd too much to hope for... Given our percentage and we are a game. Behind the other 3..
 

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harrythetiger

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An interstate week 1 is ok if the cats win week 1 - but I hate trusting other teams and I really don't back the cats so I'd rather play them week 1. Hopefully they knock off BL next week so they lock up 1st, and we can know 4th is the place to be.
 

Roksman

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This thread should just be called "machinations".... Because you're gonna hear that word from Barrett at nauseom this week.

But seriously, there are so many machinations that can play out lol. Gonna be a crazy weekend.

Ideally we want Geelong to beat Brisbane and Adelaide to beat Collingwood as this gives us a genuine crack at 2nd spot and then a bail out option of 4th should things not work out.
 

gavaniacono

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An interstate week 1 is ok if the cats win week 1 - but I hate trusting other teams and I really don't back the cats so I'd rather play them week 1. Hopefully they knock off BL next week so they lock up 1st, and we can know 4th is the place to be.
I reckon eagles and pies win 2, tiges, lions, cats 1 each. Poor % will come home to roost.

I hope we can win the last 2 though obviously, but our form hasn't convinced me we are a match for the Eagles.

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Tiger Toffee

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I reckon eagles and pies win 2, tiges, lions, cats 1 each. Poor % will come home to roost.

I hope we can win the last 2 though obviously, but our form hasn't convinced me we are a match for the Eagles.

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LOL 7 wins on the trot not convincing enough for you, but the pies after beating 18th and 17th in less than convincing fashion are going to win 2.
 

TigerImposter

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Go to WA the first week is the safest option if we finish third which I believe is most likely. Lions will need to drop last two games which is highly possible. However we will need to win our last two games which imo will depend on who’s available for selection.
I think if we beat the Eagles then Brisbane will be no issue and we finish second if the Eagles don’t trounce the Hawks last round in WA. Tipped us to win the flag and I still think we can do it from outside the top four even if we mess up next week.
If we win one of our last two and Adelaide beat Collingwood this round in SA then fourth is the go and it’s hello Geelong . This will be a lot of fun as they will start all their sulking.
 
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TigerImposter

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LOL 7 wins on the trot not convincing enough for you, but the pies after beating 18th and 17th in less than convincing fashion are going to win 2.
It’s an opinion so ease up. If you were always right we would have won the last nine flags.😇 It would actually be interesting to see what the probabilities are to where we’re we are most likely to finish. I think winning one game would be the highest probability and losing both the lowest. I’m not sure if it would be the odds of flipping two coins where they’re
25% for HH or TT
And
50% HT.
Where a head is a win and Tail is a loss.

I reckon the probability of us beating the Eagles is 50% and beating the Lions is 80%. So working with these numbers

HH =40%
HT=50%
TT=10%
So going by this we have a 90% chance of winning at least one game , but too close to call on winning both.
 

The Goon

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It’s an opinion so ease up. If you were always right we would have won the last nine flags. It would actually be interesting to see what the probabilities are to where we’re we are most likely to finish. I think winning one game would be the highest probability and losing both the lowest. I’m not sure if it would be the odds of flipping two coins where they’re
25% for HH or TT
And
50% HT.
Where a head is a win and Tail is a loss.

I reckon the probability of us beating the Eagles is 50% and beating the Lions is 80%. So working with these numbers

HH =40%
HT=50%
TT=10%
So going by this we have a 90% chance of winning at least one game , but too close to call on winning both.
The squiggle shows the odds of us finishing in various spots. Still more likely to finish in the top 4 than out of it.


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TigerImposter

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The squiggle shows the odds of us finishing in various spots. Still more likely to finish in the top 4 than out of it.


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Link please as it would be interesting what the odds are. Yes I said 90% chance of winning at least one game which would just about do it. Collingwood v Crows will decide it if we only win one game. Or we have to belt Brisbane.
 
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aislegi

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as long as we avoid WCE at Optus I'm happy, that place will be a cauldron and i don't fancy our chances, haven't played well against WCE in recent times
I wouldn't mind seeing us play Eagles in Perth in the first week because we would have nothing to lose and, if we did lose, the rematch would be in the Grand Final and would be in Melbourne
 

Phar Ace

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If we finish fifth it's because we're not good enough
Except if there is a lucky kick in both matches - we could lose those two and still be good enough. The Eagles this week is the game we should fear the most. Granted we due to lose one against the Lions, what are we, 11 on the trot, but it should get to 12 on the MCG. These quirky things - bet we then have to play them again in a Qualifying Final ala North in the Elimination. Murphy and his ******* laws!
 

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